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author

MY PEOPLE, WE ARE HAVING A POOLE PARTY OVER HERE: https://dubnationhq.com/p/game-thread-warriors-host-nuggets?justPublished=true

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You the real MVP.

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author

POOLE PARTY!!

> @anthonyVslater

Steve Kerr on Jordan Poole in that Klay starting SG vacancy: “For now, he’ll be in that starting spot and he’s playing so well, it’s hard to envision not keeping him there.”

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Oct 7, 2021Liked by punk basketball

Duby,

I know you guys don’t want to throw up articles just for the sake of articles, but based on the game thread being so active with comments Monday, does it make sense to steal a page from the SBnation days and a start a new one before the game specifically for game comments?

I sometimes have trouble with it not updating/uploading and it seems to get worse when there’s a shit ton of comments.

Of note: My Ipad really wanted to correct “shit ton” to “shirt on”.

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Oct 7, 2021Liked by punk basketball

Also, when it locks up and I have reload it, scrolling through your long article to get to the comments is kind of a pain

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author

Ok noted

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Hear Hear!

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author

Damnit. Fiiiiiiine :)

I'll do it when they get heavy comments, but it's tough because I gotta make dinner and stuff.

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LOL You are appreciated.

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That life stuff always gets in the way.

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author

it's a real bitch, tbh

Lmao, just kidding, these are some of my happiest times. Some good points y'all had. We will bring back the GT - I'll just auto schedule them when I write previews

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I can envision not keeping him there... swirling rainbow clouds with an image of Klay projected on them...

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Oct 7, 2021Liked by punk basketball

1st League Pass game for me this year and first time I’ll be using the PS5 to watch the Warriors! Albeit, likely a late start unless the NL wild card game is a runaway. (Go Cards!)

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Is the game on League Pass? It’s not showing up on my app

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NVM, found it

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I hope it’s not a late start! The weekly light-up e-bike parade is tonight.

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Oct 7, 2021Liked by punk basketball

I'm excited about this team.

(That's all I got.)

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Nuff said.

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Oct 7, 2021Liked by punk basketball

My take or maybe I heard this somewhere is that Bradley and Galloway got a lot of run in the first preseason game not because the team is so pumped about them, but because it is unsure and needs more data. As far as I can tell Bradley is past his sell-by date. He's spoken very highly of his own defense lately but I think it has regressed since his peak considerably. Meanwhile, bad time for Gary Payton II to get a hernia. He's my pick. Or Mulder. Mulder isn't astonishingly good but has proven he can play in the Warriors system and that should count for something. Galloway: European team maybe? Sorry if that's rude.

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I was thinking this as well. More minutes for Avery/Galloway to check their suitability. Looking forward to seeing them both tonight. If it was up to last game, would you pay $25M for Avery (with tax included)? I wouldnt. But Im not Joe or Steph. So lets see tonight. As for Mulder, he is looking like a great fit for the 2-way

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$25 million?? I did not know that price. Given how close his skill set is to Gary Payton's, I'd say I'm between hell no and extremely no.

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Ah my bad in the articulation - its the cost of adding anyone to a vet min in the 15th spot (added cost of signing players in the luxury tax). So on paper it may be a vet min or something similar, but in real terms its like 5 times that amount.

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fusho. I knew you meant the combo platter, not his salary alone.

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I am hopeful for the team's shooting as a whole, though. I think it's not unreasonable to expect the team to be in the top 5 for both 3PA and 3P%. For comparison's sake, I looked at last season, when we were 9th in % and 5th in attempts.

While I was there I realized, holy hell, the Jazz's 3-point shooting was more impressive than I realized. They had a league-leading 43.0 attempts/game at a team rate of 38.9% for 4th in the league in % and 1st in total makes. To get there they had a *lot* of high-volume, high-accuracy shooters.

Meanwhile we got 3rd overall largely on the back of a certain guy shooting 42.1% on 12.7 (!!) attempts/game. Yes, that's more than 2 attempts/game more than the next guy in the league, Lillard, at a higher rate than anyone in the top 25 attempts/game.

