The Jimmy Butler Trade, a DNHQ Roundtable

Copium or Hopium?

A few of us from the DNHQ family got together to write our thoughts on the Jimmy Butler trade:

• Ivan Bettger, graphic artist and wizard

• Dr. Thomas Bevilacqua, author of Golden Age: The Brilliance of the 2018 Champion Golden State Warriors

• Daniel Hardee, multi-award-winning author

• Patrick Murray, cap analyst for Forbes Sports

• And Eric Apricot, the cutest pug face

What was your initial reaction to the Jimmy Butler trade?

Patrick: I won’t lie I was a bit disappointed and discouraged. If it had just been about Butler then I probably would have been a lot more excited. Jimmy Buckets is an awesome basketball player, and for all the drama that has followed him I do think there are reasons beyond Butler for that. It takes two to tango and Pat Riley is no innocent. 

But in the context of heavy Kevin Durant rumors for days, then the news that KD was the one who quashed that trade, Butler felt like a consolation prize in the moment. And it felt like we were a consolation prize for him. Then there’s the loss of Wiggins, who was having a great year. 

Ivan: Reluctant pessimism? Butler’s age and, er, off-court reputation are enough of red flags that a lot of the fanbase was clearly not enthused about his possible addition, which may have colored my initial reaction. I was also surprised. Toward the end, it didn’t feel like anything was going to get done, even including a minor deal for Vucevic. 

Apricot: After the KD thing fell through (which would have been the emotional equivalent of your parents getting back together after the divorce), I was only expecting a trade for Vucevic or maybe a salary dump. So I was really stunned. I was not a fan of the public persona of Jimmy, as painted by his bosses and also to some extent by Jimmy himself, and I remember the anxiety I had scrolling to see who was outgoing in the trade, assuming multiple young players and picks had to go, and then being amazed that wasn’t so.

Dr. Tom: I was a bit surprised they pulled off something on a major scale after the KD move fell through and then a little worried they would have given up too much for a short-term rental of Butler as it has been leaked he wouldn’t agree to an extension with the Warriors. Also, I was still feeling the heartache of the KD trade falling apart (it felt so close). 

Now that your initial shock has subsided, do you feel any differently?

Patrick: Yes. Butler is a great basketball player who has leapt into a new stratosphere in the playoffs, squeezing into Dr Duncan Stein’s list at number 80 despite not having won a ring (yet). Playoff Jimmy is real. It’s only two years since he took an unfancied Miami team from the play-in to the Finals. He basically hasn’t played much this year, so we’re looking at 30-odd games and hopefully a playoff run in the immediate term. A motivated Jimmy Buckets with a new contract and a lot of haters to prove wrong could be very interesting.

The price paid in the trade was super-low too. So once the dust settled, we’ve got a proven guy who can raise his game in the playoffs and does stuff Andrew Wiggins could never do, even 2022 playoffs Wiggins. He’s the second scorer, the dynamic co-star, a beast defensively even at 35. How many close games has this mid-squad frittered away the last couple of seasons? Jimmy Buckets can take care of that nonsense. And at least it won’t be boring. 

Then there’s a sneaky benefit of the consolidation of a 4-for-1 trade. The past couple of years the Warriors just had too many players around about the same level. With Kerr’s egalitarian ideals this led to some curious combinations. But this clears the way properly for Podz, Moody and Kuminga in particular which can only be a good thing going forward. 

As for the extension, if you’ve seen Jimmy Butler’s episode of Architectural Digest you’ll know why the man needs his money. That pad can’t be cheap to maintain. Fuck it, I’m here for this. 

Ivan: If I’m still on the fence, it’s just on the other side of that balance beam into the realm of cautious optimism. I don’t know whether dividends will be paid on the court, but it feels like a wholly worthwhile experiment. Purely based on talent and areas of need, it’s a clear upgrade in my opinion, and the cost was reasonable and ultimately low-risk. The draft compensation will likely fall into the mid-late teens, hardly a paramount loss. And the timing of his extension allows for an excitingly clean break from one era to the next, where the big dollar value might actually be a positive. 

