107 Comments
Feb 26, 2021Liked by punk basketball

Nice article on Kerr and coach challenges this year: https://www.nbcsports.com/bayarea/warriors/steve-kerr-changed-mind-challenge-rule-explains-warriors-strategy

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Steph's defensive effort was really evident last game. Thinking it was a combination of desire to beat a strong team and rough shooting night. Conserving energy on the defensive end is a bad look when the shots aren't dropping.

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I would think that it would be other way. When his 3 pts are not falling, he has to split/escape double/triple teams to get to the basket as he did last game. Thats alot more bumps and bruises and emotional determination.

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I dunno, I think Steph always works hard on the defensive end, but some teams make him work harder than others. It's never been an effort issue with him, just a question of being a little smarter about helping off while still covering his responsibilities, not reaching, etc.

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He was being a little extra pesky though it seemed like. He had a sequence where he was getting his hands into everything, knocking the ball around. But I do agree overall Steph works a lot harder on D then he gets credit for.

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Feb 26, 2021Liked by punk basketball

Maybe KO is inspiring him with all of his pokes at the ball! Steph has to work extra hard because he has normal reach, unlike basically the rest of the team lol

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Maybe all I'm saying is his D seemed especially timely. Locked shots are way down though! JK

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Don’t look now, but the Warriors are currently the #3 defense in the league, after the Lakers and Utah.

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Feb 26, 2021Liked by punk basketball

Oh no, I looked! After you told me not to.

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> turns to stone

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Feb 26, 2021Liked by Eric Apricot

🔥 Jessup 🔥 10/15 FG, 4/7 3P

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7X6Jkc6iQ2c

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18 pts / 47.8 FG% on 14.8 FGA / 54.3 3pt% on 5.9 3ptA / 83 FT% / 4.0 reb / 2.1 ast / 1.2 tov per36.

At 6'7" (can't find wingpsan tho), and looking like he's hitting 3s all sorts of ways in the NBL, as well as slashing attacking closeouts, running the break, like damn, what's not to get excited about him?

Knee surgery in 2018 prolly sapped some explosiveness, but if he can be a 6'7" 3pt shooter and bring hustle on the defensive end, he'll be immensely valuable to the squad.

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Not to take away from all those fantastic plays, question for me how he does in a game with much more physicality as is true for NBA. NBL seems to be not as physical.

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Ball seems to be dealing with the physicality. I’m mostly concerned with how JJ does trying to deal with the speed of the NBA, especially having to defend.

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Yeah. That too. He needs to join Curry's school of how to get stronger as you get older.

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Why is he not on the roster this year again?

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author

He signed with the NBL in August and the draft didn’t happen until November. In a normal year he would have been drafted by June. All part of Odin’s plan for GSW to keep their pick this year

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Feb 26, 2021Liked by punk basketball

JJ, Paschall, Oubre and Wiseman/Looney on the second team next year is kind of eye-popping.

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With Mannion?

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I know Oubre is far from a lock but man...

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The Danger Man!

I’m starting to believe.

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“Justinian Jessop, who lines up a three and as per normal, makes it.”

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author

Pretty dazzling highlight reel. I want to believe!

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I’m starting to. To my eye test, he’s always looked a little heavy-legged, especially when compared to his most usual comp, Duncan Robinson. I still don’t think he’s as light on his feet as Robinson, but he seems to have an efficiency of movement that can make up for a lot of that. He’s definitely more than just a spot up shooter, at least in the NBL.

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Jordan Poole with 26 pts on 9/18 shooting yesterday and Mannion with 12 assists and 4 steals with 0 turnovers even though his shooting was still marginal. I want to believe that as well. With Jessup, I'm encouraged ny the fact that LaMelo is actually shooting better in the NBA than he did in the NBL, and Jessup's shooting form really should work anywhere. On the other had, the Jessup's team lost that game.

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> Jessup's shooting form really should work anywhere

Yea, this is what's most encouraging to me. He gets his shot of fairly quickly and his shots aren't just going in, they're barely touching rim.

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Wow ... if JJ shoots better in the NBA than the NBL he’s gonna break the league with his 50%+ three point shooting.

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I don't think that's going to happen, but I don't think he will suddenly become a 30% 3pt shooter in the NBA either. Of course LaMelo was 3 years younger, so you would expect hi to improve just with age and experience.

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We’d be one southpaw backup PG away from being able to run out a hella “sinister” starting five featuring Jessup, Bazemore, Oubre, and Wiseman. Paging Mike Conley?

