Preview: Curry back, Warriors ready for some home cooking
Preview: Curry back, Warriors ready for some home cooking
Golden State is back for an extended homestand. Time for Curry, Thompson, and Warriors to get back into old winning habits.
The Golden State Warriors have won two games (but lost three) since the return of Klay Thompson. Of course, the edge was already wearing off the newly sharpened Warriors prior to Thompson’s arrival. After scorching the league with a 18-3 start, Golden State has fallen back to Earth a bit, going 9-4 in December and then 4-5 so far this month; they’ve now lost five of the team’s last seven games.
Between the high impact return of a rusty Klay Thompson, and a rash of injuries that has most noticeably taken Draymond Green out of the lineup through the end of the month, it’s been tough lately.
But then again, it’s January. After putting the NBA on notice for most of the season, I’m not too concerned about the recent slide. A slide that occurred while missing one or two of the team’s best players. So now the Warriors are back home, where they get a seven-game homestand that starts off with some very beatable opponents; starting with tonight’s matchup against the 10-win Detroit Pistons.
On the injury front, it seems like Curry will definitely be back, though Payton is still “questionable. The longer concern is associated with the evolving state of Draymond Green’s injury. It’s turned into something much more than simple calf tightness:
GAME DETAILS
WHO: Golden State Warriors (31-12) vs. Detroit Pistons (10-32)
WHEN: Tuesday January 18, 2022 // 7:00pm PDT
WATCH: NBCSBA
Stay the course? Or flip a trade?
I’m biased. For me, I just don’t see any viable way to flip what the team has in fungible assets right now for a better player — at least, not without incurring some unacceptable costs. I’m a “stay the course” guy. The remaining schedule is supposedly one of the easiest in the league, and Green should be returning right around the time Thompson gets his legs back underneath his game.
But the Warriors have been struggling for about a month and a half now. And for a team with championship asperations, it behooves the front office to explore every avenue.
The idea of “wasting” Curry’s prime has gained a lot of traction over the past couple of seasons. With all the big injuries and hefty salaries though, the Warriors have been limited to marginal edge moves.
So do the Warriors need a new center?
Myles Turner (or even someone like Sabonis) could bolster a Warriors frontcourt that came into the season pretty lean on traditional bigs. Starter, Kevon Looney is listed at 6’9” and the fact that there’s a legitimate question who the second option is without Green available immediately shows the lack of traditional depth (and size).
Green has played 471 minutes this season without Looney, nearly half of his 1,018 minutes total. Bjelica can cover some, but lacks the foot speed and defensive acumen to really hang as a viable minutes-eater. For different reasons, Otto Porter is equally unfit to eat up large swaths of center minutes. Kuminga is an exciting option that’s still in development.
So there’s a gap. And it’s one that James Wiseman won’t even be available to address for another month, at minimum.
But, would you be willing to fill that gap if it cost the team Kuminga and/or Poole? It’s a question of preference/priorities, but also one of need.
According to basketball reference, the Warriors lead the league in defensive rebounding, grabbing about 80% of available opportunities. Opponents are also shooting a league-worst percentage against this defense, at just 49.9 eFG% (for comparison Golden State has the second-best such mark on offense, where the team shoots around 54% collectively).
Via Cleaning the Glass, here’s a summary the Warriors’ defensive outcomes in the half court setting (they’re very good):
Golden State ranks 12th in blocked shots. But as one of my first bosses used to always write on the tops of reports (in large pen) “so what?” To me, it feels like the Warriors need a center, but not so badly that I’d throw away significant assets at the problem. Some would though, and that’s fine too. It’s not a horrible idea if you get a good enough deal. Or maybe you want a deal with the devil and to blow it all up for a truly wild move? Options abound!
Time for some home cooking!
Normally, the end of these preview article is devoted to the opponent, but considering the inertia and opponent strength, I think it’s more pertinent to look at precisely where Golden State’s offense has been struggling.
Starting at the top, Curry’s slump is no small factor. If you're looking for an area for improvement, Curry's jump shots are all out of whack. On his no dribble jumpers, the he is scoring a pedestrian 1.069 points per shot (via Synergy). Science cannot explain how he is only in the 54th percentile for jump shots, but the scientists are pretty sure this transgression against nature won’t last for much longer.
Another opportunity for improvement is Jordan Poole’s play. He looked better than one of those fancy desserts that has gold leaf on it for some reason earlier in the season. But his play quickly morphed into that off-brand box of stale holiday bonbons you find at the office mid-February.
Particularly, Poole’s been bad in transition and isolation situations. In transition, he’s scored just 115 points off 112 possessions — a rate that Synergy calls “average” but actually lands him in the 36th percentile for players at his position. But perhaps more damaging because of how the team wants to use him, Poole’s isolation effectiveness has fallen off a cliff. Here’s the Synergy screen grab showing all isolation outcomes. These aren’t a high usage play, but getting stifled this badly on drives out of iso has been a major blow to Poole’s campaign for wider recognition this season.
These are just a few of the areas that are going wrong right now, but with the team heading home for an extended stay, it’s a good list of what to work on. “Work on” being a strange phrasing of course, since both Poole and Curry’s struggles are so far out of their career norms that I feel safe expecting a return to form without much adjustment beyond the passage of time.
Conclusion
Three easy games at home this week. Even without Draymond Green, Golden State should be able to figure out a way to win these.
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And it's beautiful.
Have I missed it or is there a brilliant new DNHQ logo? Asking for a friend.