Preview: The Battle lines have been drawn

Warriors and Rockets see the same vulnerabilities

The Golden State Warriors opened this playoff series strong, and it wasn’t just about collecting the win. The Warriors were up by as many as 23 points before the Rockets got within three; eventually resulting in a comfortable 95-85 victory to steal home court advantage in this first round series.

Now comes the hard part. Both teams have had a few days to review the tape and cook up readjustments, so this next meeting will be another wall-to-wall challenge in regards to both strategy and execution.

Both teams are likely thinking that they could play better. Golden State saw some reliable bench contributions dry up. A Warriors defensive masterclass and/or poor shooting led to a measly 85 points for a Rockets team that while not exactly superpowered on offense were generally alright on the season (more on this below).

Was it the lucky bounces, or did the Warriors really find some sort of secret sauce against the young Rockets?

---

GAME DETAILS

WHO: Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets

Warriors lead series 1-0

WHEN: Wednesday, April 23rd; 6:30pm PDT

WATCH: TNT / NBCSBA

---

The Battle lines have been drawn. Let’s fight!

In Game one, the Warriors limited the Rockets to just 20.7% shooting from beyond the arc and forced 17 turnovers (14 steals), directly leading to 23 points… They also got absolutely smoked on the glass, where the Rockets held an impressive 52-36 advantage, including a whopping 22 offensive rebounds, to the Warriors’ six.

All of this is to say, this is asynchronous warfare. Or, in less fancy words: both sides have stuff they can take advantage of. Minimizing the opponent’s strengths while trying to lean into your own is the judo that has defined high level sports for hundreds of years. But for this series, watchers are treated to a rare sight where both sides are willing to mostly concede.

The previous version of this series was a shootout between the Splash Bros and The Beard. It was a tactical battle rather than strategic. Both teams had the same strategy: threes and dunks (or whatever open high percentage shot that could be found). This time around, it’s different. The cagey veteran Warriors are a focused, grinding force. Well studied in their opponents preferred offensive sets, and with a wealth of high quality options to defray their designs, Golden State has embodied that old man game when it comes to high quality defense. It’s all the little details. A strength of base that is both physical and mental.

Poise is a combination of a lot of things that the Warriors have in spades.

Steve Kerr was pretty blatant about all of this in his postgame availability. There’s no secrets here. The Rockets can hammer the Warriors on the glass, and if they can do that, plus one or two other things, that will be the ballgame.

“In this series, you can see they know where their advantage lies, and it's playing [Steven] Adams a lot,” “Sometimes playing him with [Alperen] Sengun. Having everybody crash. So, it felt like 1997 out there to me. Completely different NBA game than we're used to. We’ve got to be ready for that. This is what this series is going to be.”

The unspoken part here is that Kerr knows the Warriors win because of Curry - if all of that is true. Curry was transcendent in the first game. 5-of-9 from deep, his 31 points punctuated by iconic shots. Dribbling and fading out of bounds on the wing. Crazy quick cuts with sneaky layups that find the basket no matter how high up he has to send them to avoid the hyper aware defense.

This is what the second game will be about. Some minor adjustments, sure, but each team has seen something they want to lean into. Houston’s center, Alperen Şengün scored 26 points (on 11-of-18 shooting) but after that their next best top scorer was Jalen Green, who eked out a grand total of seven points (3-of-15 shooting, 0 of 4 from deep). Previous nemesis, Fred VanVleet, was 4 of 19. The Warriors are willing to concede some modicum of success to Şengün, as long as nobody else kills them.

The Warriors don’t need miracles. They just need to avoid any huge disasters.

“We've got to recognize that we don't need to take chances in this series,” Kerr said. “We need to be clean with our execution and transition. We don't need to dribble through traffic. We don't need to throw a lob passes to try to get a dunk. We've got to be rock solid. And if we're smart and tough, we're going to be in good shape.

Smart and tough? This doesn’t feel like much of a stretch for Golden State.

Prediction

Ugh. There’s a lot that can go wrong. The Rockets have continued to get away with a ton of off-ball contact (e.g., fouls) on Curry, and they had outside-the-norm bad shooting in that first game.

But it feels like the Warriors are a little too poised, a little too good. I’m not so sure that they don’t come out and steal another game on the road. The goal coming in was probably to split these road openers, but it’s time to get greedy. Warriors go up 2-0, with a shocking appearance of Jonathan Kuminga to lift the moribund bench unit.

The Warriors struck first, but the series didn’t tilt - it just tightened. With adjustments looming and momentum up for grabs, this game won’t just be a battle of skill. It’ll be a measure of composure.