Preview: Golden State just heat checked the trade market

One week until trade deadline, Warriors scream "I'm fine" with pair of wins

The Golden State Warriors are back above the .500 mark after a nice mini win streak. Sure, it was just two games, but for a team that was ogling the trade market, it is a stark reminder of the opportunity cost that will come with any big ticket trade. In almost any scenario, Golden State would need to include both Kevon Looney and Andrew Wiggins in order for the salaries to work - not so coincidentally, the same folks that served such a key role in the team’s most recent win over the NBA-leading OKC Thunder.

Now it’s old friend Kevin Durant and the Phoenix Suns that will serve as the most recent measuring stick for a franchise that still dares to dream that megastar Stephen Curry is enough - as long as he’s surrounded by the right pieces.

On the injury front, the Warriors should look mostly the same - still waiting on the return of Draymond Green, and the eventual addition of Jonathan Kuminga sometime after the trade deadline. One new wrinkle is that Kevon Looney picked up a face fracture and will be playing in a mask - in classic Looney style, he will indeed be available tonight.

---

GAME DETAILS

WHO: Golden State Warriors (24-23) vs Phoenix Suns (24-22)

WHEN: Friday, January 31st, 2025; 7pm PST

WATCH: ESPN

---

To trade or not trade, that ‘tis the question

One win doesn’t change everything, but the Warriors’ defeat of the Thunder has seemingly reopened the lid on the jar of Golden State’s confidence - a lid that has been stuck tight for months. Looking at the standings, it’s only a few games that separate the Warriors from the playoffs, and the recent pair of wins says that anything is possible when the machine is fully engaged.

It took some change. Trayce Jackson-Davis and Lindy Waters - both key rotation players for much of the season - have been bumped to the back of the line as Quintin Post and Brandin Podziemski emerge as better options. Podz in particular has seemingly energized the listless team that looked so lost just a few weeks ago. 20 points (on 12 shots), seven rebounds, six assists and one steal in the win over the Thunder; 17 points (6-10 FG, 3-6 from deep), three rebounds, five assists and two steals in the loss to the Los Angeles Lakers.

With Post and Podz- and Schroder finally beginning to shine - the Warriors are going to have a much harder time pulling the trigger on any potential trade. It would seem that the metric to evaluate is whether or not any deal would significantly improve the team’s chances this season. Beating the Thunder - while Curry finished with an inefficient 22 points on 22 shots - signals that maybe the Warriors aren’t so far away from figuring this all out as they’ve looked.

All of which complicates an already difficult looming decision ahead of next week’s trade deadline. The most recent candidates (if we can trust the rumors at all) seem to be whittled down to a few key options: Jimmy Butler, Nikola Vucevic, or Zach LaVine. On paper, all of these players should help the team win; but once you peel back that basic premise and look at the details,

Butler is probably the best overall player of the bunch. An elite defender that has shown he can play at the highest levels of competition, Butler has pushed his way out of the good graces of a disappointing Miami Heat team to the point where the asking price must be as low as it’s ever been. Still, at 35, and on a painfully expensive contract, it’s not clear how (or even if) Butler fits into the team’s current multi-year strategy. On the other hand, maybe that doesn’t matter and you just land the best player you can.

Vucevic is the most available, but also seems to fix the fewest issues on the roster.

LaVine is the newest addition to the Warriors’ trade target list. A legitimate offensive threat inside and out, this is probably as close as the Warriors can get to replacing what Klay Thompson used to do for this team.

But at what cost?

Butler makes $48 million this season and holds a player option for a whopping $52 million next season. The locker room impact is a factor as well. Butler has loudly conflicted with portions of most of the teams he has been on, a jarring dichotomy compared to the joyous basketball embodied by Curry and embraced by the franchise. LaVine isn’t much cheaper - $43mil this season, $46mil next year, and then a $49 mil player option. There’s some recency bias to be concerned with here as well. LaVine has looked strong since his return, but between that salary, the injuries and lack of defensive awareness, there are enough concerns here to warrant significant caution.

In all of these deals, Golden State is almost certainly going to have to include Wiggins, Looney and/or some of the developing players in order to make the salaries match. Given the fact that these are exactly the same players that have helped fuel the team’s recent resurgence, these unlikely trade scenarios are looking closer to dead on arrival now:

…the last few victories have all but crossed out the chances of a strict salary dumping of either Kevon Looney or Gary Payton II’s expiring contract to duck under the luxury tax. Looney and GP2 are too important in the locker room, and I don’t think the Warriors want to start tearing apart the fabric of their culture just to save some dollars.

“I think this group, we know they’re capable,” Kerr said. “What we saw early in the year was not a mirage. You don’t just fall into that.”

It’s going to be an interesting next seven days.

Prediction

This should be a fun one. As much as anyone, Durant’s arrival and departure from the franchise have fueled the dramatic rise and slide of Golden State’s dynasty. With one ring before his arrival, and one after (to Durant’s none, and none) Curry and the Warriors have nothing left to prove - other than the ability to get a win when they need one.

Music Friday

Well, DNHQ, some bad news for me on the personal front. I’ve apparently managed to mess my neck up pretty bad. Good news is that the next show I’m going to is chill. For today’s music, I bring you something other than punk rock.