126 Comments

Raptors style of defense backfires. Raptors feature grabbing shooters as a defensive style (that's in essence what got Klay Thompson injured). Watch the most recent game , and it is on display. Fouling Lee to prevent him from taking an off balance shot seemed like a reflex continuation of that strategy because the defender blatantly grabbed his arm prior to the shot. James Harden would have been awarded 3 FT's (Kyle Lowry probably as well). Good to see those who live by the sword die by the sword. Still wish Danny Green would have let Klay go ahead and dunk.

Expand full comment

Boucher just stuffed Kanter at the rim and is 3-4 from three. He's so good. A shame the Warriors let him go, but glad he's finally breaking out in the NBA given his absurd path.

Expand full comment

Also off topic: If the kings proposed Haliburton + Holmes for Wiseman right now, would you take it?

Expand full comment

No. I like both of their players but they don't impact the game enough for me to trade Wiseman, yet. Lamelo is a different story. Lamelo is a whole other level of player than Haliburton. I might consider Haliburton and Holmes for Green, though, and definitely for Oubre.

Expand full comment

Nope. Too early, the ceiling is too high, and I'm too emotionally invested in Wiseman. Our cards are good, I'd like to at least see the flop before I fold.

Expand full comment

fair enough!

Expand full comment

No

Expand full comment

#void, is that answer succinct enough? : ) Wiseman is gaining fans fast

Expand full comment

Hahaha yep! Looks like I'm the only one that would consider it... Of course when I posted this I was thinking Holmes was locked up for a couple years which isn't the case (what if they threw in a first rounder too?).

I was just thinking that Haliburton looks like he could be a star _now_ while Wiseman looks like he's on the Brandon Ingram track to stardom: 3 years of awkward mediocrity before fulfilling his potential. (yes I'm aware this is potentially a huge SSS overreaction, and I'm more than ready to eat my words).

While it would be awesome to finally have that elite 7 foot center we've never had (if you don't count Durant 😂) it seems like Haliburton's shooting/defense/playmaking is so much more "warriors". He would be a good stopgap at shooting guard, and then could transition into a hybrid Shaun/Iggy role. That coupled with the fact that he's good _now_ and Curry is 33 makes it an interesting thought experiment for me, but I guess I'm the only one!

Expand full comment

I mean, I get your reasons completely. I just think that Wiseman is already pretty damn special with the potential to be really, really damn special and seemingly a high likelihood of eventually reaching that potential.

Expand full comment

Somewhat off-topic: I think I caught a glimpse of Marquese on the bench during this game. Have we heard any updates on his health? Is he confirmed out for the whole season? (I mean, I guess we don't even know if the season will progress as expected. If there's another pause or more, he might have more time than expected to recover before it's officially over.)

Expand full comment

I heard Kerith on The Outsides say his surgery went well and he’ll be re-evaluated again in (I believe) March

Expand full comment

Selom Mawugbe was just drafted by the Santa Cruz Warriors. I assume that means he has a theoretical path to the big club. Anyone know more?

Expand full comment

Who is he? Is he a wing? Tell me more 😄

Expand full comment

I think Giannis signing long term has done wonders to Ender's peace of mind. Now he is our best long term solution at SF. I'm glad he's excelling at both ends of the floor. He has the length to play defense at least as good as KD. Offense is not as good as KD's but less isolation plays means it will mesh well with the team's ball movement when Klay comes back.

Expand full comment

Seems to me that I saw many iso plays that Wiggins or Kerr runs. He is excellent going to the basket and will learn to hide the ball better with more experience.

Expand full comment

Your eyes are correct. Wiggins is taking 2.6 ISOs per game (at an unsustainably good 1.42 PPP)... Curry is the only other warrior with at least 10 ISOs this season which accounts for 1.6 per game (1.00 PPP). KD was 3.7 ISOs per game in 2018-19 (1.06 PPP) and 2.5 ISOs per game in 2016-17 (1.05 PPP)... so while we are running fewer ISOs, it's not that much fewer and actually just about the same as KDs first year.

Side note: interestingly, Steph was more efficient in ISOs in two out of the three KD years. And Klay was actually more efficient in ISOs than KD in 2016-17. Not saying KD was a less dominant ISO player (because I have eyes)... just didn't expect that stat... Curry is probably just more selective about his ISOs.