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Feb 26, 2021Liked by punk basketball

Long read but here goes. Where else can I geek out like this with the rare possibility that somebody might read this? I've been thinking about what's it gonna take to get the dubs from a five hundred team to a nice playoff run this year. Here's what I've noticed, mostly looking at the rotations from the last two games via popcorn machine and the NBA lineups stats.

Our starting 5 is solid (Curry, Oubre, Wiggins, Draymond, Looney). Of 5 man lineups that have played more than 100 minutes together, their +/- per 48 is first in the whole NBA (+26.3)! They may also be the most expensive, but that ain't my problem... We can figure that they will play the first 6min of the 1st and 3rd, as well as the second 6 min of the 2nd and 4th. Maybe you take Looney out in the 4th and play small if you need to (sub in JTA or Paschall). Of course we'd all love Oubre to finish with both hands, Wiggins to never iso, and Draymond to make his floaters, but we are lucky to have such a good starting 5 when our 2nd best player is injured.

The first rotation (2nd 6min of the 1st and 2nd 6 min of the 3rd) has fit a pattern. Normally Kerr has pulled a wing (Oubre or Wiggins), and also switched centers. I think we have to assume Wiseman keeps getting those minutes cuz he needs to play. Most recently, Baze has been coming in for Wiggins, which is my preference. I think Wiggins is a better fit with the 2nd unit than Oubre because he can make his own shot more consistently. Interestingly, the Curry/Oubre/Bazemore/Draymond/Wiseman 5 man line-up has played pretty well. Only 23 minutes played, but +32.9 per 48! (even better than the starting 5). Now the question is if this is sustainable, but I'd like to think that if Wiseman can keep his head on straight, he makes up for some of Wiggins lost scoring, and maybe this can be a pretty good lineup. So now we have the first and third quarters playing well, and the second half of the second and 4th.

Here's where it gets dicey. In the first half of the 2nd and 4th, Curry, Draymond, and Oubre all sit, otherwise they are playing the whole game. Wiggins can play those minutes. Wiseman has only played 12 other minutes, so figure he gets those minutes as well. Unfortunately, we need to bring in Wannamaker at PG, and either JTA or Paschall at the 4. And we have to decide between Damion Lee or Bazemore at the other wing. I know LGW loves JTA, but we've really needed some scoring in the 2nd unit, so Paschall has gotten the nod. Last couple games Kerr played Lee over Bazemore. But none of these lineups are exciting to me. Paschall is fun to watch score, but his all around game just doesn't seem made for winning (one of the lowest +/- on the Warriors). Wannamaker honestly doesn't seem like much of a player. Wiggins can play down to those around him. It's great to see Wiseman get the minutes, but in this bench mob, I don't see him really developing or playing his best. Arrgh! So what to do? I think we need to give Poole a shot at PG for the second unit, and possibly Nico as well. I'm not saying they are better than Brad, but worth a shot, and they are more likely to get minutes on the team next year. I would try JTA at the 4 instead of Paschall a bit and see how it goes. Maybe his fundamentals and leadership (i.e pointing a lot) on D can help Wiseman and the rest of these guys play good team D and open up the floor for good passing. Bazemore vs Lee at the other wing I'm not sure, probably good to give them both a run. Poole/Lee/Wiggins/JTA/Wiseman. Could that be a good bench unit? Is it good enough?

Another option would be to split up Curry and Draymond a bit (maybe draymond sits in the first and third). Then have Draymond run point for the 2nd unit. It's probably a net loss, since we see how much Draymond helps Curry be awesome, but might work out.

Last option is think about making a trade. I think that Brad is the weak link, could we get a decent backup PG before the trade deadline? I'd even be willing to give up Paschall, cuz I just don't see him making the players around him better, and his scoring should be attractive to somebody.

In any event, I think there is no way we make a playoff run with our current bench unit so I hope Kerr starts really trying some things out to see what we can get going there. Curious if anyone has some better ideas.

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Wiseman has been dominant in garbage time when he can just be aggressive. The only time he’s played without the starter in meaningful minutes was last game and that was all with Paschall dominating the ball.

I absolutely think Wiseman’s impact on playoff success over the next two years will be as a bench scorer and matchup related big (once he improves his D.) I would love to see a bench built around Wiggins/Baze/Wiseman & 2 passers JTA/Poole/Mannion/Lee even Wiggins might not have to play the whole time.

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What about JTA as the backup point guard/initiator on the 2nd team? He understands the offense shows he can lead the team.

