This would be a great article - just a quick overview of a look at the Dubs' in-season tournament games, the opponents, how much or how little we actually care about them, and it could be a series, getting updates after each inseason game.
@TwoRingTest: I think it was you that I mentioned that I didn't think Steph's game against Sacto was in my top 30-40 Steph games (regular season)? If not, to whomever I said that; I entered the game into my spreadsheet tracking my blended metric of rate-adjusted game score and win probability added, and it's actually 29th by my metric, so a bit higher than I was evaluating at the time. In particular the WPA of 37% was higher than I anticipated http://stats.inpredictable.com/nba/wpBox.php?season=2023&month=10&date=2023-10-27&gid=0022300087 and Steph played fewer minutes than I realized so the per-36 scaling helped too.
Sleepy will be happy to know that one Davion Mitchell came in last with a WPA of -8.3% in that game....
Before the season I said, “I know hockey substitutions aren’t a thing, but I really want to see CP3, GP2, MM, JFK and Dario together.” They seemed like a nice blend of BBIQ, defense, playmaking and scoring. Now Kerr is actually doing it and I love it! Paul McMoney and Wings are putting on good shows.
1. As we’ve noted, the starting 5 is the best lineup in the game and Kerr mentioned it in the presser last night. A full bench squad lets those guys play maximum minutes together.
2. CP3 leading the bench squad lets him be “the man in charge” and main decision maker in a way he never could with Curry and Draymond on the floor. The reduced minutes load of something like last night’s 27 is obviously better for his geriatric body.
3. The two squads can practice together against each other.
4. I’m hoping there’s a little friendly competition where the bench guys try to make a case for more minutes and the starters play their best to prove they’re still top dogs. I think this would be especially healthy for JK, where he gets that it’s about all five of them playing well instead of just his own numbers.
5. Given the new load management rules, it’s very easy for Kerr to play everyone, but adjust the minutes mix by upping the reserves’ minutes and playing the starters less on any given game without sitting them, which sort of happened last night.
I think Kerr deserves tons of credit for handling the egos the way he has this far, and MDJ for having the vision. Remember, a lot of pundits thought this wasn’t a real move and that they were gonna flip Paul.
Also to add to your great points is this allows Paul to run the 2nd group at his pace - good for his legs but also as a changeup. If he wants to push the pace just needs to pass it to the running youngins.
They were doing so well Kerr left them out there I thought longer than I expected - first unit was off esp cause of dray but wondering if that didn't also affect their rhythm in the third and if they continue so we'll going forward if this becomes an issue at all
The only thing about minutes management I would add is that the load and effort on a player’s body to get up to game shape for even 5 minutes of playing is a significant load compared to DNP’s
Agreed, which is why my note was an "add" rather than a "but." The overall minutes played and averaged minutes played absolutely matter - Just that 2 games of 10 minutes and 25 minutes are significantly more load than 1 game of 35 and 1 game of 0. And this is also player dependent, of course, as some players simply can't go 35 minutes in a game without potentially catastrophic durability issues.
I think Paul is still going to have an ego edge that could pop up at times, but if the results continue to be excellent, they'll speak for themselves and he'll be a good soldier.
Green is getting the green light on the front side of a road back-to-back. The Warriors also play on Monday night in New Orleans. Like Klay Thompson a day prior, Green declared his intention to play on both sides of it.
“Hell yeah,” Green said. “I got goals. I got goals. I don’t know what they are yet. But I’m going to need to play 65 games (to reach some of them).”
Green is referring to the NBA’s new rule requiring players to participate in 65 games to be eligible for major awards like, in his case, NBA Defensive Player of the Year and an All-NBA team. It’s part of the league’s crackdown on load management, searching for any kind of incentive to get the best players in the league to appear more often.
Man, imagine if DPOY Dray shows up this year. Along with MVP Curry and this bench-squad? WGBC!
I'm a bit concerned about Green tonight. Getting back into game condition shape is not easy - and he did not look ready last night. He looked rusty AF. Now, he has to go back to back and play tonight?
If he had a couple days off before his next game, I wouldn't worry, but B2B? yikes. I'd think that his body would be sore as fuck today and not used to the workout that going at full game intensity for 21 minutes last night was like. If it were me, I'd be tapping out. But I'm not paid as much as Dray is. LOL. I hope he's on the same 20 minute minutes restriction, at least.
We all know what the starters bring but this reserve unit has the potential to be very good defensively as well. Just gotta wait until TJD earns Steve's trust enough for a bigger role in the rotation. That rim protection is the last stone for this Golden Gauntlet.
Also, the deadline for the 14th spot is approaching.. I wonder who gets the nod. JK & Moody has shown they're legit rotational pieces this year so we really just need some insurance for them in the case they have to sit out a game here and there.
I wouldn't be surprised if the Dubs used #14 for Rudy Gay. He'd hardly get on the court but he could be a good influence on the young guys, and the Dubs like their vets.
