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Defense still trash

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Three more days until games matter!!!! Opening night, baby!!

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Let’s spank some sun bums!

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Oct 21, 2023·edited Oct 21, 2023

My scorecard had it: Wembanyama 1, Wiggins 0. That match yours?

Wiggins kept trying moves that work as a small forward in this league: a shimmy, a crossover, a jab step and spin, or space out to the three point line. Each of these resulted in a fat block in his face. If they face each other again, Wiggins is going to have to do a lot more of ... geez I don't even know. Maybe: Pump faking, passing to get it back, ball movement, or floaters like Kuminga's. I think Kuminga's little attack and the floater over Wemby worked because Kuminga had started to body into Wembanyama or indicate that he was willing to, and Wemby backed off of that a bit because JK's physicality is more imposing. He doesn't want Kuminga's shoulders in his chest all that much.

When Wemby guarded Wiggins he looked like a sadistic older brother toying with him. When Wiggins guarded Wemby he looked like a helpless younger brother reaching way toward the sky helplessly. Wiggins is more skilled; but he's only ever played Earthlings.

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Wiggs is also much stronger than Wemby, and got him at least once — when he drove right into his chest and rode him all the way under the rim, then laid it in easily.

Guys are gonna need to figure out they need to use brute sumo force against him, cos as you note, normal finesse moves against him are hopeless.

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Oct 21, 2023·edited Oct 21, 2023

IMHO, Dray, Kuminga, and maybe even Garuba (if he ever resurfaces) are probably going to be better matchups for World-Wide-Wembanyama.

They can body up on him, and his high center of gravity should work against him then. Plus they are quick enough to bump him a bit when he tries to drive by them (someone would need to rotate, I imagine).

I think you just forget about the jumper. Try to get a hand somewhere in his face is about all you can do. If you keep him on the perimeter, you've done your job.

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I think you're right. I also think that if he becomes a knockdown shooter, we're all doomed.

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Honestly, I felt Wiggs did better than I expected. He got smashed on both ends, but it doesn’t seem like he has the body type to guard someone like Wembanyama. Someone like Dray who’s stronger and more physical with a long wingspan might do a better job. Having said that, I also remember one play (1st quarter) where he stopped Wemby in the post and later on drove right into him for the layup (3rd quarter?) which was nice to see.

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Feel like Wemby is gonna get the KD treatment in the playoffs - constantly bump him off his spots and take advantage of his skinny frame/playoff whistle

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I'm not sure we can assume the Spurs are making the playoffs.

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I meant eventually :P

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My take on it was that Wiggins sure as hell wasn't going to sacrifice his body for a preseason game. Let's see how it looks when the games actually count, I think people gotta keep in mind that preseason is preseason.

But I agree that Draymond will guard Wembanyama. Especially since the Spurs are probably going to play Wembanyama next to a center so it's the natural matchup.

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Oct 21, 2023·edited Oct 21, 2023

Wiggins bodied him once… it worked. JK bodied him once, could have spun for a dunk, but went for the fade instead… still worked. I do think you’re onto something about guys not getting physical in preseason.

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I missed the part when Wiggins guarded Wiggins. Sounds nuts!

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Just have to wait until we play OKC

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And now the long wait before we- what’s that you say? Game on Tuesday? Hurrah!

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Also, can JTA join the broadcast team? Great to hear his voice again and definitely an addition to Fitz and Kelanna.

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I'll take a JTA solo broadcast over both of them.

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As much as I like JTA, you need s good play by play person. As much as people might not like Bob, he’s an excellent play by play guy.

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If only Bob would remember that himself and stop trying to get the color commentator job, too.

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stats don't show it but I think last night may have been JK's best game of the preseason. Constant defense, some contested rebounds and a few very nice assists. One of his turnovers was a great pass to McGruder. Limited playing time but he seemed aware, engaged, and impactful when on the floor.

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I didn't see the game, but in the highlights it looked like he had a catch and shoot corner 3 as well which isn't something I recall him doing very often.

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I've felt that some of his other performances have been pretty overrated so far this preseason and not that translatable to the regular season but yeah, he was good last night.

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Thought McGruder looked useful, FO thought not.

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He might be back, but I'd guess they will sign Gay in two weeks

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If bad blood is the reason for releasing a player, CP3 woulda been gone weeks ago

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That was years ago.

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TJD with 6 pts/3 rbds/2 stl/2 blk/1 ast along with good defense in one quarter of play. I really wish he had the opportunity to dive into his post up bag.