Apricot: If Butler is not washed / injured / a horrible teammate, then this is a tremendous upgrade in on-court talent. On Tuesday, GSW was an old and injured team that was, quite frankly, solved and had zero chance to make a deep playoff run. The trade gives GSW a real hope to be relevant again and if they can get into the playoffs, they will be a team that no one wants to face.

From the perspective of being a fan of the outgoing players, I am sad. I really liked pulling for each of them: the fiery, eccentric Schroder; the cerebral and lowkey genius defender Kyle Anderson; Lindy Waters III with his underdog story and devotion to Native American issues; and Wiggins whom I’ll discuss more below.

But from a strict basketball perspective, this was a very good deal and risk to take. GSW raised its team ceiling considerably (along with its risk) and consolidated the sprawl of their lineup so now people who remain after the deadline will have clearer roles and playing time. They bought Butler at the very very bottom of his market. They traded

• the 2025 Top-10 protected pick in a draft where GSW (and other scouts) don’t like the first round past the top few players;

• a second rounder, a commodity which GSW buys for money in almost every draft

• Slo-mo, Waters and Schroder who were 3 of the 4 worst players on the team by EPM (yes the other one is Buddy)

• Wiggins, a sturdy player and the best recent player on the team… but what, did you expect MIA to trade an All-Star for only undesirable players and assets?

• An incredible zero players out of the young guys.

Yes, there is risk that JB won’t fit or he will tear apart the team. No sure things in basketball. But everyone knew GSW needed a consolidation trade and also a #1B next to Steph. There was literally no other possibility, not even close.

Dr. Tom: I don’t know if I felt differently, but more what I was feeling to a greater degree. Though the extension was a lot of money, I was glad they could get the deal done so this wasn’t going to be a short-term thing. But mainly, I think Butler was the best of the non-KD options on the market. He gives the Warriors someone who can generate their own offense (as big a Wiggins fan as I am, he wasn’t well suited to that). Butler gets to the free-throw line at a greater clip and doesn’t need assists to score. The Warriors desperately needed this kind of a player both for when the offense breaks down but also to take defensive pressure off Curry. I grant that there are the myriad issues and questions that surround Butler, but he’s a competitor and a winner and gives the Warriors what they need. 

Also, how can you not love someone who loves coffee this much? Being that into coffee makes him an NBA player I can truly relate to. Now how about some free samples, Mr. Butler?

DH: Listen, when the trade rumors about getting KD's evaporated into the Bay Area fog, my heart sank. But Jimmy Butler? This isn't your typical consolation prize folks, it's like finding out you didn't get that Tesla but somehow landed a vintage Porsche that's been meticulously maintained. The price was shockingly reasonable (Miami must've been desperate to clear cap like me trying to clear browser history after hate watching Shai Gilgeous-Alexander free throw highlights). Sure, there's the Wiggins factor, but consolidating four rotation pieces into one proven playoff assassin? That's the kind of mathematics I can handle.

How do you feel about Andrew Wiggins’ departure?

Patrick: I was wrong about the Wiggins trade. He grew and proved himself to absolutely be a championship player. He will forever be a Warriors legend for embedding a piece of Luka’s soul horcrux-style into the hardwood in Dallas. Plus that defense on Tatum. 

My big worries swapping out Wiggins with Butler are Wiggs availability, athleticism and constant defense for 82 games, and his spacing. But that’s because we’ve had good two-way Wiggs this season. There were real, genuine, life reasons for it but he was not great last year and was part of the Warriors very real struggles. Still I do worry who is going to be guarding the other team’s best perimeter player 40-minutes a night in a playoff game. 30-year-old Jimmy Butler, no problem. 35-year-old Butler who is also being relied on to get you the big buckets too? Hm. Feels like a gap.

Still I’m glad Wiggins gets to go to another professional organisation and good basketball situation. He rehabilitated his career and reputation, won a ring, and was an all-round good guy in his time with the Warriors. Nothing but love for two-way Wiggs.

Ivan: Look – amongst the DNHQ crew, I can’t tell you how many investment properties on Wiggins Island have been bought, sold, rented, devastated by hurricane, left dormant until season’s change.

