With Draymond coming back in the next game (which is when, in like 4 months or something?), I’m really wondering if he’s going to be smart enough to use opponents’ aggressiveness against them. We all know that every player in the NBA is going to be smack talking, pushing, poking, and out-right fouling Draymond as much as they can get away with, and they will be testing those limits vigorously. Goal: make Draymond lose his shit and get ejected again. This will be the test for Draymond over the next month.
He has got to know this is coming. Certainly the coaches know this is coming. I assume they sit down and talk about it, and game plan around it. And talk to the refs about it. There’s a real jiu jitsu opportunity to use this against the opponents, and to take advantage of it. But more than anything it will take Draymond maintaining control. Smiling. Not attacking. Not shouting at refs. Not running people over.
Odds of Draymond successfully reverse baiting opponents?
Or maybe easier to judge, what’s the over/under on
I'm curious how much people think the lack of pace has affected our offensive woes.
Personally, I think it's a pretty big deal.
I'd rate the factors as:
1. Dray out.
2. Wiggs just not getting untracked.
3. Pace
4. Klay underperforming
Rebounding is probably in there somewhere, too. Not sure where, though.
Then there are a whole bunch of lesser issues (Kuminga taking a step back, Moody inconsistency offensively, Paul not shooting much, Cojo being close to a zero offensively ... )
As much as we like to rag on Poole and his various shortcomings, he pushed the pace like a madman. I think we're really missing that. Even Steph seems to not be that interested in pace this year.
I'm not sure if pushing the pace is the solution. Our guys are older this year, so the more they play at a fast pace, the more tired they get. Plus, playing at a fast pace will play right into the hands of teams with young players like the Thunder, Pacers, Magic, etc..
The '20-21 and '22-23 teams are the two highest pace teams (102.2, 101.6) in the Steph era by a large margin. Felt like those two teams tried to compensate for lack of half court offense by pushing the pace.
This year is 99.4 which is closer to the 98.4 pace of '21-22.
Last year's 'shitshow' still got us to the second round with a fairly shallow bench. And, if Klay hadn't gone stone cold, there's a reasonable chance we could have made the conference finals (not all Klay's fault of course ... we had other issues, though I'm forgetting what they were).
I actually think this team is at it's best pushing pace. For one thing, if you are used to it, you can speed the game up (sometimes) and force the other team to make mistakes.
Plus, you just get better shots, and you get transition opportunities at the rim. I think that would do a lot to unlock Wiggs and Kuminga.
You're right. It definitely effects the offensive woes. Transition bball results in more open shots and is so less taxing on the body that 1/2 court ball requires. And if you have shooters you can make a big run with transition ball. 1st thing Draymond does is look up (down court) and pushes the action to a transition game if he sees opportunity. 7 footers have no advantage in transition game. It's actually harder on them. Paul has been pushing the ball in the past 4-5 games. Super athletic players like JK could thrive in open space fast pace ball. And of course all your great shooters too. Hopefully we see more of it tomorrow night. Kings are real good at it too.
I'm not sure if it's a coach's decision or just the combination of players on the floor.
I agree it's a big point and would expand it to transition O/D. That's been a worry of mine as much as pace in general. I wonder how much they're emphasizing minimizing turnovers in the early bit of the season? It seems like they make a lot more dumb TOs when they push, but that could just be from the increased number of actions. Not sure if that's the tradeoff or that the people who can make quick decisions aren't quick anymore, and the people who are quick don't make quick decisions.
You're down 3 with the ball and 3 seconds left. Your opponent's defenders are all out at the three point line and are happy to give you an easy dunk.
If you lose by 2 point or more, you don't make the IST quarterfinals. If you lose by 1 point, you get a slot in the quarters.
Do you try to tie the game with a 3 or take the dunk and the quarterfinal berth?
Bonus scenario - The opponent fouls you to prevent you launching a game-tying three. You make the first FT to be down 2 points. Do you just try to sink the second free throw to get into the quarterfinals or do you intentionally miss, hope for the rebound, and a chance to tie with a 2 or win with a 3?
Never sacrifice anything about the real season for the sake of the IST, is my philosophy. If we win or lose the IST I care just as much. If we win the regular season/playoffs, I care a lot.
Just the opposite, indeed. If I could be sure we'd win the regular season seedings race, I would advocate losing the IST games, as they put added physical stress on the team.
You know how the players on the winning IST team and the coaches all get money? You know who doesn't? You. You know who else? Me. And I'm already rooting for my team to win, and I am not bored by regular season games, so the whole tournament does zero for me.
