The NBA Lottery: Sunday 12 noon PT
GSW have 9.4% chance to win a Top 4 pick
The 2026 NBA Lottery
Sunday, May 10, 12:00 noon PT
Watch: ABC/ESPN
In case you have never watched the lottery before, usually there is a brief introduction of all the team’s representatives, and then they start opening envelopes from pick #14 all the way down to pick #1, revealing the post-lottery order of selection.
Everyone nods patiently as each team is revealed in its expected pre-lottery spot. Then everyone gasps when a team does not appear in its expected place, because that means they are in the top four. All you have to do is wait until they reveal pick number 11. If the Warriors have not already appeared in those first four reveals, then they have won a top four spot.
If you see GSW in the first four, then you can turn off the TV in disgust. Or you can stay to see who wins, either is acceptable.
Most importantly, once GSW’s draft spot is finalized, we can begin the assembly of the 2026 Draft Tournament.
This is the last year the NBA will use this system to determine its draft order for teams that don’t make the playoffs. Only the first four picks are determined by the lottery, picks 5-30 follow the reverse standings of whoever is left (although trades will impact which team actually makes those selections).
The system uses 14 numbered ping-pong balls, put into a lottery machine, creating 1001 possible combinations. Four numbered balls are randomly extracted at a time, and each lottery team is assigned a certain number of those combinations, based on its record, which gives us the odds for each team. This random extraction process is completed four times to select the top four picks.
Also note that representatives from the teams and the media are present for the drawing, so it is quite difficult to fix the lottery.
Focus on the Warriors
I hope Kerr and Lacob decide his future after the lottery. GSW with a Top 4 pick is a completely different team to coach than a #11 pick. Kerr could be the coach either way, but I think if you get Top 4, you have to build around that guy and strategize Steph eventually passing the torch to him.
Here’s ESPN’s take:
No. 1 pick odds: 2% | Top-four pick odds: 9.4%
Most likely pick if they stay at No. 11: Karim Lopez, SF/PF, New Zealand Breakers
Similar to Milwaukee, the direction Golden State takes here will be indicative of where the franchise’s goals lie. The Warriors can try to continue to maximize the final phase of Stephen Curry‘s career with a more NBA-ready prospect, or they could take a longer view. Assuming they don’t move up, this would become an interesting juncture in the draft, with the top freshmen all potentially off the board.
Lopez might marry those two goals, with a good mix of size, skill, feel and pro experience for a teenage prospect. On the other end of the age spectrum, forward Yaxel Lendeborg should get a long look from the Warriors because of his versatility to plug in right away.
What I’m hearing on the Warriors: Golden State’s offseason questions begin at the top, with Steve Kerr’s future unresolved. Whether to push forward to try to contend with 38-year-old Curry, after missing the playoffs twice in the past three seasons (and with Jimmy Butler III recovering from ACL surgery), is a difficult question.
With all their draft picks back (they owe their 2030 first to Dallas only if it’s Nos. 21-30), this is a window for the Warriors to pick a direction, although the changes to the lottery likely make it harder to justify a full-on rebuild over the next couple of seasons.