Preview: Grind don't stop, Warriors host Pacers

8 games in 13 days; this is the one home game

The good news is that Steph Curry might make a return tonight. The bad news is that the Golden State Warriors (so far) have not managed to conjure that star-less magic in his absence. This is the in between time, and the hope is that the Nuggets game was not a glimpse into Golden State’s eventual Stephless future - more like a scary ghost story.

But it’s the NBA. No team is going to win every game, and there are still a few key elements that are yet to fall into place. Tonight, the Warriors have a shot at a redemption win. Just a few days ago, these same Indiana Pacers picked up their first win of the season over the Warriors; now Indiana is in the Golden State - where the team has been much better.

No official word at time of writing about Curry. But last we heard, things were trending in the right direction. Expect this one to be close to a game time decision, but as always, check the comments for updates throughout the day.

Similarly, no word yet on Will(iam) Richard, but it’s not unreasonable to guess that he’ll be called up to San Francisco to be available this evening. Note that after tonight’s game, the Warriors head out on a six game road trip, starting against the defending champion, OKC Thunder, and including not one, but two, visits to San Antonio and the Wemby show.

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GAME DETAILS

WHO: Golden State Warriors (5-5) vs. Indiana Pacers (10-7)…+/-1 (B2B, Denver)

WHEN: Sunday, November 9th, 2025; 5:30pm PST

WATCH: NBCSBA

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I’m not mad, just disappointed

The Warriors have lost four of their last five games, marked with Friday’s crescendo of a 25-point loss. It’s a strikingly discordant way to balance out the season’s first five games - which oddly, was a 4-1 stretch. Through the first ten games of the season, the Warriors have certainly looked competitive at a high level at times, but have also continued to display enough glitches to cause some furrowed eyebrows. It remains to be seen how much the return of Seth Curry and De’Anthony Melton will move the needle.

It’s still early in the season, and missing (Steph) Curry for 20% of your total games is always going to be a problem, but let’s go ahead and poke at the wounds a little bit to examine the Warriors’ biggest problems so far.

If this season were a song, it’d be stuck between verses - still building, still trying to find the hook that makes it all click. The notes are familiar, but the tempo feels off. That’s the strange beauty of the early season: you can hear what they’re trying to sound like, even when it’s not quite there yet.

Looking at the NBA leaderboards, Golden State’s offense is rank 18, and their defense is 16th. Net rating (for those who may prioritize such things) is also in the same range: 18th. Not good. But not a disaster, either. This checks out with the .500 record as well - an average team. Going a little deeper in, the four factors tell us a bit more about the team’s strengths and weaknesses.

yellow on top is value, ranking shown on bottom (via bball ref)

As expected, the Warriors turnover rate is bad (24th), but this has always been a subtly shaded issue. There’s a basketball philosophy that coach Steve Kerr is known for, and all of the motion it uses just seems to generate a lot of turnovers. There have been times when the chaos has been controlled, but this season doesn’t seem to be one of them. The breakdowns are across the spectrum, seemingly to just as likely come from a boneheaded “pass it into the back of your guy’s knee” as from a forced turnover.

I’m not sure how much I trust the new AI-connected internet anymore¹ but this appears to be the worst rate of team turnovers in at least a decade.

TPG = turnovers per game

It’s going to be a challenge for the Warriors to integrate all of their new players on the fly this season - which is very much what has happened, and will continue to happen. Recall that Horford was late to join the Warriors this offseason. As previously mentioned, Seth Curry was here for the beginning, but gone until further notice while the Warriors navigate salary cap impacts. And given the contracts and ambiguous free agency period, it’s not like most of these new players were playing pickup together over the off-season. These are a bunch of new players, playing big minutes, in a complicated and evolving system.

It’s not just the turnovers, but this high turnover rate is a symptom of a deeper ailment.

“I mean, hell, every game up to this point is supposed to be one to set the tone”

-Jimmy Butler

Al Horford’s load management is another ongoing connected issue. While he hasn’t exactly found his footing entirely, there’s always a couple of plays where having Horford on the court helps. He’s just one of those guys that is good enough to demand a little extra attention, which opens up opportunities for others.

Maybe the loss to the Nuggets isn’t the fairest point of measurement. But what about that last game against the Pacers? Where does the judgement apply here? It’s a tough question that is still trying to figure out their identity beyond the core stars.

In the last game, the youth brigade fell apart. Moses Moody was 1 of 9. Brandin Podziemski and Jonathan Kuminga both made 3 of their 10 shot attempts. There’s no shame in getting run over by Jokic and the Nuggets, but there’s something gnawing at the support pillars here. Which was the anomaly: Kuminga’s 3 of 10 against the Nuggets, or his impressive 24-point and nine rebound outing (in just 25 minutes) against the Kings?

The reality obviously includes both. A wild ride of performance and competition that makes all of these statistical reviews silly. We won’t know what the pattern is until it fully resolves, in the meantime, it’s all staring at balls of yarn and hoping for a good outcome.

And this is the most frustrating part about watching the current mix of veterans, rising hopefuls, and journeymen - this team is all over the place. It feels just as viable that this is a .500 team that might barely scrape into the playoffs - despite early season dreams.

So where does the pivot come from?

Draymond Green, ever the leader, took some of the blame after the most recent loss.

“I’ve failed,” Green said. “If our defense looks as s----y as it does, I’ve failed. You can send as many messages as you want. Until we do it, I’m failing them.

…No. 1, it’s taking the challenge – a personal challenge. “You’ve got to take the personal challenge to guard your man. Then if you get beat, there’s help. But I think right now we’re just relying on the help to beat everyone. When you don’t give effort, then help can’t get there.

“It starts individually. Everybody must take the challenge individually of guarding their man, and then you build out from there.”

There are some bright spots, as highlighted in that same article.

Quintin Post showed up against the Nuggets, taking advantage of his opportunity and pitching in 14 points off the bench (on 6 shots). Draymond Green is also on a run from deep, converting 44.7% from three (17 of 38) this season.

There’s a good team in there, they’ve just got to iron out some details. The return of Curry would certainly help solve a lot. But regardless, the Warriors can see just as clearly as the rest of us what’s going wrong or right. Now it’s time to see what they can do to fix it.

Maybe that’s the test this year - not if they can be perfect, but if they can stay connected through the noise. Dynasties don’t collapse all at once; they fade, regroup, and sneak back through the cracks. The Warriors still have that look sometimes - the one that says they remember exactly who they are, even if the rest of the league has forgotten.

Prediction

Warriors show up for their home crowd. Curry comes back, and so does Richard.

1. My late apologies to Mr. William Richard; with thanks to Sleepy for correcting the record.