Yeah, it sort of feels like you need to incentivize getting into and winning the IST to give you a perk in the end of season playoffs (automatic homecourt regardless of regular season record against your opponent, or something like that)
Totally. If you can offer me any smidge of advantage in the areas I’m already rooting for — regular season, playoffs — then I’m all for it. But as far as I can see it only incentivizes playing players more and harder which if it doesn’t translate to useful wins is useless to my interests. For example Kerr said last night that he reminded the guys with two minutes left that point differential matters for IST and I thought man if this were not a close game and you played Steph extra and he got injured, I’d lose all of my legendary equanimity and defenestrate something or someone
People ought to consider that Denver is 4-5 since Murray got hurt and squeaked by in all of their victories except the NOP one. Losing your second best player isn't a trivial thing to overcome, it's not my fault if you were in denial that Draymond was the Warriors' second best player. Judge the Warriors by how they look with their co-engine of the dynasty back in the fold, they were a bit above .500 without him in the year they won the championship too.
You're right about how important Dray is to our competitiveness Beli and I will admit that I'm perhaps overly worried. I'll lay out my thinking for why, and hopefully some of y'all can convince me otherwise.
I'm unsurprised that our defense kinda stinks without DG, that seems obvious. I'm still concerned with how bad our half court offense is, and idk whether Dray alone will fix our lethargic pace (although he's certainly going to help it). Those two points feel like they have less to do with Draymond's absence, and I'm worried that they're just indicating our peak is lower than I hoped. I know we're reliant on counter attacking after misses/ steals, but I'd be much happier if the team showed a bit more oomph.
I think to believe in the concept of the team you have to believe in the idea that Curry/Klay/Wiggins/Draymond/Looney is still a really good lineup. Everything kinda falls into place after that or falls apart if that isn't true. I'm still a believer in said lineup, all of the data about it being dominant the past two seasons was collected post-Klay injury, although perhaps it was buoyed by unsustainable Wiggins shooting? Then again Wiggins hasn't shot well in the playoffs and it was still a great lineup.
I think Draymond does impact both of your concerns significantly though. The Curry/Draymond two man game has been their go to option for a decade in terms of their halfcourt offense when they absolutely need it (also some KD thrown in there lol), remember closing out the Rockets using it like 10 straight times in 2019? And having a big like Draymond you can play through in the post also enhances Klay and Curry off ball a lot compared to having like CP3 at the top of the arc, I think it's a lot tougher for defenses to guard when they can't see both man and ball plus it's easier to shoot when you are already more lined up with the basket, which I think has been a core tenet of why Kerr throws the ball into the post so much when he can. Looney's not bad at it but also when you have both Looney and Draymond that means you have one of them screening to get guys open and both are great screeners. Not to mention it gives you the option of Draymond at center which has been a Warrior Trump Card for years. And regarding pace, I think Draymond is probably the most important reason for their pace over the years.
Regarding the bench, I think a CP3 led unit will certainly slow it down but maybe that's not so bad? Reduce the number of possessions without Curry? The unit seems to be built around the CP3/Saric two man game which is probably good enough although I think having both GP2 and Kuminga in there does kinda cramp the court a bit and give them a lack of ballhandling. They have a deep team though so a lot of options to figure something out (CP3/Moody/Wiggins/Klay/Saric and play 5 out?).
My worries about the half court are precisely that Wiggins and Klay might be slightly less effective shooting and that dragging down the half-court, so that might be most of it lol. That's a fair point about Draymond dictating tempo; I always assumed it was more through Curry with Draymond playing off that bc he's one of the smartest players around, but maybe the causal link is reversed/ moreso a function of both playing together? It makes sense that Draymond in the post can unlock the lineup in ways Paul can't. I haven't really thought about sufficiently to be really confident, and that sounds plausible.
I'm not worried about Paul slowing down the offense during the RS, but it hints at a potential lack of cohesion that would be an issue in the PS imo; being able to switch into all your best offenses with your best players is typically how teams really flex their advantages, and not being able to would cap us I think?
Side note but that parenthetical lineup would me my dream lol. All 4 outside CP3 have their shots falling they could go on some crazy runs.
While I have similar worries, I do think that missing Draymond is massively impacting the half court offense. I don’t have the stats but with Curry-Klay-Loon-Dray-Wiggins, Draymond is effectively the PG on offense. This frees Steph Klay and Wiggins to move continuously to disrupt defenses (with Looney setting massive screens, or occasionally pick-and-rolling).
