Preview: Nuggets, Bucks will test revamped Warriors

Back-to-backs open the week against a pair of the NBA's elite

The Golden State Warriors are on a roll since acquiring Jimmy Butler, but that’s not the whole story. Pulling back the camera a bit, the Warriors are in the midst of one of the league’s most impressive dynasty runs and are hoping to extend the legacy. This is about a whole lot more than the Butler trade and the run-up to the 2025 playoffs.

For the Warriors to succeed, they’ll need to be able to deliver success when it matters most. This week opens with a couple of powerhouse games; Starting tonight, the Warriors have a back-to-back showdown against first the Denver Nuggets (currently 3rd in the top-heavy Western Conference) and then Tuesday against the Milwaukee Bucks (#4 in the East).

On the injury front, no changes for Golden State, though it does sound like Brandin Podziemski is just about ready to return from his back issue. Not tonight, but perhaps tomorrow.

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GAME DETAILS

WHO: Golden State Warriors (39-28) vs. Denver Nuggets (43-25)

WHEN: Monday, March 17th, 2025; 7pm PDT

WATCH: ESPN

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Sniffing around the edges - giving credit where it’s due

There’s something magic happening with the Warriors right now. Whether associated with the Butler trade honeymoon period, or something else entirely, the team is on a run. 9-1 over their last 10 games, the Warriors are hoping to catch the teams above them in the standings - and it is starting to feel almost inevitable¹ rather than plausible.

Of course, Butler is indeed the catalyst. While internal development and some rotation changes can help explain what’s different, the biggest change - by far - remains the addition of Jimmy Butler. As detailed by ESPN, this phenomenon isn’t unique to his time with the Warriors; the Bulls went 11-4 in Butler’s first games, the Timberwolves were 10-5, the Sixers went 11-4, and most recently, the Heat were 12-3. It’s no secret why Butler has such a positive impact on teams. He’s not just a dynamic player, he’s dynamic and unselfish, his only priority is to play winning basketball.

All that said, his immediate impact warrants a mention:

Before Butler's arrival, Golden State struggled when its stars weren't on the floor, getting outscored by 90 points when Stephen Curry sat and by 98 when Draymond Green was off the court. Since Butler joined, those numbers have flipped -- the Warriors are now +33 without Curry and +39 without Green…

But there have been other fantastic players that have come through and failed to fix the non-Curry minutes, so let’s dig a little deeper into some of the specifics of what has fueled the recent resurgence. What else is going on here?

Moses Moody is the first player that comes to mind for me. In one of the more remarkable moves of the off-season, the Warriors extended Moody, but not his fellow 2021 draft alumnus, Jonathan Kuminga - despite Kuminga being taken with the higher pick. The three-year, $39 million extension was signed prior to this season’s training camp and broadly seen as a vote of confidence, as well as an opportunity to lock in a rotation-caliber player for a reasonable price.

Notably, the Warriors chose the safer option here, not necessarily the most flashy. Moody averaged just 5.9 points per game (in around 14 minutes) over the first three years of his career, on 46% shooting overall, and 36% on threes. Even before the Butler trade, Moody was beginning to emerge as a player that the Warriors could rely on. Not just “don’t screw it up,” Moody has been turning into one of Golden State’s best options.

Moody has since gone on to start for 18 games this season, leading the team to an impressive 18-1 record in those starts. Per Anthony Slater, Moody has scored in double digits in 23 of his last 27 games, turning the faith the team put into him into trust. Even DNHQ’s own resident genius, Eric Apricot called out Moody’s value; look at the absolutely brilliant step through layup that Moody uses to bail the Warriors’ offense out - notably, this was the play that got the lead for Golden State, allowing Draymond Green to call nigh night via his off-hand layup.

The hugest² bucket of the game (timestamped):

It’s not just that he has averaged 12.7 points, 3.3 rebounds and 1.6 assists, Moody is often one of the primary point-of-attack defenders, and frequently finds himself standing at the fulcrum of some big game moments. The stretch of 14 wins in 16 games overall - including the one loss Butler missed - wouldn’t happen if Moody wasn’t firing. Kerr and the Warriors have been watching.

In parallel, Quintin Post has emerged as someone that fits in well with what the Warriors want to do. Around the core three of Curry, Butler, and Green, Moody and Post have found fertile basketball soil. Their fecundity is made possible by Curry drawing a ton of attention, but augmented by the smart play of Green and Butler - plus the floor stretching that only comes with a center that shoots like Post does.

Golden State has long coveted a stretch big. Andrew Bogut and Mo Speights transformed the value that the Warriors get out of the center position (one that has been a historical weakness), but neither was flinging up shots from deep. Other players have slotted in, but been less than stellar fits in other aspects of basketball. Post was sent down to the G League affiliate to specifically work on his pick-and-roll defense, and has now been making a case that he could well be a starting caliber player that Golden State can rely on.

The Warriors are a two-way team, and they’ve earned the second-best defensive rating since the arrival of Butler in no small part because of some of these other little moves paying off.

Now the Warriors have Kuminga back in the fold, Podz should be returning in the near future, and the team’s final runway to the playoffs is set. It’s the NBA. Some of these games will look bad, or even and poorly; but Golden State has a proof of concept that they are more than comfortable leaning into. A team that truly embodies the trite Strength in Numbers slogan. I’m here for it.

This team’s trajectory has been fundamentally reset by the arrival of Butler, but the reason that one additional player can make such a huge impact is due to the fact that there are so many little details around the edges that are going right. Kuminga missed 31 games, but he’s coming back to a scenario that is pretty close to ideal. Curry and Green continue to be the old guard leaders, but Butler has proven to be a phenomenal glue guy. Glue guys are worthless without backing talent to coalesce, so as we watch these final few weeks of the season unfold, let’s remember to honor the strength in numbers that allows Golden State’s role players to shine so brightly.

Prediction

I’m contractually obligated to predict a win, so let’s start there: Dubs win. But this is also going to be a fantastic litmus test of this new Warriors juggernaut. If this undersized but super quick and talented Golden State roster is going to go far, they’ll need to have answers for Jokic and the Nuggets (or Giannis and the Bucks).

You don’t always beat size with size in basketball, and no team has personified asymmetric warfare as well as Curry and the Warriors. The NBA is already watching, these next two games could go a long way towards putting the top teams on notice. The Warriors are back.

1. Other top teams that the Warriors are chasing haven’t fared as well recently. Lakers have lost four straight games, the Grizzlies and Nuggets are both mired in .500 ball, going 5-5 over their last 10 games.

2. Yes, “hugest” qualifies as a word, but it’s close: https://english.stackexchange.com/questions/322493/hugest-grammatically-correct