This season is different, of course! We'll have Klay eventually, we're rid of Oubre and Wanamaker, and we added two sharpshooter free agents in Bjelica and Porter. Yet, even then, it's going to take a big improvement across the board for us to get to the quantity of quality shots Utah got last year. Here, have a chart.

https://mduo13.com/stuff/gsw-uta-shooting.svg

Methodology: I assume Bradley gets the 15th roster spot on the Warriors, and the 2-way contracts are Mulder and Chiozza. I used per-game stats from bbref for each player's '20-21 season, except for the following:

- Klay's numbers come from '18-19, his last full season with the Dubs

- Porter's and Bjelica's numbers are their career averages, rather than their noisy numbers from seasons they spent injured and bouncing between teams

- Moody's numbers come from his college stats at Arkansas. There's an asterisk by his name because the shorter 3-point line among other things make these not exactly comparable.

- Kuminga's numbers are from the G-league Ignite, so they're not exactly NBA numbers but at least the 3-point line is the same.

One thing that's crazy is that Curry's 3-point production is about equivalent to Ingles' and Bogdanović's combined. Another crazy thing is how green Clarkson's light is, that he was shooting 8.8 attempts/game despite shooting only 34%. I think a likely scenario for Jordan Poole's growth this season is similar: hoist a ton of shots and make enough of them that we can't really complain.

Another thing is that outside of the Splash Bros, the Warriors basically haven't had anyone who chucks it like fully half the Jazz rotation. (Not pictured: Oubre last year took as many 3-pointers as Wiggins but made them at the same percentage as Wiseman.) So if the first preseason game was a sign, THAT is something that'll change this season.

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Yeah the Jazz (and Clippers too) were insanely good as a team from three last year.

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Yes, I expect we'll also be shooting and making a ton of 3s. Maybe not as many as the Jazz, but I expect us to be top 5 in attempts and near top 5 in %. That's one of the primary reasons I'm bullish on the team's chances in the regular season.

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Oct 6, 2021Liked by punk basketball

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KlKcef2XC-g

BBALLBREAKDOWN video on non other than Jordan Poole

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I was just coming to share this…really nice stuff!

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Oct 6, 2021Liked by punk basketball

At the Athletic, Hollinger predicts 39-43 for the Warriors in '21-22. It's behind a paywall. Can anyone who has a subscription tell me why he thinks they will be substantially worse than last year? I suppose outrageous stupidity is an acceptable answer ;-P

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I'm not sure how much he's watched because he has obvious starting center Kevon Looney listed as a "likely deep reserve".

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That idiot probably looked at the Porter Jr. , Bjelica and Iguodala signing as non impactful because we gave them each a minimum. People keep sleeping on the depth of this team because we have a lot of under the radar guys. This team will legit be 12 deep this year assuming the rookies are off in the G League and whoever gets the last roster spot will barely play.

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author

> Projection

The last intact version we saw of the Warriors went to the Finals; alas, that team also had Kevin Durant, a healthy Thompson and a more vibrant Iguodala. Since then, they haven’t played a playoff game.

One might think having Thompson back pushes the Warriors toward the top of the West again. Cynics might add that having Wiseman out to start the season can only help. Not so fast. First, Thompson may not even be on the floor until the season is half over. And while my projection on Thompson this year is admittedly a dart throw after two lost seasons, his output had dipped in the two seasons even before he was hurt.

Meanwhile, the Warriors have other factors pushing them back. Having to replace Oubre and Bazemore with minimum guys hurts. Also, the Warriors’ two key players (Curry and Green) are now 33 and 31, respectively. Curry was amazeballs last season, but if he’s merely an All-Star, that’s going to be a minus relative to a year ago — and they needed him to play at peak level just to squeeze out an eighth-place place finish.

Yes, Kuminga and Moody offer promise for the future, but teenage rookies rarely move the needle. Their biggest 2021-22 impact would be as trade chips. Wiseman will begin the year rehabbing a torn meniscus, and even his biggest fans would concede he’s much more of a project than first envisioned.

True believers remain. Vegas has the Warriors with the fourth-best championship odds — which I first thought was a typo and seems absolutely hilarious, but there it is. Yes, Golden State’s depth pieces are better this season, but none of its frontcourt players can score, the shot creation remains limited and two of the three stars who sent this core to five straight Finals are losing their war against Father Time. A healthy Curry playing at an MVP level might get this team to a mid-tier playoff seed; anything short of that, and it’s back to the Play-In Tournament.

Prediction: 39-43, ninth in Western Conference

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Oct 6, 2021Liked by punk basketball

"Having to replace Oubre and Bazemore with minimum guys hurts."

He says, conveniently forgetting that Bazemore was a minimum guy last year.