What a difference a year makes. Last year, with empty roster spots given to Rollins, Andre, PBJ, and Wiseman, and with Moody and JK struggling to get minutes, the Dubs had to rely on a lot of minutes from Jerome and #40. This year, barring injuries, it's going to be hard for the #11-13 players (TJD, Podz, Joseph) to even get on the court, and LQ and Garuba (and Robinson, I guess) are waiting in the wings. So the decision about who to take at #14 (let alone what to do with #15) doesn't seem so important this year.
I mean, Wise, Moody, and JK were not intended to be empty roster spots. Myers just over-estimated their ability and readiness to contribute to a playoff team with title aspirations. But frankly, he may have done this year's team a favor. If healthy equivalents for OPJ and Bjeli and GP2 had all been signed last summer, then JK and MM would not have gotten the minutes they needed to develop their second year, and would not be as eye-poppingly ready for their roles this season.
As for Wiseman, I wouldn't mind if the Dubs brought him back on a 2-way. Too bad he's not eligible.
One of the most exciting things about yesterday's game was the rotation. It was a 10 man rotation. The lineups all made sense. Everyone played 17 to 31 minutes. That's a recipe for a really good regular season team.
It's hard to have a true 11 man rotation. TJD will find his minutes for some matchups but I think its mostly when someone is hurt or taking a night off. Same for CoJo and Podz.
I'm not convinced about this. Saric is a great stretch 5, but he's also limited defensively. TJD's surest course to improved minutes is to show that he can be a lockdown defender in the 5 while still adding value on the boards and being a vertical threat. Basically, the Javale light with better defense - something akin to what we all wanted for J-Dub.
That gives Steve a decision to make for the second unit - Go offense with Saric and his 3-pt shot and superior passing, picks, and roll skills, with ok-defense or Go defense with TJD.
Is TJD's defense real though? I have no feel for it - he may have just gotten a lucky stretch or two, and will lapse back into becoming a typical rookie big where the game is moving too fast for him, and make rookie defensive mistakes. Or his 4 years of college ball may have made him a great help and perimeter defender already.
Agreed. I really like Saric but so far other centers have tried to bully him as Sabonis and Segun did in the last couple games. Besides foul trouble, this type of physicality from stronger bodies may wear him down or cause injury over the course of a long season. Playing TJD in spots not only gives the rookie a chance to develop, but it can also help preserve Saric. I believe Kerr should find these minutes now and last night would have been a good opportunity. There may even be other times where it could be interesting to see if the two could share the floor against bigger lineups if TJD shows he can be trusted.
That's true! He could theoretically beat out Saric for the main backup minutes. I don't think what we've seen is a mirage from him, I think he can be really good.
But I think it would take a while, and he'd have to be REALLY good. Because even though Saric has been more OK than great so far, that stretch shooting big is such an easy fit into lineups. It would take a LOT for Kerr not to default to the veteran stretch big that he loves, but so rarely has had on his roster.
That would be exciting though! I wouldn't be surprised if TJD's playing time creeps up in 2nd half of the year and his skillset actually might be the better fit for the playoffs when teams hunt bad defensive matchups.
I also think Kerr will be extra leery of removing Saric from CP3's minutes because the two have obvious existing chemistry which is working well for that unit.
I largely agree, but on the flip side of this it's quite possible that TJD and CP3 develop their own chemistry over the course of the season, as TJD is the type of big man (athletic above-the-rim finisher and effective roller) who has flourished when working with CP3 over the years. It won't be the norm but I definitely think there will be a few matchups where Kerr is comfortable giving TJD significant minutes.
Given the current level of depth that has Joseph and TJD not really even playing, I think the best move for now would be to sign someone to a non-guaranteed deal to be in compliance with the league roster size requirements but have the flexibility to add multiple players if needed later in the season.
Of course the pool of players willing to take a non-guaranteed deal probably isn't that large, so I'm wondering if that's why Jerome Robinson is on the team lol.
This reserve unit may be better defensively than the starters. They have had multiple timeframes over multiple games where they've strung together several minutes of consecutive stops. It's quite amazing, actually. JK, MM, GP2 are amazing defensively when they click, and then with CP3 directing, it's really only Saric that's the weakest overall link - When TJD was in for him, they had like a 60+ Defensive rating.
Yeah, assuming health I think this team could be one of the best defensive teams in the league. They've looked really good in the super early going, much better than I expected.
The biggest issue is rebounding, but you don't need to rebound if your shot goes in and the other team can't get one off :)
Yes, it's good that CP is good with coming off the bench. But honestly, I've always thought this was an overblown ego thing. A basketball player's job is to play basketball as the coach directs. Starting or not does not tell me if you're good. It's in your job description. It's like if an architect at a residential firm takes umbrage at designing bathrooms. Get over yourself. Not to mention that many a bench guy has played as many or more minutes than a starter or two. It's not like the starters have an aura around them wherever they travel and will be admitted to Valhalla and bench guys not. I'm glad CP took it well but if he hadn't, he's not a real basketball player, he's a punk. So say I.
