I just rewatched the second half, and noticed something I didn't see live ... after one of his dunks, TJD stared down the Bucks bench.
He and Dray are going to get along just fine. :)
edit: one more point ... I wonder if the refs were letting stuff go last night (they mostly were) because Silver was there. He had that statement at the all-star break about letting defenders defend.
Every time I see the Warriors complaining that they didn’t get a call, I think no dude as long as the overall whistle count is low you’re going to win!
So I hope they are informed enough to be complaining in a way that says you better not call that on the other end either.
The NBA giving the Clippers a weekend back-to-back, both early afternoon games, while losing an hour for daylight savings is pretty ridiculous. The last year of the scheduling nonsense for them, though.
That's only the start. By the end of next Friday, they will have finished a stretch of five games in seven days in New Orleans. It is the second time in three seasons that Clippers will finish a 5-in-7 in the Big Easy. And it’s not the final 5-in-7 for Clippers, either.
Somebody really should do a deeper dive on all the NBA team schedules with regard to rest and travel (or maybe they have and it's nothing interesting)... with ~165 days in the regular season and 82 games to play (or possibly 83 now with IST?), it's basically an average of 1 game every 2 days.
I'm sure some teams have it slightly worse* but overall, it's probably as fair as it can be. The real issue is 82 games in 165 days. Owners don't want fewer games, and I doubt the players want a longer season.
* eg. LAC sharing an arena with LAL, SAS with their rodeo, West coast teams' longer flights
Getting from downtown LA to Inglewood is gonna be rough for those teams next year. Maybe they will helicopter from stadium to stadium or make a subway for players and management.
Is Player Efficiency Rating the be all and end of all of stats? Of course not. But still, you might find it surprising to see where TJD now ranks among all rookies with over 600 played minutes in a season since the 1962-63 season: https://stathead.com/tiny/KTlD9
Is Win Shares per 48 minutes the be all and end of all of stats? Even less so. But still, you might find it surprising to see where TJD now ranks among all rookies with over 600 played minutes in a season since the 1962-63 season: https://stathead.com/tiny/WkARt
The only other recent Warrior rookie to make the top 100 in both lists is the incomparable Jordan Bell. So the burning question is... how long before TJD starts charging stuff to coaches' hotel rooms?
It is functional as the way to include TJD, since his minutes are not very high yet. If it's too small a sample size, then his career thus far is too small a sample size.
Fun fact: Sabonis has a 9-0 record against Anthony Davis throughout his NBA career: 5-0 when Sabonis was with the Thunder and with the Pacers while Davis was with the Pelicans, and 4-0 when Sabonis was with the Kings and Davis was with the Lakers.
I love watching TJD and he is great around the rim but serious question for anyone who has watched tape or even shoot arounds: Can he shoot 3s? I know that is not his role on this team ATM but the one thing Saric gives (gave?) us is a stretch 5 with the 2nd team. I am not saying TJD should shoot 3s now, I am just curious if that is in his bag.
For what it’s worth, in an early interview TJD said that Woodson told him not to shoot. We do not know why, but it certainly affected what he did in college. Seems like several Warriors players have been told not to shoot, but to move the ball on to one of the all-time great shooters who is likely open on the floor somewhere.
I think he can learn. TJD has an advantage in that since he is not expected to take any shots outside of layups and dunks; he has a chance to rebuild his shot without it affecting his current effectiveness. Using with advanced methods: and a shot coach if he works on it steadily for 2-4 years by the time he is 26-28 he may have a reliable midrange shot and get his free throw percentage above 75%. see https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-shot-tracking-is-changing-the-way-basketball-players-fix-their-game/
I also wonder if just studying how Jokic plays would help. It seems a lot of the taller players develop a line-drive approach to shooting while Jokic has kept the arc in his shot.
Why would emulate Jokic when he has one of the greatest 3-point shooters of all time as teammate? 45% on 3’s!!! I’m sure Draymond would be willing to share some tips.
I'm not a huge Sabonis fan, but I think Sabonis should be a role model for what TJD can bring in the NBA. Sabonis is a fantastic screener and passer; I think TJD can improve those parts of his game, and he's already a better paint defender and lob finisher. Sabonis has a somewhat reliable jumper out to 12 feet, which might be a stretch for TJD but would be a goal to work towards.
And, shooting free throws; Sabonis is a career 72% from the line although he's been more erratic of late.
Exhibit B: He took a grand total of three threes in four college seasons and missed all of them. Unless he's been playing some 6D Backgammon, he's "only" an inside big.