Expand full comment

Interesting stats! I'd like to see more iso's. Paschall is another that can make a living on iso's.

Expand full comment

Yea, gut feeling is he's been pretty efficient this year. We'll have to wait until he has at least 10 ISOs before his stats show up.

Expand full comment

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2021/1/11/22224665/steph-curry-draymond-green-warriors

Nice read that shows how bad the starting lineup has been and how poor the fit is there with 3 non shooters and wiggins whos shot comes and goes...

Expand full comment

Weird that that article makes no mention of Paschall, despite talking about the bench mob.

Expand full comment

Yeah I read that earlier and thought it was a pretty lazily written article, actually. Seemed like Tjarks only saw some highlight clips and wrote an article about them.

Expand full comment

I was disappointed in that article as well. It had no meaty analysis or interesting insights, and its conclusion could barely be labeled as such. Not the usual interesting read I expect from the ringer

Expand full comment

OT but now that we have 10 games under our belt, where do you think this team actually fits in in the west? I think there are 4 teams we are clearly better than (kings, grizz, twolves, rockets) 4 teams that are clearly better than us (lakers, clippers, mavericks, blazers) and then a lot of questions marks in the 5-12 range. So where are we NOW and more importantly where do we end up?

Expand full comment

The teams in the West I think are scariest right now are the Lakers and, to my surprise, the Suns.

The Clippers *should* be up there, but they still feel a little disjointed or like their effort is inconsistent. They're probably better than the Warriors right now but not by that much?

And there's an enormous logjam in the West after that. The dark horse pack includes, in no particular order, the Jazz, Mavericks, Nuggets, Blazers, surprisingly the Warriors, and even (somehow) the Spurs, Thunder, and Pelicans. Then at the bottom of the conference you have the Kings, Rockets, Grizzlies, and T-Wolves... all of whom are still good enough to take games off the top teams without even factoring player availability into the equation. With injuries and coronavirus precautions in the picture, plus the play-in rules, the postseason picture is very unclear. That said, Houston is presumably still looking to trade Harden, which probably ends up with them getting worse this season, and I have lots of faith that the T-Wolves will continue to suck. I'm still not sure about Sac, Memphis, and Nawlins. And for a team that's been cobbled out of trade chaff and spare parts, OKC has been weirdly good. They beat the Nets on a night when Durant scored 36 points!

All that being the case, I think we have a really good chance to make the postseason but we're going to have to scrape together all the wins we can, even tough comeback wins against strong teams and nail-biters that come down to walk-off threes and last-second FTs.

Expand full comment

I do not believe the Blazers are better than the Warriors right now, much less clearly better, and it seems like the stats/standings bear that out.

Expand full comment

Not sure which stats/standings you are referring to.

Expand full comment

Agreed. The Suns, OTOH, I would put in that category. I’d also be tempted to elevate Utah into the elite circle, and to elevate Houston into the logjam in the middle of the West. Saying that, Harden seems checked out, so maybe it’s fair to relegate them after all

Expand full comment

If we are playing to our full potential I feel we are better then the blazers and the mavs (if porzingis isn't healthy)

Expand full comment
author

Keep your eyes peeled for this: it doesn't look like Boston will have enough players for their game on Wednesday either, but Silver is saying he's not going to pause the season.

> @TimBontemps

> In addition to postponing two games, the NBA says it will be meeting with the NBPA about modifying the league’s Health and Safety Protocols.

Expand full comment

Same problem arose in MLB this past season. They got through it, tightened up the protocols, and eventually got the makeup games played. Let's hope the NBA figures it out, too.

Expand full comment

I really hope this doesn't mean watering down the protocols so more games can be played.

Expand full comment

If anything, I think it's more likely they put in stricter requirements for negative test timings or something so that you don't get a situation like the Sixers the other night where Seth Curry was sitting on the bench with the game in progress when he found out he was positive.

Expand full comment
author

Season pause is "on the table".

Tough spot for a league that built their schedule knowing this was going to happen. Now they gotta answer that tricky question of "how many players getting Corona is ok, exactly?"

> @JDumasReports

> Source: NBA considering a 7 to 14 day pause amidst the growing rate of positive cases within the league. The NBA brass & GMs will meet virtually today or tomorrow to reconsider safety protocols. The league wants to avoid a pause but it is on the table.