Fears/questions - is Dray still able to perform this half court PG role at a high level? And why is CP3 not able to fill this role? He’s historically an excellent PG. My guess is that it’s all about timing and integration - CP3 needs a lot more reps to smoothly run the Dubs offense. And while I’m here in fear/question land, there’s the nagging worry that Klay and Wiggins will be horrible (random recent improvement notwithstanding). Their shooting woes certainly have made the starter offense problematic.
This is a great message, but I’d recommend a slightly gentler delivery. I understand your frustration with folks ignoring this simple reality, tho, haha.
I don’t have an issue with beli’s tone, though I also think it’s perfectly reasonably to believe Draymond is not the second-best player on the Warriors (at least not clearly so) without necessarily being “in denial” about stuff, and without necessarily thinking it’s belilaugh’s fault that you believe what you believe (or even knowing who the heck belilaugh is, lol).
Language matters. If you say… You are in denial… That makes it more personal and easy for some people to misconstrue or take personally. If on the other hand, you say… some people are in denial… That makes it less personal, and less likely to cause concern. Also…sorry…in this case does not really mean sorry. It is a form of veiled sarcasm, and this can be difficult for some people to hear and ignore. “What a piece of work is man, so noble in reason.” IMHO. oops, are there many humble opinions?
I think saying things like “its not my fault you're in denial”, may, could be percieved, by someone, seem as a personal attack to some (not me), and I think things have been testy around here on recent threads. So taking a deep breath and being nice to each other is generally good practice. Not accusing anyone of being unkind, just trying to explain what dfib may have been refering to. The gentleness and goodheartedness Its what makes dnhq so good.
As they say, the best ability is availability. If the combination of old man nagging injuries and immature behavior knocks Dray out, then that is part of what the Dubs have as a team--they WILL play some games without Dray. It is folly to act like you can assume Dray will be there when it matters. He knocked himself out of what would probably have been the final Finals game of the 73-win season, for Christ sake. The man is getting increasingly unreliable when it matters.
Don't buy it tbh. Apricot can delete it if they want because it's their site but I stand by the comment being appropriate for DNHQ in tone and content.
If you’re smiling impishly when you say “it’s not my fault you’re in denial”, that seems ok. If you’re bitterly calling out someone who disagrees with you, then I have a problem with it.
I choose to believe it’s the first.
And the goodheartedness of DNHQ is quite important to me.
I'll be honest, I find this to be a fairly ridiculous discussion and I don't like having to explain myself when I think the premise of the critique is based on a reach. So I'll drop it because it's your site and if you delete it then I'll accept that but not because I think it's fair, more because I think you have the right to make unfair decisions since it's your site. No hard feelings either way.
EA sets a high bar for site decorum deletions. You do you, but OakTown’s explanation of my intended message is pretty much exactly what I had meant. You don’t have to be gentle, but its a nice thing to do. Am I always gentle? No. I’m not out here saying I’m better than anybody else…
So, I’m thinking it might be the best outcome to beat the Kings on Tuesday, but not by enough to make the elimination rounds, so we get our two games against presumably lesser teams that don’t make the elimination rounds.
We have 3 scheduled games against these teams:
HOU, POR, NOP, OKC, MIN, MEM. So these could be the teams we play against if we miss the elimination round.
Either HOU or NOP will make the elimination round, and MIN has a chance too. We would certainly play 1x against POR. Prob other against MIN or OKC, since they’re closest. If we make the elimination round, we’d play 2x of LAL, PHX, and HOU/NOP.
I was thinking this exact thing. Would I rather the Dubs get tough teams and progress through the IST. Or possibly get two games against Portland? I would choose the latter.
On a separate note, I’m gonna be mildly pissed if the Lakers or Suns squeak by the Dubs on the strength of going 11-6 in division over the Dubs’ 10-6, simply because they played an extra division game in the elimination round.
Tuesday is a big day for all the reasons and it could be a turning point for the season. The game will matter and all will be available, so no excuses. If they step up and win big, even if they don’t make the needed point total (presuming that still matters), it could propel them forward. I’d love to see one or two of our wings break out and start to take the position away from the others. Remember when Draymond just grabbed the starting forward spot from David Lee? The dubs sprung forward from there. They are in need of something like that now.
For that to happen the coach has to be willing to have a tough conversation with whomever he is benching. Kerr has shown zero willingness or ability to do that to the OGs. So I do not believe any level of excellent performance will be enough to dislodge one of the OGs from the starting lineup.
