97 Comments

If I’m GM (which alone would be awesome hearing “Goofus McPenisbutter” mentioned in public as often as “Bob Meyers” currently is), I’m standing pat unless something too good to be true comes along.

Two main reasons:

1. I think waiting to see if the Minny pick conveys and where it lands makes sense. If it ends up being #4, we sold low. Conversely, if it rolls over to next season unprotected, it might be equally valuable to other teams next year because of the increased certainty that it’s a an actual pick from a team that’s likely to remain shitty.

2. The team still has to figure out what they’ve already got. Is Oubre worth re-signing? Are Paschall, Lee, Poole, Mannion and JTA good enough to be rotation pieces on a contender. Does Wiseman progress enough in the 2nd half that we’re confident that he can be the big center in a triad with Chriss and Looney.

Expand full comment

You’re wise and probably correct.

There’s just so much risk involved in standing pat this year. It’s really too bad the Chase center is in one of the most restrictive counties in the entire country. In a normal year I could see the Warriors going all in and using the injury exception to get bird rights to a player for next year too. But SF county and the NBA have been hammering their ability to raise cash, so they are more likely to make business decisions this year.

Expand full comment

When was the last time the narrative around a winning team was about developing a young player at the expense of the team?

Don’t young players that get time in winning cultures get that playing time to add to the team’s success?

Historically: The develop Wiseman narrative has a high likelihood of being the end of the Warriors run as a winning franchise if it wins the narrative battle. Even Kobe didn’t start until he could do better than the playoff caliber players he replaced. Does Wiseman deserve more respect than Kobe?

Expand full comment

The problem the Warriors have making a trade is that Wiggins has 2 more years left on his contract. Were it not for that, they could trade Wiggins plus the first round picks for the star player on a rebuilding team (no idea who that would be). The receiving team gets cap relief, 2 first round picks, and their own low pick for being bad (having traded their star player and all). In a parallel universe that makes the Wigins for KAT trade make sense, but the problem with the T-wolves is they would just get back their own early pick and be stuck with Wiggins contract again for 2 more years, plus a bad contract for DLo.

Expand full comment

Trade Proposal: No.

Expand full comment

I don't see how #2 is an overpay. We get a current top 10, +RPM center, and we give up a minus RPM forward, a huge salary, two centers who are not yet, and quite possibly never will be NBA players, and finally someone who someday when Steph and Klay and Dray are old will be not as good as RJ Barrett.

I guess I don't see why the Mavericks would ever this trade.

Expand full comment

Not every bad trade is necessarily an “overpay.” You also have to consider the opportunity cost. Trades are not as easy as saying “yes” to something Eric Apricot writes on the Internet; in the real world, once you liquidate all the young trade assets, they’re gone and never coming back. You better be damn sure you’re doing it for a player you really love. Are we damn sure the broken remains of Kristaps Porzingis are that guy?

Expand full comment

I don't understand how you can confidently say the pick will not be as good as RJ Barrett. That's just ridiculous.

Of course, the pick may end up being RJ Barrett. Or it may end up being Luka Doncic or LaMelo Ball.

If we offered that deal to the Mavs, they would say yes within seconds.

Expand full comment

The problem with the team having a KD sized hole, is that the plug of the hole needs to be KD-sized. If the Warriors win another championship with Steph, it seems almost certain that Klay will be at the 2 and Dray at the 4. If you believe either no longer can compete at championship level, the talent deficit is just too large to overcome. That leaves the 3 and the 5 as the obvious places to upgrade. And the Dubs really only have 3 trade chips worth much. Wiseman, the 1-20 1st, and the MIN 1st.