I do think minutes is different. If you tell Jokic "you have to play 4 minutes a game, Zeke Nnaji is gonna eat up your minutes," I think he would be right to ask a few questions. Like for example: "Who's Zeke Nnaji?"
Article about CP3 coming off the bench including a pre-camp meeting Kerr held with the starters and CP3 to make sure everyone was on the same page about winning being the main goal this season (a welcome change from last season).
From the article, everyone talked about how important that meeting was for group unity, except Klay who said he barely remembered the meeting. Always on brand
I don't know if they still do it, but they used to have a coaches' offsite in Napa in the offseason, for the coaches to work out their game plan for the next year.
It would have been very interesting to hear the discussions in those meetings around team chemistry (or our new word, 'connectivity').
Quotes from Wiggins and CP3 reinforcing that players don't like being benched for starting/closing moments, but that as long as you win they can accept it:
> “Loon was playing good,” Wiggins said. “Draymond was playing good. Klay was playing good. Everyone was playing good. Stuff happens. The coaches make a decision that’s best. We won the game. As long as we keep winning, I’m fine. I gotta give them a reason not to take me out. Rebound more. I can do more.”
> “Did I like it?” Paul said. “Who likes new things? It ain’t a matter of liking it. It’s new. I don’t hate it. It ain’t a matter of liking it. I like the fact that we won. That’s the most important thing.”
Also a quote about CP3 appreciating that the organization includes him in the dialogue about big decisions:
> An hour after the game, Paul spent several minutes discussing this drastic late-career rotational change with The Athletic. He agreed that the pre-camp meeting in Kerr’s office was crucial, generating the type of open dialogue Paul craves. If a decision is reasoned, shared and discussed, he is comfortable with the choice.
> “Yes,” Paul said. “Because it’s talking. We’re communicating. We ain’t just coming up to somebody day of and saying: ‘Hey, this is happening.'”
> “Did I like it?” Paul said. “Who likes new things? It ain’t a matter of liking it. It’s new. I don’t hate it. It ain’t a matter of liking it. I like the fact that we won. That’s the most important thing.”
Even going back to the "you coaching?" comment a friend's take has stuck with me. CP3 is here most likely just for this year, and probably wants to be a starter next year and get a starter's salary. So even if he's fine with it for this situation he's going to be a little bit bristly about it for the media just to keep showing the mentality that he sees himself as a starter.
Regarding the "you coaching?" comment, from the article (I think the last paragraph speaks to your point that mentally CP3 sees this as a one year thing and he'll be all in for this year before leaving just like with OKC):
> “It was over-exaggerated because I’ll tell you this: It wasn’t a question,” Paul said. “She made a statement. I know what the media is like. I know what I said in there. I know what bullet points gonna be taken from that.”
> Paul then wanted to give a little history lesson, beginning back in the summer of 2019 when the Houston Rockets flipped him for Russell Westbrook and the entire world assumed he was going to force a buyout and muscle his way to Los Angeles.
> “When I went to OKC, what’d everyone say? ‘He wants to be traded. He wants out of there,'” Paul said. “People always speaking for me. The very first meeting I had in OKC, did I tell you what happened? I stood up in front of my teammates and said, ‘Don’t pay attention to what the media says about me trying to get moved out of here. I don’t know how to be half in and half out. I’m here.'”
Maybe, but I bet he thinks coming here, learning how we do things and winning a championship would give him the right additional knowledge to apply it to another team
But what if what he learns is that you have to be willing to sacrifice for the greater good, even if it means coming off the bench when you're good enough to start?
That's one potential lesson! I'm sure he could talk about that experience on the next team he leads to convince a very good player to come off the bench :)
Not so surprising, the two-way players haven't seen the floor. Looks like they will be spending a majority of their time in the G league as long as the main squad remains healthy.
The team isn't a finished product by any means, It's great to rack up a win while getting to work through the bugs with an inspired but worse team than most.
I'd say it's better than even money Draymond doesn't play tonight because of that head knock.
I was pretty disappointed with the Warriors that he didn't get checked out immediately, before the free throw (they took a TO shortly afterward ... hopefully they checked him then).
Although it was a hard knock, I was comfortable with it. The dubs trainers are the best.
When you hit your head, there are two main concerns. Was it hard enough to cause intracranial swelling or bleeding? - in which case you would need a CT scan within hours to see if a neurosurgeon needed to open up the skull to take some pressure off. Or could there be a concussion? - in which case the main thing is to not risk another head injury during the recovery time (which varies depending on all kinds of factors). In either case, Draymond would be displaying some combination of a headache, nausea, confusion, or lightheadedness. If Draymond was honest with his trainers, he could have been cleared in minutes - and risked little shooting free throws before coming off the floor.