IDK if his handle is good enough for the drive and kicks and he is still making some head slapping turn overs when he first comes in the game but if he can knows the role I think he can solve that.

Put him on the 2nd team and you get a defensive monster with JTA/Oubre/Bazemore/Paschall/Wiseman

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Feb 26, 2021Liked by punk basketball

JTA doesn't have the shot creation to be true point. Same issue with Wanamaker.

They best suited as secondary playmakers, which is why the bench looks best when Paschall has his game going and Ws can run point-EP.

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Wannamaker got no respect from the Pacers as a ball handler, so might as well try others. It was funny and a bit sad to see the Pacers hound Wannamaker with a single back up PG and try that for one play against Curry when he came back in, Curry burned them, and they immediately realized the error of their ways and went back to double and triple teams.

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Great post. I kind of balk at the criticism of Paschall. It feels he has a very reliable skill like an SDot turnaround or DWest jumper that is an almost guaranteed bucket. Other than that enjoyed the insight.

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author

this is fantastic!

I'm going to steal some of the lineup stuff for today's preview

On EP, I know I'm not the only one that has picked up on the frequent quips about him dealing with some sort of vague knee issues. He really looks like a different player than the one that opened the season blowing by everyone with a nice quick first step.

And backup PG is such a hard position to fill. Teams are so hungry for ball-handling creators that can shoot and defense that those dudes are almost immediately gobbled up in a starting role. So what's left is players that are missing one of those key attributes. Wanamaker would (I think) feel like a much more successful acquisition if his shot was falling at anywhere near his career averages

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> And backup PG is such a hard position to fill.

Absolutely. I looked around at guys who could maybe be comparable and the options were not great. Ricky Rubio, who's less of a scorer than Wanamaker but is generally considered a good defender? $17 mil this year and he's been playing worse than Brad. Iguodala, who's now two years past when we last had him and his age was already showing? $15mil. Ish Smith? $6 mil. De'Anthony Melton? $7 mil.

Here's a short list of guys who are in the same role & salary range as Wanamaker:

PJ Dozier (Denver)

Raul Neto (Washington)

Isaac Bonga (Washington)

Cameron Payne (Phoenix)

Tyler Johnson (Brooklyn)

So yeah, bringing up Poole or Mannion—or just keeping Wanamaker where he is—looks pretty reasonable.

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I guess that’s why not every team wins the championship. Even if you know where you want an upgrade, you can’t just snap your fingers and make it happen.

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Feb 26, 2021Liked by punk basketball

It looked like it was hurting him a bit vs. The Knicks at one point as he seemed to be favoring it.

It seems to me like he came into camp a little out of shape and when he finally got into shape, his knee started bothering him. If his knee gets better, I’m hoping his hops come back and he can combine that explosiveness that he showed last season with an improved ability to play within the system (I.e. find open teammates when he has the ball).

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I think you're dramatically underrating Paschall's ability to just score the ball out of isolation, a desperately needed skillset on our team. Other than Curry, nobody can really stress the defense like that which means that our shooters/ball movement is less effective. I think if we can just get Poole to play solid defense + better offense than Wannamaker, then our bench squad will have its problem solved.

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I enjoyed your geeking out. It’s a good read.

‘Brad is the weak link’ - absolutely. He is a solid on ball defender, but he has struggled to show the veteran leadership we were hoping in the second unit. I’m not completely sure why that is, but I suspect it’s been hard for him to adapt to the style of GSW play. So leadership & playmaking need be addressed in this line up, but where to go to get it? Honestly I’m not sure.

EP has been giving us good minutes in the last couple of games. His defense is much improved and is starting to have a real impact on oppositions offenses. It’s because of this I lean away from a trade; I think he could develop into a more rounded player, I just don’t think he has a niche/identity yet. Bully ball is just a stepping stone...I hope!

Like you mentioned Damion & JTA have on court leadership in spades. They both know where to be on offense and can both defend well.

So...maybe roll the dice with JP, see how his D holds up and run a JP/Wiggs/DLee/JTA-EP (split or match up based)/JW line up? I’m sure the coaching staff will come up with something waaay better than that, but I guess that’s why they get paid the big bucks and are also coaches.

Next year I think it might be Nico Time...(probably not going to be the same as Dame Time).

