If you don't blow it up and rebuild after a 6th and 10th seed finish when your best and most expensive players will be 37, 35, and 35 next season... then when do you blow it up and rebuild?
Looks like DeAngelo Russell is about to hit the market as an unrestricted free agent.
COME ON YOU KNOW YOU WANT TO you sneaky devil, you pretend you don't want him but you COVET his ... um ... his defense? His ... playoff cold streaks ... his .... focus?
I think LeBron and Steph's insane longevity (and to a lesser extent, KD) has messed up GMs and fans. In that, there's this expectation that stars can stay effective when they are old. It's a young man's league.
Just through injuries or physical limitations, inconsistency and ineffectiveness, all the teams that stockpiled old stars are flaming out. Clippers, Bucks, Suns, and obviously even LeBron and Steph's teams this year.
Is a coincidence that the Warriors started winning when JK, Podz, TJD and Moody played more?
Little too early to be counting the Clippers out, and the Bucks are playing without their top 5 player in Giannis and are only down 2-1 after an OT loss.
The only guy over 31 on the Lakers is Lebron, and the only other 3 over 30 are Dinwiddie, AD, and Taurean Prince. But putting all of that youth out there didn’t win them enough games either. I don’t think age matters at all. There’s just a lot of really good players in the league now.
AD’s 31 (and 47 days). He’s been impressively durable this season, but doesn’t strike me as the type of guy who’s gonna hold together that well into his mid 30s.
I am returning to the mothership (Bay Area) for a vacation after many years away (lived in Boise since 2019, and COVID kind of trashed vacations for three years).
Anything new-ish I should know about? It looks like I don't need to worry about not having a Fastpass on the bridges. They will just bill me.
Anything, fun/new in the city or Marin to go to? Can't wait to have some good Manhattan clam chowder at Fish (in Sausalito).
Light years: say goodbye to CP3 and Klay. Buy a second rounder and draft LeBron Jr. Bring in LeBron Sr on a min. Use the rest to add some 3&D/youth. Starters: TJD/LBJ/Dray/JK (with his newly improved great 3 point shooting from summer training with Steph)/Steph. Podz/Wiggins/Moody/Looney/GP2/LBJ JR/some other guys off the bench.
Lebron has been saying he’d go to any team to play with his son. So this is calling his bluff. But I don't actually think this will happen, or is even a good plan.
34 y.o. Dray at the starting 3? I like the overall roster, but if LeBron, TJD, and JK are starting, Dray kinda has to become the 6th man, with Wiggs, Moods, or Podz moving to the starting lineup.
One concern: if LeBron regresses to his career norms as a shooter: the overall shooting/spacing on that team could be pretty terrible.
I watched bits of this game. When the TWolves pushed, the Suns slacked. It was a little surprising to me all the open looks and blown coverages. Beal and Booker both have focus issues that have infected the team is my off the cuff pov.
I think that’s what’s concerned a lot of Suns observers all season, as they’ve been musing, “do these guys even like playing together?” You need a high degree of togetherness to want to fight through adversity (viz. ‘22 after losing GP v Memphis, or after going down 1-2 in the Finals; or ‘19 v Houston after losing KD,; or ‘18 after going down 2-3 to Houston and trailing by 17 in an elimination game; or ‘16 WCF down 3-1; or ‘15 after going down 1-2 to Memphis and Cleveland).
Beyond being kinda soft individually, the Suns seem to lack the required cohesiveness to really want to fight for each other.
Yes. I’ve been hearing all season that the Suns are just going to simply flip that mythical playoffs switch and bear down.
Instead they’re stumbling around in the dark in their pajamas, one foot stuck in the toilet, slapping at the wall and just starting to realize that the damn switch is on the far side of the room.
Ok I'll bite. They can't aggregate salaries if they've over the second apron, which they are until the next free agency year starts. To get under the second apron basically means waiting until July 1st and either letting CP3/ Klay walk, or re-signing Klay at a much lower number (which feels like path a). Also CP3's guarantee date is June 28th - this can be moved but requires both sides to agree. I doubt he'd agree if the reason is so you can trade him back to a team that dumped him. You also have Looney's partial guarantee ahead of that date to deal with, though I suspect they will agree to move that back as they did with Livingston a few years back.
So I think realistically any KD trade has to happen after July 1st and therefore not include CP3, instead involving Wiggins and Looney as salary matching, along with JK, Moody and Podz. Phoenix would likely have other offers so demand some picks so my best guess at a realistic trade offer is Wiggins, Looney, JK, Moody, Podz and 25 and 27 picks (perhaps with some limited protection). You can't take any of those young players out because you can't match the salary otherwise. If GP2 opts into his final year you might be able to add him instead of one/ take Looney out but he's pretty strongly hinted he wants to opt out and renegotiate a long-term deal.