My own impression (no more than that) is that competitive athletes tend to overestimate their ability to recover, and the decision to be evaluated, or keep playing, should not be in their hands at all for a potential concussion.
That may be changing a bit with the focus on concussions the last 5-10 years.
Wasn't it this year or last year an NFL player took himself into concussion protocol? If the NFL culture is changing, I'd bet it's happening in the NBA
A positive way to view it is that the Paul-Saric combo is about +8 per 100 possessions despite 3/21 from 3. They'll definitely shoot a lot better then that over the course of the season.
Wow- that’s an amazing viewpoint. Let’s give the two of them a paltry 33% 3pt%, and they hit four additional 3’s for 12 points. on those four shots, let’s assume a SSS super generous 50% o-Reb percentage, and a 50% o-putback %, resulting in 2 possessions and one two point score. Assuming no decrease in opponent offense due to the three additional made shots, that would’ve netted at least +10 more, so +18 assuming merely poor shooting rather than atrocious.
I’ve been more excited anticipating the play of Chris Paul with the 2nd team of Saric, Kuminga, GP2, and Moody than I have of the ho-hum hall-of-famers 1st team. And tonight’s bench play showed why. The 1st team could chill and get inspired by 2nd team’s play. I hope coach Kerr will consider starting the 2nd team at some point in the season. It would mess up the other team’s psyche: should they also start their backups? Or stay with 1st string and let their bench take on Steph Curry’s crew? That would be off the hook fun! Hahaha.
I totally agree with your plot. But remember, out 2nd team is generally not playing the opponents' best players - at least some of whom are resting from their labors against our starters. Perhaps our 2nd team can be more effective than our 1st. Perhaps we'll see.
I’d give 2nd team some time to jell. With Chris Paul’s tutelage, that 2nd team can potential be the best bench in the NBA, and can can give a run for the money against some 1st teams!
My memory may be failing me, but it seems like teams are no longer just leaving Kuminga completely open and daring him to shoot. The scouting report seems to indicate that he'll hit those at high efficiency.
Next step for Kuminga, start hitting these much less open shots at an average efficiency (35%).
So far, I'd say his most immediate challenge is playing more disciplined across all three phases (if rebounding counts as a phase).
I'm not even really talking about the brain fart foul at the end of the quarter. He had two offensive fouls in the first half I believe (one for sure).
The one I can recall was an illegal screen trying to get Paul open and he was doing way too much on the screen (close to a pulling guard level of pushing). Paul was already wide open.
Wait, we won last night?! https://dubnationhq.com/p/a-late-curry-flurry-gives-rockets
Is this upcoming OKC game one of the four group games for the midseason tournament?
@Daniel @EA @DNHQ crew:
This would be a great article - just a quick overview of a look at the Dubs' in-season tournament games, the opponents, how much or how little we actually care about them, and it could be a series, getting updates after each inseason game.
Yes: https://www.nba.com/warriors/news/in-season-tournament-games-announced-20230815
@TwoRingTest: I think it was you that I mentioned that I didn't think Steph's game against Sacto was in my top 30-40 Steph games (regular season)? If not, to whomever I said that; I entered the game into my spreadsheet tracking my blended metric of rate-adjusted game score and win probability added, and it's actually 29th by my metric, so a bit higher than I was evaluating at the time. In particular the WPA of 37% was higher than I anticipated http://stats.inpredictable.com/nba/wpBox.php?season=2023&month=10&date=2023-10-27&gid=0022300087 and Steph played fewer minutes than I realized so the per-36 scaling helped too.
Sleepy will be happy to know that one Davion Mitchell came in last with a WPA of -8.3% in that game....
Yep, twere me.
Glad it passes your spreadsheet scrutiny. It certainly was a gem, however it ranks.
Before the season I said, “I know hockey substitutions aren’t a thing, but I really want to see CP3, GP2, MM, JFK and Dario together.” They seemed like a nice blend of BBIQ, defense, playmaking and scoring. Now Kerr is actually doing it and I love it! Paul McMoney and Wings are putting on good shows.
1. As we’ve noted, the starting 5 is the best lineup in the game and Kerr mentioned it in the presser last night. A full bench squad lets those guys play maximum minutes together.
2. CP3 leading the bench squad lets him be “the man in charge” and main decision maker in a way he never could with Curry and Draymond on the floor. The reduced minutes load of something like last night’s 27 is obviously better for his geriatric body.
3. The two squads can practice together against each other.
4. I’m hoping there’s a little friendly competition where the bench guys try to make a case for more minutes and the starters play their best to prove they’re still top dogs. I think this would be especially healthy for JK, where he gets that it’s about all five of them playing well instead of just his own numbers.