I mean, even a mid-range would be good, but it seems like his max range is 2-3 feet. Less of a shooter than even Loon, who at least has the ability to hit them semi-consistently.
Looney also made 22 3-pointers (at 41%!!!) in his one year at UCLA. Our hope for him become a stretch big was much more realistic than hoping TJD finds a stroke.
For the principle reason that Loon was 18-19 when he put up those numbers, whereas TJD is now 24. Teenagers often add a three ball or significantly improve their existing shot, whereas 24 year-olds typically do not, except in rare cases like Brook Lopez. And even those rare cases, the players usually have better shooting peripherals (FT% e.g.) than TJD does.
But hey, guys like Bam and Sabonis are still highly effective despite having neither elite size nor a credible three ball. Being super smart, motivated, and athletic/coordinated can take you pretty far…
TJD definitely can change his shot and become a decent shooter if he wants to put in the work. It is not that difficult unless he has some mental thing.
His form is actually not that bad at all and just needs a few adjustments.
I think he needs to become a threat from 18 ft or so in and also develop his driving ability from that distance.
Regardless of how well he defended GA he is small by NBA 5 standards but he is well built and thick.
No need for every 5 to try to be Steph Curry.
He has good passing ability and if he can be a multi threat from the high post he has a chance to be a good player in my opinion, but he needs the the right system and teammates.
This team now is perfect for his current skill level.
Remember early in the year when the Dubs went on a road trip and Podz and TJD were left behind to get some playing time in SC? Dray made a big fuss about their absence and they were soon transported back to the big club. He must have seen something very special about those guys early on and it's paying dividends now.
I was talking about that recently. The trip of it is that Dray didn’t even mean it as “we need their play” he meant it as “we love having them around, they are part of the team and need to learn.” Not: sit Loon Dawg and Klay
They have a guy in Gobert who's been famously played out of the playoffs despite putting up monster RS defensive numbers, another guy in KAT who seems to be in the Ayton mold of better stats than results, and a third guy who's hella talented, probably going to be big, but might not be there yet. Oh and they need a 37 yo pg to stay healthy to lead their offense or it fully collapses. They're very good in the RS when healthy this year, but OKC, Denver and LAC all scare me more
I don't doubt their D when everyone's healthy; it's big and formidable enough to give everyone some issue. But I don't like their offense, and I think that'd get exploited, more than their D can break the warriors
“Per Cleaning The Glass, opponents shoot 5.3% worse at the rim whenever Jackson-Davis is on the floor. It’s not tough to see why — even a rim-attacking force such as Giannis Antetokounmpo found it difficult to get anything up close with Jackson-Davis nearby:”
So does B.Klopfer:
“He blocked four shots in 19 minutes, and three of those blocks were against Antetokounmpo. Who does that?”
Looking back at this game some things really stuck out:
Wiggins played really good D in his first stint but not his second and Kerr didn’t bring him back in after that, Going with the guys flying around the court instead. This may have been the a main difference between the Nuggets loss and this win.
CP is highly effective in his non end of period minutes. The way he operates with a minute or less on the clock makes it abundantly clear how his playoff runs seem to always fall short. Hopefully, Kerr has him on the court with the ball in his hands (and only his hands) for the last few possessions each quarter to build up enough film to show the effectiveness of the team oriented 73 win team’s end of quarter/game possessions vs this iso no pass version they had Curry and now have CP running.
TJD was out-freaking-standing.
Moody had a possession where he seamlessly covered three different players and the team was well coordinated behind him the whole time. They will be hell to play if that’s the level of D they sustain in the playoffs (please make top 6 🙏)
Kuminga was lightning to the ball on some key rebounds in addition to his balanced offensive play.
The splash bros are freaking epic.
So is Draymond.
I just hope Kerr sticks with the concept of playing guys who are playing hard for the rest of the season, because the strength in numbers is real, and it’s freaking fantastic to watch.
Interesting fact, Podz has played far better on the bench than with the starters. In 20 games as a starter, Podz has averaged 10 ppg on 42% from the field and 31% from deep. In 33 games off the bench, Podz has averaged 9 ppg on 47% from the field and 42% from three. He has had a better plus minus as a starter, but that might just be a result of playing with Curry/Dray.
I'm curious to see how the starters perform with a Curry/Wiggins/Moody/Kuminga/Dray lineup which loses some ball handling/rebounding but secures some defensive length.
I wouldn't make much of that disparity. When Podz is on the floor with the starters he concentrates on facilitating for Steph & JK so the shots he takes are often prayers as the shot clock expires. When with the reserves he has a higher place in the pecking order so he's taking better shots.
