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Nov 2, 2023Liked by Eric Apricot

Just to be clear, I am very very pro-PHO.

https://youtu.be/v25qpwMGqhs?si=JA8dpJIDVxW1Vy-4

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Yes, we've all been talking about how the "second team" is doing really well and how non-Steph minutes aren't a disaster this year.

But I would add that watching the second team play (including TJD and Podz, but especially TJD) is just flat out fun! Every single one of those guys does interesting, eye-engaging things nearly every play. Sometimes I watch Kuminga, or GP2, or Moody (or even CP3), then have to stop, back up and fixate on one of the other guys.

Instead of cringing with a group that has too many weaknesses and is dull, we get this. Warriors ball is great entertainment and this season it has gotten better.

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Fully agreed, they are playing super connected right now. Their defense is on a string most of the time! It's such a refreshing feeling and I can't get over it

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For sure, and they’re definitely giving us hope for life beyond the Big 3 as starters.

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There are glimmers of a very good/solid group post big 3 but we really havent found anyone that is a consistent multi-level scorer but those are usually hard to find. We had Poole but his defense and shot selection aiyaaa and then the whole clash. Both Moody and JK have shown flashes but it hasnt been anywhere near consistent but Moody as been moreso.

On the flipside - if we did find someone like that prior to the Big 3 ready to relinquish, we might encounter another Poole type situation where they want a bigger role. Will be a tight line to try and find someone at the right time. Too early and you have conflict of interest, too late and we suck for a while

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All three of BP, MM, and JK have shown flashes of 3-level scoring.

I'd argue that JK's closer than MM. JK's 3pt improvements pretty much cements 3-level scoring for him, actually. He's obvi shown the ability to finish at the rim, and over the last season and the preseason, he's flashed a consistently strong middie game. So, he's got to prove it on the 3pt line this season.

I get how it's easier to feel more confident in Moody's drive game than in JK's 3pt game, though.

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I think both MM and JK need to tighten up their handles as well before they can be relied on as 3-level scorers. That said, both are very much showing out and in the age range typical of rapid skill acquisition

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Uncle Roger is that you?

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Two timeline plan is alive and well, baby!!

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It's the Warrior multiverse. We've split off a third timeline...

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Like how we undo the "Thanos snap" for dead vet careers too.

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Heard a comment that the first game where they missed all those shots was the Dubs worst shooting game ever at Oracle. And they only lost by 4.

Be still my beating heart.

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Nov 2, 2023·edited Nov 2, 2023

*Chase* , I think. That's what Fitz said anyway ("in this building", I believe was how he worded it)

much smaller sample size.

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Pretty sure I watched some games at Oracle where they missed every shot the entire game. Or at least some games that felt like that

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When will the Warriors have a couple of days off so they can really practice how to handle gang-defense on Curry, and how to handle zone defense? They already seem better at it than a few days ago, but still get really clunky when the opponents get all defensive wizard on them. Gotta hope this is something that few other than Mike Brown can pull off.

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if it works, others will try and use it at key times when playing the DUBS - so yes, we do need some counters - sure hope that coach Kerr and group will figure out

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its already worked after two times with a week between. but m brown has more timing/insight than most others - even if you watch the tape as an opponent.

but yeah hope they figure out some better solutions - didnt feel good to watch that let alone for the players to feel that.

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After next Wednesday

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OT: Chris Paul’s Golden State swansong is pure box office. But will it work? https://www.theguardian.com/sport/blog/2023/nov/02/chris-paul-golden-state-warriors-dynasty-steph-curry

Nothing really here that hasn't been said on this board, but hey Dubs coverage

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Nov 2, 2023·edited Nov 2, 2023

https://twitter.com/WarriorsMuse/status/1720137049746165878

No SGA for tomorrow.

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We've caught some pretty decent luck in injuries in the early going. Phoenix without Beal, New Orleans without Ingram, Sacramento without Fox one of two. Helps to offset the tough schedule and Draymond ankle at the start.

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Opposite of last year, really. We'd catch guys who were back after a bunch of other teams got to miss them. Luck matters.