5. Given the new load management rules, it’s very easy for Kerr to play everyone, but adjust the minutes mix by upping the reserves’ minutes and playing the starters less on any given game without sitting them, which sort of happened last night.
I think Kerr deserves tons of credit for handling the egos the way he has this far, and MDJ for having the vision. Remember, a lot of pundits thought this wasn’t a real move and that they were gonna flip Paul.
Also to add to your great points is this allows Paul to run the 2nd group at his pace - good for his legs but also as a changeup. If he wants to push the pace just needs to pass it to the running youngins.
They were doing so well Kerr left them out there I thought longer than I expected - first unit was off esp cause of dray but wondering if that didn't also affect their rhythm in the third and if they continue so we'll going forward if this becomes an issue at all
Great stuff Goofus. Agreed on all points. The second unit already seems to have more of an identity than it did all of last year.
The only thing about minutes management I would add is that the load and effort on a player’s body to get up to game shape for even 5 minutes of playing is a significant load compared to DNP’s
Yeah, but there's less "desperate leaping as high as possible to score/defend". Over time it does add up. That "5m less playing" time is still useful.
Agreed, which is why my note was an "add" rather than a "but." The overall minutes played and averaged minutes played absolutely matter - Just that 2 games of 10 minutes and 25 minutes are significantly more load than 1 game of 35 and 1 game of 0. And this is also player dependent, of course, as some players simply can't go 35 minutes in a game without potentially catastrophic durability issues.
I think Paul is still going to have an ego edge that could pop up at times, but if the results continue to be excellent, they'll speak for themselves and he'll be a good soldier.
I just read this quote that came out Saturday from a Slater article (https://theathletic.com/5007776/2023/10/29/draymond-green-warriors-debut/):
Green is getting the green light on the front side of a road back-to-back. The Warriors also play on Monday night in New Orleans. Like Klay Thompson a day prior, Green declared his intention to play on both sides of it.
“Hell yeah,” Green said. “I got goals. I got goals. I don’t know what they are yet. But I’m going to need to play 65 games (to reach some of them).”
Green is referring to the NBA’s new rule requiring players to participate in 65 games to be eligible for major awards like, in his case, NBA Defensive Player of the Year and an All-NBA team. It’s part of the league’s crackdown on load management, searching for any kind of incentive to get the best players in the league to appear more often.
Man, imagine if DPOY Dray shows up this year. Along with MVP Curry and this bench-squad? WGBC!
I'm a bit concerned about Green tonight. Getting back into game condition shape is not easy - and he did not look ready last night. He looked rusty AF. Now, he has to go back to back and play tonight?
If he had a couple days off before his next game, I wouldn't worry, but B2B? yikes. I'd think that his body would be sore as fuck today and not used to the workout that going at full game intensity for 21 minutes last night was like. If it were me, I'd be tapping out. But I'm not paid as much as Dray is. LOL. I hope he's on the same 20 minute minutes restriction, at least.
We all know what the starters bring but this reserve unit has the potential to be very good defensively as well. Just gotta wait until TJD earns Steve's trust enough for a bigger role in the rotation. That rim protection is the last stone for this Golden Gauntlet.
Also, the deadline for the 14th spot is approaching.. I wonder who gets the nod. JK & Moody has shown they're legit rotational pieces this year so we really just need some insurance for them in the case they have to sit out a game here and there.
I wouldn't be surprised if the Dubs used #14 for Rudy Gay. He'd hardly get on the court but he could be a good influence on the young guys, and the Dubs like their vets.
Yes but he’d have To be a guaranteed deal which would limit future flexibility. And do they need another “vet presence?”
What a difference a year makes. Last year, with empty roster spots given to Rollins, Andre, PBJ, and Wiseman, and with Moody and JK struggling to get minutes, the Dubs had to rely on a lot of minutes from Jerome and #40. This year, barring injuries, it's going to be hard for the #11-13 players (TJD, Podz, Joseph) to even get on the court, and LQ and Garuba (and Robinson, I guess) are waiting in the wings. So the decision about who to take at #14 (let alone what to do with #15) doesn't seem so important this year.
I mean, Wise, Moody, and JK were not intended to be empty roster spots. Myers just over-estimated their ability and readiness to contribute to a playoff team with title aspirations. But frankly, he may have done this year's team a favor. If healthy equivalents for OPJ and Bjeli and GP2 had all been signed last summer, then JK and MM would not have gotten the minutes they needed to develop their second year, and would not be as eye-poppingly ready for their roles this season.
As for Wiseman, I wouldn't mind if the Dubs brought him back on a 2-way. Too bad he's not eligible.
I wonder if JK's discussion about role might have just been a discussion about a trade in that circumstance
Yah, that might've happened, too.
I don't think it's a trust thing with TJD.
One of the most exciting things about yesterday's game was the rotation. It was a 10 man rotation. The lineups all made sense. Everyone played 17 to 31 minutes. That's a recipe for a really good regular season team.