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Any of you stat magicians able to tell me how often the Warriors win when Steph and Klay go 2-14 from 3?

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I ran those numbers through my proprietary sophisticated algorithm and it just laughed at me.

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I don’t usually worry too much about future deals, but I’ll say now I won’t complain for a moment if Klay walks because some other team offers him $$ beyond what the Dubs can reach. I adore Klay for so many reasons but his declining skill set/age, combined with seemingly worsening decision making, are going to to be steadily increasing problems.

Prediction: he stays a Warrior for 3/$84 million.

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I wonder if his last really sweet deal while he was rehabbing will play in his taking a team friendly discount.

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Way, way too much. Dray's contract ($25 mil a yr) is the ceiling.

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I could be way off, but my guess if the offer on that the table is significantly lower than that. Like, 3/$60M range. IIRC, he intimated that he’d take a Dray or Wiggs type offer ($25-27M AAV) so if that were on the table, my assumption is he would have already signed it.

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Oct 21, 2023·edited Oct 21, 2023Author

My guess? His agent told him to zip it up after that one.

Draymond took basically the same exact contract as his previous (4/$100m). Wiggins took an ~8% pay cut (considering full length and value of the contracts).

For Klay to take an average of $29m/yr, that amounts to a ~24% pay cut. So in the context of previous contract value, not to mention lifetime value, taking "the same kind of deal as Dray and Wigs" just isn't even close. That's definitely how his reps should be looking at it, anyway. And the 8% Wiggins cut nets out at about $35m/yr.

I think this contract is gonna be way bigger than the Dray/Wigs rate. I predict 4/$130 as the negotiated middle ground.

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Hi Ivan!!!!

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Hey buddy, let's catch a game this winter! Any other NYC-based readers are welcome to join too!

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I am a big Klay supporter, but I'm not sure he is providing even 60% of the value of four year ago Klay. The talk about him guarding the 4 suggests how much his defense has dropped off. 4/130 is what Poole got for being a good shooting limited D guy, but they may have overpaid the market, and, that factored in JP growing into his prime, while Klay in 4 years will be ... not an all-star

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Oct 21, 2023Liked by Ivan

“The same kind of deal as Dray and Wigs” could mean “a similar discount” too

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Oct 21, 2023·edited Oct 21, 2023

It's not what his agent wants, it's what the market will bear. I just can't see Klay getting an offer in that range.

He's clearly lost a step on D, and the shooting is, at a minimum, pretty streaky. He's had two serious leg injuries, and he's on the back 9 of his career (probably his last big contract). If he shoots 40% again for the season, then maybe.

Also, the 2nd apron is real ... especially if Moody continues his very good play, I don't see the Dubs overpaying for Klay. They need to get under the 2nd apron.

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I don't think the market has much bearing on this negotiation, like it or not. This is the second most beloved Warrior in the last 25 years. They probably already have artist renditions of his statue and know exactly where it'll be build outside of Chase. They do NOT want this to get messy. Klay will cut them a deal and come back on a discount – but again, look at those numbers. Maybe a 12% discount, maybe 15%. But 24%? After Draymond took no cut at all (uh not counting inflation)? Maybe you're right but I just don't see it.

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I don't see Lacob having a problem with messy.

He certainly doesn't want it that way, but if it's between eating a contract that makes them uncompetitive (over the 2nd apron), and going with a cheaper, and perhaps better, option (Moody), I think they'll move on.

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Besides the year immediately after the injuries, Klay has never shot less than 40% from 3. Pretty confident he will do so again this season.

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But does 3-point alone justify a huge payday?

Klay’s 2-pointing shooting at efficiency (TS%) were among the worst on the team, and have been even worse this preseason. Couple that with declining defense and it’s correct to question his value.

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I don't think it's correct to take much away from Klay's preseason shooting, personally.

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Not gonna happen but I would love to see Moody starting over Klay in our lineup to add some youth while retaining the spot up shooting also means more shots for Curry/Wiggs to start. Off the bench CP will find Klay, JK, Saric open and Klay could take all the shots he want there.

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He needs better PR. Let’s start calling him Moses Money and get the hype train rolling for him.

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JTA dubbed him thus on last night's broadcast, "Moses Money Moody". I'm into it. PS: JTA's more telegenic than I expected!

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Would love to see him get consistent min's on the floor. Dude is just solid but needs to be out there long enough to get into rhythm.