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This team would be way better off with Oubre or Bazemore than not imo. Right now they are looking at Avery Bradley to fill their POA defense hole.

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We couldn’t really afford him anyway

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Oct 6, 2021Liked by punk basketball

Outrageous stupidity is perfectly sufficient, but this is old hat for Hollinger who predicted that the Dubs would finish 14th in the West last year and clearly doesn't watch any Warriors games whatsoever based on what he writes about the team. One of the few Athletic writers who always makes sure to disappoint.

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The only way that happens is if Steph is injured for a large chunk of the year. If Steph plays 70+ games, there's no way we win 39 games.

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"only"

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He got his spreadsheets mixed up... that's probably the column for "projected team 3P%"

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author

it's a horrible article.

I rage read it earlier. Solely based on hybrid statistics and there's a number of points made where you can tell the author is just wildly unfamiliar with the team

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It was more a LOL than a rage for me. He talked about Looney as devoid of athletic skill now, and I riposted that BBIQ, ability to get position for rebounds, screen effectively and defend all count for something

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Lazy as hell

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I never read Hollinger. Absolute hack.

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Oct 6, 2021Liked by punk basketball, Daniel Hardee

Klay protecting the shores of Albany I see!

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Oct 6, 2021Liked by punk basketball

I think Klay may actually be a Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtle

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Klay is Michelangelo, Westbrook is Leonardo?

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I mean, yeah, he was using a bow, but I'm talking about jois de vivre.

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Westbrook is Shredder, fearsome and unrelenting yet always gets defeated.

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Oct 6, 2021Liked by punk basketball

One part of last game that I'm excited to see if it continues - Draymond 1/2 from 3 and 2/3 if you count one that he shot after a foul. It's only 3 shots but I'm getting my hopes up.

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He shot 31% from three in the last 24 games of last season. Arbitrary cutoff (not my cutoff, stole the stat) but it was obvious that post-COVID effects were holding him back in the first half of the season. I think 30+% from three is a reasonable thing to hope for now that he's healthy. If he gets to 2016 levels, they are the championship favorite, but he's probably had too many injuries since for that to happen again.

More important for their offense is his finishing ability imo.

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I just keep hoping he can develop a good floater. The bad thing is that he needs to be close to elite at it for defenses to change their coverage. And I doubt he can finish over anyone but small guards using athleticism anymore.

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Agreed. If Wiseman emerges as playable that could change things because the defense will need to respect the lob possibility, which should allow Draymond to get closer to the rim before they commit to him.

Then again if Wiseman emerges as playable I'd also love to see the spread floor Curry/Wiseman pick and roll without Draymond. The Warriors are talking about simplifying Wiseman's reads and that would be a good place to start given how much Curry and the spaced floor reduce what the defense can do.

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😆 I'm not getting my hopes up. Post-whistle shots are second only to shots in an empty gym for not being predictive of in-game accuracy.

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And he was shooting like he *should be* taking the shot, not just "they're leaving me wide open, I guess I have to take it". Felt really different to me.

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Yeah his first shot really said that. Pretty covered but still no hesitation

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Oct 6, 2021Liked by punk basketball, Daniel Hardee

Some more recent comments from the inestimable #9

"I stored a lot of things in the (tool belt) that I thought was full," Iguodala said with a laugh. "I thought I've seen everything but being there I saw some things where I was like ‘I’m stealing that, I’m stealing that, I’m stealing that,’ and ‘thank you' on the way out … Those things are going to translate to a lot of success and a lot of wins here, along with what was already put in place."

“I’m going to make sure Bob [Myers] gets executive of the year with vastly underpaying me.”

https://www.nbcsports.com/bayarea/warriors/andre-iguodala-has-perfect-bob-myers-joke-after-adding-tools-heat

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So much love for Andre

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Revolution #9

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FYI this appears to come from the Athletic podcast D^3 cited below, or Steph is really polished at delivering the same message multiple times ;)

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I am aware that virtually no content from this source originates from them. And any small paragraph a player or coach or management makes will turn up as 2 or 3 articles with virtually nothing more than 6 words to base it on. But everything else is behind a paywall and that doesn't work in my world. So...

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Podcasts are free!

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Thanks! I'm an old guy. Didn't know that the Athletic's podcasts were free since everything else they have is behind a paywall. I sometimes listen to podcasts if they are put in front of me but I don't go looking for them. But I read this article first so I shared the link.

