288 Comments

I was worried that Draymond couldn't reach Laurie's face, then I remembered he's got that long wingspan. Phew! That could have been awkward.

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Bronny more fouls than points and -22 in 20 min. Did ever JW have such an abysmal performance?

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Wiseman era la seconda scelta assoluta. Bronny la 55. Credo tra l'altro che tra lotteria, primo giro e secondo giro ci siano anche delle belle differenze di ingaggio

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Sì, ma almeno JW il fisico ce l'aveva. Bronny mi sa che non è buono nemmeno per la FIBA

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I posted this on a past thread but doubt it was seen by many. Just my view of this Markkanen sitrep.

I see no deal even close with Utah. If any of the rumors of hoopshype are true about Utah's demands, fugettaboudit. With the rise of Podz and JK, along with the new riders we got, the Warriors would be pushing in their hand with a make or brake move. This doesn't seem to be a Lacob move. We know our guys will be competitive, why weaken the team for years to come with an all or nothing move? They don't need to do it. Podz and JK combined should score more points than Lauri and we retain flexibility for our rotations. Who thinks I'm wrong?

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You’re on the level, sir

I’m officially off the Lauri train myself. Ainge is just messin around w everyone anyway…he’s just an attention wh0re! 😂

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If the Dubs make a deal anywhere close to what Ainge is looking for, Joe Lacob ain't Joe Lacob. From the moment Durant signed with the Dubs, there has been an arms race. Everyone else spent the farm to put together super-teams. (I know, you could go back to LeBron in MIA, but I'm ruling all of his teams out) How did it work out for all those teams? How do the Clippers look? How about Phoenix? Brooklyn tried. Go down the list and it doesn't look pretty. Who has won Chips? GSW, DEN, MIL, BOS ... home grown. Who is challenging? OKC, MIN, CLE, IND, etc ... home grown. Taking care of your own yard is always a more sure thing than pining over your neighbor's lawn. Everyone wants the quick fix, but there is no quick fix because its all imagination. What LM would look like on the Warriors is pure speculation that tends to disregard what the Warriors would look like without 'x' number of players and future picks.

I can't believe Joe Lacob would rubber stamp such a speculative deal.

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Milwaukee traded the farm for Jrue. The title before that was the Lakers who traded the farm for AD. Boston did some pretty big trades for Jrue, White, and KP, combining for around 4 total FRP. I notice you didn't include DAL (who traded for Kyrie) or NYK (who traded for OG, and Mikal) in your list of contenders.

Going all in doesn't guarantee titles of course, nothing does. But, I disagree with this thesis a ton.

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Jul 16·edited Jul 16

Minny did a Mega trade with Ainge, but that caveat aside I agree with your post.

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Realistically I don't think it makes sense for the Jazz to trade Lauri before a pay raise + extension (unless given a ridiculous offer). Jazz have crazy cap room this year and no one to spend it on -- perfect scenario to negotiate a deal to give Lauri more this year (+20m), but less over the next 4 years (-20m) to make his contract an even more valuable trade piece in the future. Then next off-season he is on a 4 year cost-controlled contract, and should garner just as much interest or more if the Jazz want to deal him.

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Then why dangle him at all? Theres obviously something else there

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I think Ainge is willing to trade him, and very well may sometime in the next 1-2 years. But he isn't in a rush, and Lauri's value may only increase after he is locked in for more years.

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Jul 16·edited Jul 16

I expect he'll cost them a lot more than that. He is making $18M now. But he can renegotiate and extend for up to $200M/5 yrs now and up to $250M/5 yrs in 2025 or test free agency in 2025. Now, he might not get that max deal but he'll get a lot more than $20M. Think $30M+ and going up, not down.

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No I mean +20m for this year.. his contract this year is 18m, but Jazz have cap room to up that to 40m+ this year. The only incentive to do that, for the Jazz, is if they then can subtract 5m+ per year for future years. So bump up his pay this year +20m (to $38-40m total) and sign to an extension that is 40m average instead of 45m for example.