It's hard to have a true 11 man rotation. TJD will find his minutes for some matchups but I think its mostly when someone is hurt or taking a night off. Same for CoJo and Podz.
It's a good thing.
I'm not convinced about this. Saric is a great stretch 5, but he's also limited defensively. TJD's surest course to improved minutes is to show that he can be a lockdown defender in the 5 while still adding value on the boards and being a vertical threat. Basically, the Javale light with better defense - something akin to what we all wanted for J-Dub.
That gives Steve a decision to make for the second unit - Go offense with Saric and his 3-pt shot and superior passing, picks, and roll skills, with ok-defense or Go defense with TJD.
Is TJD's defense real though? I have no feel for it - he may have just gotten a lucky stretch or two, and will lapse back into becoming a typical rookie big where the game is moving too fast for him, and make rookie defensive mistakes. Or his 4 years of college ball may have made him a great help and perimeter defender already.
Agreed. I really like Saric but so far other centers have tried to bully him as Sabonis and Segun did in the last couple games. Besides foul trouble, this type of physicality from stronger bodies may wear him down or cause injury over the course of a long season. Playing TJD in spots not only gives the rookie a chance to develop, but it can also help preserve Saric. I believe Kerr should find these minutes now and last night would have been a good opportunity. There may even be other times where it could be interesting to see if the two could share the floor against bigger lineups if TJD shows he can be trusted.
That's true! He could theoretically beat out Saric for the main backup minutes. I don't think what we've seen is a mirage from him, I think he can be really good.
But I think it would take a while, and he'd have to be REALLY good. Because even though Saric has been more OK than great so far, that stretch shooting big is such an easy fit into lineups. It would take a LOT for Kerr not to default to the veteran stretch big that he loves, but so rarely has had on his roster.
That would be exciting though! I wouldn't be surprised if TJD's playing time creeps up in 2nd half of the year and his skillset actually might be the better fit for the playoffs when teams hunt bad defensive matchups.
I also think Kerr will be extra leery of removing Saric from CP3's minutes because the two have obvious existing chemistry which is working well for that unit.
I largely agree, but on the flip side of this it's quite possible that TJD and CP3 develop their own chemistry over the course of the season, as TJD is the type of big man (athletic above-the-rim finisher and effective roller) who has flourished when working with CP3 over the years. It won't be the norm but I definitely think there will be a few matchups where Kerr is comfortable giving TJD significant minutes.
The paint would be pretty packed with TJD, JK and GP2 lurking in the vincinity.
Hmm… this is true. GP2 and JK can both hit the open three but communication would have to be on point so they don’t both cut at the same time.
Given the current level of depth that has Joseph and TJD not really even playing, I think the best move for now would be to sign someone to a non-guaranteed deal to be in compliance with the league roster size requirements but have the flexibility to add multiple players if needed later in the season.
Of course the pool of players willing to take a non-guaranteed deal probably isn't that large, so I'm wondering if that's why Jerome Robinson is on the team lol.
Jerome Robinson: I am inevitable.
This reserve unit may be better defensively than the starters. They have had multiple timeframes over multiple games where they've strung together several minutes of consecutive stops. It's quite amazing, actually. JK, MM, GP2 are amazing defensively when they click, and then with CP3 directing, it's really only Saric that's the weakest overall link - When TJD was in for him, they had like a 60+ Defensive rating.
With the caveat that the 2nd stringers are playing against the other team's 2nd stringers.
Draymond and Wiggins will be back to form soon enough… starters gonna be fine
Good thing is we have both TJD and Saric depending on matchups. It's nice to have way more versatility this year.
Yeah, assuming health I think this team could be one of the best defensive teams in the league. They've looked really good in the super early going, much better than I expected.
The biggest issue is rebounding, but you don't need to rebound if your shot goes in and the other team can't get one off :)
If you have a hole punching tool that isn't wilted, you have a ...?
.... crisp awl.
Thank you. Thank you very much. Thank you, everyone. Really, I appreciate it so much. Thank you. Good night, San Francisco!
I hope you know that bad puns are grounds for account deactivation and removal from DNHQ. You have been warmed.
>bad puns are grounds for account deactivation
Come on, that pun wasn't grounds for account deactivation, it was awl right ...
God. Please stop. I'm not kidding. I'm getting seriously pissy. Awl punch your lights out!
https://upjoke.com/awl-jokes
Thanks for this. The one I came up with was awl I could think of
Well, I'm awl-ways up for a good pun, but some of those were pretty awl-ful
Ouch
You're understating it.