I think that's a good deal for Phoenix - they get younger to get closer to Booker's timeline and have JK's possible All Star upside, and have pieces that fit much better alongside Booker/ Beal with Wiggins, Moody providing wing defense, and Podz solid depth.
The real question to me is whether the Warriors would do it? You'd basically be left with 36/37 year-old Steph, 36-year-old KD, 34 and diminished Klay, 34-year-old Dray who is still great when he controls his anger and stays on the floor, and TJD, who you'd expect to play big minutes as the only player under 34 of the starters! You could renegotiate with GP2 as 6th man and bring him back at something like 3 years, $5m a year, but you're lucky if he's good for 40 games a year at this point.
On paper if they manage to enter the playoffs healthy next season or the one after they might have a decent shot as long as no-one craters (and Steph, KD, and Dray still look pretty good). But to get there how do you fill out a roster 7-14?
Great stuff, Patrick! Always love when you cross the pond to say hello and drop wisdom.
My answer to your “how do you fill out the roster” query: you don’t. That’s too much (for me) to give up. We’re currently witnessing how far the mid-30s generation gets you with no talented young legs to carry them. This will not improve a year from now, when Steph and KD are 37 and 36.
For entertainment purposes only, if I do the deal, my package is: Dray, Wiggs, and Kuminga. Salary matches without us having to throw in EVVRYYYONE. We’d actually need (or be able to) take a small salary back, like Little or Roddy, to help replenish the roster. Heck, have Damion Lee pick up his option and throw him in to add shooting and general good vibes.
Dray has the MSU connection with Ishbia, and fits much better with Book/Beal than KD does. Wiggs and JK give them the long athletic wings they badly need alongside Book and Beal, and fit much better with the Book timeline than KD does. Core: Book, Beal, Ted Cruz Jr., Kuminga, Wiggins, Dray, Nurk. That’s a fabulous team, imo, quite possibly a title contender. (Dray + Nurk would be LOL, but no more LOL than Dray + KD, and then can always flip Nurk in another deal).
That’s already a great deal for them, imo, but if a sweetener is needed. we can also help restore their totally bare asset cupboard with a pick.
Warriors keep Podz, Moods, TJD, and Santos for the young legs needed to supplement the stars. Painful to lose the three guys we’re losing, but we also be getting rid of three questionable shooters and replacing them with an elite one, which (in a 6-11 body) instantly solves a lot of our size and spacing issues. And of course the lack of secondary scorer issue is instantly solved.
Re-sign Klay on a cheap 3/$50M type deal. Sign Jalen Smith (MLE) and Kris Dunn (min) for PG depth, shooting, and defense.
If you don't blow it up and rebuild after a 6th and 10th seed finish when your best and most expensive players will be 37, 35, and 35 next season... then when do you blow it up and rebuild?
Looks like DeAngelo Russell is about to hit the market as an unrestricted free agent.
COME ON YOU KNOW YOU WANT TO you sneaky devil, you pretend you don't want him but you COVET his ... um ... his defense? His ... playoff cold streaks ... his .... focus?
Shams: Dame has strained Achilles. Doubtful for game 4.
I say he's done for the playoffs. Unless the Bucks make the finals.
WTF. Wow. Amazing collapse.
If he's done, they're certainly done. If they weren't already.
They were done as soon as Doc arrived
If only I had as many likes to give this comment as the Bucks have had coaches this year
I think LeBron and Steph's insane longevity (and to a lesser extent, KD) has messed up GMs and fans. In that, there's this expectation that stars can stay effective when they are old. It's a young man's league.
Just through injuries or physical limitations, inconsistency and ineffectiveness, all the teams that stockpiled old stars are flaming out. Clippers, Bucks, Suns, and obviously even LeBron and Steph's teams this year.
Is a coincidence that the Warriors started winning when JK, Podz, TJD and Moody played more?
Little too early to be counting the Clippers out, and the Bucks are playing without their top 5 player in Giannis and are only down 2-1 after an OT loss.
The only guy over 31 on the Lakers is Lebron, and the only other 3 over 30 are Dinwiddie, AD, and Taurean Prince. But putting all of that youth out there didn’t win them enough games either. I don’t think age matters at all. There’s just a lot of really good players in the league now.
AD’s 31 (and 47 days). He’s been impressively durable this season, but doesn’t strike me as the type of guy who’s gonna hold together that well into his mid 30s.