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I am not totally clear about how it works but I read an article (which I cannot find now, doggone it) that I THINK said they have to not only renegotiate but extend to give him $40M. If it's just renegotiation for this year, they can't pay him more than $25.2M, if I read right. I may have that wrong. (Perks? EA?) Honestly it's hard enough trying to keep our own players' situations straight!

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Jul 16·edited Jul 16

I dont purport to know what every GM/league executive thinks about our players but im pretty sure Moody and picks isn’t the deal sealer some EDIT* (people) seem to think Danny Ainge should settle for. Moody has limited trade value and is up for an extension. So what one would really be advocating for is picks + young marginal role player + salary filler for LM. And honestly for me I’d rather try to keep Moody, give up Pods and see if Utah bites on taking less picks back BUT I don’t see Utah feeling the same way. I think Utah will not settle for less than max draft compensation and the compromise will have to be that we keep JK and give up Pods. And I also think MDJ has known this from the start

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I can't imagine the Dubs throwing Podz away, especially over Moody. Podz impacts the game as a rookie. Moody's never impacted the game and can hardly find playing time here. I'm not advocating for trading Moody but I'd much rather see him in a deal than Podz. But all the deals I've read about stink for us, and why would Utah get rid of one of their stars to take on all of our castaways? This whole thing stinks............

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I'm increasingly hoping MDJ thanks Ainge for the pleasant chats, hangs up the phone, and walks away from an LM deal. He's not worth the price. If we go into the season with what we have (maybe a change or two in 2 ways, e.g., Plowden) and see if there are any deals at the trade deadline, so be it.

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Jul 16·edited Jul 16

One thing that I’ve heard is that the warriors’ picks are perceived to be pretty valuable because they’re expected to be a very bad team/very good picks after Steph declines/retires. This isn’t a situation where it’s 5 picks/swaps all expected to be in the mid 20s, it could easily be 5 picks/swaps with most of them in the top 10. And the more good young players that Ainge can get in the deal, the worse the warriors will be in the future, and the more value the picks have.

I really do think that many picks/swaps from a possibly/probably bad team do have real value. I’m not claiming they’re a “godfather” offer, but I certainly wouldn’t give them up for LM.

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I think there is 1 thing no one really talked about just assuming we'll be bad post Steph. Is that when Steph and Dray is off the books I assume we'll only have JK and Lauri on Biggers deals, depending which direction Warriors want to go they can sign some fans probably close to the max. That might make us good enough where the swaps won't hurt as much.

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Lacob has said the team will never bottom out as long as he is in charge. We have enough talent now to make noise and with the proper guidance, MDJ, we may be able to capture another ring within 10 years. Just joking...........2-3years after Steph takes over from Trump.

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I wouldn’t either but again as I responded to DFIB, some of us are valuing said picks against the expected complete downfall of the franchise post Steph. Others think that the expected leap of JK into all-stardom plus LMs late Prime should be enough to keep us highly competitive well past 2031 thus rendering those picks almost inconsequential

Moody on the other hand well there’s enough tape for pretty much any GM to form an assessment on and we can put some sort of more concrete value as a trade prospect. Like I said above, I dont purport to know what every GM is thinking but I suspect he holds little value as a stand-alone trade piece.

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Those who think JK is going to turn into a Lebron are smoking some weird shit. JK is not a generational player and neither is Lauri. Too bad we couldn't get Stephon Castle. He could have been our post-Steph go to player to build around. It will be interesting to see what Pop does with his group and whether he still has the ability to create another dynasty. It's not easy.

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Yup, I agree that Moody isn’t a highly valued centerpiece of a trade.

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Jul 16·edited Jul 16

Yeah, Moody is fine, and probably plenty of GMs believe the Warriors have under utilized him, But even those GMs would value him equal to the ~25th pick in trade value.

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let’s not forget Markkanen is on an expiring contract

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Siakam too was on expiring contract in February

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Any block buster deal will have to include a long term commitment from Lauri.

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Warriors are very aware of this

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and any deal that includes a long term commitment from Lauri will have to take his wishes into account, and I doubt he would want his new team to go scorched earth to acquire him.