Tuesday would certainly be a big win but @SAC isn't a gimme even at full strength, and the Kings is going to be pretty motivated given the recent history (and also have three days of rest). I think if they are good this season it will (and has to) show up soon but I don't think Tuesday is make or break, other than for the IST.
Well, a loss Tues can be explained away. The Kings ARE good. And veteran teams that mix in new talent aim to gel at the end of the season. So, no, it wouldn’t be hopeless after a loss. But I believe, with the record they have now, a good win on Tuesday will be much more important to their psyche than any win so far this season. There is pressure. They can step up.
I’d love to see a good run of Steph, GP2 (on Fox), Klay, Saric, and Draymond - with an emphasis on lock-down D. Let the O come after stops. I don’t think they have yet found the Steph, Klay, and Dray combo that will have the best +/-
Do you have any feelings about where the make or break point is? I've been operating on "a few games with Stay will tell us whether this team can definitely go on a run", but it's not super precise
Yea, I was thinking that another dozen to 15 games would tell us something about where the season is likely to go (as always, assuming no further injuries/absences). The Dubs are 8-9 now. After 30 games are they 18-12 with consistent output from Klay and Wiggs? Or 15-15 with lots of ups and downs? Or 12-18 with injuries, poor play and nobody shooting other than Steph?
More than a few, I would think. It's not just Dray back with the starters ... Paul gets pushed back to the bench, and the minutes get re-sorted again. It may have more of an effect on the bench than the starters.
Honestly, unless Klay and Wiggs get back to their normal selves, the starters are pretty close to capped out, at least offensively. We'll have to see how much having Dray back fixes that.
Some of Steph’s “aren’t on him” either. Hell, CP3’s lone turnover was probably Saric cutting the wrong way. Steph still seems to be struggling this year a bit on that front. I put that mostly on the tremendous burden he carries as the only reliable scoring threat on the team. Hopefully Wiggins and Klay (and the return of Draymond) help out in that regard.
New thread: https://dubnationhq.com/p/explain-new-warriors-dario-saric
With Draymond coming back in the next game (which is when, in like 4 months or something?), I’m really wondering if he’s going to be smart enough to use opponents’ aggressiveness against them. We all know that every player in the NBA is going to be smack talking, pushing, poking, and out-right fouling Draymond as much as they can get away with, and they will be testing those limits vigorously. Goal: make Draymond lose his shit and get ejected again. This will be the test for Draymond over the next month.
He has got to know this is coming. Certainly the coaches know this is coming. I assume they sit down and talk about it, and game plan around it. And talk to the refs about it. There’s a real jiu jitsu opportunity to use this against the opponents, and to take advantage of it. But more than anything it will take Draymond maintaining control. Smiling. Not attacking. Not shouting at refs. Not running people over.
Odds of Draymond successfully reverse baiting opponents?
Or maybe easier to judge, what’s the over/under on
- number of ejections?
- date hitting 14th tech?
What say you, prognosticators?
I believe he and the team are royally effed in this way, but I have been known to be wrong, from time to time.
Assist/TO ratio, rounded to the nearest 100ths:
1. Pacers (2.33)
2. Nuggets (2.14)
3. Mavericks (2.13)
4. Wizards (2.06)
5. Rockets (2.03)
6. Kings (1.95)
7. Heat (1.94)
8. Raptors, 76ers (1.87)
10. Bucks (1.85)
11. Pelicans, Warriors (1.83)
...
19. Lakers (1.75)
...
23. Suns (1.71)
24. Grizzlies (1.70)
25. Clippers (1.68)
26. Wolves (1.66)
27. Pistons (1.54)
28. Jazz (1.53)
29. Magic (1.52)
30. Blazers (1.37)
Opponent turnovers per game:
1. Magic (17.1)
2. Heat (16.6)
3. Blazers (16.5)
4. Bulls, Grizzlies (16.2)
6. Thunder (16.1)
7. Hawks, Clippers (16.2)
9. Wizards (15.6)
10. Wolves (14.7)
11. Raptors (14.6)
12. Cavaliers, Kings (14.5)
14. Spurs (14.3)
15. Knicks, Mavericks, Lakers, Pacers (14.1)
19. Warriors, 76ers (14.0)
21. Pelicans (13.8)
22. Rockets (13.7)
23. Jazz, Hornets (13.3)
25. Suns (13.2)
26. Nuggets, Bucks (12.9)
28. Celtics (12.3)
29. Pistons (11.8)
30. Nets (11.3)
Turnovers per game:
1. Mavericks (11.9)
2. Bulls (12.1)
3. Rockets (12.7)
4. Pacers (13.0)
5. Heat, Knicks, Nuggets, and Wizards (13.3)
9. Bucks and 76ers (13.4)
11. Celtics (13.5)
12. Pelicans (13.9)
13. Kings, Nets, Hornets (14.1)
16. Grizzlies (14.2)
17. Cavaliers (14.4)
18. Thunder (14.5)
19. Clippers (14.7)
20. Lakers (14.9)
21. Timberwolves, Warriors (15.2)
23. Hawks (15.3)
24. Raptors, Suns (15.4)
26. Magic (15.9)
27. Blazers (16.1)
28. Spurs (16.2)
29. Pistons (17.3)
30. Jazz (17.5)
Crusty where the heck are you!?? Fight night tonight i got both Benavidez brothers going down tonight
I don't watch fights but y'all's ongoing discussion is one of my favorite things about this forum, honestly.