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FYI this appears to come from the Athletic podcast D^3 cited below, or Steph is really polished at delivering the same message multiple times ;)

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author

LOOOOVE this!

> “I think just, what Warriors basketball is and how you’ve seen us play for years on in, it’ll be another evolution of that," Curry continued. "And hopefully, the spacing and the shooting that we have will open up a lot more opportunities and options across the board. And then when Klay gets back, it’s just a matter of figuring out what our rotation is, and understanding that he’s going to take us to another level. We’ve almost got like three seasons in one. It’s like the anticipation for Klay coming back; whenever he does come back, that first, maybe, month or six weeks, where you figure out what he looks like and getting his legs underneath him, and then you have the playoff push. We’re kind of breaking it up into those segments, and hopefully we take care of our business.”

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Oct 6, 2021Liked by punk basketball, Daniel Hardee

This might be the first time I've read the word "profligate" in a sports article. hehe

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I was more impressed with "inculcated"

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author

I read too many books, sorry

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As the old commercial says, "People judge you by the words you use..." -- IF they can figure out what they mean!

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But are you participating in the Aaron Rodgers Book Club?

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author

ha! Jokes on him, I mostly read crap. I love fantasy and sci-fi, throw in some zombies and you've got my library covered

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You might enjoy Craig Alanson's SciFi. Very tongue in cheek.

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A man of culture indeed.

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Oh my, it's real

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Oct 6, 2021Liked by punk basketball

lol love the humble brag.

all jokes aside, great article! this newsletter is priceless. love the deep dives.

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author

thanks so much for the kind words!

And thanks to everyone for making this place viable. Short articles for Vox were never a natural fit for me.

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Oct 6, 2021Liked by punk basketball

Great Klay video. I expect he will be playing in China in 2030.

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Oct 6, 2021Liked by punk basketball

When did Let's Go Warriors become Dub Nation HQ? It wasn't clear to me at all what happened with Let's Go Warriors.

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Oct 6, 2021Liked by punk basketball

The grass was cut, and the snakes showed

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Made me think of that Jadakiss verse on that one infamous LOX track

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That works too, but it was inspired more from a Jay Z paraphrase from Blueprint 2.

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another classic

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Oct 6, 2021Liked by punk basketball

Geez, has it been a couple months now? I am losing track. 3D, DH and Apricot would be able to explain better, but LGW focused on videos and we all came over here to continue the nonsense.

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Also PMC is one really unhinged dude.

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Oct 6, 2021Liked by punk basketball

The is the better alternate timeline

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Was there some friction? If so I guess I don't need to know the details. However, if everything is fine then those running things here should help others find this place by putting a notice prominently somewhere on the LGW substack.

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Oct 6, 2021Liked by punk basketball

There was, yes, and LGW has been reluctant to share/direct anything here.

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Oct 6, 2021Liked by punk basketball

Understood. Thanks for the info.

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author

Ha! We were just talking a couple days ago about how long to leave the "was LGW" in our tagline. Glad you found us!

Unfortunately, we are not able to get any redirect up on the LGW site. If anything, he's counting on confusion to steer readers to his site.

But yeah, we removed Rich for a variety of reasons, and then he pulled a fast one and stole the company mailing list, and started a new substack under the LGW name (we changed ours here) and involuntarily signed all of our existing subscribers up to his new one.

You can read more here: https://dubnationhq.com/p/the-dubnationhqcom-transition-is

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Hey Duby, I asked a while ago but did not get a response, do we need to change our payment plan to DNHQ from LGW or will that happen automatically. I just want to make sure my payment goes to the deserving place.

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Oct 6, 2021Liked by punk basketball

That "was LGW" tag helped. I might have had a hard time finding you without it. It's the start of a new season so if there are stragglers like myself that didn't keep in touch during the offseason it might still be helpful.

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author

listening to this now, and it's so good. There's apparently at least one more part to it that will be released later

> 'Hoops Adjacent' Pod With @StephenCurry30

‣ Expectations that lie ahead

‣ Balancing emotions

‣ Golf, MJ and the Ryder Cup

‣ Kobe, Shaq & Iverson advice

@davidaldridgedc

@ThompsonScribe

Listen

Apple: http://apple.co/3jpVA3i

Spotify: http://spoti.fi/2OJXcHe

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Finally got through all of it... very good listen! Steph always has those cookie-cutter corporate answers in postgame interviews and media sessions but outside of those, he's a good interviewee.

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