Interesting hypothesis, unfortunately the stats seem to be pointing in a different direction.
Podz's assist % is 4% better when he's coming off the bench AND he has a slightly better assist to turnover ratio/assists per 36. So in terms of volume/efficiency/turnovers, Podz is doing better off the bench. So if he's concentration on passing more, it isn't working in the slightest.
As for the question regarding the quality of Podz's shots when he's on the bench vs starting, I've no way of definitively determining if this is the case. What I do know, however, is that if Podz shot diet had primarily changed to prayer shots, you'd expect for his attempts to have declined. In actuality however, Podz's FG attempts per 36 remain functionally identical when he's off the bench vs starting.
Obviously, none of this is definitive, but it does heavily push back against your claim.
Ooooh, I heartily disagree. There've been studies that looked at home court advantage and it has a real impact on players/teams performance with home teams scoring 3.24 more points than the visitors on average.
As for benching vs starting, that admittedly is a lot more nebulous as coaches tend to mix and match players from both squads.
Regarding the hypothesis, look at my comment above, I think most of the evidence indicates contrary to the idea that Podz focuses more on passing in the starting lineup and primarily tosses up prayer shots.
> that might just be a result of playing with Curry/Dray
Some food for thought:
Since Feb 1, in three-man lineups that have both Curry and Dray (with at least ~200 minutes), these are the net ratings for the "third wheel" of the trios:
BP: +8.5 in 236 minutes
JK: +8.5 in 321 minutes
Wiggs: +7.8 in 237 minutes
Klay: -0.4 in 198 minutes
(Moody: +12.8 in 95 minutes... not sure if that's enough data... maybe?)
Also Curry/Wiggins/GP2/Kuminga/Dray lineup, a little better on-ball defense with a little less size, similar three point shooting, Moody is a better slasher and off-the-dribble guy, GP2 is a better cutter and finisher around the rim.
GP2 and Moody are not similar when it comes to three point shooting. There's more to it than just percentage, Moody is a significantly bigger three point threat.
Follow up observations the morning after from a guy who was at the game:
1. Everyone played well except Wiggins. He wasn’t terrible and got an early three but I think he might have lost comeback momentum once again. We’ll see. But it was nuts how everyone who came in was near peak form.
2. I don’t think CP has had a better game as a Warrior. His first stint I think he had six assists in like five minutes. The space he needed to thread a pass to a cutter was like a quarter inch. Then he started hitting threes and it was like damn if we keep this up???
3. Bobby Portis is an intense guy who plays really well on both ends. Pat Bev is an intense guy who doesn’t play well on both ends, but thinks he does. Giannis and Dame at their best are absolutely unstoppable. It looks in person like “why are we bothering to try if he’s going to do that?”
4. Our defense has not looked better all year. We just, to paraphrase Stan Van Gundy “formed a fucking WALL” on Giannis. I can boast that when Milwaukee went on a run in the third quarter and my son who went with me said “I don’t know how we stop Giannis,” I said “put in TJD.” Which Kerr did and the rest is history.
5. Speaking of Kerr, I thought he coached a great game. I’ve been on him perhaps too much all year for reflexively playing old guys at the cost of what young guys might bring. All of that has changed. We’re seeing less Looney, less Wiggins in this game, reduced roles for vets like Klay and CP this year; and the promotion of Kuminga Podz Moody TJD. It’s great to see it working, otherwise I would have had a lot of taking it back to do.
6. Chase is SO NICE. I’d only been to Oracle and the Chase sound system and Jumbotron were worth the price of admission. Airy space, great seats, loved it.
7. Kuminga is SO NICE. Alert readers will know that I appreciate his play and was hoping he would do well. Man! Early in the game he got us going with slashes to the hoop, dunks. He also hit threes and played exceptional defense on Brook Lopez and when switched on Giannis. Kuminga should definitely be benched in the playoffs if he keeps this up. Moody too. Moody’s steal and breakaway on Dame was outstanding.
8. Steph Curry is … I mean, you know, but golly dang that guy is good. I knew mid fourth that he would start entertaining himself by hitting threes before being taken out. He finds it fun to do that for the crowd. Also I don’t know if they showed it on TV but when Draymond hit back to back threes Steph stopped and gave him a look like “whaaaaaat? You can do that? Why haven’t you always done that?”
9. It was an amazing experience. I only can justify the expense of a live game every few years but this was a birthday present and I couldn’t have asked for a better game. Thanks everyone for the kind birthday wishes.
I was the guy who outside the arena after the game got a group shout of “Warrrrriooors” going as we milled about waiting for a stoplight and I’ve never been prouder.