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I'm just hoping to see Moody truly in the rotation this season. He deserves it. No longer should your CoJos, Jeromes and McGruders ( before he was waived) come off the bench before Mo. When the games start counting, they should lean on him more at the 2. Like please don't sub in CoJo for CP3, when Steph is already on the floor.

I'm still rocking with Klay as my starting 2, but I too would like to see the unit with him, CP, JK and Saric on Tuesday. Would also like to see Steph, Wiggs, Moody and Dray. It'll be interesting to see what 5th piece work best with these lineups. Hope we get to see it early on.

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Like for another hypothetical preseason game? Or for the whole season?

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I'm not sure if anyone agrees with my take, but Kerr has not figured out anything as of yet. The team should be regarded as a work in progress even though we have an awarded core of starters. Time waits for no man and Kerr has proven that his vulnerabilities have not been addressed. His starter are too small and too slow. They've started just about every game with a deficit forcing the comeback style of yesteryear which will not play the same way as it did in our heyday. Players age, lose some abilities, and suffer a lot of physical wear and tear. Yes, we have Steph Curry, but he is the only player we can point to that has not suffered this which is rare. We have talent but other teams do too, plus size and speed. SA effortlessly put us on the ropes early, hitting us where it hurts. Size and defense, sloppiness, and fouls, plague us as they have in the past. We don't really play a tight game. My sense is that we are going to stumble into the first 15 games, losing a fair amount. Mainly because of Kerr's lack of innovation and his reliance on the same old, same old, with even older players and having a short leash on our younger talent come game time. There are going to be disappointments coming but can he adapt to a modern NBA game, win on the road, allow new blood access to the rotations? We'll see.

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Oct 21, 2023·edited Oct 21, 2023

Kerr will definitely be tweaking things, but I think your conclusion is a little negative.

He's already revamped the style of the second unit to match Kuminga's talents, IMHO (Saric up high, giving him the green light to crash the boards, complementary PG play, rather than a ball dominant one).

Kerr will adapt.

I agree with you that this might the year that the core takes a bit of a step back, but it kind of depends on Klay. Steph looks ready to go. Even if he drops off a little, he's still going to be at an all-NBA level.

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Yup… going into last year, Kerr had to bet on emphasizing Poole or JK (or Wise)… I’d have chosen Poole too. It didn’t pan out the way I’d have liked, but it was a sensible decision. Going into this year, JK is the guy, and Moody can fit in.

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That's clearly their plan with how they built the roster, but come playoff time it'll be Moody contributing more on the floor.

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If only Kerr had last years best starting unit in the league…

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Certainly I don't agree with your take. I think they come out of the first 15 games looking pretty dang good.

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I'm sure many think like you. Will your ideas change even if they don't come out smelling like roses? They were roundly criticized last season for their road losses and not going deep enough in the playoffs. The Warriors are just good enough to tease us into hopefulness. But, we'll certainly see how this plays out.

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If the Warriors play like crap for the first 15 games … you don’t think Crusty will change his thinking that they’ll play well for the first 15 games? 🤔

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Read it again.

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What I remember is more than a few people around here before the 2022 season having the same sentiment as you are expressing now, and how all of that played out. Will your ideas change even if they come out looking sharp?

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Yes. But so far, that is not the case.

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Huh? They’re 4-1 in the preseason and have looked about as excellent without Dray as one could possibly imagine.

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Oct 21, 2023·edited Oct 21, 2023

I don't think Kerr is going to make some big strategic change, but I wouldn't expect that either. He is looking to make tweaks to problem areas, but not overhaul the whole system. Whether that is a mistake or not, who knows. The players he is afforded are an aging bunch, so he also needs to play to those strengths. He can't magically will a youthful, athletic team into existance.

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True enough, but as g8tgod said below, he hasn't shown a penchant to change the minds of his core mafia. They've won in the past, why shouldn't they win again? This has logic on both sides of the equation.

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Mafia?

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No, but he can give longer run to his younger guys, which gives them a chance to grow and keeps his vets fresh. To do this, he'd have to get the older guys to buy in -- and I'm not sure he's shown he's up for that.

Don't get me wrong: I greatly appreciate Kerr and will defer to his judgment. But he can't blame fans for second guessing what seems like an obvious problem.

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Oct 21, 2023·edited Oct 21, 2023

100% agree. Kerr pushed the game to its modern state a decade ago. Building on others, to be sure, but super weaponized it.

