For posterity so I can refer back to it later in the season. Other than Asher B. and myself, who still believes that the Warriors are a very good team?
Currently, the team is ranked 11th in the West. I'm pretty sure the team is way better than that.
At the start of the season, I predicted us at 4th. After a few tough losses including these but, more importantly, not splitting the games against Cleveland or Minnesota, I'm revising my predictions for the Dubs downward. I now think we're ~6th in the West.
They're below OKC and Den for me and in a soup of good-potentially-great teams with the LA teams, Pho, SAC and MN. Whether they're actually great depends on if they can show the glimpses we've seen are sustainable
Oh it's opt-in now? Lotta people gonna be down on the team by default.
They're great this year. The bench winning games is crazy. Personally I've noticed for a while now that a schedule seems to be able to tank any team for a stretch in the NBA. Maybe it's gotten more extreme in this age of high pace games. (Plus, obviously, Wiggs and Klay early season.)
They're going to become a stronger and stronger team as the season goes on. The main thing I'm worried about is, in my memory, the OGs have tended to drop a lot of games in January and February each season even going back to the Durant years. Will they play better during the run up to all star break or will they have to push for wins right at the end of the season, when apparently the schedule is terrible again?
In the playoffs, they're a much better team than last year.
Me. Not necessarily WGBC, but I think they have a run coming and could be a tough out in the playoffs. Also, looking at the West, if they can get in the playoffs, I'm not sure there is really that much of a gap between teams, so having to play the #1 or #2 seed won't that much tougher than playing the 4 and 5 seeds. In other words, this may be a good year to not be great in the regular season.
GP3 would have picked up George full court simply tp disrupt. Should be W's standard approach in last possession needing a stop or lower percentage shot ( think Malik Monk). Shame to give up such a great effort.
While I wanted Lively, that is one player that im honestly glad for him he ended up in the offensive system he did. He would have been squarely behind Looney, Saric and Draymond in the pecking order here. Now that’s what I fully expected regardless for the first year or two banking on high TRUE upside and fit. What I wasn’t counting on was him being this good this quickly.
Trades … the Dubs haven’t been a team for major in-season trades, and their most dumpable commodities (CP3 and Klay) are expensive, have problems, and hard to get rid of for team morale reasons. So I’m predicting they play it out with this crew. Klay and CP3 contracts are over and those two return on much cheaper deals (a possibility if they play so badly they keep the Dubs out of the playoffs) or not at all. All of a sudden the Dubs have some cap space to work with.
Given the cap situation, I believe the only way to bring back CP3 next season is to exercise the $30M option, unless he wants to come back at the vet min.
I'm not sure he's worth 30M next season but even if he's only available for half the games Chris Paul will be worth way more than a vet min. I can't believe I'm saying this.
No doubt he’s worth more than the vet min. Theoretically they could let Klay and walk and use the MLE on him, but I do not think that’s what will happen.
Steph has a negative net rating for the season. His turnover rate is terrible and his defensive metrics are really bad. Should we be worried or should this be cause for optimism because he's Steph and that will inevitably turn around?
The latter. Trust the 900-game career sample with the net on-off of +11.0 (and the 147-game playoff sample with +12.0) over the 18-game sample. Particularly when most of his peripherals except the turnover rate (31.3 pts on .671 true shooting e.g.) are better than his career averages.
well, there is "Age" and maybe it is showing up towards the end of games. I would really like Kerr to somehow reduce Steph-Klay-Drays regular season playing time to 30 mins or less. Their 4th quarter play could be just fatigue from playing 30+ minutes
Just like last season, what has showed up at the end of games in this recent stretch has been Curry wearing down due to a lack of bench relief. Sacramento and LAC both went at him knowing that CP3 was out.
Reduce Curry's burden earlier in the game and you'll get what we got in that Houston game, which was this season.
Agreed.Instead of having him play when we are leading by 10+ with the inevitable collapse, keep him fresh for the last 7-8 minutes. Others need to keep the game close
Steph, Dray and Klay’s minutes loads have all been significantly reduced from where they were last season (a modest 33.4, 29.8, 24.5 mpg, respectively).