Sad but true: I have a bum knee, nothing that will last, but I was in a wheelchair. So we deposited me in my seat and it was too much trouble to get up during the game so I never got that rice bowl. Isn't that incredibly sad?
For future reference: Chase Warriors' games have ‘semi ambulatory’ seats (not fully handicapped wheelchair accessible) that are at tops of sections or near exits, some with greater leg room. Last season being older and limping slightly with bad knees, I called and asked about the qualifications and was told that there aren't any hard fast ones. Booking with Ticketmaster they do make you check that you are aware of the designation and subject to consequences if they find you are not qualified. Since I've had recent knee replacement and very gladly take advantage.
Why does it seem like every two games, Kuminga all of a sudden turns into Rudy Gobert when it comes to rim protection.
In this game, he had three blocks. Two games ago, against the Knicks, he had two blocks. Then two games prior to that against the Hornets, he had 3 blocks.
He had zero blocks in between those games . . . its frankly weird lmao
usually, I would say that blocked shots are overrated, partly because of the reasons I stated below. But those blocks by TJD significantly changed Giannis's approach to the game, and the overall outcome.
JK Also spends a lot of time on the perimeter guard the wing. It is tougher to get blocks from out there. And shop blocking is tricky, if you're the help defender, then going for the block means you're not going to fight for the rebound if you miss the block. And if you are the on ball defender, then it also depends on what kind of shots your opponent takes.
He's not that big (for a 3/4), so he can't consistently block shots. He needs the right angles or player taking the shot to use his athleticism. He has such hops that he can do those come from behind blocks really well in the right situations.
Blocks for a guy like Kuminga will heavily depend on who he is primarily defending and whether they are working inside or more shooting jumpers. Unlike a Rudy Gobert, he's not going to be filling a role where he's e.g. in drop coverage and able to take a primary role in shot contention for anyone making it into the paint.
Game thread: https://dubnationhq.com/p/game-63-gsw-vs-chicago-plus-open?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=25649&post_id=142101259&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=3ssh4&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
If everyone's contract is lining up with Steph's last year, does that mean Steph is retiring after this contract or he'll move on to a new team?
Too soon to say. If the dubs are rolling I could see him signing 1 year contracts until he's ready to retire.
Steph is a special superstar but as a rule, none of these guys willingly leave the limelight. They do it when their body tells them it's time.
MTII article on TJD in TA:
https://theathletic.com/5324384/2024/03/07/nba-golden-state-warriors-age-trayce-jackson-davis?source=user-shared-article
Talks about how the youth movement gives the Dubs a fast, athletic team, same point as Timpf made.
Many good descriptions of TJD’s skills.
That's interesting about how Trayce's first coach at IU kept him from blocking shots.
Might explain why he got replaced :)
Since Feb. 1, we went from 30th to 14th in fast break pts and 29th to 14th points in the paint (both stats per100).
From nba.com/stats.
I just rewatched the second half, and noticed something I didn't see live ... after one of his dunks, TJD stared down the Bucks bench.
He and Dray are going to get along just fine. :)
edit: one more point ... I wonder if the refs were letting stuff go last night (they mostly were) because Silver was there. He had that statement at the all-star break about letting defenders defend.
He admitted it, but said it was just a little stare. A little rookie style stare.
It's been a trend the past few weeks:
https://twitter.com/LevAkabas/status/1763941905925050613
Fouls are way down. Helps the Warriors -- if you look at the recent low, coincides with that 18-2 start two seasons ago.
Bout time. It was making the game down right unejoyable to watch too often.
Every time I see the Warriors complaining that they didn’t get a call, I think no dude as long as the overall whistle count is low you’re going to win!
So I hope they are informed enough to be complaining in a way that says you better not call that on the other end either.
The NBA giving the Clippers a weekend back-to-back, both early afternoon games, while losing an hour for daylight savings is pretty ridiculous. The last year of the scheduling nonsense for them, though.
That's only the start. By the end of next Friday, they will have finished a stretch of five games in seven days in New Orleans. It is the second time in three seasons that Clippers will finish a 5-in-7 in the Big Easy. And it’s not the final 5-in-7 for Clippers, either.
https://twitter.com/LawMurrayTheNU/status/1765823280550732033
They also have a 2-in-5 with both games @POR.
Somebody really should do a deeper dive on all the NBA team schedules with regard to rest and travel (or maybe they have and it's nothing interesting)... with ~165 days in the regular season and 82 games to play (or possibly 83 now with IST?), it's basically an average of 1 game every 2 days.