It has always been hard for myself and others to accept that the exceptionalism we were blessed to experience in the 2022 playoffs was ultimately a tantalizing promise of his enduring potential rather than a sign of his true self. Even still, his contributions and role on this team have gone less heralded than deserved, and quietly had become this team’s rock. Ultimately, it’s always hard to see a Good Guy move on. Wishing nothing but the best for him. 

Apricot: Andrew Wiggins’s reputation before the Warriors trade was as a loafing un-winner who got the least out of his physical talents, had the worst contract in the league, and was one of the worst defenders in the league by analytics. 

So even though I didn’t follow Wiggins closely pre-GSW, I “knew” enough in 2020 to reject in DNHQ Slack a trade of D-Lo for Wiggins plus THREE first round draft picks. In retrospect I completely overestimated D-Lo’s market value and underestimated what Wiggins could become. And in fairness to myself, GSW also asked for 3 first rounders.

I remember when Kerr introduced Wiggs, he said, don’t expect Wiggins to be a star. We just need him to be a role player. I thought that was an insulting, low-expectations thing to say about a player, even if it was true. But Wiggins never complained and maybe even needed that kind of pressure release. And he became exactly the player that the Warriors needed.

I don’t want to spend much time speaking ill of the departed or arguing about them, so quickly: I was upset about Wiggins not vaccinating, but he did eventually get the shot. Wiggins had mental health reasons for his big dropoff after 2022 and if GSW players and management were okay with it, then I can go along with that too. I do think it’s counterproductive to reduce the situation to “his dad was dying” because it’s easy and correct to reply “well, I and millions of other people had to go through similar situations and we didn’t get the grace to be bad at our jobs for more than a year”. But maybe everyone does deserve that grace and Wiggins was lucky enough to be in a supportive flexible workplace. 

In the end, his outstanding play in the 2022 title run made his mark in the NBA history books. He landed in exactly the right place for him to reclaim his reputation and career. Who would have thought that one of the most dumped on players in the league would grow to get serious discussion as Finals MVP?  Who would have thought that he’d become so beloved that most of Dub Nation would be angered that he would be traded – more or less straight up – for one of the best players in NBA history? 

Farewell, Andrew Wiggins, Honorary Warrior For Life.

Dr. Tom: As, along with Daniel, the owner of the most property on Wiggins island, there’s an odd mix of sadness and appreciation. It cannot be overstated how integral he was to that 2022 championship. His defense on Luka and Tatum was… the stuff of legends. For those of us (aka me and Daniel) who thought that the trade for Wiggins was a sound basketball decision and that he only needed to be in an environment that could allow him to shine. But for what the Warriors are now and how they have to play (really, post-2022 title and with a struggling and then playing-on-another-team Klay Thompson), I just don’t think Wiggins worked; thus, he’s a prime guy to be moved. It’s tough because he’s been playing his best basketball since 2022, but he’s just not the offensive creator the Warriors need alongside Steph right now. But I think he’s going to a good situation (jokes about Heat culture aside, Erik Spoelstra is a great coach) and will continue to be a solid-to-very good NBA player and I wish him nothing but the best. But let it never be forgotten that Daniel and I, on February 7th 2020, looked into the future and saw what Wiggins could achieve with the Warriors. We knew. We proclaimed it. And now he will always be identified as an NBA champion and Warriors legend.

Daniel: Well said Dr. Tom, my co-Mayor of Wiggins Island. Andrew Christian Wiggins is a man who went from "worst contract in the league" to embedding pieces of Luka's soul into the Dallas hardwood. His 2022 playoff run wasn't just good, it was legacy-defining. While losing his constant defense and spacing hurts, getting Butler's playoff intensity in return feels like trading in your reliable Toyota for a Ferrari that occasionally threatens to drive itself off a cliff... but man, what a ride. Miami's getting a good one - a certified Warrior-for-life who proved the Minnesota doubters wrong and helped deliver banner #4 of the Splash Bros-era.

Can the Warriors get enough spacing?