Thank you! Basketball and Boxing probably the only thing i watch consistently. Its been awhile though cause ole ma’am/dude hasn’t been around in a min
Also, heard this blast from the past and thought someone should do a Curry highlights mixtape with a retro/80's/VHS filter!
https://youtu.be/47y5bo8wtqM?si=Pw6fO1XYrhJqX-1x
🎶"Shooting at the walls of heartache (bang, bang)
I am the warrior
Well, I am the warrior
And heart to heart you'll win
If you survive, the warrior, the warrior"
Especially with opponent player/crowd reactions to Curry's "Heartache" daggers 😱
Saw this and Thought (some of) You Might Enjoy:
The Chaos Theory of Basketball (18mins)
https://youtu.be/ZZqGO2kQ5Cw?si=xHY2wX-mT3t_4Gv4
Enjoyed. Thanks.
I found myself irrationally delighted by the seemingly irrelevant fact that Wemby seems like a nice guy.
I'm curious how much people think the lack of pace has affected our offensive woes.
Personally, I think it's a pretty big deal.
I'd rate the factors as:
1. Dray out.
2. Wiggs just not getting untracked.
3. Pace
4. Klay underperforming
Rebounding is probably in there somewhere, too. Not sure where, though.
Then there are a whole bunch of lesser issues (Kuminga taking a step back, Moody inconsistency offensively, Paul not shooting much, Cojo being close to a zero offensively ... )
As much as we like to rag on Poole and his various shortcomings, he pushed the pace like a madman. I think we're really missing that. Even Steph seems to not be that interested in pace this year.
I'm not sure if pushing the pace is the solution. Our guys are older this year, so the more they play at a fast pace, the more tired they get. Plus, playing at a fast pace will play right into the hands of teams with young players like the Thunder, Pacers, Magic, etc..
The '20-21 and '22-23 teams are the two highest pace teams (102.2, 101.6) in the Steph era by a large margin. Felt like those two teams tried to compensate for lack of half court offense by pushing the pace.
This year is 99.4 which is closer to the 98.4 pace of '21-22.
I agree we should push the pace more, but we're 12th in pace this season. We were 1st in last year's shitshow, and 15th in 21-22 when we won it all.
Last year's 'shitshow' still got us to the second round with a fairly shallow bench. And, if Klay hadn't gone stone cold, there's a reasonable chance we could have made the conference finals (not all Klay's fault of course ... we had other issues, though I'm forgetting what they were).
I actually think this team is at it's best pushing pace. For one thing, if you are used to it, you can speed the game up (sometimes) and force the other team to make mistakes.
Plus, you just get better shots, and you get transition opportunities at the rim. I think that would do a lot to unlock Wiggs and Kuminga.
Mostly Poole’s fault last year
You're right. It definitely effects the offensive woes. Transition bball results in more open shots and is so less taxing on the body that 1/2 court ball requires. And if you have shooters you can make a big run with transition ball. 1st thing Draymond does is look up (down court) and pushes the action to a transition game if he sees opportunity. 7 footers have no advantage in transition game. It's actually harder on them. Paul has been pushing the ball in the past 4-5 games. Super athletic players like JK could thrive in open space fast pace ball. And of course all your great shooters too. Hopefully we see more of it tomorrow night. Kings are real good at it too.
I'm not sure if it's a coach's decision or just the combination of players on the floor.
It's also a way to leverage our bench strength.
For instance, Podz may not be all that good at running a half court offense, but I'll bet he can run a break. And TJD is a good rim-runner.