I'm sure some teams have it slightly worse* but overall, it's probably as fair as it can be. The real issue is 82 games in 165 days. Owners don't want fewer games, and I doubt the players want a longer season.
* eg. LAC sharing an arena with LAL, SAS with their rodeo, West coast teams' longer flights
Getting from downtown LA to Inglewood is gonna be rough for those teams next year. Maybe they will helicopter from stadium to stadium or make a subway for players and management.
Clippers 1st 5-in-7:
3/9- vs. Bulls
3/10- vs. Bucks
3/12- vs. Wolves
3/14- @ Bulls
3/15- @ Pelicans
Clippers 2nd 5-in-7:
4/4- vs. Nuggets
4/5- vs. Jazz
4/7- vs. Cavaliers
4/9- @ Suns
4/10- vs. Suns
Clippers have five B2Bs remaining in their schedule: the 5-in-7's I've mentioned above, and the 3/24 and 3/25 games (vs. 76ers, vs. Pacers).
Is Player Efficiency Rating the be all and end of all of stats? Of course not. But still, you might find it surprising to see where TJD now ranks among all rookies with over 600 played minutes in a season since the 1962-63 season: https://stathead.com/tiny/KTlD9
Is Win Shares per 48 minutes the be all and end of all of stats? Even less so. But still, you might find it surprising to see where TJD now ranks among all rookies with over 600 played minutes in a season since the 1962-63 season: https://stathead.com/tiny/WkARt
The only other recent Warrior rookie to make the top 100 in both lists is the incomparable Jordan Bell. So the burning question is... how long before TJD starts charging stuff to coaches' hotel rooms?
Wow, I didn't know that. No wonder I had an irrational good feeling about that guy too
Is 600 min even a good measure though?
It is functional as the way to include TJD, since his minutes are not very high yet. If it's too small a sample size, then his career thus far is too small a sample size.
Which is basically true. He's a promising rookie ... I'm not sure I'd claim much more than that right now.
Great start, though.
That's our Baby T!
T- block
Fun fact: Sabonis has a 9-0 record against Anthony Davis throughout his NBA career: 5-0 when Sabonis was with the Thunder and with the Pacers while Davis was with the Pelicans, and 4-0 when Sabonis was with the Kings and Davis was with the Lakers.
https://www.landofbasketball.com/games_between/anthony_davis_vs_domantas_sabonis.htm
Good model for TJD.
Can we get him on a 2 way?
I love watching TJD and he is great around the rim but serious question for anyone who has watched tape or even shoot arounds: Can he shoot 3s? I know that is not his role on this team ATM but the one thing Saric gives (gave?) us is a stretch 5 with the 2nd team. I am not saying TJD should shoot 3s now, I am just curious if that is in his bag.
For what it’s worth, in an early interview TJD said that Woodson told him not to shoot. We do not know why, but it certainly affected what he did in college. Seems like several Warriors players have been told not to shoot, but to move the ball on to one of the all-time great shooters who is likely open on the floor somewhere.
YES!!! TJD CAN SHOOT THREES!
Oh wait my bad. You were probably asking if he can make them.
… uh, not so much. Look at his free throw percentage and be afraid
I think he can learn. TJD has an advantage in that since he is not expected to take any shots outside of layups and dunks; he has a chance to rebuild his shot without it affecting his current effectiveness. Using with advanced methods: and a shot coach if he works on it steadily for 2-4 years by the time he is 26-28 he may have a reliable midrange shot and get his free throw percentage above 75%. see https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-shot-tracking-is-changing-the-way-basketball-players-fix-their-game/
I also wonder if just studying how Jokic plays would help. It seems a lot of the taller players develop a line-drive approach to shooting while Jokic has kept the arc in his shot.
Why would emulate Jokic when he has one of the greatest 3-point shooters of all time as teammate? 45% on 3’s!!! I’m sure Draymond would be willing to share some tips.
On the other hand, if he could shoot 3’s, he’d have been a lottery pick and w’d have had no chance of getting him.
In Curry's mini-camp last August TJD stroked a corner three here:
https://youtu.be/rho-sJ9GfTI?t=704
He rattles in a wing trey later also.
He *can* do it, it's a matter of whether he can become more comfortable and consistent doing it.
I think TJD should focus on making FTs for now; his FT %age is 57.6%. Same thing with Podz; his FT %age is 61.3%!
I'm not a huge Sabonis fan, but I think Sabonis should be a role model for what TJD can bring in the NBA. Sabonis is a fantastic screener and passer; I think TJD can improve those parts of his game, and he's already a better paint defender and lob finisher. Sabonis has a somewhat reliable jumper out to 12 feet, which might be a stretch for TJD but would be a goal to work towards.