You could reduce Steph a by a couple more minutes per game,, but the Warriors are also trying to win games. You can say, “well, they’re not winning!” but Kerr can’t know that in advance; and more Steph tends to = better chance of winning. 33 mpg (with 2 games missed out of 20) doesn’t seem excessive to me. In any case I don’t think fans on a fan board have a better read on his optimal minutes load than Celebrini and Steph himself do.
OKC leads 111-87 with 10:30 left and is cruising to an easy win.
Dallas proceeds to go on a ***30-0*** run over a span of 6:07 (led by Seth Curry, Derrick Jones Jr., and Dereck Lively II) to take a 117-111 lead with 4 minutes left.
OKC, seemingly unfazed, closes the game 15-3 to win it, 126-120.
To be honest to anyone that think we might be shopping JK, if that is true I would think Kerr would try to showcase him more especially after his "best game this season" to up his trade value. Weather Kerr likes it or not if MDJ plans to trade him I think he would talk to Kerr about giving him the opportunity until a trade is done.
Kings beat the Nuggets 123-117. Kings move to 11-7 and 6-2 at home while the Nuggets fall to 14-7 and 5-7 on the road. Nuggets nearly made a comeback late in the 4th Q, but the Kings managed to hold on.
If Dubs hold on against OKC, Sac, and the Clips, they'd be 12-8 and tied with Phoenix. Long season ahead, and lots of good signs even with the late-game collapses
Does that mean that they need to make a move before the trade deadline? Because it's clear that our vets no longer have the ability to dominate for 48 minutes.
I just can’t see the Warriors making any move involving a max contract UNLESS
a). Brings back another expiring contract like lets say a CP3 for Tobias Harris trade (AS AN EXAMPLE only)
b). Willing to trade Wiggins and possibly Kuminga using that Paul contract as a defacto expiring
Otherwise just looking at the standings there are about 22 teams in contention and 8 teams (4 from each conference) that can probably be counted as possible sellers at this point. Just don’t see any move centered around Kuminga and Paul/Wiggins that will give the Ws financial flexibility come offseason and also net us any impact starter. My money is on us staying put and reevaluating the roster this next offseason
We don’t need Hayward taking minutes away from our wings.
I think we’re riding with who we have. There isn’t a team in the NBA we can’t beat. That doesn’t mean we will, just that we can win a championship with who we have right now. Very few thought the Warriors would win it all two years ago. If our somewhat older starting five work the kinks out, I’d argue we have a better team than 2022. Patience.
> Pat Spencer will make his season debut tonight for the (6-1) @GLeagueWarriors against the (4-5) @ripcityremix. On air at 7pm PT on @NBCSAuthentic with myself on pxp, @DrewShiller on color and @JDumasReports on sidelines. Talk soon!
https://open.substack.com/pub/dubnation/p/warriors-blow-yet-another-huge-lead?r=3lpzv&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web WAIT WAIT WAIT we lost again?
For posterity so I can refer back to it later in the season. Other than Asher B. and myself, who still believes that the Warriors are a very good team?
Unequivocally, I do believe the Dubs are still a very good team. I will live or die as a homer.
I’m in. Still a good team. 5th or 6th on the west by tend if the season. Dangerous in the playoffs.
Currently, the team is ranked 11th in the West. I'm pretty sure the team is way better than that.
At the start of the season, I predicted us at 4th. After a few tough losses including these but, more importantly, not splitting the games against Cleveland or Minnesota, I'm revising my predictions for the Dubs downward. I now think we're ~6th in the West.
Me. Tough schedule, missed games and flukey finishes makes their record not indicative of their play and ability.
To add, this is my favorite bench ever.
They're below OKC and Den for me and in a soup of good-potentially-great teams with the LA teams, Pho, SAC and MN. Whether they're actually great depends on if they can show the glimpses we've seen are sustainable
The only teams that I think are definitely better are the Nuggets and Celtics. But they haven't played like a very good team so far.
With average health and average random ending luck, I think GSW should be a second tier contender with a puncher’s chance to beat anyone.
Oh it's opt-in now? Lotta people gonna be down on the team by default.
They're great this year. The bench winning games is crazy. Personally I've noticed for a while now that a schedule seems to be able to tank any team for a stretch in the NBA. Maybe it's gotten more extreme in this age of high pace games. (Plus, obviously, Wiggs and Klay early season.)