Expand full comment

Not a bubble = not gonna work

Expand full comment

the players should hit herd immunity soon? what % have tested positive?

Expand full comment

Yea, when I saw the postponed game last night I was wondering if we were getting closer to a pause. They announced a G-League bubble... so I was wondering if they would consider one for the rest of the NBA season.

Expand full comment

Re: Wiggins' 4th quarter fall-off....lots of games, lots of effort, early season.

But he's 25 - he ought to get more endurance. He doesn't have the body type that will break down from running 3 miles in a game (unlike the pudgy Rockets' players). I've always believed Wiggins' failings were at least partly a result of the milieu of the Timberwolves versus that of the Warriors.

Expand full comment

Also, how does Curry only get 6 FTs tonight?

Expand full comment

He fell out of bounds after light contact. Turnover. Lowry falls out of bounds after light contact. Personal Foul-Warriors. Curry certainly could have forced drives into the lane to get calls, but the team was playing decent enough to build a 10-15 point lead. Plus the Raptors were mauling him and he was not getting the calls so Curry didn’t need to get himself going as long as the team was holding the lead. Well, until the fourth...

Expand full comment

Well maybe that Damion Lee call was the best make-up call ever.

Expand full comment

They weren't calling most contact, especially off-ball. He wasn't the only one getting mauled without a whistle, he just drew the most of it.

Expand full comment

He needs to push back a little harder and get a tech called on himself. Kerr, too. The refs let EVERYBODY play - the Raptors have some legit complaints, too. But playing the game of "they can't call fouls on every play" violates the spirit of the game and hurts the ones fouled most - Curry in this case.

Expand full comment
Jan 11, 2021Liked by punk basketball

One has to applaud Wiggins for his effort. His on ball defense is a 180 from his past.

But the role Kerr has chosen for Wiggins' is misguided. Wiggins is not a 40% arc shooter, whatever his start. He should be cutting constantly, even with no Klay.

Expand full comment

> Wiggins is not a 40% arc shooter

But, he is.

Expand full comment

But, he's not

Expand full comment
author

lol for the record: he has shot 33 or 34% from deep in each of his last 5 seasons.

His scoring efficiency is ranked in the 28th percentile for players at his position (that's not good).

But he is having a hell of a season!

Expand full comment

He's never played with talent like Curry and Green, before.

Expand full comment
Jan 11, 2021Liked by punk basketball

I don’t know how to look up stats on this, but I would think he’s getting better looks with the Warriors and having to force far fewer shots. Is 40% sustainable? Beats me, but I feel pretty confident he’ll finish with his best season yet on both 3’s and TS%.

Expand full comment

I think around his career high of 35-36% is more reasonable.

For determining quality of shots, the best dataset I can think of is via Player > Tracking > Shots Dashboard > Closest Defender on nba.com/stats. It's a lot of clicking around to get the full picture over the years, but two things stand out to me.

When you look at his percentages when Open or Wide Open from 3PT range over the course of his career, he has never shot over 38% and is usually somewhere between 35-37%. The only exception is this year where he's 52.9% when Wide Open. Last year was his best season for Wide Open threes at 38% so this year is a clear outlier. So even if he is getting more Wide Open shots, he's never shown to make more than 38% of them.

But hey, there's always caveats in these stats... maybe Wide Open in a Steph Curry system is way better than a traditional Wide Open *shrug*

Expand full comment

Thanks! Sounds like it might be more fluke than I thought.

Expand full comment
Jan 11, 2021Liked by punk basketball

He's actually at his 3rd lowest ts% of his career.

Expand full comment

Also, 4th lowest...not 3rd. And his current TS% is above his career number.

Expand full comment

Since starting 2-for-10 on 3’s in the first two games, he’s gone 18 for 42 (43%). Like I said, I think he’ll finish with his most efficient season.

Expand full comment
author

Some of that is possibly due to the team's desire to shoot more threes, but yeah, he's not having a great season as far as scoring accuracy goes... other areas though, he's been a monster so it's all working out.