And, shooting free throws; Sabonis is a career 72% from the line although he's been more erratic of late.
Can't really compare TJD to Sabonis until TJD perfects the on the ground leg grab maneuver
Also: TJD on his worst day is a miles better defender than Sabonis; and D tends to be more important than O for bigs (or at least was, traditionally).
I doubt he ever gets to Sabonis’ level as a passer or overall offensive player, but I think he can at least be that *type* of player offensively.
Sadly no. Exhibit A: his free throw adventures.
Note: I’ll think he’ll be passable there but FT% is best predictor for 3-point potential I’m told
Exhibit B: He took a grand total of three threes in four college seasons and missed all of them. Unless he's been playing some 6D Backgammon, he's "only" an inside big.
I mean, even a mid-range would be good, but it seems like his max range is 2-3 feet. Less of a shooter than even Loon, who at least has the ability to hit them semi-consistently.
Looney also made 22 3-pointers (at 41%!!!) in his one year at UCLA. Our hope for him become a stretch big was much more realistic than hoping TJD finds a stroke.
For the principle reason that Loon was 18-19 when he put up those numbers, whereas TJD is now 24. Teenagers often add a three ball or significantly improve their existing shot, whereas 24 year-olds typically do not, except in rare cases like Brook Lopez. And even those rare cases, the players usually have better shooting peripherals (FT% e.g.) than TJD does.
But hey, guys like Bam and Sabonis are still highly effective despite having neither elite size nor a credible three ball. Being super smart, motivated, and athletic/coordinated can take you pretty far…
TJD definitely can change his shot and become a decent shooter if he wants to put in the work. It is not that difficult unless he has some mental thing.
His form is actually not that bad at all and just needs a few adjustments.
I think he needs to become a threat from 18 ft or so in and also develop his driving ability from that distance.
Regardless of how well he defended GA he is small by NBA 5 standards but he is well built and thick.
No need for every 5 to try to be Steph Curry.
He has good passing ability and if he can be a multi threat from the high post he has a chance to be a good player in my opinion, but he needs the the right system and teammates.
This team now is perfect for his current skill level.
That baseline jumper by Looney was a pleasant surprise last night
He can make a turnaround shot-clock-beating 12 footer
Remember early in the year when the Dubs went on a road trip and Podz and TJD were left behind to get some playing time in SC? Dray made a big fuss about their absence and they were soon transported back to the big club. He must have seen something very special about those guys early on and it's paying dividends now.
I was talking about that recently. The trip of it is that Dray didn’t even mean it as “we need their play” he meant it as “we love having them around, they are part of the team and need to learn.” Not: sit Loon Dawg and Klay
T-Wolves (3) vs. Warriors (6)
Goals
Yeah I don’t mean to be too happy about KAT going down but seeing as he has I’d love to face them now
I don't really fear them with KAT, but any loss to their starting lineup already thins their weak depth.
They have a guy in Gobert who's been famously played out of the playoffs despite putting up monster RS defensive numbers, another guy in KAT who seems to be in the Ayton mold of better stats than results, and a third guy who's hella talented, probably going to be big, but might not be there yet. Oh and they need a 37 yo pg to stay healthy to lead their offense or it fully collapses. They're very good in the RS when healthy this year, but OKC, Denver and LAC all scare me more
I agree with all this, but otoh McDaniels is probably the best defender any Western playoff team has for Steph
I don't doubt their D when everyone's healthy; it's big and formidable enough to give everyone some issue. But I don't like their offense, and I think that'd get exploited, more than their D can break the warriors
Joe Viray really likes TJD:
“Per Cleaning The Glass, opponents shoot 5.3% worse at the rim whenever Jackson-Davis is on the floor. It’s not tough to see why — even a rim-attacking force such as Giannis Antetokounmpo found it difficult to get anything up close with Jackson-Davis nearby:”
So does B.Klopfer:
“He blocked four shots in 19 minutes, and three of those blocks were against Antetokounmpo. Who does that?”
GSOM today
But do they have an irrationally good feeling about him?
Klopfer gave him an A+ which must reflect a rationally good feeling!
Looking back at this game some things really stuck out:
Wiggins played really good D in his first stint but not his second and Kerr didn’t bring him back in after that, Going with the guys flying around the court instead. This may have been the a main difference between the Nuggets loss and this win.
