The case for re-signing Jonathan Kuminga | by Dr. Duncan Stein

Copium, hopium, or more deranged ramblings? You decide!

It’s the return of our favorite mad scientist, Dr Duncan Stein. Last summer, he dropped a heavily researched Top 75-ish NBA Players of all time series. Today, he settles the question on everyone’s mind… - Eric Apricot

One of the advantages of being some sort of mad scientist is the spirits in the cabinet are mindbending. With little Golden State Warriors news to stave off the long summer days of basketball boredom I plundered my supplies and pondered the fate of one Jonathan Kuminga.

There’s no getting away from it, this whole Jonathan Kuminga experience has been frustrating and exhausting for all involved. The drawn out restricted free agency saga feels like the logical conclusion of the whole business.

Restricted free agency is always tough and the market this year is particularly constrained. So barring some miracle, or a trade taking back cents on the dollar, it looks like Kuminga is coming back (note - this sentence likely guarantees that the first comment on the article will be a Shams Bluesky link announcing a sign-and-trade).

If you’d told me a few weeks ago I’d be writing this article I’d have choked on the lightly soiled second-hand bag of vegetable chips I’d have gladly traded him for. But when I saw the basketball equivalent of a lightly soiled, second-hand bag of vegetable chips the Sacramento Kings reportedly offered containing one Dario “Turnstile” Saric, an aged and injured recent rookie and two second-round picks, I in fact choked on that.

So instead I took a deep breath, imbibed my potions, and thought about how the Golden State Warriors and Jonathan Kuminga got here, and what a reunion that might actually work would look like. And to my surprise I found myself flip-flopping back into the “keep him” camp pretty easily.

A frustrating experience

At the time Kuminga was drafted I was an enthusiast. The Warriors have always needed athletic wings - from Andre Iguodala and Harrison Barnes, to Kevin Durant (and still Iguodala), to Andrew Wiggins. The path of Warriors championship teams have always had one of those guys. True as the Warriors drafted Kuminga we didn’t know quite what NBA Champion and All Star Andrew Wiggins would rise to in the playoffs, but he’d certainly turned his reputation from disused NBA pumpkin into a productive, useful player. The chance to draft the next in that lineage was exciting.

For the last three seasons Kuminga has forced his way into the rotation, played well in spurts then seen his role disappear. In his sophomore season, Kerr was given the full two timelines experience to juggle and responded by playing a ridiculous and low-key sabotage lineup of Kuminga, JaMychal Green, and Wiseman, which obviously was never going to work. Instead Kuminga was the odd man out and we saw plenty of a dubious two-way guy for portions of the early season.

When Wiggins took the time to be with his ailing father in 2023 Kuminga stepped up and played well, helping the Warriors clinch the 6 seed. Then Wiggins returned and Kuminga was instantly excised from the playoff rotation. This was really my first Kerr-related frustration - at least in that early stage of his career getting Kuminga some playoff action would have aided their future. But I understood - the Warriors were trying to defend their title, already had a boom-or-bust young player experience going on with Jordan Poole post-punch and Wiggins, GP2, and Moses Moody had already demonstrated their playoff chops. Nobody expected Lonnie Walker IV.

So on to the next season and new hope. But again Kuminga was the odd man out, at one point being entirely exorcised from the rotation. Only to prove to possess the athleticism and force that was needed in an old, tired, and increasingly cranky rotation in a win against Portland. From then on he was announced to be back in the rotation, but then sort of out again, then complainy-to-the-media which never looks good. A clear-the-air talk followed and Kerr eventually settled on a lineup of Steph-Podz-Wiggs-JK-post suspensions Dray which roared back and got them back into playoff contention over the second half of the season.

Kuminga was playing his best stint yet for the Warriors with a consistent role. Then a badly timed injury saw TJD put in for the last 6 games, allowing Draymond to not play center and roam more freely on defense. Kuminga recovered for the play-in game but Kerr stuck with the lineup from the last 6 games rather than the lineup that had got them back from the brink and they were absolutely pummeled by Sacramento.

There I was thinking that they’d uncovered a working lineup so going into this season expected Kerr to go with that. But in a desire to not have Green play center for a whole season (a perfectly reasonable idea) Kerr juggled things again and had Kuminga off the bench. Again fits and starts across the middle of an up-and-down, though mostly-down season, including a proclaimed “he’s the future, Dray’s coming off the bench” which lasted maybe two games? Then the really bad ankle injury and return to a totally different team, struggles to fit, publicly excised from the rotation again, then Curry’s injury and a mini-run in the playoffs to prove he can do something useful but not win any games, and here we are. For a contract year that went almost as badly as it could have done for Kuminga - it definitely felt like one step forwards and two steps back.