They're going to become a stronger and stronger team as the season goes on. The main thing I'm worried about is, in my memory, the OGs have tended to drop a lot of games in January and February each season even going back to the Durant years. Will they play better during the run up to all star break or will they have to push for wins right at the end of the season, when apparently the schedule is terrible again?
In the playoffs, they're a much better team than last year.
Me. Not necessarily WGBC, but I think they have a run coming and could be a tough out in the playoffs. Also, looking at the West, if they can get in the playoffs, I'm not sure there is really that much of a gap between teams, so having to play the #1 or #2 seed won't that much tougher than playing the 4 and 5 seeds. In other words, this may be a good year to not be great in the regular season.
But, I've been told I'm an optimist.
C'est moi.
I still think their floor is the second round, unless there is some disastrous injury luck.
Me
Me
+1
I think it’s in there somewhere.
I’m convinced that we have a championship caliber team
Me! We’ll be a 3 seed by season’s end.
GP3 would have picked up George full court simply tp disrupt. Should be W's standard approach in last possession needing a stop or lower percentage shot ( think Malik Monk). Shame to give up such a great effort.
Kuninga or Moody should've got the chance to defend that last shot against PG, I think results would've been different.
Derrick Lively with 20 pts/16 rbds/7 blocks. Ahhh what could have been.
While I wanted Lively, that is one player that im honestly glad for him he ended up in the offensive system he did. He would have been squarely behind Looney, Saric and Draymond in the pecking order here. Now that’s what I fully expected regardless for the first year or two banking on high TRUE upside and fit. What I wasn’t counting on was him being this good this quickly.
No way.
You don't think that Kerr drools over the idea of having a two-way center? That's essentially what they want Saric to be.
Will be interesting to watch the Olympics, with Kerr coaching Joel.
> He would have been squarely behind Looney, Saric and Draymond in the pecking order here.
I don't know about that
Trades … the Dubs haven’t been a team for major in-season trades, and their most dumpable commodities (CP3 and Klay) are expensive, have problems, and hard to get rid of for team morale reasons. So I’m predicting they play it out with this crew. Klay and CP3 contracts are over and those two return on much cheaper deals (a possibility if they play so badly they keep the Dubs out of the playoffs) or not at all. All of a sudden the Dubs have some cap space to work with.
Given the cap situation, I believe the only way to bring back CP3 next season is to exercise the $30M option, unless he wants to come back at the vet min.
I'm not sure he's worth 30M next season but even if he's only available for half the games Chris Paul will be worth way more than a vet min. I can't believe I'm saying this.
No doubt he’s worth more than the vet min. Theoretically they could let Klay and walk and use the MLE on him, but I do not think that’s what will happen.
Dear 49ers, please don’t eff up this weekend completely !
From a DUBS fan
Steph has a negative net rating for the season. His turnover rate is terrible and his defensive metrics are really bad. Should we be worried or should this be cause for optimism because he's Steph and that will inevitably turn around?
To be honest, I don't really think net rating should be used as an individual stat.
EPM has Curry as #6 in the league:
https://dunksandthrees.com/epm
I’d like to see his net rating if you take out minutes on the court Wiggins. Seems like he’s dragged down all the starters with his Rocky start.
There are only 4 lineups that Curry has played more than 10 min with on the season that don’t have Wiggins.
They range from +7.7 to +11.8 net rtg
So there we have it
The latter. Trust the 900-game career sample with the net on-off of +11.0 (and the 147-game playoff sample with +12.0) over the 18-game sample. Particularly when most of his peripherals except the turnover rate (31.3 pts on .671 true shooting e.g.) are better than his career averages.
well, there is "Age" and maybe it is showing up towards the end of games. I would really like Kerr to somehow reduce Steph-Klay-Drays regular season playing time to 30 mins or less. Their 4th quarter play could be just fatigue from playing 30+ minutes
Just like last season, what has showed up at the end of games in this recent stretch has been Curry wearing down due to a lack of bench relief. Sacramento and LAC both went at him knowing that CP3 was out.
Reduce Curry's burden earlier in the game and you'll get what we got in that Houston game, which was this season.
Agreed.Instead of having him play when we are leading by 10+ with the inevitable collapse, keep him fresh for the last 7-8 minutes. Others need to keep the game close
Steph, Dray and Klay’s minutes loads have all been significantly reduced from where they were last season (a modest 33.4, 29.8, 24.5 mpg, respectively).