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yup def - lets hope its a sign that fate wants us to win another championship! :D

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Very true

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Excellent, I want to stack up wins as much as possible now in preparation for the inevitable Curry/Paul/Dray injuries.

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Yea he wasn't fully himself in last night's crazy back and forth game. Still very good, but clearly not able to deliver as much.

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Kings exposed the blueprint. Just rest your star player and catch the Warriors on short rest.

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I would love to create some distress in Kings fanland by mentioning this: Kings are better without Fox - just like the excellent narrative that was pushed the winning season that "Grizzlies better without Ja". As evidence - look at the first two games. Sac only lost by 1 without Fox in an away game, but lost by 8 with him at home :-) /s

And we could also add this: Fox wearing curry brand :-)

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PHO is delicious.

IYKYK

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Nov 2, 2023·edited Nov 2, 2023

Pho rings, as Klay likes to remind people.

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Nov 2, 2023Liked by Eric Apricot

:)

Dray always brings the Pho! Klay for the Huynh!

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and Steph is just TRANscendent!

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Nov 2, 2023·edited Nov 2, 2023

After realizing that I’ve been paying far too much attention to Kuminga/TJD, I decided to give Moody some love and run through his games this season. Firstly, off the bat, Moody is doing well on defense. In 20 out of the 30 Moody defensive plays I analyzed, Moody defended well at a 67% clip (a very solid rate for a POA perimeter defender). I look forward to seeing his continued improvement as he gets more consistent reps in the NBA since I think he has the length/focus/intelligence/discipline to be a very good defender in the NBA.

Offensively, the numbers speak for themselves with Moody averaging a health 8 ppg on 50% from the field and 37% from deep with a sterling 64 TS%. If Moody keeps up this pace, then he’ll have settled is into being an excellent role player for the Warriors quite nicely. With that being said, I don’t want Moody to JUST be a role player since the Warriors chances of winning the chip increase considerably if Moody begins to break out.

With that being said, imho, a good way to look at whether a high efficiency role player can effectively expand his volume while relatively maintaining his efficiency is to look at his shot diet (aka how he is generating his shots). If he’s getting his offense with very little creation, on-ball over off-ball (generating scoring off movement), than that leaves the role players offense hostage of the flow of the game. If the role player can’t/doesn’t generate any advantage on his own (the way Curry can on-ball with his dribbling or the way Klay does off-ball with his cutting off screens to create a spacing advantage), then its highly unlikely that he’ll be able to efficiently score at a higher volume.

After examining Moody’s shot diet, I learned that while 61% of his total shoot attempts were of the pure catch and shoot variety, 25% of his scoring was also made up of on-ball/off-ball creation which is not an insignificant amount. More importantly, Moody shot an excellent 57% on on/off-ball creation shots which potentially bodes well if he begins to try and up his volume/creation.

While all of these conclusions are provisional given the insanely small sample size (we’re talking 28 total shots), its definitely given me room for hope that Moody can expand his volume while maintaining efficiency as the his role expands throughout the season.

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Another great sign is that his stroke looks smooth and he's confident in it - opposite of Podz atm. JK looking more confident too but his shot seems more dicey from just pure eye observation

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He’s also absolutely lit up the g-league when there… which, I know, G-League… but demonstrates that he has a whole lot more in his bag than simply shooting 3s when open and it’s late in the clock. He’s also been super steady under the bright lights of the playoffs. I think Moses is going be just fine if/when asked to do more.

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Chris Paul has had a positive +/- in every game so far. (as has Kuminga)

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I love it.

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While Draymond had his say last night regarding last year's team chemistry, which I imagine most here have looked at, Klay was also asked and had a very different take. He said, (I'm paraphrasing): "We play basketball for a living. It's such a privilege to be able to do that. I never worry about chemistry. Winning solves all." As seen at the 4 minute mark here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K_bgme-2dZc

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Good chemistry should help a lot - but its only an aspect but likely more important in basketball where things are more interconnected. I thought some of the 70's Oakland A's teams had some major clashes but still did well, i'm fuzzy on the details of that. But baseball is a more isolated in terms of performance. Guessing if chemistry was bad in football you have a disaster as that has a lot more interdependence.