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Better back up the Brinks truck then because he'll cost a mint if he has to commit now.

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> Moody and picks isn’t the deal sealer some of you seem to think Danny Ainge should settle for.

Receipts please… I don’t think I’ve seen anybody suggest that our current offer is a great deal for Ainge… it may very well be the best offer he’s seen, and the best offer he’s gonna get before 8/6. Doesn’t mean he has to like it… also doesn’t mean the Warriors have to just add assets to the offer just to close a deal… if they include Moody and Podz or Kuminga AND GP2 or Loon, we got a bit of a roster issue that we can’t just readily deal with at this point of free agency. We’d have 12 guys rostered with <$1M left under the apron for one, and some gaps in the rotation too.

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Ok let me put it this way:

And im piggybacking a bit off Hammystyles previous comment so credit where credit is due BUT if (assuming Ainge leaked this through Shams), the Warriors have stood firm on Moody + Salary Filler + 2 firsts + 2 Swaps for LM and then in the same report Shams references Ainge wanting this plus JK AND Podz Plus pretty much all the warriors picks and swaps into 2031 then why are we so hyper focused on the supposed ridiculousness of Ainges counteroffer and not on the Warriors standing firm with their own offer. If what the Warriors are offering is true and im Ainge I wouldn’t even entertain the seriousness of any counteroffer

But that’s been my whole point in today’s thread. These are just negotiations. Both sides are ridiculous in their offers and there is a middle ground to be had and pretty much agreed on. The rest is just postering for each side to try to extract a bit here or there from the other side.

Also to give credit where credit is due, I’ll give Sleepy credit in mentioning San Antonio. That’s who Ainge wants to do business with IMO and is hoping that they jump into the fray with their AtL picks. If that happens then I don’t think there is any middle ground with the Warriors that could make a deal happen.

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I don't see Pop being that stupid. He's already driving a loaded bus and doesn't need Markkanen or the complications ensuing.

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Yeah, it's all posturing and such... now, where do you get the idea that others think Moody and picks is some deal sealer? I've never seen it, suggested you provide some receipts on that, and you haven't. So I assume nobody's made that argument.

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Check out Hoopshype for the supposed rumored deals.

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Ok edited above comment but if you’re so hyper focused on receipts I have a few ready to go from my twitter feed alone. My original point still stands and continues to stand. Many folks commenting on this specific site state that what Danny Ainge is asking for is ‘unserious’ without mere mention of what the Warriors are offering themselves for LM currently. If I’m just a casual nba fan i would consider the Warriors offer way more unserious than what Danny Ainge wants. Heck as a Warriors fan i consider what Danny ainge is purportedly wanting more justifiable than Moody plus picks

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I don't pay attention to twitter or reddit... plenty of crazy and know-nothings there... not worth my time discussing them and their opinions. When you post on this blog and write things like "some of you", I will interpret that you are referring to some of us here on this blog. However, if you write things like "some folks on twitter", I will more accurately infer that you are referring to folks on twitter.

> Heck as a Warriors fan i consider what Danny ainge is purportedly wanting more justifiable than Moody plus picks

If we're talking about 2 unprotected first round picks, 5 unprotected first round pick swaps, and 5 second round picks, I think that's quite a lot of draft capital, especially given that most of these picks would be post-Steph. And the swaps could be structured pretty advantageously for Utah given Utah will have control over their own picks, Minny's, Cleveland's, and LA's for a few of the upcoming drafts (e.g. in 2027, Utah would get the 4 best of the Jazz, Cavs, Timberwolves, Lakers, and Warriors picks, and the Warriors get the worst of the 5. That's a swap that will provide value unless the Warriors are one of the top 3-4 teams in the year Steph turns 38).

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I have stood firm in this too. I believe there is greater value to those picks than what they appear on paper because I think the Warriors will not be good at all post Steph

Saying all that its very difficult to quantify said value on paper when making or proposing trades. What is easy is involving players and if Moody plus picks is the Warriors initial offer then Danny Ainges counteroffer should be taken as pure negotiations in order to meet into some more workable middle ground.