That would have another benefit, in that we could perhaps reduce the starters minutes a bit more (Steph's minutes are still too high, IMHO).
I agree it's a big point and would expand it to transition O/D. That's been a worry of mine as much as pace in general. I wonder how much they're emphasizing minimizing turnovers in the early bit of the season? It seems like they make a lot more dumb TOs when they push, but that could just be from the increased number of actions. Not sure if that's the tradeoff or that the people who can make quick decisions aren't quick anymore, and the people who are quick don't make quick decisions.
Hypothetical:
You're down 3 with the ball and 3 seconds left. Your opponent's defenders are all out at the three point line and are happy to give you an easy dunk.
If you lose by 2 point or more, you don't make the IST quarterfinals. If you lose by 1 point, you get a slot in the quarters.
Do you try to tie the game with a 3 or take the dunk and the quarterfinal berth?
Bonus scenario - The opponent fouls you to prevent you launching a game-tying three. You make the first FT to be down 2 points. Do you just try to sink the second free throw to get into the quarterfinals or do you intentionally miss, hope for the rebound, and a chance to tie with a 2 or win with a 3?
Never sacrifice anything about the real season for the sake of the IST, is my philosophy. If we win or lose the IST I care just as much. If we win the regular season/playoffs, I care a lot.
Just the opposite, indeed. If I could be sure we'd win the regular season seedings race, I would advocate losing the IST games, as they put added physical stress on the team.
You know how the players on the winning IST team and the coaches all get money? You know who doesn't? You. You know who else? Me. And I'm already rooting for my team to win, and I am not bored by regular season games, so the whole tournament does zero for me.
Yeah, it sort of feels like you need to incentivize getting into and winning the IST to give you a perk in the end of season playoffs (automatic homecourt regardless of regular season record against your opponent, or something like that)
Totally. If you can offer me any smidge of advantage in the areas I’m already rooting for — regular season, playoffs — then I’m all for it. But as far as I can see it only incentivizes playing players more and harder which if it doesn’t translate to useful wins is useless to my interests. For example Kerr said last night that he reminded the guys with two minutes left that point differential matters for IST and I thought man if this were not a close game and you played Steph extra and he got injured, I’d lose all of my legendary equanimity and defenestrate something or someone
Random stat; total points for the season:
Embiid: 447 (4th)
Curry: 446
Giannis: 445
Tatum: 444
People ought to consider that Denver is 4-5 since Murray got hurt and squeaked by in all of their victories except the NOP one. Losing your second best player isn't a trivial thing to overcome, it's not my fault if you were in denial that Draymond was the Warriors' second best player. Judge the Warriors by how they look with their co-engine of the dynasty back in the fold, they were a bit above .500 without him in the year they won the championship too.
draymond is our second best player and our best defensive player, simple as that
You're right about how important Dray is to our competitiveness Beli and I will admit that I'm perhaps overly worried. I'll lay out my thinking for why, and hopefully some of y'all can convince me otherwise.
I'm unsurprised that our defense kinda stinks without DG, that seems obvious. I'm still concerned with how bad our half court offense is, and idk whether Dray alone will fix our lethargic pace (although he's certainly going to help it). Those two points feel like they have less to do with Draymond's absence, and I'm worried that they're just indicating our peak is lower than I hoped. I know we're reliant on counter attacking after misses/ steals, but I'd be much happier if the team showed a bit more oomph.
I think to believe in the concept of the team you have to believe in the idea that Curry/Klay/Wiggins/Draymond/Looney is still a really good lineup. Everything kinda falls into place after that or falls apart if that isn't true. I'm still a believer in said lineup, all of the data about it being dominant the past two seasons was collected post-Klay injury, although perhaps it was buoyed by unsustainable Wiggins shooting? Then again Wiggins hasn't shot well in the playoffs and it was still a great lineup.
I think Draymond does impact both of your concerns significantly though. The Curry/Draymond two man game has been their go to option for a decade in terms of their halfcourt offense when they absolutely need it (also some KD thrown in there lol), remember closing out the Rockets using it like 10 straight times in 2019? And having a big like Draymond you can play through in the post also enhances Klay and Curry off ball a lot compared to having like CP3 at the top of the arc, I think it's a lot tougher for defenses to guard when they can't see both man and ball plus it's easier to shoot when you are already more lined up with the basket, which I think has been a core tenet of why Kerr throws the ball into the post so much when he can. Looney's not bad at it but also when you have both Looney and Draymond that means you have one of them screening to get guys open and both are great screeners. Not to mention it gives you the option of Draymond at center which has been a Warrior Trump Card for years. And regarding pace, I think Draymond is probably the most important reason for their pace over the years.