Suns biggest mistake was taking on Beal as their third “star”
"I've never been swept a day in my life," said Suns guard Bradley Beal, who scored a team-high 28 points. "I'll be damned if that happens."
Hard to get swept when you're never in the playoffs.
Greetings, fellow Bay Area-lings,
I am returning to the mothership (Bay Area) for a vacation after many years away (lived in Boise since 2019, and COVID kind of trashed vacations for three years).
Anything new-ish I should know about? It looks like I don't need to worry about not having a Fastpass on the bridges. They will just bill me.
Anything, fun/new in the city or Marin to go to? Can't wait to have some good Manhattan clam chowder at Fish (in Sausalito).
CHASE CENTER BABY
yeah, that wasn't good timing .. if I'd come last month, I could have seen a game.
Light years: say goodbye to CP3 and Klay. Buy a second rounder and draft LeBron Jr. Bring in LeBron Sr on a min. Use the rest to add some 3&D/youth. Starters: TJD/LBJ/Dray/JK (with his newly improved great 3 point shooting from summer training with Steph)/Steph. Podz/Wiggins/Moody/Looney/GP2/LBJ JR/some other guys off the bench.
I'm kinda scratching my head at all these posts saying some star player (Klay, now Lebron) should come to us on a min.
You might as well just ask for Jokic to demand a trade to the Warriors. Both possibilities are equally likely.
Lebron has been saying he’d go to any team to play with his son. So this is calling his bluff. But I don't actually think this will happen, or is even a good plan.
34 y.o. Dray at the starting 3? I like the overall roster, but if LeBron, TJD, and JK are starting, Dray kinda has to become the 6th man, with Wiggs, Moods, or Podz moving to the starting lineup.
One concern: if LeBron regresses to his career norms as a shooter: the overall shooting/spacing on that team could be pretty terrible.
Suns swept the Twolves in the regular season....
And what does 250 million buy the Suns? No effort.
Avatar for 36Unbothered
"Sometimes our effort isn't there..." - Brad Beal
I watched bits of this game. When the TWolves pushed, the Suns slacked. It was a little surprising to me all the open looks and blown coverages. Beal and Booker both have focus issues that have infected the team is my off the cuff pov.
> When the TWolves pushed, the Suns slacked.
I think that’s what’s concerned a lot of Suns observers all season, as they’ve been musing, “do these guys even like playing together?” You need a high degree of togetherness to want to fight through adversity (viz. ‘22 after losing GP v Memphis, or after going down 1-2 in the Finals; or ‘19 v Houston after losing KD,; or ‘18 after going down 2-3 to Houston and trailing by 17 in an elimination game; or ‘16 WCF down 3-1; or ‘15 after going down 1-2 to Memphis and Cleveland).
Beyond being kinda soft individually, the Suns seem to lack the required cohesiveness to really want to fight for each other.
Yes. I’ve been hearing all season that the Suns are just going to simply flip that mythical playoffs switch and bear down.
Instead they’re stumbling around in the dark in their pajamas, one foot stuck in the toilet, slapping at the wall and just starting to realize that the damn switch is on the far side of the room.
I note with the dispassionate eye of a scientist that this works in the trade machine:
GSW gets KD
PHX gets CP3, Kuminga, Moody, Podziemski
My variation, which obviates the complicated timing gymnastics of re-signing CP3:
GSW gets KD
PHX gets Dray, Wiggs, Kuminga, and maybe a pick
Deets in my reply to Patrick below!
This sterling example of dispassion is noted. A veritable ChatGPT of a post.
I, on the other hand, would have passion about this.
NO NO NO NO I LOVE YOU JONATHAN DON'T LEAVE ME NO NO NOOOOOOOOO
Ok I'll bite. They can't aggregate salaries if they've over the second apron, which they are until the next free agency year starts. To get under the second apron basically means waiting until July 1st and either letting CP3/ Klay walk, or re-signing Klay at a much lower number (which feels like path a). Also CP3's guarantee date is June 28th - this can be moved but requires both sides to agree. I doubt he'd agree if the reason is so you can trade him back to a team that dumped him. You also have Looney's partial guarantee ahead of that date to deal with, though I suspect they will agree to move that back as they did with Livingston a few years back.
So I think realistically any KD trade has to happen after July 1st and therefore not include CP3, instead involving Wiggins and Looney as salary matching, along with JK, Moody and Podz. Phoenix would likely have other offers so demand some picks so my best guess at a realistic trade offer is Wiggins, Looney, JK, Moody, Podz and 25 and 27 picks (perhaps with some limited protection). You can't take any of those young players out because you can't match the salary otherwise. If GP2 opts into his final year you might be able to add him instead of one/ take Looney out but he's pretty strongly hinted he wants to opt out and renegotiate a long-term deal.