I don't see any of LBJ, KD, Giannis, Kawhi, PG13, Tatum, or Brown even semi-plausible. AD, Jokic, Gobert, Embiid are untouchable. That's why the only trades that have really enticed me are the Barnes and KAT ideas. So you have to move to the second level of trade targets? KAT at least gets you an opportunity to have a top 5 center in the next 2-3 years. He's not perfect, but he's Wiseman with his timeline pushed up 5 years. And Barnes gets you the like 15th best SF in the league. If you only have to give up one of Wiseman/Min pick, that may be the best talent upgrade you can get in Steph's prime. The other of the two needs to be a superstar quick or that championship window may be shut.

Expand full comment

Curry/Klay/Draymond do not need a KD-caliber player to win another championship.

Expand full comment

They might not, although one could argue that the league has improved a lot since that 2014-2016 and they might have fallen off a bit. But what they need is not KD caliber, but a KD-sized player. A big 3 with playmaking and rebounding skills is really the huge missing piece.

Expand full comment

I disagree. The top teams are worse than they were in 2016. Spurs, Cavs, Thunder, Warriors would all be overwhelming favorites

Expand full comment

While it's true that those teams dominated their era more than any team is dominating now, partially teams have just gotten smarter over time. SBDS was still new for the Dubs then and it supercharged their offense. Now everyone has their own small ball lineup and you can see it in league ORating. In 2016, it was 106.4. Now it's 112.0.

Expand full comment

Barnes would work.

Expand full comment
Comment deleted
Expand full comment

This <3

Expand full comment

If Wiseman becomes remotely as good as KAT in 5 yrs, I'll be amazed

Expand full comment

It wouldn’t *totally* shock me ... but even if we give him, say, a 50% shot to get to that level (or beyond), we’re still talking 4-5 developmental seasons to get to that point that would effectively take up the rest of Steph’s prime.

KAT at 25 is actually a perfect age in that he’s mature enough to compete for a ‘chip right now against the big boys, but young enough that he could still have some serious untapped upside. What if we were buying low based on his cruddy team? There was a time 2-3 years ago when KAT was mentioned with AD and Giannis as THE young studs you’d want to build a franchise around. His individual numbers since then have not fallen off a bit — if anything, they’ve improved. What if he’s still that franchise guy, and the issue is mostly that the Wolves are just that dysfunctional?

Curry-Thompson-Oubre-Green-KAT. Bench: Lowry, Looney, Lee, Bazemore, JTA, Chriss, Poole, Jessup. Let’s get it!!

I mean, I get the concerns about KAT — motor and D, primarily. I'm just willing to gamble that the culture change would help reawaken the plus defender he was in college. Unlike Wiggins, Towns is absolutely elite on one end of the floor. If his D improved to the degree that Wiggins' has under Ron Adams and co., we're talking a borderline top 10 player. Dude is 7'-0" 260, shoots like our own KAT — Klay Alexander Thompson — and rebounds and passes like Bogut. That's a tough mix of attributes to find.

Most efficient 20+ PPG scorers in NBA history:

1. Stephen Curry .624 ts

2. Karl-Anthony Towns .621 ts

3. Kevin Durant .614 ts

Make us better, Myers!

Expand full comment

It's a little awkward since KAT doesnt pair with the Draymond smallball lineups, but hey neither does Wiseman (oh, Haliburton...).

Your point about KAT's absurd efficiency is basically why I think it would take an absolute miracle for Wiseman to be as impactful as KAT even 5 yrs from now. Sure, KAT wont be winning any DPOYs any time soon, but the dude is a generational scoring threat. And Wiseman, raw as he may still be, is VERY unlikely to reach those heights

Expand full comment

The Wolves aren’t taking Wiggins back, their FO can’t do that without getting crucified. They could do Oubre, Wiseman, and Poole or any of the Warriors low cost players they like. Plus their pick back and what ever other picks the Warriors can offer probably 2 firsts?. There would probably need to be another team involved to take on deadweight or the Wolves have to make cuts.

Maybe the Pels and Ball could get involved if they still want to move him.

It’s possible, but it sure looks like the Warriors are going to keep “developing” Wiseman.

