Had to listen to game via 3 'dudes' on YouTube. I thought I was listening to the Battle of Midway. An unprecedented victory against a vastly superior force.
You're behind on the latest naval scholarship; Midway was a battle of rough parity. See Shattered Sword by Tony Tully and Jon Parshall. But I get your point.
They’re now 2-1 v OKC this season, after going 1-3 v them last season. They had (impressively) reeled off 15 straight v the Rockets before losing to them last month, though most of those were against a much less good Rockets team than the one we’ve seen this season.
Those are “things” in the sense that they happened, but we’re not talking big enough samples to know if they’re really things in a predictive sense. Splits v individual teams (like home-road splits and lots of other splits) tend to be pretty random, especially given the variations in player availability, rest, etc. that occur in a typical regular season. Vegas lines don’t put a lot of stock in them relative to the overall quality of teams in question.
The 1-3 last season included two OT losses where the Warriors were up three at the end of regulation and a) gave up a lucky desperation three to Chet to tie the game and b) fouled Chet on a desperation three to give him free throws to tie the game. Steph hit a tough layup at the end of our one win and OKc won the last one pretty easily. So it was a very close 1-3.
True. Although (as you note) the wins have all been pretty close as well.
Point is your record against Team X in a 3-4 game sample (or even 6-8 games if we’re talking two seasons) isn’t necessarily a “thing” in terms of its predictive value.
Our close games v them this season and last could mean they’re an easier playoff matchup for us than another high-level team (say, DEN, LAC, DAL, BOS, CLE, NYK) … but it could also not mean that.
I think I may just have “small sample split PTSD” from talking myself blue in the face two years ago that our amazing home-road split didn’t necessarily mean we were an especially “great home team” or “bad road team” … and then having to argue the exact opposite the next season when our home-road split totally flipped the other way.
There may well be some factors at play beyond randomness, but it’s really hard to know how real/predictive any of them are; and as human beings who love order and narratives we *always* underrate the degree to which things are random.
I no longer worry about Wiggins missing bunny layups. I’m so happy. He’s become a good finisher, and I think the improved FT% is part of what’s giving him confidence to attack the rim so much more. It’s awesome to watch him now.
It will be very interesting if we make a little run here… which is doable with the upcoming stretch… PHX, ORL, @UTA, @LAL (likely without AD) until the trade deadline. Beat PHX, and we’ve got a 3 game winning streak… we could be in decent shape there! Emphasis on “could”… we could algo shit the bed and drop both PHX and ORL games in bad form.
I'll bet on OKC Nation HQ they're going, "Man, the hell with Looney always grifting fouls against us. Refs ALWAYS give that guy the whistle. I guess it's the rules but it's so ugly always having to watch him parade to the line."
I bet on Miami Nation HQ they’re going “Soooo, as we were saying, we’ll give you Butler for Wiggins and Podzwhatever and GP2 and a 2nd round dra- wait, hello? Are you still there?!”
Getting to the line first is so much more important. I see bad FT% as a quality problem. I also think the normal infrequency of our trips to the line contributes to a worse %. Attack, attack, attack. The % will follow in it's wake.
The difference tonight was the Dubs brought a deep team effort. So many contributors and strong hustle throughout. OKC was just watching two guys work on offense. Those two guys are f’ing excellent ballers but they can’t do it all themselves.
Kerr said it in the postgame, Hield draws the defense, even when he’s not hitting shots, and it makes the team flow. It will be very nice if he starts hitting shots again, but he is useful out there, even when he’s not making them.
More like three guys: SGA, JDub, and Joe. Everyone else on that team was putrid tonight. I think Thunder getting Chet back would really help, but he's not coming back until after the ASB.
Also, have a hard time considering OKC as the West favorites given SGA's reliance on FTs (something that always diminishes in the playoffs) and their iffy 3-point shooting. Big-time caveat is a healthy Chet gives them a whole different dimension. And the lack of a true challenger (Denver? Dallas? Don't believe in Houston or Memphis either...) makes them the obvious chalk pick.
On the Dunc'd On mock trade deadline they ended up acquiring both Coby White and Cam Johnson. All make-believe, of course, and I think they sent out both Joe and Wiggins in the deals, so the upgrade isn't quite as extreme as it might sound. But insofar as their remaining weaknesses are 3pt shooting and secondary creation, it was a somewhat chilling demonstration of the ease with which they could address those.
There’s plenty of good teams in the west. The Thunder are going to have to beat 3 good teams in 3 different match ups to get out of the West. They’re definitely the favorite, but I’d give them a 25-30% chance of getting through the West.
My biggest gripes if I were objectively analyzing their team, which of course I'm not that objective, is 1) Not really a three point shooting team. Middle of the pack. 2) Inexperience shows up sometimes. They looked a bit scattered and confused tonight against a much more veteran Warrior team.
