Preview: Rockets expected to continue "physical" approach
Butler questionable, no structural damage
Jimmy Butler is okay. That’s the biggest sigh of relief from the Golden State Warriors’ perspective, but still leaves considerable uncertainty. Currently listed as Questionable, Butler has undergone an MRI and been formally diagnosed with a “pelvis and deep gluteal contusion.” Gary Payton is also showing up as Questionable on the early injury report due to a shoulder strain.
This is going to be a tough game. Whether or not Butler can go, he will not be at his physical best. But don’t underestimate the gumption of these Warriors. I’d expect that the physicality that has been the core strategy of the Houston Rockets will fail. Maybe the referees get new glasses, or maybe the Warriors figure out a way to free up Curry from the clawing hands of that Houston “defense.” One way or another, this is the crucible. The moment that squeezes everything down into the heat and pressure that only comes when it’s four out of seven games to advance.
Jimmy may or may not be out, but there’s plenty of adjustments for the Warriors to make regardless. Back home in San Francisco, the Warriors are relatively content with stealing the road split to open the series - essentially negating home court advantage… if the Warriors can wrest the momentum back with a couple of home wins.
GAME DETAILS
WHO: Golden State Warriors vs. Houston Rockets
WHEN: Saturday, April 26th, 2025; 5:30pm PDT
WATCH: ABC
Pray for the bear…
There was one of those funny double-take moments while waiting for an update on Butler’s injury. Apparently, when asked, Butler’s agent replied via text to a journalist with a relatively cryptic phrase. Pray for the bear.
What?
Apparently, this is a reference to something Kobe Bryant said after tearing his Achilles. Actually, this is a pretty riveting watch, if you have the time. But the gist of it is, “If you see me in a fight with a bear, pray for the bear.”
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I love sayings like this. When I lived in Texas as a non-successful musician, my day job was at this place called Jason’s Deli in Austin. There was this General Manager (who I eventually became good friends with)1 that would always drop sayings like that. You’d come in to a full house and he’d raise his eyebrows at you with something like “Clock in quick, Buddy. We’re busier than a one-legged man in an ass-kickin’ contest.” Or we’d watch some awkward teenager struggle through a basic task (like cutting the top off the enormous mustard container to scrape it out) and he’d give you a side eye and softly go “that kid makes me more nervous than a long-tailed cat in a room full of rocking chairs.”
Pray for the bear.
This is a fight, but Playoff Jimmy has earned that moniker by showing up in the post-season, frequently defying the odds to help his team win games. Butler was everywhere in game one: 25 points, 7 rebounds, 6 assists, and 5 steals. That said, maybe the big bear fight can be put off for a couple more days?
Butler is the most viable pressure outlet, and a compellingly physical counterpunch alongside Curry’s more scalpel-like approach to taking a team apart. The Warriors absolutely need Butler for this run to work, but sometimes prioritizing the longer lens view makes sense - and that may well mean holding Butler out tonight. Bear fight or not, that was a tough, tough fall.
After tonight, the next game isn’t until Monday. I’m no medical doctor, but if the actual professionals do decide to give Butler another couple of days off, this next contest would still seem to be winnable - with some changes.
Adjustments every game
We can safely assume Butler will want to play, but I think it’s equally fair to expect some lineup shuffling in game three. Jalen Green went off for 38 points in game two, Alperen Şengün pulled down 16 rebounds - so the Warriors aren’t just looking internally and trying to figure out how many minutes to give to Jonathan Kuminga. But let’s start there anyways.
After getting a couple of notable DNP - Coach’s Decision in the Play-in Tournament and then game one, Kuminga was called on shortly after Butler went down in the first quarter. In his 26 minutes, Kuminga was fine, but it was evident why Kerr didn’t see him as some sort of under-discovered solution against Houston’s defense. He chipped in 11 points (on 12 shots), 3 rebounds, 2 assists and a block. Helpful, for sure, but not enough of an answer. Not in isolation.
Kuminga has been an interesting player for Golden State. Showing flashes of promise, but never really winning the trust of Kerr’s coaching staff, the injury and concurrent trade for Butler has set the relationship into a new, deeper state of the unknown. The main problem is that Butler has proven to simply be a better version of the things that Kuminga does best. Kuminga has turned into a broccoli burger. Sleeves on a vest. Some other cute Texan saying about redundancies.
I hope we see more of Kuminga in this game. He’s such an interesting wrinkle for this Warriors roster, and provides a raw athleticism that’s always welcome. But if he’s going to consume so many shot attempts, the Warriors simply can’t survive at that same level of scoring efficiency.
Quintin Post, Moses Moody and Brandin Podziemski are the other young X Factors that need to step up tonight. Post and Moody tied for second-leading scorer in game 2, but the Warriors will need more than 12 points each - they need a player explosion. Maybe multiple.
Flipping the camera around, the Rockets are proving to present the exact problems that were expected coming into this series: the rebounding edge is real, and so is the extremely physical defense.
Şengün is officially a problem.2 Game two can’t happen again. 17 points with 16 rebounds and 7 assists highlights the scale of mismatch here. This guy is killing the Warriors across multiple aspects, and there’s not really a strong counterpunch from Golden State… yet.
We saw Post ramp up his shooting, with a solid four of eight from deep, but 12 points and 2 rebounds isn’t enough. The Warriors need more from somewhere. It’s time for some of that classic Strength in Numbers magic.
Prediction
Boy. My nails are going to be bloody from chewing on them, but I think the Warriors dig deep and find a way to win. Looking for some unexpected contributors today. Green, Looney, maybe some Podz. Someone has to force the Rockets to care about something other than shutting Curry down at all costs. Butler plays, but under a minutes restriction.
Warriors win by more than 10.
Cool guy. Randy. Maybe he was from College Station or something. Mountain bikes, live music and brewing beer. That dude had it figured out.
I think if I paste the first instance of the player name with accent marks from BBall reference, Substack detects it for the rest of the article. Neat. That’s the sort of AI I can get behind.
Post-game celebration thread up.
I JUST WANTED TO TELL YOU ALL THAT I LOVE YOU