Expand full comment

Yeah, smallball is always gonna be our optimal look. That’s kinda why I felt compelled one more great playmaker — Kyle Lowry, in my fantasy — who would allow a couple different smaller-ball looks (with Klay and Kelly moving up to the 3-4) in addition to the full-size lineup.

1. Lowry-Curry-Thompson-Oubre-Green

2. Lowry-Curry-Thompson-Oubre-Towns

I think Towns’ elite shooting makes him a great complement to Dray; but also think his elite passing makes him a great replacement for Dray as the high-post playmaking hub of the offense. Think DWest and the way he suddenly started racking up 7-8 assists per 36 when he joined us.

KAT would be hybrid of KD, DWest, and JaVale. And right about to hit his prime.

Probably all a pipe dream, but a nice pipe dream, imo.

Expand full comment

Trade machine wise, I see how we could pull it off...real world wise, I just have a hard time seeing why MIN would do this after we just traded DLo so he could be with KAT and took Wiggins off their hands.

Expand full comment

Probably ... although the deal I’m proposing was initially proposed by Wolves fans on Canis Hoopus, so maybe it’s not totally homerish? OKC would facilitate by taking Wiggins and a couple assets/picks for Horford. Both Horford and DLo would move on in two years and the Wolves would get to build around 21 yo Edwards, 21 yo Wiseman, and whatever other blue chipper(s) they were able to add with their restored draft pick.

Expand full comment

I am inclined to agree with your take. I, too, see real possibility in a Barnes/Bagley trade for Wiggins. I might also be inclined to throw in Paschall for Whiteside. This would upgrade our size and paint players enormously.

KAT is another story. He is a good player, no doubt, but we would have to give up too much to get him and his injury history worries me. If they would take back Wiggins and Wiseman, I would do it.

Expand full comment

Forgot to say that your 1st paragraph is spot on and is why they won't pay what it would take to get Beal like some want.

Expand full comment

Not much difference between Barnes/Wiggins/Oubre. We'd have to pay someone to take Wiggin's salary, but he's doing a pretty good job for us. Since we're over the cap with or without him I don't see how we improve at the 3 if we have to trade a pretty good 3 already PLUS an asset to cover his salary. Yeah, he's overpaid, but the team doesn't get better by saving money. Now maybe that's what they guys paying the money want to do, but it's not what us fans want. Also, the guys paying the money have shown they want to win so i think Wiggins stays and they try to work out something with Oubre, too (if they don't think they can, then they try to trade him to a contender in the next 2 weeks)

Expand full comment

I think there is a huge difference between Oubre and the other 2 players. He has more upside than both of them combined and his energy is something to behold. I know his shooting has been terrible but he is definitely coming back and could be an important part of the core. If his 3 ball gains stability, he is the best starting SF of the 3 and the Warriors can begin to work on his passing skills. Plug him into the bench with a reworked supporting cast and we have a serious team, once again.

Steph Klay Barnes/Oubre/Oladipo Green KAT is a very good unit. Bagley playing with an upgraded PG and either or Barnes/Oubre/Oladipo coming off the bench is damned good. Plus draft pick and whatever trades/acquisitions can be done to shore up the bench. Lots of possibilities available. And, I believe you are right about not getting better by saving money. It's just when you combine an expensive contract with an underachieving talent, you are on the losing side of that equation.

Expand full comment

What in the world is that Frye/Nance twitter thing, why is Frye hating on Nance?

Expand full comment
author

Frye got a commentating gig, and has a bunch of strong opinions that are wrong as often as they are right. He's no Perk or anything, but he's awfully judgy

Expand full comment

Sadly that attitude is how you get known in journalism these days

Expand full comment
Mar 9, 2021Liked by punk basketball

Call me change phobic but no to all of the above. Also fire the imaginary assistant who proposed to bring in the unicorn. I thought he was pretty horrible when we played the Mavs.

Expand full comment
author

Seerat Sohi was pushing the Zinger trade on Warriors Huddle podcast too.