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I think there's a chance that hoping Wanamaker gets back to his Boston shooting percentages from three after the All-Star break is more realistic than hoping Poole becomes an NBA-level scorer. Some of the G-League highlights look impressive but he's still not quite a sharpshooter from three (34% in these 10 games) and his assist to turnover ratio is ugly for a guy whose only chance in the NBA is at PG (3.7 assists to 4.7 turnovers). And he's <29% from three in his NBA career (although Wanamaker is down to <34% at this point so the bar for Poole keeps getting lowered). Poole's FT% lately is elite so hopefully the three pointer can catch up but it's far from a guarantee imo.

He also needs to prove that he can get by his defenders in the NBA. Some of these highlights have shown excellent craftiness, but it'd probably be easier to see them translating if he was just blowing by guys. Perhaps that craftiness can translate but it's too early to tell imo.

Also, unless Mannion drastically improves his shot, I wouldn't give him more than a two-way next season. They need to build a roster to compete for a championship, he's a project.

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Largely agree with both ndubs and this. I think either Mannion or Poole are the guys we already have who have the biggest chance of working as the second unit's primary ballhandler and assist guy. But both of them are still pretty raw, so maybe that's a spot we can upgrade with a trade. Not sure if anyone might be available who's a good ball-handler, defender, and available without giving up more than we get back.

And yeah, maybe there's room for Draymond to occupy that role for a couple minutes without Steph... not sure splitting them up is ideal for either one, but suppose we do, then we're also fiddling with some "Starters Minus Draymond" units (maybe to close the 1st+3rd), which could be interesting. Putting JTA in the Draymond role is an obvious attempt; or you could go with a 3-guards lineup with Baze or Lee alongside Steph, Oubre and/or Wiggins, and a center. If Quese gets healthy again Kerr could maybe try him and Looney together in a Steph + no Draymond lineup, too.

I'm on the fence about Paschall's role going forward. He's been pretty important to the second unit as the only guy who can create his own offense. I'm not so sure about his defense, which has been significantly better at Center than PF for some reason; and his offense seems to come and go from night to night, which is probably a matchup thing, though it's also weird because some nights he just doesn't manage to finish anything and other nights he seems to score on every play. I have a hunch that effect has to do with whether or not he's getting the whistle he wants: if certain types of contact don't get him to the line then he just gets stopped consistently. So, his future depends on whether he can adjust on those nights, and whether he can defend respectably as a PF. But yeah, a lot of advanced stats really seem to hate him more than I can understand from the eye test. I guess I could see trading high on him depending on what's on offer.

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“... some nights he just doesn't manage to finish anything and other nights he seems to score on every play.”

That sounds like a guy who could be dealing with knee issues. Having dealt with knee issues most of my life, my athleticism swings wildly based on how my knees feel at any given moment.

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People who don’t have chronic knee issues don’t understand how it swings not only your explosiveness but also your stability and balance. Swelling can occur pretty randomly depending on what he is dealing with in the knee

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Would be a real bummer if Paschall’s inconsistency is related to knee troubles. He’s fun to watch when he’s explosive, but he’s a pretty heavy guy so that can’t be easy on his body.

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Feb 26, 2021Liked by punk basketball

Ditto all the comments, awesome article

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Good post, 3D. Last night's game was the first game this season, that I saw the Warriors come together, fight hard both on offense and defense and didn't rely on a comeback win and miracle shooting. Green played like a well oiled machine. Almost a triple D but I was especially impressed with his D, and forceful attack on the basket. He even hit 2 FTs near the close of the game. Wiseman, although fouling out, looked terrific in his short stint. There was no clumsiness or wondering what he should do on his face. This is a great sign for things that I hope to see more consistently for the rest of the season. While they still have bouts of poor shooting, the main problem of Oubre's seems to be gone for the most part. He's become a valuable part of the team and is a special player.

Just wanted to give a shout out to Sabonis. A highly gifted athlete and player who is one of the special talents in the NBA. He is blessed with an Oubre-like motor and physique that allows him to be as mobile as they come. His dad never had that quality and to watch him running the floor is a sight to behold. As strong as they come. Indiana has a great big man tandem in Sabonis and Turner. They are good to go for years...............plus, TJ Warren and Lavert, who are out. This is a future powerhouse team.

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Watching Sabonis, I was thinking that growing up, there was probably a lot of talk around “Too bad he didn’t inherit his dad’s size”, but his physique is much more suited to today’s game.

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I like watching Sabonis as well, he's a straight goon and its a pleasure watching him make all those veteran bump plays with his elbows and forearm shivers. Nothing dirty, but definitely excessively physical combined with good shooting/passing? I love me some of that!