Klay also seems less affected by things as seen by his personality/responses whereas Dray is def emo lol

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Generic but not wrong.

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Yes, I loved Klay's take. As for Draymond, I hope he does not screw this season up - I did not like his overt frustration to Moody missing that Pass. Moody is a wise soul and so maybe can handle it - not sure about JoKu or even CP3

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Moody has said on multiple occasions (including fairly recently) that Draymond is "his vet" so I'm sure he is used to Dray's communication style by now. Some people respond better to a tougher style of mentorship. I know that was true for me as well.

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There is a major difference when this admonishing is done out in the open versus in the locker room - that has major impact on people around you as well. IMHO, yell at Moody in the locker room not on live TV!

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Mistakes should be corrected in real time. Especially in this scenario where the game came down to one possession.

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Eh I dunno, we see a lot of the league's vets yell at younger players in live games. The great LeBron is well known for it and our own CP3 does it as well. I don't think the younger players mind as much when the barking is A. coming from an experienced vet with championship pedigree and B. intended to improve them as a basketball player. I don't think Moody's mom wouldn't be praising Dray on social media if she felt he was being too rough on her son.

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True. I dont follow any social media so not sure whats going on there. However, given Draymond's very recent history of punching Poole, I think it is a bad look for the team in general. Again fine to admonish and advise, but do it away from all those TD&H sport-talker/writer who will make a bigger story out of this than it needs to be., especially when the DUBS lose a few games!

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I think the fact that Dray is willing to do it in public is a good thing. He wouldn’t have last year b/c of the punch.

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Klay such a fucking stoner hippie. Gotta love him.

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He is, and you do, but I don't think this comment is all that hippie. Seems like a normal human thing to say. We all have worked or lived with someone who says annoying things. Let's imagine for the sake of argument that Poole was walking around practice saying "Draymond you're old and bad. Klay you suck I should start over you." Etc. So what? An adult does not have to take provocations like that seriously. Let the guy say dumb shit, it's got nothing to do with me. Now, it's different if the coach is playing let's say Poole 40 minutes and Klay 2. But he wasn't. I think the whole "He isn't being a nice person I can't play with him" thing sounds very elementary school.

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Punch was wrong and Dray should have more self control but that's just how he is. Trading Poole punch or no punch was the right call though.

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Nov 2, 2023·edited Nov 2, 2023

The closest work related analogy I can think of are people who don't do the work or do it poorly but are front and center in taking credit. Those aren't fun work environments.

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Klay had plenty of issues with JP last year too. He’s just taking the hippie answer out now after the fact rather than getting into the mud where Dray likes it. And they all played with JP. That’s a straw man.

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Whether Klay is being inconsistent or not does not affect the validity of the argument.

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Ouroboros. What comes first? Chemistry or Winning?

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I think a team that hates each other off the court but is very talented could do a lot of winning, and if you give me a minute I can probably think of some examples.

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Bonds/Kent won a lot.

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That's who came to mind to me as well.

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But never a chip

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*shakes fist at Dusty Baker*

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Dray/KD were not exactly in love with each other either!

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Kobe/Shaq?

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Kobe or Jordan and ANYONE. Winners who really made things unpleasant, is my understanding.

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Dynasty Bulls?

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There ya go

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Klay probably thinks KD is still on the team.

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Nov 2, 2023Liked by Eric Apricot

I think yesterday's game was a reminder that while Moody and Kuminga are more consistent now than they were in year's past, they are still only 21 years old each and going to have clear ups and downs all season. All players do but for instance, this play goes down as a turnover on Curry but is Moody's fault:

https://www.nba.com/stats/events?CFID=&CFPARAMS=&GameEventID=241&GameID=0022300126&Season=2023-24&flag=1&title=Curry%20Bad%20Pass%20Turnover%20(P3.T6)

You can see that if Moody comes to get the ball then he has an easy pass to a wide open Looney to run a 3 on 2. Kerr called the timeout right after that play to talk to Moody about it. Hopefully it's something he recognizes the next time it happens.

