Preview: Sweat the details? Warriors need to clean up act against Hawks
Melton out, Anderson questionable, but they have Stephen Curry
There’s a lot that can go wrong for a basketball team, but the Golden State Warriors have found a new way to lose games: missing free throws. Of course, that’s not the only thing that went wrong in their last game, but it’s a point of focus in tonight’s game against a Warriors team that has won four straight at home.
The Atlanta Hawks aren’t one of the best teams in the NBA, but they’re dangerous. Clint Capela and Trae Young will work to set up a predictable offense and swarming defense that has started to put it together after a bumpy start to the season.
Looking deeper, it will be interesting to see how profoundly the absence of Melton will affect the Warriors rotation. After settling fairly firmly into the starting rotation, he’s going to be out for an indeterminate amount of time - which is obviously concerning on a number of levels for both Melton and the team.
GAME DETAILS
WHO: Golden State Warriors (10-3) vs. Atlanta Hawks (7-8)
WHEN: Wednesday, November 20th, 2024; 7pm PST
WATCH: NBCSBA
Free throws, margin of error, and a dream that can’t be deferred too much
The Warriors were down by as many as 15 points to the Los Angeles Clippers before they fought back on the strength of a 23-11 run in the 3rd quarter that brought back memories. And then the fourth quarter hit us with more memories. Dumb turnovers. Missed free throws. It wasn’t a total meltdown, but the sort of lingering crumble that could easily deflate the Warriors’ balloon of hope.
Stephen Curry, as usual, was an absolute miracle worker; 26 points, 7rebounds and 6 assists. But other than Andrew Wiggins (22 points) and Jonathan Kuminga (12 points off the bench) nobody else hit double digit scoring. It was a stark contrast to some of the season’s earlier showings, where a deep Golden State team was running over opponents. Whatever it is, regression to the mean, or just the impact of teams watching what the Warriors are doing and making adjustments in their gameplans, it feels like some of the wiggle room has diminished.
On the surface, it’s easy to get hung up on the obvious causes of that last loss. Too many turnovers and some abysmal free throw shooting. Actually… let’s go ahead and unpack both of those before moving on. The team of professional basketball players that we all love to root for shot a measly 9 of 19 from the line - in a game they barely lost by three points.
The Warriors are dead last in free-throw percentage, shooting under 70% as a team from the line over the course of the season. The fact that Curry is hidden in that statistic is mind-boggling. This is compounded by a Warriors’ offensive philosophy that eschews that R. Kelly ethos: there is indeed plenty wrong with bump and grind. Unfortunately, this puts Golden State at a disadvantage in one of the offensive four factors. In fact, looking up this stat, I was struck by how pervasive this disadvantage is. Look at how consistently mediocre the Warriors are in every freethrow-related metric.
This has always been one of the tradeoffs that the Warriors were willing to make under Steve Kerr. But one of the many tonal shifts this season is that Golden State can’t afford to entertain these minor basketball transgressions. Not anymore.
Historically, the same pattern that occurred against the Clippers can be seen throughout Curry’s career. He was not fouled while shooting on any of his 15 shooting attempts, so the team’s most accurate performer didn’t even get a chance to show off from the charity stripe.
I wonder, sometimes. How hard must it be for someone like Kerr to not absolutely lose his mind. You’ll note in that image above that Kerr’s most beloved principle - ball movement - doesn’t really seem to affect winning. None of the four factors have anything to do with assists. Turnovers and free throws though? Those things will kill ya.
Head coach Steve Kerr echoed the sentiment that the Dubs need to work on their free throws — “Our guys have to get in the gym and find their rhythm, find their confidence from the line for sure” — but both he and Curry placed more of the blame for Monday’s loss on the 19 turnovers Golden State gave up. Kerr even said that “as a coach” his focus is more on those giveaways than those misses at the line…
Where has the early season margin gone?
First, credit should be given to the Clippers, who have now served the Warriors two of their three losses on the season. Not to freak anyone out, but they are still playing without Kawhi Leonard. Secondly though, the Warriors secondary options are being taken away.
One of my favorite humans is a Sacramento Kings fan (forgive him), so I text him every now and then to talk basketball. I remember earlier in the season he was mocking Dub Nation by saying that Buddy Hield was going to break our hearts. Hield took just six shots in his 23 minutes against the Clippers and it feels like the Warriors may need to re-emphasize Hield a bit more within their offensive flow in order to counteract defensive attention. It’s a fine line to toe.
Hield’s aggression level is somewhere below Klay Thompson’s “FIRE!” mentality, and his ability to score so easily without seeming to be such a ball stopper has been one of the happiest early discoveries this season. Much like Curry, it looks like teams will be willing to risk other exposure
Some of these struggles were fomented by the arrival of the injury bug, which has finally bit Golden State. After stepping firmly into a starting position, it looks like De’Anthony Melton is going to be out for a while - perhaps even a long while.
“He’s been seeking other opinions. We’ve really been evaluating everything just trying to get him the best advice he can get. And we’re obviously very concerned… We’re really taking our time and making sure De’Anthony gets all of the advice he needs.”
That sucks.
Mostly, hearts go out to Melton - who only played 38 games last season. This was part of the reason Golden State managed to snag him off the open market - a gamble that certainly looked worth the risk just a week ago. Now, this is a situation that bears monitoring. If Melton really is out for a while, it will escalate the pressure, something the Warriors are all too familiar with.
For now, Golden State is fine.
But with an aging but still elite Curry on board, fine may not cut it these days.
Post game thread up.
Whew. Curry and Looney both playing!!