Patrick: The big question for me is can you put Draymond, Butler and Kuminga on the floor at the same time? Those are your three best non-Steph players and none are exactly three-point marksmen. I think they probably can get away with it, but I am hoping that Moses Moody’s recent playing time is not a mirage and that Kerr doesn’t just yank him for no reason (counterpoint - Moody is the only young player who Kerr has repeatedly trusted in the postseason). Moody gives them the right mix of spacing and length, without being dominant on the ball offensively, to go alongside those guys. Podz too has been balling recently. As long as he can keep on his recent three-point trajectory I think that’s a couple of supporting guys who can help make this work.

Beyond that it gets a bit dicey. Buddy Hield is going to see some time but to me he’s a kind of Nick Young-type, ie whatever he gives you is a bonus and you can’t really count on it when the chips are down. Post might get more minutes than is probably sensible.

On the other end, who’s scoring against a lineup featuring Dray-Jimmy-GP2-Loondawg (thankfully still here)? Maybe we’ll just grind it out 90s style. And for his lack of a consistent three-ball the one thing Jimmy does do is get to the free throw line. That will be a rare pleasure for the Warriors.

Ivan: Um, how do I put this… “No”? Kerr almost has to give Quinten Post more of a role than he is suitable for (particularly defensively) to open up some real estate in the paint, and even then we’re going to hope and assume that defenders linger on the perimeter in honor of him and whoever gets the nod at SG. If they make the playoffs, Post will likely become a victim of merciless targeting, leading Kerr to either go too small or too shooterless. 

But here’s the hope (or maybe just my hope): that success won’t entirely hinge on spacing, and instead hinge on Jimmy to take full advantage of the attention that Steph demands. If Kerr opens up some weakside isolation opportunities for Butler that allow him to get to the line, that might be where the success comes from. 

Apricot: On the issue of spacing: having better 3 pt shooters is good because the D has to guard them across more area and that should make more space for drives or better punishment for help.

Butler has a career 3P% of 33%. This is worse than Wiggins’s 38% with GSW. But notice that before Wiggins came to the Steph spacing utopia, he was shooting… wait for it… 33%.  So there is some hope that Butler may get more space for his shots, more catch and shoots (which he is better at than off the dribble) and thus a better 3P%.  

Even if not, we’ll have at worst similar spacing issues to the pre-trade team. Are you really going to sag way off Butler and let him catch and drive into space to get fouled or go in for a layup?  So Butler can also warp the defense by (1) being on-ball and requiring help D, (2) being guarded off-ball because he’s a threat on a kick out to drive, (3) being a cutter that can finish in traffic, etc.

Somehow Butler, even with only an average 3 pointer, has managed to be absolutely elite in team impact analytics on offense and defense starting from 2015 through even this half-assed season, across many teams and co-stars and schemes. (Let’s ignore for the moment what that large data set says about him as a drama-full teammate.) It feels like GSW should be able to figure out something and it will be interesting to see them try.

Daniel: In terms of spacing, The Draymond-Butler-Kuminga lineup equation looks like the greatest collection of “well if his feet are set and nobody is guarding him why not shoot it?” players in Warriors history. But here's the thing: Moses Moody and a surging Podz provide just enough spacing juice to make this work. Butler may not be Klay Thompson from deep, but he gets to the line more than a Warriors player has since... checks notes... well, forever. Between Steph's gravity and Jimmy's free throw parade, we might just grind out some 90s-style wins while making opposing offenses look like they're trying to solve a Rubik's cube blindfolded.

Will the Warriors be able to handle the drama of Jimmy Butler and Draymond Green?

Patrick: If they can handle Draymond Green almost knocking out a teammate they can handle Jimmy Butler. They had CP3 last season! And it’s not like KD wasn’t drama-filled either.

I really think a lot of the Jimmy stuff is overblown. In Miami he lasted five years and took them to two Finals. Then they refused to give him a contract and the team President criticised him publicly in a press conference. Honestly, fuck Pat Riley. In Minnesota, what you going to side with KAT when you’re trying to win a championship? Chicago had given up on winning by the time they traded him. As for Philly, this was a front office that chose Ben Simmons and Tobias Harris over him. Lol.

