The Kuminga Konundrum: understanding the math of sign-&-trades and aprons | by GSWCBA

The facts and figures behind the unending saga

Perks is a well-known Warriors salary cap tracker and a moderator of the Warriors subreddit (r/warriors). He can be found at GSWCBA at Bluesky and of course here at DNHQ. - Eric Apricot

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Every time Jonathan Kuminga’s name hits the rumor mill, wether due to report of a new interested team in him or some sort of inconsequential non-update generated to feed the slop, a frenzy of Warriors fans pop up; throwing out different trade ideas (most of which usually don't work), raising logistical questions, and just a general plague of misinformation and misunderstanding spreads about the situation and what exactly the Warriors' optionality is with JK.

Obviously, the confusion and hysteria (while at times aggravating to myself) are completely understandable given the complexities of the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement, especially this current iteration of it, but it makes for quite a challenge when it comes to having accurate and in-depth discussions about the topic for the average fan.

Let’s change that.

While a lot of the information I will cover below has been touched on already by a variety of sources, including myself, this is my attempt to hopefully explain it in a more streamlined and digestible way (I do of course have a litany of footnotes at the bottom covering all the more minor clarities needed for full accuracy, for the sickos like myself who would like to indulge in such nonsense).

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Where the roster stands

Warriors Cap & Salary Spreadsheet

The Warriors currently have 9 players under contract for $171M.

They are required to roster at least 14 players on their standard 15-Man roster, so they will have to sign 5 more by the start of the season.¹

Through numerous (and frequently repeated) reports, we know that they already have verbal agreements in place with:

• Al Horford (for what is presumed to be the $5.7M Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception)

• De'Anthony Melton (for what is presumed to be the $2.3M minimum)

That brings them up to 11 players.

They still need 3 more players to meet the minimum roster requirement, including Kuminga, if he returns.

With those 11 players considered in the fold, the Warriors would sit at $17M below the First Apron and $28.9M below the Second Apron.

Because they're committing their TMLE to Horford, that transaction will hardcap them at the Second Apron, and they will not be allowed to surpass it under any circumstances. This means that with the remaining 3 spots they are required to fill, they will have to fit that into the $28.9M of apron space they have left.

A task which shouldn’t be too difficult in theory, as outside of Kuminga, they only really have minimum salaries as a means to fill out the roster.²

A one-year veteran minimum counts at $2.3M for apron purposes.³ However, if they use those final spots on their drafted rookies, Alex Toohey and/or Will Richard, their rookie minimums would only count at $1.3M each, nearly $1M less per player.⁴

Which means if they signed both of those rookies to the main roster for a combined $2.6M, they would have $26.3M left for that last spot. That's essentially the most the Warriors could give Kuminga in the first year of his deal, unless they made a trade to shed some more salary (like trading Buddy Hield and his $9.2M for a player making $5M).

This is part of why they haven’t yet made the Horford signing official. Theoretically, a cap space team like Brooklyn or one like the Jazz (who have significantly less but could create more space through trade) could then come in with an offer sheet the Warriors wouldn’t be able to match without them first having to make a move like the one I described above.⁵

But that’s more of a doomsday scenario than a realistic probability at this point, given what that interest and market seemingly have been around Kuminga.

Sign-and-trading Kuminga

Here's where things get tricky. As most of you know by now, Kuminga is subject to a rule known as Base Year Compensation⁶, which affects the way his salary is treated in sign-and-trades.

If Kuminga were to sign a contract for a rate of $25M per year, while his incoming salary in a S&T for his new team would count at its full value, his outgoing salary only counts at 50%. Which means in this case, with a $12.5M outgoing value, the most salary the Warriors would be allowed to take back in through salary matching is only $20.8M.⁷

But that's not all, when a team takes back more than 100% of the salary they send out, they get hard-capped at the First Apron, so in the case above, if the Warriors take back a $20M player, even though Kuminga's actual salary is $25M, because his outgoing salary is only half that and the Warriors receive more than they send out ($20M>$12.5M), they would be hardcapped at the first apron.⁸

Which means, if we go back to our scenario above, even with Richard and Toohey signed to the roster, if the Warriors don't retain Kuminga and trade him for a player in return, the most salary the Warriors can take back for him and still fit the roster under the first apron is $14.4M, that is if Kuminga signs for even a penny less than $28.8M.⁹

Now the Warriors can get creative here. They can tack on Buddy Hield ($9.2M), Moses Moody ($12M) or even sign-and-trade Gary Payton II (up to $11M so he doesn’t trigger BYC) to get that return value up higher, but it doesn't change how the math works and why it's so difficult to get a deal done while fitting the roster into the respective apron level for the Warriors and making the math work on the other side for their trade partner as well.

That's why we've seen offers such as Devin Carter ($4.9M) + Dario Šarić ($5.4M) or Royce O'Neale ($10.1M) + Nick Richards ($5M), with draft compensation attached to them, being floated out there.¹⁰ Another indication of where, even the teams interested in Kuminga, seem to value him as both an asset and a player.