CP is highly effective in his non end of period minutes. The way he operates with a minute or less on the clock makes it abundantly clear how his playoff runs seem to always fall short. Hopefully, Kerr has him on the court with the ball in his hands (and only his hands) for the last few possessions each quarter to build up enough film to show the effectiveness of the team oriented 73 win team’s end of quarter/game possessions vs this iso no pass version they had Curry and now have CP running.
TJD was out-freaking-standing.
Moody had a possession where he seamlessly covered three different players and the team was well coordinated behind him the whole time. They will be hell to play if that’s the level of D they sustain in the playoffs (please make top 6 🙏)
Kuminga was lightning to the ball on some key rebounds in addition to his balanced offensive play.
The splash bros are freaking epic.
So is Draymond.
I just hope Kerr sticks with the concept of playing guys who are playing hard for the rest of the season, because the strength in numbers is real, and it’s freaking fantastic to watch.
you mean strength in "young" numbers - right!
0-32
CP3 also seems more & more vulnerable to ball pressure on those late period possessions
We...finally ... dominated a 4th quarter. Did we just officially turn it around?
We came into last night having won 11 of 14. Not sure if turning it around was needed.
All that travel and time changes must have confused us. Perhaps we thought it was the third quarter when in fact it was the fourth.
Interesting fact, Podz has played far better on the bench than with the starters. In 20 games as a starter, Podz has averaged 10 ppg on 42% from the field and 31% from deep. In 33 games off the bench, Podz has averaged 9 ppg on 47% from the field and 42% from three. He has had a better plus minus as a starter, but that might just be a result of playing with Curry/Dray.
I'm curious to see how the starters perform with a Curry/Wiggins/Moody/Kuminga/Dray lineup which loses some ball handling/rebounding but secures some defensive length.
I wouldn't make much of that disparity. When Podz is on the floor with the starters he concentrates on facilitating for Steph & JK so the shots he takes are often prayers as the shot clock expires. When with the reserves he has a higher place in the pecking order so he's taking better shots.
Interesting hypothesis, unfortunately the stats seem to be pointing in a different direction.
Podz's assist % is 4% better when he's coming off the bench AND he has a slightly better assist to turnover ratio/assists per 36. So in terms of volume/efficiency/turnovers, Podz is doing better off the bench. So if he's concentration on passing more, it isn't working in the slightest.
As for the question regarding the quality of Podz's shots when he's on the bench vs starting, I've no way of definitively determining if this is the case. What I do know, however, is that if Podz shot diet had primarily changed to prayer shots, you'd expect for his attempts to have declined. In actuality however, Podz's FG attempts per 36 remain functionally identical when he's off the bench vs starting.
Obviously, none of this is definitive, but it does heavily push back against your claim.
Seems to be more of the connector role in the starting lineup. Keep the ball moving set screens, move, etc.
Draymond usually gets the assists in there but Podz keeps the flow going pretty well. Would be nice to see the shooting improve.
I totally buy this hypothesis.
“Splits” of any kind (home v road, off bench v starting, Mondays v Tuesdays, e.g.) tend to be a lot more random than people want to believe.
Ooooh, I heartily disagree. There've been studies that looked at home court advantage and it has a real impact on players/teams performance with home teams scoring 3.24 more points than the visitors on average.
As for benching vs starting, that admittedly is a lot more nebulous as coaches tend to mix and match players from both squads.
Regarding the hypothesis, look at my comment above, I think most of the evidence indicates contrary to the idea that Podz focuses more on passing in the starting lineup and primarily tosses up prayer shots.
> that might just be a result of playing with Curry/Dray
Some food for thought:
Since Feb 1, in three-man lineups that have both Curry and Dray (with at least ~200 minutes), these are the net ratings for the "third wheel" of the trios:
BP: +8.5 in 236 minutes
JK: +8.5 in 321 minutes
Wiggs: +7.8 in 237 minutes
Klay: -0.4 in 198 minutes
(Moody: +12.8 in 95 minutes... not sure if that's enough data... maybe?)
> Curry/Wiggins/Moody/Kuminga/Dray lineup
Also Curry/Wiggins/GP2/Kuminga/Dray lineup, a little better on-ball defense with a little less size, similar three point shooting, Moody is a better slasher and off-the-dribble guy, GP2 is a better cutter and finisher around the rim.
GP2 and Moody are not similar when it comes to three point shooting. There's more to it than just percentage, Moody is a significantly bigger three point threat.
But consider a GP2/Moody/Wiggins/Kuminga/Dray lineup. Nobody scores! Not even us!
Follow up observations the morning after from a guy who was at the game:
1. Everyone played well except Wiggins. He wasn’t terrible and got an early three but I think he might have lost comeback momentum once again. We’ll see. But it was nuts how everyone who came in was near peak form.