It's so crazy, because like you I have thought for years that Westbrook is a liability, but Jokic has managed to finally make Russ play well. Now THAT'S deserving of an MVP. Russ has learned that if he uses his athleticism to cut to the basket, instead of just to dribble places and then shoot misses, Jokic will find him at the rim where he can't miss as easily.
Had to listen to game via 3 'dudes' on YouTube. I thought I was listening to the Battle of Midway. An unprecedented victory against a vastly superior force.
You're behind on the latest naval scholarship; Midway was a battle of rough parity. See Shattered Sword by Tony Tully and Jon Parshall. But I get your point.
I can't believe what I just watched.
Also, Mark Daigneault: It's not the fourteen-hundreds anymore—you're allowed a little more sideburn than that. Treat yourself.
Mattingly!! For the last time, get rid of those sideburns!!!!
It looks like the Dubs success vs OKC and Houston the last 2 years is really a thing as I mentioned a couple days ago.
Pretty amazing win minus JK and DG.
I agree that DG needs to reduce his role and minutes.
They’re now 2-1 v OKC this season, after going 1-3 v them last season. They had (impressively) reeled off 15 straight v the Rockets before losing to them last month, though most of those were against a much less good Rockets team than the one we’ve seen this season.
Those are “things” in the sense that they happened, but we’re not talking big enough samples to know if they’re really things in a predictive sense. Splits v individual teams (like home-road splits and lots of other splits) tend to be pretty random, especially given the variations in player availability, rest, etc. that occur in a typical regular season. Vegas lines don’t put a lot of stock in them relative to the overall quality of teams in question.
The 1-3 last season included two OT losses where the Warriors were up three at the end of regulation and a) gave up a lucky desperation three to Chet to tie the game and b) fouled Chet on a desperation three to give him free throws to tie the game. Steph hit a tough layup at the end of our one win and OKc won the last one pretty easily. So it was a very close 1-3.
True. Although (as you note) the wins have all been pretty close as well.
Point is your record against Team X in a 3-4 game sample (or even 6-8 games if we’re talking two seasons) isn’t necessarily a “thing” in terms of its predictive value.
I think it’s safe though to say “we play them well”
Maybe — safer to say “we’ve played them well.”
Our close games v them this season and last could mean they’re an easier playoff matchup for us than another high-level team (say, DEN, LAC, DAL, BOS, CLE, NYK) … but it could also not mean that.
I think I may just have “small sample split PTSD” from talking myself blue in the face two years ago that our amazing home-road split didn’t necessarily mean we were an especially “great home team” or “bad road team” … and then having to argue the exact opposite the next season when our home-road split totally flipped the other way.
There may well be some factors at play beyond randomness, but it’s really hard to know how real/predictive any of them are; and as human beings who love order and narratives we *always* underrate the degree to which things are random.
AND we gave up no points - or minutes - to Chet.
“Keep my Wigg’s name out of your f’ing mouth” (when discussing potential trade scenarios).
Looney and Payton, as well! They all passed the audition tonight.
Players on the Warriors who are not old or young…
Lindy 27
Spencer 28
Loon 28
Wiggs 29
Schröder 31
Anderson 31
Payton 32
Hield 32
No real point except that it’s generally good to have a lot of guys in that age range (say, 25-32).
Lindy at 27? Yikes.
Wemby went after Zubac after Zubac ran right into his back
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9f6RNwWIVIM
Isiah Stewart shoved Thomas Bryant to the ground and got ejected
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BiRPNjPNaV8
Jaden McDaniels is ejected for poking Booker in the head in the final seconds of the game
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hc3Uj3aGnPo
HOW SWEET IT IS
I no longer worry about Wiggins missing bunny layups. I’m so happy. He’s become a good finisher, and I think the improved FT% is part of what’s giving him confidence to attack the rim so much more. It’s awesome to watch him now.
Dubs only had two turnovers in a row in the closing 2-3 minutes—I said “there we go again”. But we didn’t!
Neither TO was of the egregiously boneheaded variety — a moving screen by GP and and a pass-and-crash by DS. But I agree, at the time I was dying.
Such a ticky-tack call on that moving screen with Dort creating 49% of the contact by just diving at GP2...
It will be very interesting if we make a little run here… which is doable with the upcoming stretch… PHX, ORL, @UTA, @LAL (likely without AD) until the trade deadline. Beat PHX, and we’ve got a 3 game winning streak… we could be in decent shape there! Emphasis on “could”… we could algo shit the bed and drop both PHX and ORL games in bad form.
So if I understand correctly, I should root for the former?
You've got to wake up pretty early in the afternoon to beat Goofus.