Phew, I am exhausted just writing that. Maybe it is better to just burn our bridges all round.

The talent is there

But no, the reason this has been so frustrating is because there is talent there. And what I’ve written definitely makes it sound like it’s all Kerr. But we all know it’s not. Kerr has won 5 rings as a player and 4 as a coach. He’s seen everything from Jordan to Duncan to Steph. That’s 3 of the top 6 basketball BEASTs! He is tasked with maximising Curry’s shrinking window. It’s a huge responsibility and it’s bigger than Kuminga.

If Kuminga could just defend with his tools consistently he’d definitely have seen more time. If he had a better handle, he’d be closer to the player he wants to be and he’d be harder to keep off the court. If he could shoot a bit better the spacing would be a bit less compromised (and maybe he’d knock down the free throws he draws at a very high rate).

Honestly if my coach had nine rings with three of the greatest players of all time I wouldn’t be working out with murals of Kobe on the walls, and mid-range iso YouTube highlights playing in my mind, I’d be listening to everything he said and doing that.

But this is where I can squint myself into being an optimist. When given a consistent role Kuminga has locked into the defense more, run the floor, attacked the boards better. It’s when he’s jerked around that stuff suffers. And the skill elements are things that can be improved - and from credible reporting (ie Anthony Slater) he is definitely working on that.

Whatever happens with this next season or two the Warriors are going to desperately need athletic point-of-attack defense to pick up opposing teams’ best perimeter players, and secondary scoring behind Curry. Butler is many great things but can not be counted on for either of those at 36 years old for 82 games in the regular season, and as we saw in the playoffs can’t always turn up the scoring dial.

While I was looking slightly sideways at the playoff effort where Kuminga put up stats in four consecutive losses, I actually think they might have won that Game 3 had Draymond not fouled out late (thanks Scott Foster). They were right there… and then things might have looked quite different and Kuminga’s 30 points on 11-18 shooting and 5-6 from the line, 6 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 blocks would have rung out loud.

I don’t think it’s hard to see Kuminga doing both those things - using his undoubted athletic tools to defend man-to-man at point of attack and then be a second option on offense - with a good offseason of work, a consistent role and a bit more trust from his coach. I don’t think we’re talking about needing a massive leap in basketball IQ, something that rarely happens, to be genuinely useful here. There is a version of Kuminga that gives the Warriors what they need right now.

Let’s not forget he’s still just 22 years old, the same age as one of this year’s draft pick Will Richard and several years younger than more recent draft picks Trayce Jackson-Davis and Quinten Post.

The next timeline

The real issue is not the “Warriors system” but the spacing in the frontcourt and fit specifically with Draymond as well as Jimmy. There is an answer here though.

As we depressingly see Kevon Looney leave, the latest in Kerr’s “foundational six” following Jordan Poole in the 2023 offseason, Klay in the 2024 offseason, and Wiggins at the trade deadline, it’s clear the next Warriors contender will have to look different from the 2022 champions. The only mainstays are Steph and Draymond, who will be 38 and 36 respectively by the playoffs.

Is Al Horford the answer? Horford is a good player and will be a useful addition but honestly I can not see how starting a frontcourt with a combined age of 111 years old is a viable option in the 2025-26 NBA season. This is a conference headed up by OKC’s youth and athletic talent, Houston’s size and physicality, and Nikola Jokic with an impressively retooled supporting cast. (FWIW I do think they’ll miss Looney more than they think, but that’s for another time.)

The reality is that this iteration is not the death of the second timeline. As noted by some esteemed DNHQ writers at the time of the Jimmy Butler trade, this is a pivot into the second timeline.

There is no world in which the Warriors contend behind 38-year-old Steph and 36-year-old Jimmy and Draymond without the youth stepping up. That’s a Podz leap, Moody and Post continuing to develop, and yes the enigma that is Kuminga. Reaching the playoffs intact with those three old guys gives you a punchers shot, but you’ve got to get there, and when you do you need contributions from elsewhere to stand a realistic chance of beating the top teams.

So when I think about the coming season and roster I think a large part of the answer lies in extending that 2-game experiment of starting JK and bringing Draymond off the bench into an 82-game goal come what may.