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GSOM seems pretty anti-Draymond nowadays. I see a lot of shots at him, subtle or not

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Feb 26, 2021Liked by punk basketball

LGW is the last good Dubs forum. GSOM and especially r/warriors are god-awful

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author

Oh no, I was planning to spend some time at r/warriors to see what the masses are thinking about

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I stopped going there cuz that subreddit is as bipolar as the warriors are inconsistent. Loving a player one day then wanting them shipped out immediately the next. Like half the posts there are just trade scenarios. Really irritating those fuckin people are lol

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Feb 25, 2021Liked by punk basketball

The level of discourse there is not anywhere near what it used to be. Makes me love LGW all the more.

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Feb 26, 2021Liked by punk basketball

Yeah, well, the people who were interested in high-level discourse mostly moved here...

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To be fair, I'm barely reaching mid-level...

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You’re a AAAA poster. I’d be happy to get a later 2nd-rounder for you.

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Feb 25, 2021Liked by punk basketball

Yeah, I started the season on GSOM after a hiatus from forums in general and came back disappointed. Glad I remembered about LGW's existence.

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Yes and no. There are some older members there. Sleepy logs in from time to time. A lot of people though are newer or really opinionated. Those are the people who keep calling for Dray's head or won't budge.

Is ScotWarrior over here? I feel like he would enjoy the discourse a lot more. I would tell those other guys to stfu but Sbn keeps logging me out of my account and feels like I always have to reset my password.

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Scot is one of the main contributors over there now and it's really only a handful that feel the need to post every two min's how much they hate Dray but that makes the site really hard to read.

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Feb 26, 2021Liked by Eric Apricot

Gosh, that just reminded me how miserable the GSOM system was for logging in, weird dark pattern trap clicks, loading jumps, etc.

We don't have the ability to turn posts green here and the gifs aren't the same when they're not embedded, but damn. Everything else about this site is sooooo much more usable. I'm thankful for that much all over again.

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Why, these days all they want is clicks. I would not be surprised if there's a plant to rile things up.

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Trade Steph for CP3 and Book!! Who says no?

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The mods SBNation is paying as full time employees? Hah.

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Feb 25, 2021Liked by punk basketball, Daniel Hardee

Awesome article, D-cube. Me thinks your articles is reaching another level, as are Dubs.

In the same tweet thread, Shane Young has Warriors at #5 in NERTG over last 15 games!!

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Well , lets get some actual wins to match that Net Rating! We've got a murders row coming up, and if we can be competitive in these games, then its time to get excited!

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author

Thanks very much!

You know, I've been doing double duty with Daniel (back next game!!!) Out with his wrist thing and I think its sharpened my game a little bit. Plus, these guys are really fun to cover. Every game theres something good and something bad

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author

D Cube... hmm it has a ring to it

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Feb 25, 2021Liked by punk basketball

Here is the full Dray interview video:

https://youtu.be/Zow0BYHC5rE

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This is such a fantastic Q and A with Draymond. It makes me think how much I would pay to just watch Dray sit down with someone that really knows Basketball and just talk strategy, stories, etc. Man just the thought of Dray and Kobe sitting talking about their love about basketball makes me sad.

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And it is awesome through and through.

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Did Green’s comments feel a lot like positive reinforcement after a good couple defensive games by Curry? Felt like Green had that ready to go as soon as Steph put some good D out there.

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Coach Dray being lightyears

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author

That was my read too. Encouragement to stay locked in on D

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Feb 25, 2021Liked by punk basketball

Great article! I was only able to listen on the radio, so that first video of the 2-man game between Curry and Draymond is a revelation!

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deletedFeb 26, 2021Liked by punk basketball
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Man that sucks for the kid.

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:(

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I thought meniscus is the most minor thing to tear in your knee and the can ‘scope it.

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You can scope it but the statistical evidence suggests doing nothing other than pain management and PT works just as well.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/27432053/

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author

ironically, I had this same deal (scoped, skateboard injury) around the same age. It was mostly ok, but it was the same knee that blew out and ended my basketball career a couple years ago

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Luckily, he’s only a sophomore, so he has his junior, senior and one more season (college or otherwise) before playing in the NBA.

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I love this. So hoping he develops into a solid B/U PG for us

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Seems like he's ok? I think he's still in the game judging from the play-by-play 🙏

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the all-star break is almost here. I gotta imagine he'll take it pretty easy during that, even with the all-star game.

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I can'tr believe the ASG is really still a thing...

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Lacob better be taking/sending him on private jet. Hopefully Steph can be in and out in a day and rest up for 6 days

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Would be a real shame if the private jet had some mechanical issues and Stephen had to stay home.

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