The press love a drama, and most of those front offices were much more adept at spin than at managing a basketball team. But get Jimmy on a court, alongside Draymond, and the only people who should be concerned about drama in the immediate future are the opposing ball handlers.

Also tbh this team has had too many nice guys in recent years. Fine if you’ve got an overwhelming level of talent but if you’ve got to scrap and claw your way to victory you need a killer who just DGAF. That’s Jimmy right there.

Ivan: Honestly, maybe not. If they aren’t winning, it might spiral completely out of control. But hey, it’s only a couple of years, and it’s been a good run!

Apricot: Draymond has gotten along with Chris Paul and DeMarcus Cousins so it’s possible for him to get along with other hotheads. 

I also think there is merit to Patrick’s teardown of Jimmy’s past controversies above. And reading the Athletic breakdown of Jimmy’s exit with MIA does make me more sympathetic to Jimmy’s side. There is a little more to the story than “Jimmy wants money, Jimmy quits on team and won’t get on team plane or stay in practices.”

Anyway, in the end, Jimmy has left every past team with disruptive dramatics, so we should be braced for that probable outcome at GSW eventually. Hopefully, we can get 0.5 to 1.5 good seasons out of him before the circus begins. 

Daniel: We survived the Draymond-Poole incident and CP3's arrival without the locker room imploding. Jimmy's "dramatic" history? Please. Minnesota chose KAT's vibes over winning, Philly picked Ben "Afraid of Trae Young" Simmons, and Miami's front office played themselves. The only drama I'm interested in is watching Butler and Dray terrorize opposing ball handlers like they're auditioning for a defensive masterclass. When winning time comes, both these dudes show up and that's the only chemistry experiment that matters.

Dr. Tom: I do think some of Butler’s issues/dramatics are a bit overblown or were the product of circumstances where he was reacting fairly reasonably. Also, while he might be a bit… eccentric, this guy is a winner. He DRAGGED two Heat teams that had absolutely no business going as far as they did into the NBA Finals. I mean, in 2023 they went from the play-in to the Finals! This guy is a gamer, he’s tough, he’s clutch, he’s… whatever cliché you want to trot out. But in a Warriors locker room that features Steph and Draymond and coached by Steve Kerr? That kind of a player is going to fit right in. 

Does this move get the Warriors closer to contention?

Patrick: There is a world where Jimmy Butler comes in, goes HAM, drags this .500 squad into the play-in, terrorizes the young Rockets/ Grizzlies like they’re in a Minnesota practice and takes the Warriors deep into the playoffs. With Steph, Dray and Jimmy that is a nasty trio of proven playoff dudes. The previous squad, much as I loved Wiggins, had a zero per cent chance of that frankly. We’ve seen how consistently inconsistent they’ve been all year.

It seems unlikely they’ll go all the way but if they find their way into the Finals I don’t think there are two players who have terrorized Boston more in recent years than Steph Curry and Jimmy Butler. To me it gives them a non-zero chance of a ring. So it might not be likely, but it’s not impossible. 

Ivan: They probably weren’t going to make the playoffs at all, which is kind of a prerequisite for championship contention, so if we believe this helps them in the wins column, then sure, they’re closer to the ring. Butler is a beast in the arena of 16 games, and if he holds true to form, that’ll certainly be exciting to witness. 

But man. Boston, Cleveland, OKC – the talent and relative youth of those teams really stifle my pipe dream. 

Apricot: Yes. The team was stuck being mid before the trade, so now at least there’s a hope that the team will make noise this season or next, and it didn’t cost any of the young players. 

If Jimmy had been around this season, GSW would have won maybe, say, 4 to 7 of the 10 games they horribly blew big leads late when Steph got trapped. That would instantly put them in the second tier behind OKC by record.

I’m excited to watch, which was less true before the trade.

Daniel: We just went from a .500 team with zero chance of a deep run to having Playoff Jimmy "I'll-take-your-soul-and-your-lunch-money" Butler alongside Steph and Dray. Is it likely we're raising banner #5 of the Steph-Dray era? Well, if we boiled down Golden State’s successes by only the ones that were likely, we’d barely have any success at all. But Butler's given the Celtics more nightmares than Steph, and that's saying something. A non-zero chance at a ring beats whatever mathematical impossibility we were working with before. Plus, watching Jimmy go full "practice intensity" on some young playoff teams might be worth the price of admission alone.