I’d propose a proper look at this rotation:

Steph Curry is Steph Curry. Just don’t get injured please.

Brandin Podziemski - is it unrealistic to hope for a third year leap? That is when many players make that jump. Along with his hustle and brains, a more consistent jumper, a more aggressive approach, and a role as a secondary creator and ballmover rather than the back up point guard experiment Podz 3.0 feels perfectly attainable.

Jimmy Butler is Jimmy. Probably not Himmy until the playoffs but he’s starting 50-60 games unless injury strikes. He can do Jimmy things and be the defensive brains and playmaking forward when Draymond is off the court and then form that devastating duo to close.

Your starting power forward… Jonathan Kuminga. Your athleticism, on-ball defense, secondary scorer is right here. Think Barnes starting over Iguodala and you see the idea.

Quinten Post - the best shooter bar Curry on the roster? You need someone to soak up the minutes and space the floor in the regular season and that ain’t a 39-year-old. This is a bet that this chess grandmaster can master the intricacies of NBA defense and be passable on that end despite his limitations. I feel like we saw plenty of evidence of that in the stretch run last season.

That is a starting five that has youth, athleticism, spacing, hustle, and the two big guns.

Your bench mob is led by Draymond, vociferously campaigning for 6th man of the year award (he needs something to keep shouting about). That’ll keep him to 25-30 mins a game, keeping him fresh for the stretch run and the playoffs where he’ll probably start at least some games and definitely finish all of them. It’s less Iguodala security blanket, and more like a can of petrol and a match but that might be what they need.

You’ve got Melton as the back up third guard providing defense, a bit of playmaking and decent shooting, Buddy to do Buddy things, Moody to back up Jimmy and JK, and Horford in the David West ceremonial role, providing experience, brains and shooting to stabilise things along with some spot starts in certain matchups (Denver springs to mind).

Beyond that depth of Gui to do the Dani Rojas thing in January when they really need it, TJD to provide some athleticism to the frontline and a bit of Draymond stuff when he’s out, then maybe Will Richard ( who I have an irrational feeling about) as a 3-and-D depth guy. Ideally you’d have one more true point guard to avoid pressing Podz into backup pg duty- my preference would be Malcolm Brogdon if he is still alive.

To me, that’s got a solid chance of being a decent team in the regular season, building the confidence and experience of the young guys with consistent roles, while keeping the miles off some of the team’s more senior citizens for that late season run. If it clicks you have the pieces you need to make a run and the legs to do it.

The money

Look I’ve been around long enough to know you can’t believe anything leaked in free agency negotiations. Everyone’s got an agenda and if they aren’t a known newsbreaker writing for a credible site it’s probably total BS.

But there’s a pretty clear route here. An average of $25m over 3 years with a player option is the midpoint of all the rumours and allows the Warriors to start lower to avoid apron-related salary cap issues and Kuminga to re-enter free agency in two years just as the Warriors cap opens up - meaning if he hits they can re-sign him but he also has an opportunity to pick his next spot as he enters his prime.

It’s a perfectly tradeable number - indeed much lower and you’ll take yourself out of various potential options as it won’t be enough for salary matching. In this world of increasing cap levels it’ll quickly become fine even if he remains a frustrating experiment. There are teams out there with almost that amount stretched on their caps for the next few years!

The Wiggins experience

There is one thing above all else that still gives me hope for Kuminga. Back at the 2020 trade deadline the Warriors traded for a highly frustrating, inefficient, lackluster defensively but athletic and talented wing. He turned into two-way Wiggs. The change of culture and environment was what he needed to truly blossom.

Why can’t Kuminga do that with the right environment? And if he does, doesn’t that give the Warriors just what they need? So how about making the focus on fixing the environment with a consistent role and fair contract removing some of the drama?

Some say Kuminga is the sort of athletic talent who will “get it” later on, after he’s been traded like Wiggins or Aaron Gordon. But this bruising restricted free agency saga could provide the reset moment equivalent to the shock of being traded, recalibrating his expectations.

And if all this amounts to a lightly soiled, used bag of vegetable chips then come the trade deadline you can just pivot back to Miami’s alleged interest and trade Kuminga and a pick for a Wiggins return. Steph, Podz, Wiggs, Jimmy, Dray? I’ll roll into the playoffs with that any day.

But first, let’s give this thing one more go - this Kuminga saga might yet surprise us all.

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