Yes, it's good that CP is good with coming off the bench. But honestly, I've always thought this was an overblown ego thing. A basketball player's job is to play basketball as the coach directs. Starting or not does not tell me if you're good. It's in your job description. It's like if an architect at a residential firm takes umbrage at designing bathrooms. Get over yourself. Not to mention that many a bench guy has played as many or more minutes than a starter or two. It's not like the starters have an aura around them wherever they travel and will be admitted to Valhalla and bench guys not. I'm glad CP took it well but if he hadn't, he's not a real basketball player, he's a punk. So say I.
well we always knew CP was a punk (ie all that non-basketball garbage on the court), but maybe he’s really “an asshole?”
> I'm glad CP took it well but if he hadn't, he's not a real basketball player, he's a punk. So say I.
Damn, didn't realize you felt so strongly about Jordan Poole.
JP didn't like coming off the bench, and let everyone know it.
I do think minutes is different. If you tell Jokic "you have to play 4 minutes a game, Zeke Nnaji is gonna eat up your minutes," I think he would be right to ask a few questions. Like for example: "Who's Zeke Nnaji?"
https://theathletic.com/5010908/2023/10/30/chris-paul-bench-role-warriors/
Article about CP3 coming off the bench including a pre-camp meeting Kerr held with the starters and CP3 to make sure everyone was on the same page about winning being the main goal this season (a welcome change from last season).
Seems like Klay would be the most distraught about being benched. I think all of them have essentially been benched at some point except for him.
From the article, everyone talked about how important that meeting was for group unity, except Klay who said he barely remembered the meeting. Always on brand
He’s also the only one of the bunch in a contract year.
I don't know if they still do it, but they used to have a coaches' offsite in Napa in the offseason, for the coaches to work out their game plan for the next year.
It would have been very interesting to hear the discussions in those meetings around team chemistry (or our new word, 'connectivity').
Quotes from Wiggins and CP3 reinforcing that players don't like being benched for starting/closing moments, but that as long as you win they can accept it:
> “Loon was playing good,” Wiggins said. “Draymond was playing good. Klay was playing good. Everyone was playing good. Stuff happens. The coaches make a decision that’s best. We won the game. As long as we keep winning, I’m fine. I gotta give them a reason not to take me out. Rebound more. I can do more.”
> “Did I like it?” Paul said. “Who likes new things? It ain’t a matter of liking it. It’s new. I don’t hate it. It ain’t a matter of liking it. I like the fact that we won. That’s the most important thing.”
Also a quote about CP3 appreciating that the organization includes him in the dialogue about big decisions:
> An hour after the game, Paul spent several minutes discussing this drastic late-career rotational change with The Athletic. He agreed that the pre-camp meeting in Kerr’s office was crucial, generating the type of open dialogue Paul craves. If a decision is reasoned, shared and discussed, he is comfortable with the choice.
> “Yes,” Paul said. “Because it’s talking. We’re communicating. We ain’t just coming up to somebody day of and saying: ‘Hey, this is happening.'”
Kerr stays winning.
> “Did I like it?” Paul said. “Who likes new things? It ain’t a matter of liking it. It’s new. I don’t hate it. It ain’t a matter of liking it. I like the fact that we won. That’s the most important thing.”
Even going back to the "you coaching?" comment a friend's take has stuck with me. CP3 is here most likely just for this year, and probably wants to be a starter next year and get a starter's salary. So even if he's fine with it for this situation he's going to be a little bit bristly about it for the media just to keep showing the mentality that he sees himself as a starter.
Regarding the "you coaching?" comment, from the article (I think the last paragraph speaks to your point that mentally CP3 sees this as a one year thing and he'll be all in for this year before leaving just like with OKC):
> “It was over-exaggerated because I’ll tell you this: It wasn’t a question,” Paul said. “She made a statement. I know what the media is like. I know what I said in there. I know what bullet points gonna be taken from that.”
> Paul then wanted to give a little history lesson, beginning back in the summer of 2019 when the Houston Rockets flipped him for Russell Westbrook and the entire world assumed he was going to force a buyout and muscle his way to Los Angeles.
> “When I went to OKC, what’d everyone say? ‘He wants to be traded. He wants out of there,'” Paul said. “People always speaking for me. The very first meeting I had in OKC, did I tell you what happened? I stood up in front of my teammates and said, ‘Don’t pay attention to what the media says about me trying to get moved out of here. I don’t know how to be half in and half out. I’m here.'”
Unlike, say, former teammate El Señor Harden, who seems to have forgotten how NOT to be half in and half out. Props to CP3 for his commitment.
If they win a 'chip this year, he may not want to go back to starting for a loser team.
Maybe, but I bet he thinks coming here, learning how we do things and winning a championship would give him the right additional knowledge to apply it to another team
You mean like KD who so far has not won a ring since he left?
Maybe the lesson is, the team with 30 wins. Hard to apply to other teams.
But what if what he learns is that you have to be willing to sacrifice for the greater good, even if it means coming off the bench when you're good enough to start?
That's one potential lesson! I'm sure he could talk about that experience on the next team he leads to convince a very good player to come off the bench :)
Take your medicine and win a chip
Not so surprising, the two-way players haven't seen the floor. Looks like they will be spending a majority of their time in the G league as long as the main squad remains healthy.