Expand full comment
Mar 9, 2021Liked by punk basketball, Daniel Hardee

I’m still a fan of running this group back with Klay; assuming fans in Chase Centre can insert enough cash flow to pay the luxury tax.

Re-evaluate first third of next season after some time together and see the progress of JW and MIN pick (hopefully). Can always make a trade then.

One caveat on run it back with Klay - Brad gets released to play in a league that can bring the best out in him. Not not make him feel crap about himself...I’m just assuming one would feel crap after hearing all the noise. I would!

Expand full comment
Mar 9, 2021Liked by punk basketball

Don't think Bob will pull the trigger on a major move that'll involve prospects like Wiseman or the Minnesota pick during the year but this offseason might be a different story. I know the Warriors are aware of the situation in the NBA with titans like the Lakers/Nets popping up. This current roster even with Klay back will still be an underdog against those teams so I expect something bonkers this offseason. I don't know what though.

Expand full comment

> I know the Warriors are aware of the situation in the NBA with titans like the Lakers/Nets popping up. This current roster even with Klay back will still be an underdog against those teams

Lakers are old and/or injury prone. Nets are a ticking timebomb of failed chemistry.

If you're talking this year, and maybe next, sure. Beyond that? Not really seeing it.

Expand full comment

> If you're talking this year, and maybe next, sure.

That's how I interpreted it. I also don't expect Klay to be 100% next year. Even with full health, I'd expect some sort of minutes/role restriction to be cautious and then you factor just getting back into peak form will take a while given two years of, not just lack of competitive basketball, but mostly sitting around.

Then, like you said, Lakers are getting old... Nets might not work out... who knows about the Bucks and Philly... anything short of a Finals appearance for either team might push them just far enough to think about moving a core piece...

There's currently nobody available that will make a difference this year... and if we're looking to make a splash for next year, might as well wait until the off-season and see how things pan out for the current contenders... there might be more big names moving around

Expand full comment

The Suns and Jazz are likely to still be damn good next year and maybe the year after (depending on CP and Conley aging/injuries, respectively). No idea what happens with Denver, the Clippers, or the East. But if I'm looking at getting another title in the next 3 years, I'm definitely keeping an eye on those teams maybe even more than the Nets.

Expand full comment

I don't expect Klay to be in any kind of form like we're hoping for until late February or March, which is another reason to try to keep Oubre around.

Expand full comment

The next unhappy superstar who exits one round too early will be apartment searching in the Bay Area this June. Book it!

Expand full comment

So Giannis... or Joel... or both...

Expand full comment

I doubt either will be available. Giannis just signed a max extension and said he's there to stay. He may eventually leave but not after 1 year. And for Embiid even if the sixers decide to trade someone I bet it'd be Simmons and not Embiid though that could be interesting also.

Maybe something like

Wizards get Wiggins + minni pick

Sixers get Beal

Warriors get Simmons

Expand full comment

Among these options, I would prefer both.

Expand full comment

How down is Oladipo’s game? My eyes are taking a much needed respite from all things Rockets and haven’t seen a minute. He was really, really good pre injury. He’d be pretty excellent either along side or staggered with the splash bros. if he were to re-sign. He’s not the shooter that Beal is by any means, but he’s a much, much better defender and a lead ball handler/scorer that would fill many holes.

Expand full comment

>He was really, really good pre injury.

... for ONE season ('17-18), yes he was great.

Before that he averaged 15.9 points in 33.2 MPG on 48% eFG.

After that he's averaged 18.1 points in 31.2 MPG on 47.5% eFG, averaging 26 games played per year over the last three years (including this year, but he's played 24 games so far, so it doesn't change anything).

I really, really, really don't get how everyone is so high on him. It really sucks about the injury, right when he was taking off, but I am just not seeing it.

Expand full comment
author

And they always say that a player who doesn't rely as much on athleticism can come back from injuries easier - that's NOT Oladipo at all.