Regarding the bench, I think a CP3 led unit will certainly slow it down but maybe that's not so bad? Reduce the number of possessions without Curry? The unit seems to be built around the CP3/Saric two man game which is probably good enough although I think having both GP2 and Kuminga in there does kinda cramp the court a bit and give them a lack of ballhandling. They have a deep team though so a lot of options to figure something out (CP3/Moody/Wiggins/Klay/Saric and play 5 out?).
My worries about the half court are precisely that Wiggins and Klay might be slightly less effective shooting and that dragging down the half-court, so that might be most of it lol. That's a fair point about Draymond dictating tempo; I always assumed it was more through Curry with Draymond playing off that bc he's one of the smartest players around, but maybe the causal link is reversed/ moreso a function of both playing together? It makes sense that Draymond in the post can unlock the lineup in ways Paul can't. I haven't really thought about sufficiently to be really confident, and that sounds plausible.
I'm not worried about Paul slowing down the offense during the RS, but it hints at a potential lack of cohesion that would be an issue in the PS imo; being able to switch into all your best offenses with your best players is typically how teams really flex their advantages, and not being able to would cap us I think?
Side note but that parenthetical lineup would me my dream lol. All 4 outside CP3 have their shots falling they could go on some crazy runs.
Oh, there’s also Draymond’s impact on defense which turns into fast break offense, which we’ve been missing.
While I have similar worries, I do think that missing Draymond is massively impacting the half court offense. I don’t have the stats but with Curry-Klay-Loon-Dray-Wiggins, Draymond is effectively the PG on offense. This frees Steph Klay and Wiggins to move continuously to disrupt defenses (with Looney setting massive screens, or occasionally pick-and-rolling).
Fears/questions - is Dray still able to perform this half court PG role at a high level? And why is CP3 not able to fill this role? He’s historically an excellent PG. My guess is that it’s all about timing and integration - CP3 needs a lot more reps to smoothly run the Dubs offense. And while I’m here in fear/question land, there’s the nagging worry that Klay and Wiggins will be horrible (random recent improvement notwithstanding). Their shooting woes certainly have made the starter offense problematic.
This is a great message, but I’d recommend a slightly gentler delivery. I understand your frustration with folks ignoring this simple reality, tho, haha.
I don’t have an issue with beli’s tone, though I also think it’s perfectly reasonably to believe Draymond is not the second-best player on the Warriors (at least not clearly so) without necessarily being “in denial” about stuff, and without necessarily thinking it’s belilaugh’s fault that you believe what you believe (or even knowing who the heck belilaugh is, lol).
Language matters. If you say… You are in denial… That makes it more personal and easy for some people to misconstrue or take personally. If on the other hand, you say… some people are in denial… That makes it less personal, and less likely to cause concern. Also…sorry…in this case does not really mean sorry. It is a form of veiled sarcasm, and this can be difficult for some people to hear and ignore. “What a piece of work is man, so noble in reason.” IMHO. oops, are there many humble opinions?
Gentler how and to whom? Not really seeing anything here.
I'm good
I think saying things like “its not my fault you're in denial”, may, could be percieved, by someone, seem as a personal attack to some (not me), and I think things have been testy around here on recent threads. So taking a deep breath and being nice to each other is generally good practice. Not accusing anyone of being unkind, just trying to explain what dfib may have been refering to. The gentleness and goodheartedness Its what makes dnhq so good.
As they say, the best ability is availability. If the combination of old man nagging injuries and immature behavior knocks Dray out, then that is part of what the Dubs have as a team--they WILL play some games without Dray. It is folly to act like you can assume Dray will be there when it matters. He knocked himself out of what would probably have been the final Finals game of the 73-win season, for Christ sake. The man is getting increasingly unreliable when it matters.
Don't buy it tbh. Apricot can delete it if they want because it's their site but I stand by the comment being appropriate for DNHQ in tone and content.
If you’re smiling impishly when you say “it’s not my fault you’re in denial”, that seems ok. If you’re bitterly calling out someone who disagrees with you, then I have a problem with it.
I choose to believe it’s the first.
And the goodheartedness of DNHQ is quite important to me.
I'll be honest, I find this to be a fairly ridiculous discussion and I don't like having to explain myself when I think the premise of the critique is based on a reach. So I'll drop it because it's your site and if you delete it then I'll accept that but not because I think it's fair, more because I think you have the right to make unfair decisions since it's your site. No hard feelings either way.