I'll bet on OKC Nation HQ they're going, "Man, the hell with Looney always grifting fouls against us. Refs ALWAYS give that guy the whistle. I guess it's the rules but it's so ugly always having to watch him parade to the line."
I bet on Miami Nation HQ they’re going “Soooo, as we were saying, we’ll give you Butler for Wiggins and Podzwhatever and GP2 and a 2nd round dra- wait, hello? Are you still there?!”
Ws are 48-59 from the stripe in the last two games (.814) which may be even more miraculous for the volume than for the efficiency.
Getting to the line first is so much more important. I see bad FT% as a quality problem. I also think the normal infrequency of our trips to the line contributes to a worse %. Attack, attack, attack. The % will follow in it's wake.
Both Looney's volume and efficiency tonight were mind-blowing...
Thunder fans are calling the Warriors dirty with Draymond memes added for effect. And they are in awe of SC30. True story.
Wemby wanted to fight Zubac tonight. It would have been like Gumby fighting He-Man.
Dahlsim vs. Zangief
Ha! Absolutely
Post with an, uhhh, bad stat line. 8 minutes, zeros across the board, but 2 TOs and 3PFs… yeah…
It's all about Team - Warriors are undefeated when Quinten starts.
…against the toughest schedule in the league!
This would be a great time for this team to go on a run
It's night time and cold. They can go on a run tomorrow when it's nice outside.
Builds character
vuc a tidy 6/10/2 on 3-9 shooting. 0-3 from three. He absolutely got cooked by Porzingis.
I'd certainly prefer if the Warriors did not make a trade with the Bulls
Yeah, stay away from that guy. He's 34, a defensive liability, and regressing hard to his mediocre career efficiency numbers.
#LoonBetter
The difference tonight was the Dubs brought a deep team effort. So many contributors and strong hustle throughout. OKC was just watching two guys work on offense. Those two guys are f’ing excellent ballers but they can’t do it all themselves.
Still surprised Lindy isn't getting a few minutes with Hield sucking so badly. I think he must be hurt.
Kerr said it in the postgame, Hield draws the defense, even when he’s not hitting shots, and it makes the team flow. It will be very nice if he starts hitting shots again, but he is useful out there, even when he’s not making them.
If he keeps clanking his shots, that gravity will dissipate.
Not for a year.
More like three guys: SGA, JDub, and Joe. Everyone else on that team was putrid tonight. I think Thunder getting Chet back would really help, but he's not coming back until after the ASB.
Yup. As Kerr put it in postgame - " Bounce in the step and that look in eye like they had during 12-3 run Iand and it has been mix5ing last month"
Also, have a hard time considering OKC as the West favorites given SGA's reliance on FTs (something that always diminishes in the playoffs) and their iffy 3-point shooting. Big-time caveat is a healthy Chet gives them a whole different dimension. And the lack of a true challenger (Denver? Dallas? Don't believe in Houston or Memphis either...) makes them the obvious chalk pick.
On the Dunc'd On mock trade deadline they ended up acquiring both Coby White and Cam Johnson. All make-believe, of course, and I think they sent out both Joe and Wiggins in the deals, so the upgrade isn't quite as extreme as it might sound. But insofar as their remaining weaknesses are 3pt shooting and secondary creation, it was a somewhat chilling demonstration of the ease with which they could address those.
OKC still has the best defense in the league. And when Chet returns, their offense will look better.
And their defense.
There’s plenty of good teams in the west. The Thunder are going to have to beat 3 good teams in 3 different match ups to get out of the West. They’re definitely the favorite, but I’d give them a 25-30% chance of getting through the West.
My biggest gripes if I were objectively analyzing their team, which of course I'm not that objective, is 1) Not really a three point shooting team. Middle of the pack. 2) Inexperience shows up sometimes. They looked a bit scattered and confused tonight against a much more veteran Warrior team.
Honestly, they looked absolutely great to me. They are missing Chet.
But, we basically won that game on a closing stretch where we just weren't missing anything. Sometimes the gods give you lemonade.
Their defense is really good though. They forced the Warriors into some crazy tough shots but the Dubs made them, sometimes that's how it goes.
Agreed. Those are the same shots the Dubs have consistently been missing during crunch time in several recent losses. Tonight they went in.
If everyone is healthy I have it as a three way race between the Thunder, Mavericks, and Clippers
Jokic says hi
Yeah but so did Westbrook. We'll see if Denver adds anything at the deadline to bolster their bench
It's so crazy, because like you I have thought for years that Westbrook is a liability, but Jokic has managed to finally make Russ play well. Now THAT'S deserving of an MVP. Russ has learned that if he uses his athleticism to cut to the basket, instead of just to dribble places and then shoot misses, Jokic will find him at the rim where he can't miss as easily.
> finally make Russ play well.
Heard it before, do it in the playoffs imo