2. I don’t think CP has had a better game as a Warrior. His first stint I think he had six assists in like five minutes. The space he needed to thread a pass to a cutter was like a quarter inch. Then he started hitting threes and it was like damn if we keep this up???
3. Bobby Portis is an intense guy who plays really well on both ends. Pat Bev is an intense guy who doesn’t play well on both ends, but thinks he does. Giannis and Dame at their best are absolutely unstoppable. It looks in person like “why are we bothering to try if he’s going to do that?”
4. Our defense has not looked better all year. We just, to paraphrase Stan Van Gundy “formed a fucking WALL” on Giannis. I can boast that when Milwaukee went on a run in the third quarter and my son who went with me said “I don’t know how we stop Giannis,” I said “put in TJD.” Which Kerr did and the rest is history.
5. Speaking of Kerr, I thought he coached a great game. I’ve been on him perhaps too much all year for reflexively playing old guys at the cost of what young guys might bring. All of that has changed. We’re seeing less Looney, less Wiggins in this game, reduced roles for vets like Klay and CP this year; and the promotion of Kuminga Podz Moody TJD. It’s great to see it working, otherwise I would have had a lot of taking it back to do.
6. Chase is SO NICE. I’d only been to Oracle and the Chase sound system and Jumbotron were worth the price of admission. Airy space, great seats, loved it.
7. Kuminga is SO NICE. Alert readers will know that I appreciate his play and was hoping he would do well. Man! Early in the game he got us going with slashes to the hoop, dunks. He also hit threes and played exceptional defense on Brook Lopez and when switched on Giannis. Kuminga should definitely be benched in the playoffs if he keeps this up. Moody too. Moody’s steal and breakaway on Dame was outstanding.
8. Steph Curry is … I mean, you know, but golly dang that guy is good. I knew mid fourth that he would start entertaining himself by hitting threes before being taken out. He finds it fun to do that for the crowd. Also I don’t know if they showed it on TV but when Draymond hit back to back threes Steph stopped and gave him a look like “whaaaaaat? You can do that? Why haven’t you always done that?”
9. It was an amazing experience. I only can justify the expense of a live game every few years but this was a birthday present and I couldn’t have asked for a better game. Thanks everyone for the kind birthday wishes.
I was the guy who outside the arena after the game got a group shout of “Warrrrriooors” going as we milled about waiting for a stoplight and I’ve never been prouder.
Wiggins was playing REALLy good defense.
Great report! But we're all still waiting for Explain One Rice Bowl
Sad but true: I have a bum knee, nothing that will last, but I was in a wheelchair. So we deposited me in my seat and it was too much trouble to get up during the game so I never got that rice bowl. Isn't that incredibly sad?
For future reference: Chase Warriors' games have ‘semi ambulatory’ seats (not fully handicapped wheelchair accessible) that are at tops of sections or near exits, some with greater leg room. Last season being older and limping slightly with bad knees, I called and asked about the qualifications and was told that there aren't any hard fast ones. Booking with Ticketmaster they do make you check that you are aware of the designation and subject to consequences if they find you are not qualified. Since I've had recent knee replacement and very gladly take advantage.
Sad indeed. But look at it this way - what you saved on not getting the rice bowl will probably pay for a week's worth of groceries.
Why does it seem like every two games, Kuminga all of a sudden turns into Rudy Gobert when it comes to rim protection.
In this game, he had three blocks. Two games ago, against the Knicks, he had two blocks. Then two games prior to that against the Hornets, he had 3 blocks.
He had zero blocks in between those games . . . its frankly weird lmao
usually, I would say that blocked shots are overrated, partly because of the reasons I stated below. But those blocks by TJD significantly changed Giannis's approach to the game, and the overall outcome.
JK Also spends a lot of time on the perimeter guard the wing. It is tougher to get blocks from out there. And shop blocking is tricky, if you're the help defender, then going for the block means you're not going to fight for the rebound if you miss the block. And if you are the on ball defender, then it also depends on what kind of shots your opponent takes.
He's not that big (for a 3/4), so he can't consistently block shots. He needs the right angles or player taking the shot to use his athleticism. He has such hops that he can do those come from behind blocks really well in the right situations.
Blocks for a guy like Kuminga will heavily depend on who he is primarily defending and whether they are working inside or more shooting jumpers. Unlike a Rudy Gobert, he's not going to be filling a role where he's e.g. in drop coverage and able to take a primary role in shot contention for anyone making it into the paint.