Preview: As it has always been, Curry must save the season

Warriors lose Payton indefinitely, but he'll be re-evaluated in a week. Golden State doesn't have that much time.

“Good, good.” That was coach Steve Kerr’s answer when asked how Stephen Curry looked during the pre-game practice ahead of the Golden State Warriors’ previous game against the Miami Heat. Curry, of course, did not end up playing in what became the team’s second consecutive loss. A bad, bad 86-112 thumping. Two-for-two (in the wrong direction) for a team that still thought they could hold on to the coveted 6th seed, despite missing their biggest star; and instead looked non-competitive.

Now, Curry really should be back. Per reporting from Anthony Slater and others, Curry participated in the team’s scrimmage yesterday, and then finished out with an individual workout. Though officially listed as Questionable, it is widely expected that Curry will return to action tonight against the New Orleans Pelicans.

Not a moment too soon.

Dub Nation got an unfortunate surprise yesterday when the team announced that Gary Payton had sustained a thumb injury resulting in a partial ligament tear in his left thumb. Details are sparse, but will be filled in over the day as news and interviews trickle in. For now, Golden State says that he will be out for an indefinite amount of time, but will re-evaluate him in one week - at which point the Warriors will have played four of their remaining ten regular season games. It’s about to be a wild ride to the finish line.

Palate cleanse.

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GAME DETAILS

WHO: Golden State (41-31) at New Orleans Pelicans (20-53)

WHEN: Friday, March 28th, 2025; 5pm PDT

WATCH: NBCSBA

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How deep do the cracks go? Pretty deep, without Curry

Life is impermanent. Like avocados withering on the counter, or the black beans suddenly transforming into a gateway to olfactory hell, it’s difficult to hang on to anything at its peak. A few weeks ago, the Warriors were on what looked like an ascendent path, but in just a short amount of time everything’s changed.

It shouldn’t be lost on anyone watching, but for maximum clarity, let’s acknowledge how tightly correlated the recent struggles are with Curry. Remember that even prior to the injury, Curry was banged up, and playing some of his worst basketball of the season. The team thought about resting him, watched him put up a stinker, and then did rest him - only for Curry to get hurt upon return. Golden State has now lost three of their last five games, losing their grip on that 6th seed in the process.

There are just 10 games left prior to the regular season closing date of April 13th. Two weeks and change to lift themselves back up out of the dreaded NBA play-in tournament.

This situation is sad, but not entirely unpredictable given how thin the margins of error have been for this team all season. Briefly, the addition of Jimmy Butler changed the trajectory; the team surged from the 9th seed up to the 6th - and then stayed there until Curry went down.

Since coming to Golden State, Butler has played 19 games, with only two negative plus/minus totals. He’s averaging 17.3 points, 6.5 assists, 6.1 rebounds and 1.3 steals. He has attempted 151 free throws and made 84.8 percent of them. His frequent trips to the line, and conversions once there, have filtered through the roster. The Warriors were last in the league free-throw percentage before Butler and second since he arrived.

Turnovers are down, and efficiency is up. The offense that posted a 111.8 rating (18th in the NBA) before Butler is at 118.2 (ninth) with him. Curry’s efficiency, which was trending downward, has soared.

Golden State needs Curry. A healthy Curry. And it’s not a surprise that the machine is falling short of acceptable without him - after all, this entire team concept was designed to work around Curry’s gravity. Now that that veneer has been stripped away, it’s exposed how close to the surface the Warriors’ shortcomings are.

Payton has been playing big minutes (about 20 per game recently) and the team is now going to have to quickly adjust to his absence on the fly. These next two games, on the road in New Orleans, then on Sunday against the San Antonio Spurs is going to be critical. These are the two games that the Warriors should win, given the strength of their remaining schedule, these are both close to must win.

Jonathan Kuminga hasn’t looked stellar since returning, but his outing against the Heat is intriguing. On paper, it’s not much. 15 points in around 25 minutes of playing time, with two each of rebounds, steals, and assists. But it wasn’t just a silly little quip, or weird coaching strategy when Kerr responded to a question about Payton’s injury by pointing out that it was an opportunity for Kuminga.

With Butler and Green on the court, and no Curry, the Warriors offensive flow simply isn’t there. More germane to Kuminga’s performance, the fact that he’s putting up even mildly interesting output in these circumstances should be encouraging when it comes to long term viability of this squad. A squad that will need Kuminga and Curry both on the court and playing well.

Another young player that will be crucial in the final stretch of the regular season, and into the post-season is Moses Moody. He’s looked fantastic all year (well, mostly), and his recent resurgence that coincided with the Butler trade has been one of the most heartening developments since the transaction went through. But the regression to the mean has drawn the young wing back to Earth over the past five games, where he’s shot just 5-of-29 (17.2%) from 3-point range and further exacerbates the Warriors’ spacing issues.

The answers are in there. Even without Payton, this is a roster that was winning recently - and doing so in convincing fashion. Also, it’s important to keep perspective. A slightly lower seed may end up working in the Warriors’ favor. These past few games may have given Curry the time to get his legs back; or opened the eyes to a few of the players and coaching staff to some new opportunities (or at least ideas to try out) once Curry returns to the fold.

One thing’s for sure. It’s going to be a wild couple of weeks, and this weekend is going to have a significant impact on how the final standings shake out. 10 games. One win at a time.

Prediction

Curry will return, most of GP2’s minutes will go to Kuminga, and the Warriors will win this.

Music Friday

Whew. It’s been a tough week. Going to be a long Friday but will be followed by a fun weekend.

Do me a favor? If you’ve got an account, would you please click through and vote for one of my favorite local bands to play a big show? It could be a huge break for them, and I think the world at large needs more high quality skate punk in their lives. Click through to IG here, and vote for Stay Out. I’ll buy you a beer or something.

Embrace life!

What a joy to have old friends come back through town.