You could reduce Steph a by a couple more minutes per game,, but the Warriors are also trying to win games. You can say, “well, they’re not winning!” but Kerr can’t know that in advance; and more Steph tends to = better chance of winning. 33 mpg (with 2 games missed out of 20) doesn’t seem excessive to me. In any case I don’t think fans on a fan board have a better read on his optimal minutes load than Celebrini and Steph himself do.
This is my hypothesis and conclusion as well.
Insane OKC v Dallas game.
OKC leads 111-87 with 10:30 left and is cruising to an easy win.
Dallas proceeds to go on a ***30-0*** run over a span of 6:07 (led by Seth Curry, Derrick Jones Jr., and Dereck Lively II) to take a 117-111 lead with 4 minutes left.
OKC, seemingly unfazed, closes the game 15-3 to win it, 126-120.
30-0 run? Suddenly I feel a lot better about some of our recent stretches.
So far, a season full of surprises (good and bad). Will it all 'settle in' sooner than later?
Didn’t catch the game. JK with a team high +5 but only 15 minutes after his “best game of the year.”
What gives?
JK has to play well for more than one game to secure a meaningful change in his standard minutes.
I didn't watch the game so I have no way of verifying if JK played a good game, but his basic statline is not encouraging.
Kerr at his lousy best there - as per norm
To be honest to anyone that think we might be shopping JK, if that is true I would think Kerr would try to showcase him more especially after his "best game this season" to up his trade value. Weather Kerr likes it or not if MDJ plans to trade him I think he would talk to Kerr about giving him the opportunity until a trade is done.
Loll… Steph in the second half: 18% TS
Half time came at a bad time for Steph...
Seriously. He was in full human torch mode for a few minutes there.
Lakers beat the Rockets 107-97. Lakers move to 12-9 and 8-2 at home while the Rockets fall to 8-9 and 0-8 on the road.
How many NBA players have stripped Haren on his patented double step back? Is it more than one?
Bearding Beard!
I feel like there's been more than one person who's stripped on Haren.
He’s stepping into most of those situations, tho
Kings beat the Nuggets 123-117. Kings move to 11-7 and 6-2 at home while the Nuggets fall to 14-7 and 5-7 on the road. Nuggets nearly made a comeback late in the 4th Q, but the Kings managed to hold on.
If Dubs hold on against OKC, Sac, and the Clips, they'd be 12-8 and tied with Phoenix. Long season ahead, and lots of good signs even with the late-game collapses
Suns and Clippers won, and the Lakers and Kings are winning. Argh. Everyone in the Pacific Division is moving ahead of us.
Western Conference is a bloodbath. The Warriors can't afford to wait until Jan to find their footing.
Does that mean that they need to make a move before the trade deadline? Because it's clear that our vets no longer have the ability to dominate for 48 minutes.
I just can’t see the Warriors making any move involving a max contract UNLESS
a). Brings back another expiring contract like lets say a CP3 for Tobias Harris trade (AS AN EXAMPLE only)
b). Willing to trade Wiggins and possibly Kuminga using that Paul contract as a defacto expiring
Otherwise just looking at the standings there are about 22 teams in contention and 8 teams (4 from each conference) that can probably be counted as possible sellers at this point. Just don’t see any move centered around Kuminga and Paul/Wiggins that will give the Ws financial flexibility come offseason and also net us any impact starter. My money is on us staying put and reevaluating the roster this next offseason
I would do CP3 for Hayward, gives us better size at a position we need to improve at and his skillset fits the Warriors.
We don’t need Hayward taking minutes away from our wings.
I think we’re riding with who we have. There isn’t a team in the NBA we can’t beat. That doesn’t mean we will, just that we can win a championship with who we have right now. Very few thought the Warriors would win it all two years ago. If our somewhat older starting five work the kinks out, I’d argue we have a better team than 2022. Patience.
> Pat Spencer will make his season debut tonight for the (6-1) @GLeagueWarriors against the (4-5) @ripcityremix. On air at 7pm PT on @NBCSAuthentic with myself on pxp, @DrewShiller on color and @JDumasReports on sidelines. Talk soon!
https://twitter.com/kevo408/status/1731142312527577420
He's back.
Spencer for Higher.
Shiller or Spencer?