Interesting study of how chemistry improves in a second year together, as measured by large changes in points per shot.
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In particular, Alamar and Oliver studied shooting percentages on passes from teammates and concluded that there was a marked decline in both shot quality and shooting accuracy from those passes when players were interacting with new teammates. While the study focused solely on catch-and-shoot shots to simplify the analysis, the results were perhaps more staggering than you’d expect: Overall expected points from those shots are 5.5 percent higher by the start of the second season together and 11.7 percent higher by the end of it.
For high-volume passers like Dončić, the bigger results might not even be in his shooting stats but in everyone else’s.
The study noted that Chris Paul’s first season with the Phoenix Suns saw his teammates shoot an effective field-goal percentage of 46.6 in his first two months and 72.3 over the final 20 games. The Suns began the season 8-8 and eventually made the NBA Finals.
In another example that is perhaps more relevant to the current discussion, Alamar and Oliver also noted that Kyrie Irving shot dramatically worse on passes from Dončić in his first season with him — one that ended with Dallas in the draft lottery — than in the second one that ended with the Mavs as Western Conference champs.
It’s not hard to find other shards of evidence for this trend post-deadline. De’Aaron Fox, Jimmy Butler, Andrew Wiggins and D’Angelo Russell have all had fairly sharp post-trade declines in their shooting percentages. Going back further, the lack of chemistry in the first season of Damian Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo playing together in Milwaukee was palpable, as they hardly even ran pick-and-roll together; that partnership has become much more potent. Similarly, any semblance of the Dončić-LeBron James two-man game has been MIA since Dončić joined the Lakers.
If JK were available and Pat wasn't ejected... that might have gotten scary for HOU
Interesting study of how chemistry improves in a second year together, as measured by large changes in points per shot.
[[
In particular, Alamar and Oliver studied shooting percentages on passes from teammates and concluded that there was a marked decline in both shot quality and shooting accuracy from those passes when players were interacting with new teammates. While the study focused solely on catch-and-shoot shots to simplify the analysis, the results were perhaps more staggering than you’d expect: Overall expected points from those shots are 5.5 percent higher by the start of the second season together and 11.7 percent higher by the end of it.
For high-volume passers like Dončić, the bigger results might not even be in his shooting stats but in everyone else’s.
The study noted that Chris Paul’s first season with the Phoenix Suns saw his teammates shoot an effective field-goal percentage of 46.6 in his first two months and 72.3 over the final 20 games. The Suns began the season 8-8 and eventually made the NBA Finals.
In another example that is perhaps more relevant to the current discussion, Alamar and Oliver also noted that Kyrie Irving shot dramatically worse on passes from Dončić in his first season with him — one that ended with Dallas in the draft lottery — than in the second one that ended with the Mavs as Western Conference champs.
It’s not hard to find other shards of evidence for this trend post-deadline. De’Aaron Fox, Jimmy Butler, Andrew Wiggins and D’Angelo Russell have all had fairly sharp post-trade declines in their shooting percentages. Going back further, the lack of chemistry in the first season of Damian Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo playing together in Milwaukee was palpable, as they hardly even ran pick-and-roll together; that partnership has become much more potent. Similarly, any semblance of the Dončić-LeBron James two-man game has been MIA since Dončić joined the Lakers.
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