I'll put a section on this in the preview for tomorrow, it's an interesting question about how much better his scoring opportunities have been here. My core concern is that it's just such a noisy number

Expand full comment
Jan 11, 2021Liked by punk basketball

I cringe everytime Wiggins takes a stepback 3, and his TS% is still pretty bad. Loving his defense though, which I never thought I'd ever say

Expand full comment

I think Wiggins is really playing within his range. When you have playmakers like Steph and Dray helping to set you up, and if you've got the skillset, you execute. He has been executing pretty reliably. OTOH, Oubre is not execting and no one can say his chances haven't been there. I'm still waiting for him to play off the bench and give the starters another point scorer like DLeeeeee. He doesn't have Oubre's athleticism, but his motor is as good as anyone's and his shot better than O's.

Expand full comment

Hard to cut with no space. I notice he drives much more when he's with the bench I'm assuming because of how much more spacing there is

Expand full comment

That raises the question. Execute the offense as needed now due to injuries, or develop comfort with offense that we should aspire to? Stepbacks and 10x3PA may be needed now with no Klay and Oubre struggling, but they are really not viable longterm strategies for Wiggins.

ps I meant cutting without the ball

Expand full comment
Jan 11, 2021Liked by punk basketball

Not a fan of these storylines where Steph struggles. Stick to the Steph World-Beater formula please!

Expand full comment
Jan 11, 2021Liked by Eric Apricot, punk basketball

https://streamable.com/gw7p8q

Notice here that Green had the free rebound and instead he tapped it to Wiseman. Looks like a vet who is taking care of his rookie and getting him a rebound in the box score to keep him feeling like he's involved and contributing. Of course, the rest of the play was pretty nice too lol.

And then notice that Draymond ultimately missed a triple double by one rebound. Great teammate.

Expand full comment

Draymond is great and next-level but I doubt he was thinking about counting stats in that moment. His brain is just working steps ahead of everyone else's and getting the ball quickly via tap, vs slowly via catching and then passing, is the kind of thing he does in his sleep. We're lucky to have him...

Expand full comment

No doubt we are. Yeah it's also possible he was just really tired and preferred Wiseman taking the ball up the court lol.

Expand full comment

Did you watch that play? Draymond was CLEARLY tipping that rebound to Wiseman.

Expand full comment

Dray also had some ugly passes to JW and others that couldn't be converted. But there is no doubt he has the best court vision of any player on the floor. It's too bad his offensive game is so limited. That is why we need the scoring from others. I like him jump starting JW and keeping Steph rewarded. Bad shooting game for Steph. Without his points, it will always be tough to win. We should have buried the Raptors.

Expand full comment

I noticed that play too... but the rebound got credited to Dray. I don't know the exact rule but I think a controlled tap to a teammate counts as a rebound even if you don't secure it.

Expand full comment

Those damn facts getting in the way of me mythologizing Draymond.

Expand full comment
Jan 11, 2021Liked by punk basketball

I’m pro Wiggins after tonight. I thought he made a few key plays at the end of that game to set the Warriors up to win. Might as well start that second unit and see what they can do.

Expand full comment

As bad as Oubres been on offense, it's awesome to finally have that defender that really bugs opposing players. He's always right on top of them and never lets out. His defense is as great to watch as his defense is as bad to watch lol

Expand full comment

Worth noting Oubre was 4-8 on twos. It's really the three point shot that is the problem. (Yes, he's missed some close in shots, but usually those are contested drives, and those are low percentage shots for almost anyone).

Also a problem is that he is the least comfortable in the Warriors offense right now. As a wing, he has higher expectations on him in terms of being in the right place at the right time and making the right read, and he's definitely struggling there. I can only reiterate that the guy is playing in a completely new system that requires new things of him and he hasn't had any time to acclimate. Wiggins has a lot of similarities to Oubre in that regard, and I couldn't be happier where he is after having a half season to adjust (albeit without Curry; but still running the offense and playing with Draymond). I remain optimistic Oubre will come around, but I would not be surprised if he finds his three point shot well before he starts looking comfortable in the offense and regularly doing the right thing.

Expand full comment

More like a quarter season; Wiggins has now played 22 games with the Warriors.

Expand full comment

Oubre’s looking down at the three point line before shooting. He’s not turning it around on threes until he fixes that.

Expand full comment

He didn't do that on the threes I saw him take this game. And he shot, what, 1/3?

Expand full comment

Oubre doesn't see the game like Wiggins does. Very different approaches and results. Wiggins using his head as well as skillset.

Expand full comment

Yup wiggins vision and iq has impressed me

Expand full comment