Personally, I think he's good enough to get back somewhere close to that good season, but I'm not ready to throw a bunch of assets just for the chance to see if it works out or not

Expand full comment

If you said "young enough" instead of "good enough" I'd probably agree, with the caveat that it's a gamble.

Expand full comment

Possible trade:

Wiggins + Paschall + 2026 1st (top 5 protected) for HB + Bjelica

We obviously lose out on the future FRP as well as a prospect in Paschall but we get rid of Wiggins and acquire a better player in HB and Bjelica is a good role player. Don't think the Kings do this unless we include more draft compensation though which would be an overpay.

Big trade:

Wiseman + Oubre + Poole + Smiley + Paschall + MIN 2021 FRP + GSW 2026 FRP + whatever else we can give in terms of FRP (don't know if we can trade the 2023 FRP) + pick swaps in all years for KAT.

Even though they probably should, I doubt the Wolves blow it up.

Expand full comment

There's something perverse about pushing to reunite the KAT+Wiggins core outside of Minnesota.

Expand full comment

For the KAT trade you propose, how about replace some of the pieces with Wiggins, just for trolling purposes?

Expand full comment

I thought that would've been another no immediately lol.

Expand full comment

I think it's win-win for both sides.

Warriors adds another generational offensive talent to their roster.

Minnesota gets to claim they won the DLo/Wiggins/1st-pick trade by ending up with *all* of pieces.

Expand full comment

When in reality they traded KAT for DLo. LOL

Expand full comment

Minor details.....

Expand full comment

Trade 1: Like this trade, and would seriously consider it but don't get why Atlanta do this. They're not in any position to be consolidating current assets for future assets because Trae is becoming really good now unless they're flipping future assets for a star. If that's the case, I'd rather cut out the middleman and look to get the star lol.

Trade 2: Overpay of the century.

Trade 3: This one could still happen, but doubt the Mavs don't get better value for Zinger than Wiggins and his negative contract.

Trade 4: Don't see why NOP does this considering Oubre is a rental while Ball is an RFA.

Trade 5: Lmao.

Trade 6: Hell no.

Expand full comment

I’d rather keep Oubre than Wiggins. Similar D, similar shooter, better rebounder, way more energy. Oubre can’t create in iso as well as Wiggins, but that shouldn’t be a role for either and Wiggins isn’ta huge iso threat anyway.

Expand full comment

I don't think Oubre and Wiggins are similar shooters. Oubre >>

Expand full comment

But I get trade wise Wiggins’ *doubly* large salary means they are not interchangeable. Indeed, if I’m taking Wiggins from the Warriors i want the Min pick to offset his salary.

Expand full comment

That's why I think the move is Wiggins/Wiseman/Minnesota pick for a center upgrade, to free up a spot for Oubre. Personally would be angling for Vucevic, since I could see him realistically being traded and plus I don't know if anyone else would be available (would also be interested in Capela).

A lot of it comes down to Oubre though, if he's willing to come off the bench then they could trade for a wing upgrade or just keep Wiggins and probably be better for it. I'm skeptical of that though.

Expand full comment
author

> ...angling for Vucevic, since I could see him realistically being traded

I like Vucevic a lot too, but what have you seen that makes you think he would realistically get traded? I feel like he's one of the only things the Magic got right over there

Expand full comment

Just basing it on their record and his age and contract. And that there have been recent trade rumors about the Spurs, Heat, Celtics, and Hornets targeting him.

But perhaps he's a Beal/Lillard type who wants to stick it out with his team, I don't know.

Expand full comment

It's not just that. Wiggins is under contract through the 2022-23 season, so two more seasons after this one. Oubre is an unrestricted free agent after this season, so anyone who trades for Oubre is getting a rental for this season only. I don't see why any non-contender would do that.

Expand full comment

Well, let's definitely trade Wiggins and re-sign Oubre then. We'd be lucky if the Minnesota pick is Darius Garland level.