Thars why i have personally said giving up more than one or two of those picks should be a nonstarter. But on paper, it’s fair to say that giving up multiple picks plus one of Kuminga/Podz should be fair.

What I’ve seen on here is quite a few people saying why would the Warriors want to deal with Danny Ainge at all without even bringing up the Warriors purported

Counteroffer. So yeah it’s not much of a stretch for me that if that’s not being acknowledged then we are more ok with Moody +picks being more of a fair offer than Podz/Moody/Kuminga + picks would be.

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If you’re commenting on twitter posts and comments, then of course that’s an entirely different story. I’ve seen em on Reddit too. I come on here for my realism on Warriors happenings for a reason.

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Jul 16·edited Jul 16

Wording came

Off wrong. Reply to my other reply so I can get clarification and then I’ll reply in kind

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Is there a non-Kuminga+Podz offer that Ainge would take?

Given the Warrior’s offer it really seems like they are not actually serious about getting LM, but rather they are proving to Steph and Dray that there is no offer they could make with picks and filler that would get another stud.

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And it's not just for show... Steph knows that trading away all the young players and picks for Markkanen won't alone turn his team into a championship contender. The Warriors need another player to "pop". Steph + Dray + Markkanen + Prime Wiggins with Melton/Anderson/Hield off the bench makes a heck of a core... but you need a Kuminga/Podz/Moody/TJD that takes a real star turn to complement that, and you can't get to the promised land if you trade away all of those young guys and don't have anybody left that's even potentially ready to take a star turn.

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Well, maybe this summer. If and when JK and Podz hit that next level, their value is greatly improved going into the FA frenzy next summer.

I’m more leaning that way anyway. Let’s see what we’ve first before putting all of our eggs in one (semi broken) basket

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Who here has said that Ainge is being greedy for not taking that deal? The middle ground will be either JK or Podz in the deal. If Ainge needs all 3 players control of our 1st rounders for the next 5 years to make the trade happen, then that’s gripe here…because Mike won’t do that.

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So I’m confused because below you have said that you’d only do LM if it’s Moody plus requisite picks or one of Kuminga/Podz and just one first round pick.

So are you saying that that’s what YOU would want. Or are you saying that any of the above two scenarios you suggested should be perceived as a fair offer by Ainge?

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Bronny James is 6/30 overall and 0/15 from 3 in summer league so far...

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You should post this on the Laker blog.

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Picking up where he left off.

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We have two podz and moody replacements in Melton and plowden, I actually like plowden as a prospect more then moody. Send podz moody a pick or 2 n let's win another chip. Curry Wiggins Lauri kuminga green is a devastating playoff lineup.

Imagine that lineup if green continues to shoot well

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Bridges brought in 5 picks. Let’s say Podz counts as 1 or 2, Moody is filler, that’s 3-4 more picks just to equal Bridges. And Danny doesn’t do less unless you’re the Lakers.

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Plowden is 25 and has played 0 NBA games. Moody is 21. I think you may be overrating a few summer league games.

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Plowden has also proven he can shoot through multiple seasons in the g league at 39%. Hes bigger then moody and has more athleticism

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Moody looks bigger than Plowden to me (6-6 with a 7-1 wingspan at age 19). He also has put up over 29 pts per 36 on over .600 TS in the G-League, at age 19-20.

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Like, Garuba was 13.6/11 and shot 40.6% from 3 in the G-League last year and can't sniff an NBA contract. Plowden was 50th in the G-League in 3Pt%.

I hope he's a diamond in the rough, I truly do, but the odds are incredibly high that he never plays for the Warriors, and if he does, that he'll never contribute anything. There is no universe where he's a better prospect than Moody, who at 21 is already a league-average wing.

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Your logic doesn't hold up because you are assuming that the NBA is always the ultimate arbiter of talent. Many mistakes and oversights are made by many teams starting with their draft choices and preferences for developing some players over others. Garuba played professionally in Europe and also made a dent in SC. He didn't stick with Houston because they were already committed to other paint players. The Warriors have a particular problem with big men using guys smaller than 6'10" to get the job done. Garuba couldn't find the playing time here because Master Kerr didn't want to play him or was committed to others. Many reasons why players with talent don't alway make NBA teams.

