Preview: It's hard to win without your best player, but not impossible

Golden State Warriors will need more of an all-around effort

The Golden State Warriors came close, but fell just short of taking the series lead after a late flurry from the Minnesota Timberwolves. Instead, it’s going to be a white-knuckled game four at home, with a ton of pressure on the Warriors to secure at least one win at home in the hopes of extending the series long enough for Stephen Curry to come back and help.

There was a lot to like. Jonathan Kuminga and Jimmy Butler both showed up and did their best to lift the team to victory. But imagine what this series would feel like should the Timberwolves lose Anthony Edwards. It’s not just the drop off from that player to the next guy in the depth chart, there’s a series of cascade impacts that make almost everything easier for your opponent.

Draymond Green was squeezed into nothingness, or worse. Some of the squad’s most reliable reserves all season have gone whisper silent. Like waking up in the morning after a snowstorm blankets the world into that special snow-induced lack of sound overnight, Golden State is blinking their eyes, as fans lean in with eager ears hoping for sounds of life.

(at least) One more home game to keep the dream alive!

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GAME DETAILS

WHO: Golden State Warriors vs. Minnesota Timberwolves

Timberwolves lead series, 2-1

WHEN: Monday, May 12th, 2025; 7pm PDT

WATCH: ESPN

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The bad news first

Let’s get the unpleasantries out of the way first: Draymond Green was awful. Maybe spiraling further down into his own head, maybe not, but unacceptably bad in any case. Green was arguably the player of the game in the series opener, despite some big shots from Buddy Hield. 18 points (third most on the team), 8 rebounds, and 6 assists, to go along with a ton of defensive mastery.

That player was nowhere to be found in game three, and the Warriors won’t be able to survive if there isn’t a return to form. Sure, there was foul trouble, and some extremely questionable whistles for at least two of the last three - but nonetheless, that stat line is brutal. It would be eye-popping even under normal circumstances, but with the season on the line, and Curry out? Brutal.

In around 29 minutes of action, Green scored 2 points (1-of-4 shooting), 4 assists, 2 steals… and 5 turnovers, and 6 personal fouls.

We can gloss over the discussions around whether or not Green’s reputation is deserved or not, whether or not those foul calls were all fair - because the only thing that matters going into tonight’s game is that he simply has to be better. The Warriors need him. His defense on Edwards, and the room his absence allowed, were the deciding factor in what looked like a very winnable game… a game that was partly winnable precisely because of Green’s excellent defense.

Another element has been the role players. We discussed in the last preview that Kerr was going to have to radically alter his play style in order to lean into the new focal point of Butler, Hield and Kuminga, and they did in the last game. The Warriors played a hard-nosed, rim-attack offense.

That said, it would still be nice if there were a few threes picked up around the edges. The dearth of outside weapons doesn’t have to be as bad as it was in the previous game, even without Curry. The Warriors’ complete lack of made threes was staggering. Per the NBA:

…the fewest 3-point attempts by any team this season and the first time Golden State had zero by halftime since Jan. 6, 2020, 476 games ago.

The Warriors don’t have the luxury of being picky. Any one guy like Podz, Hield, or Post; or some combination of everyone. One way or another though, Golden State cannot afford for such a poor shooting performance again.

This is a make-or-break game. Though not technically an elimination game, Curry’s uncertain return is only going to matter if the Warriors can extend the series long enough. They need a win tonight, badly.

“If we don’t win, we damn sure don’t have to worry about getting Steph back this year,” Jimmy Butler said. “We gotta put our big boy pants on and go out there and compete at a high level and get this one on Monday.”

As someone rightly pointed out in the last game thread: it’s all hands on deck. Many hands make light work!

The Good Stuff

It’s important to recognize that Golden State found some things that were working - and notably, those were areas where they were most needed. Butler had to be playoff Jimmy, and that’s what he gave, despite still being slowed by injury. Butler played all but five minutes of the previous game, scoring 33 points, with 7 rebounds and 7 assists. It was enough. Not enough to win the game, but a gutsy, deeply competitive showing from the newest Warrior.

Joining him, was Kuminga, who chipped in 30 efficient points (11-of-18 from the floor overall), along with 6 rebounds, 3 assists, and 2 blocks. After getting pushed out of the rotation earlier, this was Kuminga’s first real chance at minutes, and he showed up. Whether he comes off the bench or not, it’s clear that he belongs on this team, and will serve a huge role in helping push Golden State through, should they advance.

“It was fantastic to see,” Kerr said. “You can see how necessary he is in this matchup, especially without Steph. We’re having a tough time getting free, and he’s obviously capable of giving us some points, getting to the rim.”

The Warriors need something dynamic, so it’s nice to see them leaning into a Kuminga and Butler tandem that wasn’t working so well earlier. To be fair, it wasn’t all that many repetitions, and Kuminga was working his way back from an extended injury and clearly needed to adjust his way into this new ecosystem.

Maybe the absence of Curry helps here. It’s a less blended situation. They can tailor the plays more to these other personnel, spend more time talking to each other about how they’re going to fill in the Curryless void together.

Together, Butler and Kuminga accounted for 63 of Golden State’s 97 total points (around 65%), and that feels about right. If they can continue to find the edges, it’s not all that hard to imagine one of the other shooters getting hot - especially after a drastically cold-shooting game three.

It’s close. And that’s all we can ask. There was a winnable game that slipped away in large part due to extremely strong performances from the Timberwolves best two players. It’s hard to win without your best player, and the Warriors know that without Steph Curry, a lot of things are going to have to go right tonight.

It’s not impossible. But there’s also no way in hell that this isn’t going to be hard.

Prediction

Kuminga starts, maybe Moody and Post off the bench. Kevon Looney, as he often does, continues to make a case for being part of the answer. And no matter what, the Warriors win. Because they have to have this one.

The margin for error is now gone. The Timberwolves have tasted blood, and the Warriors can’t afford another slow start, another stretch of stagnant offense, or another game where Draymond’s frustration overshadows his impact.

This is the inflection point in the series — the moment that either hardens the Warriors’ resolve or begins the slow fade into offseason speculation.

Championship teams don’t just respond to adversity; they weaponize it.