Expand full comment
author

on the flip though: if we are ever going to swing a big trade for a big name, we almost certainly need Wiggins on that big contract to swing back across to our trading partner for salary matching.

He is way overpaid, but that contract slot is a valuable team building tool

Expand full comment

I don't hate the Wiggins+MIN 1st for Dipo+Tucker trade. Houston gets a secondary scorer and quality defender plus something to base their future on; we get back two guys who very suddenly looked washed after ending up in a kind of shitty situation in Houston. Maybe we lose out on this bet, but I feel like there are good odds that at least one of them rounds back into a contributor. Problem is, if it's Tucker and not Dipo who gets his stride back, we're still in need of a ball handler, and our second unit might be worse than it was before.

All these other suggested trades can go in the trash right now.

Expand full comment

Cannot think of a worse trade involving the Minn pick than this - we're losing out a pretty decent chance at a premium prospect for geriatric PJ Tucker (who's been one of the worst players in the league this year) and post-injury Victor Oladipo (who's been one of the worst contracts in the league since his injury). Furthermore, both of these guys, even if you rate them, are rentals and could well walk at the end of the season, leaving us to lose the Minn pick for 6 months of 2 players who combined don't have the value of even a good starter let alone a star.

Expand full comment

I don't know if I want Tucker, but premium prospect a bit of a stretch. *maybe* a Deandre Hunter. And Oladipo's RPM is way higher than Wiggins'. Agreed, his ending contracts Pacer would be a problem, though looked at another way, Wiggins' overly bloated contract limits his tradability. Rentals might be the extent of his trade value.

Expand full comment

We have a roughly 60% chance to get one of Mobley/Kuminga/Suggs/Green this year (all of whom are premium prospects - every single one of them would've gone #1 in last year's draft), and if that doesn't materialize, we will have a lottery pick in 2022 where it's slated to be another good draft (this time unprotected and I doubt anyone envisages the Wolves suddenly becoming good). The pick may eventually end up being a DeAndre Hunter, or it may end up being a LaMelo, an SGA or a JJJ. The reason why picks are highly valued is that they are the best way to get stars - even if most picks don't end up being stars. In a league which is thoroughly dominated by stars, assets that provide a comparatively high chance of getting starts are incredibly valuable, especially because rookie contracts are the biggest value for money contracts in the league apart from the LeBrons and Stephs of the world.

Wiggins is overpaid and a liability (for his contract). He has negative value and is not relevant to the trade - the pick is what they'd be after with Wiggins being a throw-in for salary matching purposes. RPM is one stat (which has been messed around with too much after the recent modifications), but Oladipo is inefficient to the point of uselessness on the offensive end - he's significantly behind even Wiggins' efficiency in scoring the ball. He's at .519, .516, .501 TS in his post-injury seasons, while league average is around 57% this year. In terms of efficiency, the difference between league average and Victor Oladipo is the same as the difference between Steph Curry and league average this year. And Oladipo has been inefficient for his entire career barring 1 outlier good year pre-injury in Indiana.

Straight up, Oladipo for Wiggins is something I can understand from our perspective. But throwing in a blue-chip asset for a mediocre player is not how good franchises function in the modern NBA. That's a Sacramento Kings or Minnesota Timberwolves level mistake right there.

Expand full comment

Hey, that's how our Dubs functioned for decades before the Lacob era. Bring us back to our roots!

Expand full comment

If I'm Myers, I'm standing pat. I want the 2021 Minnesota pick and I want the Dubs own pick (so, what?, don't be in the top 10 of the NBA). I like Wiggins - very good defender, solid offensively. I like Oubre for defense and offense, although I think he's leaving because of cost in the summer. He's just now understanding the system - why trade him for Lonzo? I wouldn't trade for Porzingis, because who needs the injuries. I prefer Oubre over Oladipo because of better defense and rebounding.

What's left? Collins for everybody? No. There's a lot to be said for continuity and players that know the system.

Expand full comment