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I think "NBA players are much better than G-league players, so G-league stats are very inflated compared to how they'd fare in the NBA" is a MUCH safer and more likely assumption than "G-league stats don't translate to the NBA because NBA coaches don't use those players well".

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36% from 3 in the NBA >>>>> 39% from 3 in the G-League.

Don't be fooled by guys looking good against other non-NBA players. There are countless examples of dudes lighting up the Summer League and never doing anything in the NBA.

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And we can send TJD, cuz Bolden can hit a 3, right?

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If he didn't get injured yes

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Kuminga shot 43% on corner 3s last year

21-49

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The year before he shot 25-62 on corner 3s

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That's a small enough sample that his actual % could easily be +/- 4% of that. I think he *could* be a good shooter, but I think the jury's still out on it, especially when his 3s so far have tended to be such wide open catch and shoot ones that are higher percentage shots.

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I'll send podz n picks for LM just because I think Melton is better

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And we have Melton for one year. If he plays well, he'll be out of our price range.

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It's a bit different than Donte situation because Melton is on such a higher starting salary. If he does well, Warriors can offer him up to 66m/4 years using non-bird rights (120% of previous salary plus 5% raises up to 4 years in length). Of course if he plays REALLY well, he could still price himself out of that, but Donte himself only got $50m/4, though with rising cap that may be roughly equivalent at the time to the 66m/4.

So I guess in short, if he plays around Donte level for the Dubs, they should have a decent shot to keep him. If he plays above that, he may price himself out.

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Really starting to feel like the final package for LM will be Podz, Moody, Looney, 3 1st rounders, 3 unprotected swaps & 2nd round picks until the end of time

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Which is why it’s destined to fall through forever. Ainge will be stuck with him and his laundry list of injury concerns and we’ll be hitched with two high profile young players that can turn into stars…keep our picks if things go to schyt…oh and Moody 😁

I’m thinking about it in terms of pure value and likelihood of good health…and it’s starting to taste like vinegar

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I’m actually ok with that package going out. Podz or JK. I feel like that’s fair enough for us while Ainge still gets his “win”

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Way too many future draft picks IMO

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Free agent guard Seth Curry has agreed on a one-year deal to return to the Charlotte Hornets

https://x.com/wojespn/status/1813030437482311780

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Hometown! Nice!

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Jul 16·edited Jul 16

1. Vegas over/unders for next season are out! The Warriors are … one of three teams excluded from the list (with Utah and Chicago) pending potential trades. For anyone who thinks the Markkanen chatter is just Dub Nation passing the long offseason, Vegas seems to think it’s more than that.

2. The latest Lowe Post with Kevin Pelton has *another* 20-30 minute deep-dive on the ins and outs of a Markkanen trade for the Warriors (assuming Kuminga plus a bunch of picks going out). Their consensus on whether the Warriors should do it … maybe.

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Jul 16·edited Jul 16

William Hill has Dubs ov/un at 43.5. Which...does seem low, but then again we're so vulnerable to any prolonged Steph injuries

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Vegas is gonna have a tough time setting a line... if the Dubs find a way to do the trade with only giving up Moody, GP2, and hella picks, win total projection probably leaps 5 games or so.

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Betting lines often reflect public perceptions (where the betting $ will come in) more than what the linesmakers actually think about the respective strengths of teams.

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That would be the dream. Then, when steph retired trade lauri for picks back and rebuild! Or keep him if the team is legit

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I’d torn if Moody and JK goes with the picks

Keeping Podz is KEY tho. Mike needs to hold his ground on that

A starting lineup of Steph-Podz-Wigs(good version)-Dray-Lauri would definitely move the Vegas betting needle

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Kawakami mentioned:

And if the Warriors get Markkanen, he fits with either Draymond or Kuminga at the 4. And Markkanen is such a good shooter that it isn’t out of the question that the Warriors could go big across the line with Markkanen, Draymond, Kuminga and Wiggins, with Curry as the only guy under 6-foot-6 in the starting unit.

