Preview: Warriors need the Kuminga dimension
Golden State needs to pick up another win ahead of grueling finishing stretch
The Golden State Warriors are still fighting for playoff positioning, and will need every win they can get. Over the final couple of weeks, this team will continue to fall short of perfection, and that’s ok. These are the waning days of an impressive dynasty. Footnote time, if no more legends can be set; and that’s fine. But the chase is still on. Messy, but alive.
Tonight’s opponent, the San Antonio Spurs, know just how fragile these things can be after losing Victor Wembanyama for the season due to an unusual injury. At the time, they were hovering just below .500 and hoped that the trade for De’Aaron Fox could be just the boost needed to push them into Wemby’s first postseason experience. Instead, his sophomore season was cut short; followed shortly thereafter by a season-ending injury for Fox that has left the Spurs in a tanking tailspin as the season winds to a close.
But Golden State still has to take care of business this afternoon. Only eight games left after this one, and it’s about to get a whole lot tougher.
GAME DETAILS
WHO: Golden State Warriors (42-31) at San Antonio Spurs (31-41)
WHEN: Sunday, March 30th, 2025: 4pm PDT
WATCH: NBCSBA
Embrace the chaos with Kuminga
Kuminga is becoming a key piece for the Warriors as they fight for playoff positioning. Despite an awkward fit in the offense, his unique skills bring a dynamic the team desperately needs.
Right now, there’s an odd balance with Jonathan Kuminga and the Warriors but everyone is happy to stick with it. For a team that is so heavily indexed on the idea of movement without the ball, a player like Kuminga is a bit of an outlier because of how dangerous he is one-on-one. Of course there will be some bumps when the time comes to integrate him back into the offense - especially after such a long gap. He doesn’t necessarily convert the baskets, but like Butler, he is much more likely to draw fouls. According to Cleaning the Glass, Kuminga trails only Butler when is comes to the percentage of his shots that result in opponent fouls:
After months on the shelf - a time which coincided with significant roster upheaval - there’s something almost asynchronous about Kuminga’s play style. He’s not a perimeter player, he’s not especially pass-happy, nor does he fit especially well into the Warriors’ pace and space scheme… at least on first glance.
Squint and look a little closer though, and the fit becomes more clear. Remember that these team rosters are most effective when they’re balanced. As fun as it is to question who would win between a team of Shaqs versus a team of Steph Currys, that’s not a realistic way to assemble a basketball team. Kuminga - like Draymond Green or Jimmy Butler - contribute to the equilibrium especially because of how different he is. You can’t have a puzzle where all the pieces are the same shape.
Back for a couple of weeks now, Kuminga has been playing around 23 minutes per game, shooting 43.7% from the field, and a meager three of nineteen from deep (15.8%). There’s not a lot to like so far when looking at the averages since return outside of the base stats: 3 rebounds, 2.8 assists; he’s had one block since returning, 7 blocks (which averages out to just under one per game). But these games aren’t won on paper.
Kuminga brings a dynamic that is sorely needed: he’s extremely hard to guard.
“The dive to the rim when JK sets that ball screen for Steph puts a lot of ball pressure on the defense,” Kerr said. “That was really key tonight. The two of them connected for three or four of those, and that was helpful.”
All five of Kuminga’s made shots were within 10 feet. Both of his misses were 3-pointers. He also went 6 of 8 from the free-throw line, making his first six before missing his last two after banging knees with Yves Missi in the fourth quarter.
These Warriors aren’t going to always win, much less win pretty. So it’s a nice change of pace to have Kuminga. The shots weren’t falling for the Warriors against the Pelicans - excluding Curry, the Warriors were 8 of 39 (20.5%) from deep. This is where the magic has been falling short lately. The league has begun to copy and even improve on the Warriors’ model, as the original continues to fade with time.
This is what Butler was brought in to help fix. It’s why the Warriors didn’t lock Kuminga up when they could have extended his contract like they did with Moses Moody. Kuminga doesn’t just have a high ceiling, it’s one that helps fix some of the most glaring design flaws in Golden State’s current model. That’s worth a lot. But only if Kuminga can deliver on the promised impact.
The Warriors are rooting for it.
Prediction
This is silly season, where the games somehow count for more, even though it’s mathematically impossible. The Warriors know this. A veteran team with a few uncomfortable recent losses, and a tough schedule stretch coming up with critical playoff implications?
Warriors will win, and Kuminga’s business case for more playing time is going to get more and more compelling.
Post-game thread up.
One of the great unknowables of JK is what would have happened if he got all he could eat on a crap team. In one theory, he would have improved by trying out many concepts and moves in real games without pressure. In another theory, he would have learned little of the skills and attitude relevant for winning ball.
No one committed to either theory can ever be convinced. But I’ve found it interesting to loosely follow Jalen Green’s development. He and JK started at similar development levels and played for Ignite together.
JG got all he could eat with bad HOU teams and now plays on a winning one. And he has the same EPM as JK (+0.2) and a reputation for being an erratic player. Not unlike JK’s rep. https://www.si.com/nba/rockets/news/jalen-green-extremely-important-houston-rockets
No conclusions, but an example of “all you can eat” not necessarily accelerating the growth process.