But now things are changing, including his personnel. I have not seen new schemes from him. I like that he told CP to sometimes just be himself, but I don't know how many more times we have to have one of our pet split cuts get blown up by a team that's totally ready for it before he puts something new together.

One of the areas I'm most interested in is the pendulum swing on size and speed. Kerr shocked the world with his small ball but in my view that will no longer beat larger yet skilled teams. The league has swung back. What are we going to do about it? As a simple example, will it make more sense to play CP or Moody in a lot of situations?

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Which skilled, speedy big man do you think the Warriors could have gotten on a vet min or with the 19th pick?

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YOu're limiting it to the 19th pick or vet min, but a team that is determined to get bigger would have considered a lot of options before that. I'm not religiously opposed to Chris Paul, but that's 20 million that could have gotten a skilled big man. This is not my Big Plan, it's a random example. I gotta go work out, see ya.

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I was thinking about who that we already have, we play, and how. Is there room for more Moody and less CP? Is the room for more Saric or Kuminga than Draymond? When, how? ANd when they're on the floor, what sets are they running? How are they defending? I'm not an NBA coach, I don't have a plan here. I'm just saying that doing the exact same thing as the league evolves sees to be missing the evolution.

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Nobody better ask me what I would do instead, I never said I was an NBA coach.

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What would you do instead?!

Just kidding -- but I do think people give Kerr a hard time. Basically he helped find a way for a cast that historically are not the makeup of NBA champions to win multiple championships (at least 2, the 2 with KD you could say he had a more traditional path to victory). Now IF he fails to pull lightning out of a bottle for a 3rd time, people say he's washed. Almost all NBA champions fit a mold where you need a freak of nature to win. Kerr broke that mold twice -- maybe he will again, maybe won't. But if he doesn't, it doesn't necessarily mean he is on the wrong path, it could just mean that the magic ran out and we are back to the reality of needing the Freak. Every team wants that player though, and only a couple can have them.

Also it's a bit humourous to see attacks on Kerr based on one loss in a 4-1 preseason, when a guy like Mike Brown (who I get the impression many Kerr-doubters adore) goes 1-4, but I'm sure that was just his plan.

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I get that by freak you mean huge with hops but if we're just talking outliers Steph is as freakish as they come. Obviously Kerr wouldn't have won without that.

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I'm not down on Kerr based on the preseason. I thought last season he didn't show much adaptability. I'm on record being frustrated about his underuse of Kuminga in the playoffs, but he also just kept running the same game the whole year including against the Lakers. Jsut for five minutes against the bigger Lakers try Looney, Draymond, Kuminga, Wiggins and Steph. TRY going a bit bigger.

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...or maybe we miss Dray.

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Certainly he will help.

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Klay needs to sign a toaster asap.

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Klay will return to his pre 2019 form as soon as he gets rid of that damn arm band look.

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Early times, but it kinda seems like Mike D is GM-ing circles around late-career Bob Myers, between the Poole/CP3 trade (which cleared minutes and touches for Jon and Moses, among other benefits), switching out PBJ and Rollins for TJD and Podz, getting Saric on a minimum (anyone remember JaMychal Green?), and (seemingly) refusing to offer Klay a big pricy extension.

Very curious now to see who ends up in roster spot #14. Darius Bazley, anyone?

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Also great on Myers and the org for seeing the potential allowing Myers to step away knowing the team is in good hands.

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Can't speak to Bazley, but I agree that Dunleavy has been proactive and strategic. It's still the beginning of the season but his moves have been looking very promising. And while I still have misgivings about keeping the Puncher while trading the Punchee, it's easy to see that the team spirit is much better than last year.

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I just know that Dunleavy would have traded down and taken Haliburton lol

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Probably would have taken Franz over JK too. Although certainly less of a mistake.

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Perhaps that is why Myers stepped down, he just didn't have it. He was subpar for years, but as you said, 'early times' for judgement on Dunleavy. I think he picked well in the draft and made the CP3 trade against a lot of pressure. But his penchant for small guys filling the ranks scares the shite out of me. He and Kerr may have some blinders on.

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Oct 21, 2023Liked by Eric Apricot

Two things stuck out to my eye this game:

1. There was a play early in the second quarter where CP3 made a finger roll, and then made a bunch of gestures to JK. It’s because JK screened out the weak side defender. Really good to see this impact and growth from the guy.

2. WTAF was with CP3 having two TOs just trying to get the ball over half court to start the second half…Point God my butt.

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