EA sets a high bar for site decorum deletions. You do you, but OakTown’s explanation of my intended message is pretty much exactly what I had meant. You don’t have to be gentle, but its a nice thing to do. Am I always gentle? No. I’m not out here saying I’m better than anybody else…
So, I’m thinking it might be the best outcome to beat the Kings on Tuesday, but not by enough to make the elimination rounds, so we get our two games against presumably lesser teams that don’t make the elimination rounds.
We have 3 scheduled games against these teams:
HOU, POR, NOP, OKC, MIN, MEM. So these could be the teams we play against if we miss the elimination round.
Either HOU or NOP will make the elimination round, and MIN has a chance too. We would certainly play 1x against POR. Prob other against MIN or OKC, since they’re closest. If we make the elimination round, we’d play 2x of LAL, PHX, and HOU/NOP.
nah, I wanna win
I was thinking this exact thing. Would I rather the Dubs get tough teams and progress through the IST. Or possibly get two games against Portland? I would choose the latter.
On a separate note, I’m gonna be mildly pissed if the Lakers or Suns squeak by the Dubs on the strength of going 11-6 in division over the Dubs’ 10-6, simply because they played an extra division game in the elimination round.
Tuesday is a big day for all the reasons and it could be a turning point for the season. The game will matter and all will be available, so no excuses. If they step up and win big, even if they don’t make the needed point total (presuming that still matters), it could propel them forward. I’d love to see one or two of our wings break out and start to take the position away from the others. Remember when Draymond just grabbed the starting forward spot from David Lee? The dubs sprung forward from there. They are in need of something like that now.
For that to happen the coach has to be willing to have a tough conversation with whomever he is benching. Kerr has shown zero willingness or ability to do that to the OGs. So I do not believe any level of excellent performance will be enough to dislodge one of the OGs from the starting lineup.
Tuesday would certainly be a big win but @SAC isn't a gimme even at full strength, and the Kings is going to be pretty motivated given the recent history (and also have three days of rest). I think if they are good this season it will (and has to) show up soon but I don't think Tuesday is make or break, other than for the IST.
Well, a loss Tues can be explained away. The Kings ARE good. And veteran teams that mix in new talent aim to gel at the end of the season. So, no, it wouldn’t be hopeless after a loss. But I believe, with the record they have now, a good win on Tuesday will be much more important to their psyche than any win so far this season. There is pressure. They can step up.
I’d love to see a good run of Steph, GP2 (on Fox), Klay, Saric, and Draymond - with an emphasis on lock-down D. Let the O come after stops. I don’t think they have yet found the Steph, Klay, and Dray combo that will have the best +/-
…and Dray has been out for five games. I doubt it will look seamless 1sr game back and this is coming off a 24 turnover game without him.
Definitely not “make or break” and at best a toss-up. The kings are good!
Do you have any feelings about where the make or break point is? I've been operating on "a few games with Stay will tell us whether this team can definitely go on a run", but it's not super precise
Yea, I was thinking that another dozen to 15 games would tell us something about where the season is likely to go (as always, assuming no further injuries/absences). The Dubs are 8-9 now. After 30 games are they 18-12 with consistent output from Klay and Wiggs? Or 15-15 with lots of ups and downs? Or 12-18 with injuries, poor play and nobody shooting other than Steph?
More than a few, I would think. It's not just Dray back with the starters ... Paul gets pushed back to the bench, and the minutes get re-sorted again. It may have more of an effect on the bench than the starters.
Honestly, unless Klay and Wiggs get back to their normal selves, the starters are pretty close to capped out, at least offensively. We'll have to see how much having Dray back fixes that.
I was wondering if Steph led the league in turnovers (he's having a truly atrocious year on that score), but it's not even close.
He's got 55, Cade Cunningham has 76.
Cade's averaging 4.75 turnovers a game. Admittedly it's Detroit, so probably a bunch of those aren't really on him, but still.
Some of Steph’s “aren’t on him” either. Hell, CP3’s lone turnover was probably Saric cutting the wrong way. Steph still seems to be struggling this year a bit on that front. I put that mostly on the tremendous burden he carries as the only reliable scoring threat on the team. Hopefully Wiggins and Klay (and the return of Draymond) help out in that regard.
For sure. There has been plenty of fumblebum play by everyone on the team so far, missed reads, all the usual stuff.
Hopefully, they'll settle down. I'm somewhat dubious that it will happen soon, though.