I think the Warriors really like thinking about that. Which is an example of why they wouldn’t necessarily want to put Kuminga into that deal, either.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5637538/2024/07/15/warriors-offseason-moves-era-stephen-curry/

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Don't really like Lauri with JK at the 4, that's 0 rim protection. It'll have to be jk, Lauri, tjd.

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Jul 16·edited Jul 16

Then I’ll bet MDJ and Lacob are really mulling over putting Podz in the deal…and would it be enough for Utah. Doesn’t sound like it

So this is all seemingly null and void because it’s Ainge, and Mike won’t throw both JK and Podz in

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Seems like it'll have to be Podz.

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*Lacob

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Lauri is more likely to start at the 3 than the 5 in my view. I guess in that lineup Dray is the 5, but that's a lot of miles to put on him in the regular season. The lineup I'm fantasizing about though is Steph/Melton/Lauri/Dray/Kessler. Finally a lineup with huge size again, that can defend the hell out of teams, despite two average defenders.

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If we can get Kessler out of the deal, that’d make it be a better pill to swallow

But I still don’t want to give up Podz

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Could also do Steph-Wiggs-Anderson-Dray-Markkanen if they wanna play big-ball.

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I like Steph,Plowden,Markkanen,Dray,TJD.

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Melton and Hield is a good lineup too..and it’s likely what we’d mostly see

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Brandin Podziemski and Trayce Jackson-Davis are done playing in summer league, I’m told.

https://x.com/anthonyVslater/status/1812982980945846549

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Yep. Good boy Mikey. Stand pat and don’t let Ainge push you around. No JK or Podz in the deal. MDJ is workin it. Seems like he’s totally acting like it’s absolutely no skin off of his teeth if Ainge ends up axing the deal. “Ok Danny, just go ahead and call me back if anything changes” - ‘click’

Now tomorrow there’ll end up being a Dubz trade for Lauri with every player and pick Ainge wanted in the deal 🤦🏼

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Someone made a funny thread about that on r/warriors:

https://old.reddit.com/r/warriors/comments/1e40po4/danny_ainges_next_trade_proposal_gonna_look_like/

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Lol wilts 100 pt game shoe.

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Jul 15·edited Jul 15

Did Dunleavy make a misstep in signing Melton for the full MLE? No other player has signed for the full MLE. Teams using only partial amount for their signings to keep space available for mid season pickups and trades.

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I think Melton has been the single best acquisition of the offseason so far. Dude's only 26, a great defender, and probably looking to sign for more than 15M next offseason. He's a steal.

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author

You are assuming Melton would have taken less than the NTMLE. If the choice is between getting the guy you want and keeping cap space for hypothetical midseason moves, I'd rather GSW gets the guy they want.

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Your negotiation tactics suck! I kid…

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Well, Hollinger said this was his biggest value signing, so it's possible there were other teams ready to offer the MLE, or Mike thought that was possible.

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Jul 16·edited Jul 16

With the back injuries, that’s a bit of a tough sell. Still medium risk, high reward situation for me. Hopefully he stays healthy like OBJ did.

Not like he has to play big starter minutes…so 🤞🏻

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Yeah, backs are scary, hopefully Rick was correct to sign off on a clean bill of health

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Free agent guard Cam Payne has agreed to a one-year, $3.1 million deal with the New York Knicks

https://x.com/ShamsCharania/status/1812985569783521336

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Podz' shooting has been pretty good in a small sample, right? ~8 3PA/36min, making 40%, and ~6 FTA/36min, making 80%, with a few decent looking midrange shots. And while he's not blowing by anybody in isolation, he kinda looks like he's able bulldoze his way into the paint, and has enough craftiness to finish a bit once he gets there. It's kinda exactly what you'd want to see from Podz right now, right?

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I hope his success in the Summer League carries over to the preseason and the regular season when he faces against tougher competition.

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