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author

I agree Moody messed up the play. This looks like what I call a Zigzag PNR, a set play where that corner guy steps up to relay the pass to the roll man. I do question whether Steph should have thrown the pass though.

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Yah this is a big deal. Mm, JK, BP, TJD are all really fucking young. They are going to make mistakes and constantly learn and improve throughout the season. CP helps accelerate that. But man, they are all good enough to contribute meaningfully to winning while doing it - a clear distinction from last year’s crew. There is still a second timeline here - it’s just good enough to contribute immediately. But along with GP2, I could definitely see this crew growing into the next generation of the Dubs core over the next 3-5 years, allowing Steph, Klay, Dray to contribute meaningful minutes in a sustainable way as they age gracefully.

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Honestly TJD isn't that young lol

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not relatively but yeah you cant be when you spend 3-4 yrs in college like all our big 3 did but if he can have a long career like them of 10+ years its a phenomenal pick

but you see those 4 yrs and his dad/uncle influence have made him a lot more solid and get the intricacies quickly

cant imagine any high schools be running anything remotely as advanced as college let alone the pros

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Also the Dray turnover on the miscommunication where Moody backed up to the 3pt line when Dray expected him to cut. (If I am remembering correctly).

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On that Dray one, Moody even took a step to cut, but then changed his mind... there were so many of these simple mistakes in this game... Kings' defensive pressure really bothered the Warriors and took them off their composure & slowed their reads just enough to get players out of sync.

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did Dray chew out Moses on this miscommunication? i remember seeing Dray mouthing and even picking up his dropped mouthpiece...

cut MoMo some slack, he ballin’ (this i believe was right after the big block)!

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He did. It was crunch time of a hard fought game where there were a bunch of mistakes from everybody. I understand the frustration, I'm sure Moses did too, and given the improved chemistry, I'm sure they'll talk about it amicably in film session.

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Gotta give the DNHQ community full credit. So many of you were on the ‘Lively to the Warriors’ predraft regardless of the disappointment y'all felt with the Wiseman pick and the general feeling that young Centers take a long time to develop

@statmuse

Dereck Lively tonight:

7 PTS

13 REB (7 OREB)

6 AST

2 STL

The first rookie to reach these numbers or better in a game since Steve Francis in 2000.

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Yeah that Lively fantasy died fast for me in the weeks leading up to the draft when it became pretty clear he wasn't going to make it out of the lottery

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He just felt like a can't miss prospect tbh. Of course I've felt that way about guys who have missed before, but with Lively I think it comes down to, how many guys in NBA history were huge, mobile, and smart but still failed?

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James Wiseman (thus far)?

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I don't see how Wiseman could in any way be classified as a high BBIQ player, honestly

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Smart and high BBIQ aren’t necessarily the same.

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Okay but in the context of a basketball discussion about prospects and their basketball abilities, I think it should be pretty clear that I'm not talking about Wiseman's ability to speak multiple languages.

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Ok, but you still said “smart” 😁

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Willy Cauley Stein for sure.

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I guess by "smart" the proxy I was using for Lively was a positive AST/TO ratio, whereas WCS' career AST/TO ratio in college was .75.

But yeah, I think that younger me thought WCS would be good too lol.

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Nov 2, 2023·edited Nov 2, 2023

Games Friday (that's tomorrow in people time), Sunday, Monday, Wednesday.

There are going to be some tired puppies on the Warriors by Wednesday (and yes, I know the minutes are being well-managed).

Basically, we'll have completed 10% of the season in the first two weeks. yeesh.

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I guess it’s good to be going through this tough part of the calendar while everyone’s legs are fresh and no one is battling big injuries (knock on wood).

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Well, we have a similar death-ride that is even longer (20 days) at the end of the season, so we've got that to look forward to. :)

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very likely the team saw that and want to try and bank wins now and also hurry to develop younger guys to be able to play those later games

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This is a very important take

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Same as last week! I'll take the same result too... but the team is probably going to run out of gas by the Pistons game. If they get to 6-1 going into the Pistons game, I expect they'll rest some guys in that SEGABABA. No, sorry... not "rest"... Steph, Dray, and CP3 have been gutting out injuries and will have re-aggravated them in the Cavs game.

