The next eight games will make or break the Warriors season; plus game thread

A moment of calm reflection

SplashBrosMuse @SplashBrosMuse

Steph Curry watching the Warriors rn:

A moment of calm reflection

For a .500 team, every loss feels like proof they will never win again and that the management destroyed the team. Every win feels like the team has turned the corner. I will not tell you how to be a fan(atic) but here is one way to emotionally pace yourself.

Any one game has a lot of randomness. The key is pick out stretches of the season and have realistic hopeful goals. Some parts of the schedule are just a lot harder than other parts.

A road game loss without Steph Curry and Wiggins against the rejuvenated Lakers doesn’t say a lot about the team’s full strength, but it does hurt the win-loss record. If this team can just get into the Play-in healthy, they will have a puncher’s chance against anyone, especially if Steph is all the way back and GP2 can contribute.

Below we look at the three stretches that make up the rest of the season, with a realistic path to the playoffs.

• Surviving without Steph

• A hard schedule with Steph’s return

• A soft ending for a final run

What will it take to make the Play-Ins?

Impossible to predict. Here are the games above or below .500 for the #10 team in past seasons:

• 2022: -12 (West), +4 (East)

• 2021: -6, -6

• 2020: -5, -19 (bubble year)

• 2019: -8, -4

• 2018: +2, -10

In the past, getting to 2 or 4 games under .500 would get you in. But this year is extra unpredictable because

1. There is a lot of parity. There are a whopping 7 teams with 28-31 wins all trying for 4 play-in spots. If the wins were roughly evenly distributed among the 7 teams, then the play-in would go to a team around 2 games under .500. I think is the safest guess.

2. The #5 lottery pick right now is held by Orlando with 25 wins. That spot has a massive 10.5% chance at Victor and a 21% chance at Victor or Scoot. If one of the 7 contenders hits a bad streak or has an injury, they could quickly pivot to being Weak for Wemby and tank for the lottery. My guess at ranking these teams from lowest desire to tank to highest, based on their roster, owned draft picks and state of injuries:

   1. LAL

   2. GSW

   3. MIN

   4. POR

   5. NOP

   6. OKC

   7. UTA

By this argument if 3 teams start tanking, the other teams will likely get in by default. My guess is that 40 wins (2 games under .500) is the key target to make the Play-in.

Surviving the stretch without Steph

GSW are 1 game under .500 right now at 29-30. Here’s the most likely outcome of the next eight games without Steph Curry, which will make or break the season.

(2-1)

• Fri, Feb 24 vsHouston

• Sun, Feb 26 vsMinnesota

• Tue, Feb 28 vsPortland

(1-4)

• Thu, Mar 2 vsLA

• Fri, Mar 3 vsNew Orleans

• Sun, Mar 5 at Los Angeles

• Tue, Mar 7 at Oklahoma City

• Thu, Mar 9 at Memphis

I expect the Warriors to be 3 games under .500 at 32-35 by the time Steph comes back. That is still well within a run of the play-ins. If they do much better, that will put them in prime position. If they do much worse, they might be straight up out of the running.

But I can’t imagine them tanking for Victor unless something truly sad happens, like 1-7 . Which only two random endings away from the predicted 3-5, showing how pivotal this stretch is.

Steph’s return into a tough schedule

This is a rough stretch, even if Steph is back at a high level. 5 game road trip sandwiched by two home games against serious contenders. They should beat ATL and HOU. The other teams are better, but if they can steal just one game, that makes them 3-5 and 35-40 by the end of this.

(3-5)

• Sat, Mar 11 vsMilwaukee

• Mon, Mar 13 vsPhoenix

• Wed, Mar 15 at LA Clips

• Fri, Mar 17 at Atlanta

• Sat, Mar 18 at Memphis

• Mon, Mar 20 at Houston

• Wed, Mar 22 at Dallas

• Fri, Mar 24 vsPhiladelphia

The home stretch

7 games to go, and GSW will have to go 5-2 to make the target of 40 wins. But this is a stretch where a Full Squad could make a last ditch run.

SAS and probably OKC are trying to lose. DEN and SAC may be resting.

(5-2)

• Sun, Mar 26 vsMinnesota

• Tue, Mar 28 vsNew Orleans

• Fri, Mar 31 vsSan Antonio

• Sun, Apr 2 at Denver

• Tue, Apr 4 vsOklahoma City

• Fri, Apr 7 at Sacramento

• Sun, Apr 9 at Portland

Darkest before the dawn

I would like you to consider these DNHQ comments, which I believe reflect the recent sentiments of the most depressed parts of Dub Nation.

• [Klay]'s not a scrub, he's playing like a scrub. he'll get sorted eventually, but he may crater our playoff hopes in the process. c'est la vie.

• This of course assumes a lot. The Dubs just lost to one of the worst teams in the league by completely folding in the 4th quarter. … Given this level of play, you can't assume they'll necessarily win any of their remaining games.

• It feels fairer (or at least more cathartic) to say that this dumbass team… is cooked regardless.

• now I’m way beyond mad. I’m between apathetic and schizophrenic

• I thought we were going to be champions this year, but we have to be honest, we're not even going to get past the first round of the playoffs

• If Wiggins is still terrible and Klay is still bad I don't think we make it out of the first round even with Curry at 100%

• Captain, i don’t know if we have a big 3 anymore , maybe Poole , Steph and Dray. Klay and Wigs suck, sorry but they suck

• I have a request. For due respect to us. Please, Dubs, would you fu….g STOP dancing and laughing during training, on boarding the plane, before the game???

• Should I even watch the game tomorrow? If this Klay/Wiggs/Dray show up, it is going to be a bloodbath.

• if [Wiggins] continues to play poorly the Warriors will have to send picks with him to get a useful player. If he returns to being the pre all star Wiggins they could get a useful player without sending picks

• Wiggins got his salary up to maybe he’s a good neutral salary filler in a trade for a star at his peak. But he’s back to he’s an expiring that a team might want to consolidate their smaller contracts into for cap room.

• We need some more aggressively skilled players and some size. Kuminga will fit that profile, but who else? …. if we can't find someone better for the vet min but I think that shipped sailed with the decline of our team this half of the season. Splash Bros and Dray are aging out, fast. I'm not kidding.

• we'll be stuck with Wiggs who just doesn't put out enough for me to back him. There's not very much chemistry with Wiggs and he shouldn't close out games because of his poor foul shooting.

• I'm worried about Wiggin's focus level and mental toughness. I don't trust him to hang in there and not get rattled when things gets tough in the playoffs.

• The conversation was about focus and mental toughness in that aspect hes a mental midget, not calling [Wiggins] unintelligent

• Wiggins’ peak value is being “the best 5th most importantly player on a team” in the league. Maybe 4th if he’s practiced his free throws that day.

• they should have just had an emergency big signed in the offseason just incase

• Woof. Do not go to r/warriors right now. It's gloom and doom over there.

Okay, these comments are not from this week or even this season, they are from TWO WEEKS BEFORE THE 2022 PLAYOFFS STARTED. You know, perhaps the most satisfying, thrilling and gutsy playoff run in Warriors history, just last season. One in which the untradeably sucky Wiggins put in a performance that had people seriously discussing his FMVP case. One in which the washed up Klay hit multiple game winning shots. One in which the too small Warriors out-rebounded bigger and more athletic teams.

Let’s go Warriors!