I think this is true, but it's too early to have scheduled rest days.
In another couple of weeks, I think we'll start seeing the core 6 and maybe even Saric sit pretty regularly.
Was hoping for better separation in the third so that maybe we could see how TJD held his own against the giant Houston interior.
The team isn't a finished product by any means, It's great to rack up a win while getting to work through the bugs with an inspired but worse team than most.
I'd say it's better than even money Draymond doesn't play tonight because of that head knock.
I was pretty disappointed with the Warriors that he didn't get checked out immediately, before the free throw (they took a TO shortly afterward ... hopefully they checked him then).
I feel worse for the floor with that guy.
Although it was a hard knock, I was comfortable with it. The dubs trainers are the best.
When you hit your head, there are two main concerns. Was it hard enough to cause intracranial swelling or bleeding? - in which case you would need a CT scan within hours to see if a neurosurgeon needed to open up the skull to take some pressure off. Or could there be a concussion? - in which case the main thing is to not risk another head injury during the recovery time (which varies depending on all kinds of factors). In either case, Draymond would be displaying some combination of a headache, nausea, confusion, or lightheadedness. If Draymond was honest with his trainers, he could have been cleared in minutes - and risked little shooting free throws before coming off the floor.
My own impression (no more than that) is that competitive athletes tend to overestimate their ability to recover, and the decision to be evaluated, or keep playing, should not be in their hands at all for a potential concussion.
That may be changing a bit with the focus on concussions the last 5-10 years.
Wasn't it this year or last year an NFL player took himself into concussion protocol? If the NFL culture is changing, I'd bet it's happening in the NBA
Thought the same. Thought I heard his head hit the floor.
You did, cause I heard it too
And saw it
same sample size three point watch: curry 44.7% (17/38), gp2 44.4% (4/9), moody 41.7% (5/12), klay 40.0% (10/25), kuminga 33.3% (2/6), saric 30.0% (3/10), wiggins 11.1% (1/9), cp3 0% (0/11)
The end part of your list is hard to look at.
Regression to the mean is going to be pretty fun, though.
A positive way to view it is that the Paul-Saric combo is about +8 per 100 possessions despite 3/21 from 3. They'll definitely shoot a lot better then that over the course of the season.
Wow- that’s an amazing viewpoint. Let’s give the two of them a paltry 33% 3pt%, and they hit four additional 3’s for 12 points. on those four shots, let’s assume a SSS super generous 50% o-Reb percentage, and a 50% o-putback %, resulting in 2 possessions and one two point score. Assuming no decrease in opponent offense due to the three additional made shots, that would’ve netted at least +10 more, so +18 assuming merely poor shooting rather than atrocious.
I’ve been more excited anticipating the play of Chris Paul with the 2nd team of Saric, Kuminga, GP2, and Moody than I have of the ho-hum hall-of-famers 1st team. And tonight’s bench play showed why. The 1st team could chill and get inspired by 2nd team’s play. I hope coach Kerr will consider starting the 2nd team at some point in the season. It would mess up the other team’s psyche: should they also start their backups? Or stay with 1st string and let their bench take on Steph Curry’s crew? That would be off the hook fun! Hahaha.
I totally agree with your plot. But remember, out 2nd team is generally not playing the opponents' best players - at least some of whom are resting from their labors against our starters. Perhaps our 2nd team can be more effective than our 1st. Perhaps we'll see.
I’d give 2nd team some time to jell. With Chris Paul’s tutelage, that 2nd team can potential be the best bench in the NBA, and can can give a run for the money against some 1st teams!
It would be fun to watch them try.
Lol, the opposing coach will have to call a timeout after the first minute and replace his starters with the second unit!
I’m hoping they do because I’m betting our 2nd team is the best in the NBA!
My memory may be failing me, but it seems like teams are no longer just leaving Kuminga completely open and daring him to shoot. The scouting report seems to indicate that he'll hit those at high efficiency.
Next step for Kuminga, start hitting these much less open shots at an average efficiency (35%).
So far, I'd say his most immediate challenge is playing more disciplined across all three phases (if rebounding counts as a phase).
I'm not even really talking about the brain fart foul at the end of the quarter. He had two offensive fouls in the first half I believe (one for sure).
The one I can recall was an illegal screen trying to get Paul open and he was doing way too much on the screen (close to a pulling guard level of pushing). Paul was already wide open.
Moody had the brain fart foul at the end of the third, not JK
No, it was JK. He went for a steal and fouled Tate:
https://www.nba.com/stats/events?CFID=&CFPARAMS=&GameEventID=471&GameID=0022300096&Season=2023-24&flag=1&title=Kuminga%20P.FOUL%20(P4.PN)%20(K.Scott)
Or pass crisply, and even fancier, pass and set a quick pick.