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Yah - even with the amazing depth, I fully expect to see minutes coming in from the yet to be signed 14th man as well as the 2-ways this road trip. This is why teams have 17/18-man rosters.

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I think TJD might be an important piece during this stretch.

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Nov 2, 2023·edited Nov 2, 2023

Both Podz and TJD, I bet. Both have taken the early lead as first to play when someone in the 10-man rotation is out. And I expect resting and “mild injuries” to happen this trip and give some of the over-30 crew at least one game off each. Last season, it would’ve Simple been the SEGABABA- let’s see how Steve manages it this season.

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https://twitter.com/DannyEmerman/status/1719944722033311862

Draymond Green: “Last year was horse shit. Hard to come to work. Not fun. This year, you see the joy on guys’ face when they come in the building…this is a group that likes being together.”

Poor DDV man. He had to catch us on a down year. :-(

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He spun that into a decent contract so nor too shabby for him

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I'll have to watch a Knicks game to see how it's going for him.

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Ok, maybe I'm being a bit clueless here but it seems to me the margin for error for the clock start when you have .2 seconds left seems very high. rules say "if the game clock has been stopped and the ball is put in play by a throw-in, the game clock and the 24-second clock shall be started when the ball is legally touched by any player on the court. The starting of the game clock and the 24-second clock will be under the control of the official timer."

In the video Monk touches the ball and the clock starts, but that is a tight window for a human reaction time to start a clock in that time. Human reaction itself is closer to .2 (https://arcca.com/blog/human-reaction-time-in-emergency-situations/) so timekeeper needs a head start. Do you have to be 16 to do this job:) Am I missing something here?

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Sports are imperfect

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sure, but is this really the way to go? Goofus points out that essentially the clock is meaningless with the Trent Tucker rule. I can understand that - there is no clock, you are given one touch with an inbounds. For me, even though it doesn't change anything practically, it does change the framing of how it is handled. it isn't about can you get a touch shot in within .2 it is can you get one in at all, one chance.

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Nov 2, 2023·edited Nov 2, 2023Liked by Eric Apricot

If I remember correctly, this is why the NBA forbids a normal shot in situations with less than 0.3s left on the shot clock. You can only do a tip-in, which mitigates any advantage the offense might get with a slow start to the clock.

It's apparently commonly called the Trent Tucker rule. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trent_Tucker_Rule#:~:text=The%20Trent%20Tucker%20Rule%20is,in%20game%20or%20shot%20clock.

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There's still the problem of a late start to the clock(s) and the one play that comes up in my head is the Derek Fisher turn-around against the Spurs with 0.4 seconds left. Still at the mercy of the clock operator (alhtough with replay maybe if it's egregious the refs can overrule?).

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Or an early start to the clock too... human response times are nowhere near good enough. We have the technology, especially for end of game inbounds type plays, we should be using freeze frames to determine duration.

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thanks, this is informative. I still am dubious that an official, on the court or off, can well react in time to start the clock when the ball is touched and leaving only .2 seconds for the ball to go in.

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If I understand correctly, the Trent Tucker rule basically makes the actual clock operation a moot point. It essentially means the ball can be touched (not secured) one time before needing to go through the hoop.

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I guess that is true. Then let's turn the clock off and say this is the deal - have to inbounds in time and then it is one touch.

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That’s pretty much what it is, but actually starting the clock gives you the excitement of red lights and buzzer, which makes it look more like the game winner it actually is.

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Hard to get a buzzer beater if you don't have a buzzer

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Nice! I'd never heard that before.

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Bob talked about it ad nauseous on the broadcast.

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Nov 2, 2023·edited Nov 2, 2023

I was muted, to save my sanity. When the games aren't going well, Fitz raises my blood pressure too much.

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I get the complaints about Bob, but have give him props for being better-informed about rules than any broadcaster I’ve heard.

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I actually think he's a fine play-by-play guy. He just gets on my nerves sometimes. It's as much about me as him, really.

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Or when they’re all going well, he says… Oh, watch out we just made 24 points in three minutes, better watch out what could go wrong from now on.

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