I think that's a good deal for Phoenix - they get younger to get closer to Booker's timeline and have JK's possible All Star upside, and have pieces that fit much better alongside Booker/ Beal with Wiggins, Moody providing wing defense, and Podz solid depth.
The real question to me is whether the Warriors would do it? You'd basically be left with 36/37 year-old Steph, 36-year-old KD, 34 and diminished Klay, 34-year-old Dray who is still great when he controls his anger and stays on the floor, and TJD, who you'd expect to play big minutes as the only player under 34 of the starters! You could renegotiate with GP2 as 6th man and bring him back at something like 3 years, $5m a year, but you're lucky if he's good for 40 games a year at this point.
On paper if they manage to enter the playoffs healthy next season or the one after they might have a decent shot as long as no-one craters (and Steph, KD, and Dray still look pretty good). But to get there how do you fill out a roster 7-14?
Great stuff, Patrick! Always love when you cross the pond to say hello and drop wisdom.
My answer to your “how do you fill out the roster” query: you don’t. That’s too much (for me) to give up. We’re currently witnessing how far the mid-30s generation gets you with no talented young legs to carry them. This will not improve a year from now, when Steph and KD are 37 and 36.
For entertainment purposes only, if I do the deal, my package is: Dray, Wiggs, and Kuminga. Salary matches without us having to throw in EVVRYYYONE. We’d actually need (or be able to) take a small salary back, like Little or Roddy, to help replenish the roster. Heck, have Damion Lee pick up his option and throw him in to add shooting and general good vibes.
Dray has the MSU connection with Ishbia, and fits much better with Book/Beal than KD does. Wiggs and JK give them the long athletic wings they badly need alongside Book and Beal, and fit much better with the Book timeline than KD does. Core: Book, Beal, Ted Cruz Jr., Kuminga, Wiggins, Dray, Nurk. That’s a fabulous team, imo, quite possibly a title contender. (Dray + Nurk would be LOL, but no more LOL than Dray + KD, and then can always flip Nurk in another deal).
That’s already a great deal for them, imo, but if a sweetener is needed. we can also help restore their totally bare asset cupboard with a pick.
Warriors keep Podz, Moods, TJD, and Santos for the young legs needed to supplement the stars. Painful to lose the three guys we’re losing, but we also be getting rid of three questionable shooters and replacing them with an elite one, which (in a 6-11 body) instantly solves a lot of our size and spacing issues. And of course the lack of secondary scorer issue is instantly solved.
Re-sign Klay on a cheap 3/$50M type deal. Sign Jalen Smith (MLE) and Kris Dunn (min) for PG depth, shooting, and defense.
Starting five: Steph, Podz, Moody, Durant, TJD.
Bench: Klay, Dunn, Smith, Loon, GP2, Little, DLee, Santos.
Get ‘er dun, Mike!!!
Steph in Cancun
Lebron & KD about to get swept or gentlemen swept
HOW MANY TIMES DO WE HAVE TO TEACH YOU THIS LESSON OLD MEN?!
Steph is 36, which is how old LeBron was when he .... won a championship in 2020.
This year, KD and Steph played about as well as they ever have, more or less.
All three guys are going to win gold in the summer. All three would win a chip if they were on a good enough team.
So.... I don't really know what you're all capsing about.
> This year, KD and Steph played about as well as they ever have, more or less.
Less.
Is this the emphatic next generation is ascendant playoffs? Last year had Butler.
This year the old man teams aren’t looking too good.
Young stars with old role players are beating old stars with young role players.
Wolves beat the Suns 126-109 and are up 3-0 in the series.
Doesn’t look like Beale helped PHX in the playoffs this year.
That's because he's not a very good basketball player. He is the ultimate embodiment of "PPG is the only stat" thinking
#stathead ftw
okogie commits a flagrant 2 on Gobert- has been ejected with 2:54 left in the game - suns down 99-118
NBA Is No Country for Old Men (Cormac McCarthy)
Steph, Klay, Dray, CP3, LeBron, AD, KD, Beal, EJ, Kawhi, PG, Harden, Westbrook, Dame, Khris, Brook, DeRozan, Vucevic, McCollum…
All 31 or older, all gone fishin’, or about to be.
Suns, lakers, clippers finding out the hard way, what the warriors smartly found out by bowing out in the play-in :-)
#lightyears