Dr. Tom: I think it solidifies the team to where they should be thinking seriously about making a push to avoid the play-in altogether. But I think next season is when actual contending expectations should be there for a Steph-Draymond-Jimmy Butler team. I wrote about it here where I compared the move to the Mavericks trading for Kyrie Irving. It didn’t all come together right after they made the trade (now, they were doing some pretty explicit tanking), but then in the first full season they made that NBA Finals run. 

What’s the long-term outlook from this move?

Patrick: I mean the Curry era doesn’t have a long-term outlook. Steph Curry is 37. Draymond is 35. So it doesn’t change much from that point of view. Beyond this season it feels like a lot to ask these three to carry the load for a whole regular season and playoffs but maybe you don’t need them to. Load manage, and get them into the postseason and let them rip. Having not given up any long-term assets yet, and with Kuminga, Podz, and Moody all stepping up, maybe they can do that. 

And of course there’s nothing to preclude another big move in the summer. This team feels closer to contention to me today than it did last week but might still be a move away - and they have the pieces to pull something off if they need to. 

Joe Lacob’s going to have to pony up the dough for a Kuminga extension alongside Jimmy’s new contract, but I doubt they’d have kept him at the trade deadline if they weren’t planning to bite that bullet. I do wonder as well if Kuminga on a newly minted contract might be the matching salary in another run at Markkanen in the summer, who would feel like a much better fit with his size and shooting. As ever though dealing with Danny Ainge would not be straightforward.

Keeping below the second apron might be tricky though. That comes with plenty of restrictions but if it’s only a season or two before Steph, Dray, and Jimmy come off the books they might just do it.

Ivan: Hope for lightning in a bottle, maybe this year, maybe next year, and maaaaybe the year after. But really the long-term outlook is that Dunleavy has crafted a massive reset button for the summer of ‘28. This move, I think, paints the picture more clearly than ever before: the Steph era, one that brought four rings and put the Warriors on the map after decades in the wilderness, has a final, numbered chapter. Will we get a final climax or just denouement? We won’t have to wait too long to find out.

Apricot: I’ve seen a few analysts say that the Two Timelines is finally dead. I feel the exact opposite. I had thought this trade season GSW would have to decide whether to choose the Second Timeline and stick with the young guys (JK, Moody, TJD, BP, Gui, Quentin) and watch Steph and Dray try to age with dignity, or choose the First Timeline and trade them for a lower-tier star for a one or two years of near-contention before being straight bad for years. 

Instead, they managed to get bargain basement Jimmy Butler AND keep the whole Second Timeline. And if it all blows up, it’s easier to trade Jimmy plus picks (and/or young guys) for a star compared to trading the mega platter of 4 players that went out for Jimmy. There is some opportunity cost that comes with signing JB to a big extension. But after my discussion with Perks, it doesn’t seem that this will affect re-signing JK or Steph or really anyone.

TWO TIMELINES IS BACK! 

Daniel: Let's cut to the chase: Steph's 37, Dray's 35, and Father Time remains undefeated (except against LeBron, apparently). But keeping our young core intact while adding Butler? Nice work. Joe Lacob might need to channel his venture capitalist spirit and bet big one more time.

Dr. Tom: Not giving up Kuminga, Moody, or Podziemski is what makes this so appealing as a move. Could Butler be a player, if Steph can’t carry the entire load like he’s been doing/goes into late Celtics/Heat-era Ray Allen mode, that could be the savvy veteran alongside those young guys? But it’s a win-now move that also doesn’t completely disrupt the future plans. As badly as I wanted KD back on the Warriors (and believe me, I badly wanted that to happen), it would’ve entailed giving up on that future/those young guys. Being able to hang onto them while also getting a player in Butler who provides more with what the Warriors need now (as opposed to this version of Andrew Wiggins) is real great work.