Is a deal impossible? No.

I personally wouldn't oppose something involving a Coby White ($12.9M) from Chicago or even a Corey Kispert ($13.8M) from Washington, with varying levels of draft compensation attached either to or from the Warriors, if ultimately they decide to divorce from Kuminga.

But this is why it seems like the end result of this is a Kuminga return, on a deal less lucrative than the $25M, $30M, etc. numbers that have been thrown around.

So how does this end?

Ultimately, what it will come down to is what compromise the two sides can find.

The Warriors hold the majority of the leverage here and don’t have to budge on their offer since Kuminga is beholden to them as a restricted free agent and can’t simply sign a deal elsewhere, other than with an offer sheet, which seems out of the picture at this point.

However, he can try to force their hand with the threat of accepting his standing $8M qualifying offer. Doing so would give him a full no-trade clause for the season and allow him to enter unrestricted free agency the following year. But, that’s a very drastic move, that is not very advisable, and historically has not been profitable for players.

A notable example is Nerlens Noel, who in 2017 rejected a 4-year/$70M offer from the Mavericks as an RFA to sign his $4.1M qualifying offer. He would play 30 games that season after tearing a ligament in his thumb. His next contract was for the minimum salary. Over the rest of his career, he'd make $27M.

Even if we ignored history, outside of just the injury risk, there really isn’t an upside for him to turn down more money to have the freedom of choice next year. The amount of expected cap space teams is comparable to the amount there was this year, and it’s hard to see teams lining up to pay Kuminga after a year where he might even be on the outside looking in when it comes to the Warriors rotation, if he deteriorates the relationship even further.

While Kuminga might be feeling the sunk cost fallacy after balking on extension talks (reportedly close to $30M) last fall in search of a maximum deal, he will eventually have to come to terms with what his market and reality appear to be.

So what it will come down to is what yearly figure they can find between $8M-26.3M that both sides can stomach. Likely something short-term, 3 years with a player option tacked on, and some sweeteners in there like incentives or a trade kicker.

From there?

We monitor what the marriage between both parties looks like to start the season and then see what happens between January 15th, when Kuminga’s trade restriction lifts, and the February trade deadline.

Footnotes

1. Technically, the NBA allows teams to sit at as low as 12 players on their roster for a total of 28 days in a season (for two sets of two weeks at a time); so there is a little bit of wiggle room. We saw the Warriors utilize this during the 2023/24 season when they signed Gui Santos two weeks into the season to save a smidge on their roster cost ($698,120).

2. They do also have a ($8.8M) Traded Player Exception generated during the Jimmy Butler trade, however, courtesy of the new CBA, using a TPE generated from a previous season hardcaps a team at the 1st Apron, so it’s not as useful as it might seem.

3. The NBA subsidizes one-year veteran minimums. The minimum salary is scaled based on years of service in the league. Someone like De'Anthony Melton (with 7YOS) would be entitled to $3M on a minimum deal. That's $700k more than a player with 2YOS. So the NBA steps in and pays the difference to make sure teams don't discriminate against older players who cost more.

4. Similarly to the above, any free agent who signs a one-year minimum deal is counted at the 2 years of service level ($2.3M) for apron calculation purposes. The NBA does this so that hard-capped teams don't fill out the end of their roster with a bunch of rookie free agents who make $1M-less in order to skirt under the hard cap. However, this rule does not apply to players whom a team has drafted, which makes Toohey and Richard so valuable for roster-building purposes. When signed to their deals, they would count at their actual rookie min values, not the inflated figure.

5. Only teams with cap space are allowed to submit an offer sheet to a restricted free agent like Kuminga (non-cap space teams can only using their MLE). If the offer sheet is signed by the player, the original team has 48 hours to either match the offer or the player will leave to his new team on the terms of that deal. The Nets are the only team with significant enough cap space to pose a threat, but it’s not out of the question that another team could trade to create some by trading away salaries (likely to the Nets).

6. A remnant of an older version of the CBA introduced so teams don't sign their free agents to inflated deals for the sole purpose of using them as tradeable salary. It applies to any free agent who receives a raise greater than 120% of their previous salary (among a couple of other smaller stipulations).

7. A common misconception I've seen is that Warriors can only take back 100% of what they send out. This is not the case, that 50% of outgoing salary is still subject to standard salary matching rules ($0M-$8.3M outgoing = 200%+$250k, $8.3M-$29M outgoing = 100%+$8.3M, $29M+ outgoing = 125%+$250k).

8. Technically, they’re allowed to take back 100%+$250k without being hardcapped. Small cushion to make trades more feasible.

9. If Kuminga were to sign for his $38.7M maximum salary, the Warriors could take back 100% of 50% of that or $19.4M and not be subject to the first apron.

10. This is where you might say, “wait a minute, O’Neale+Richards is $15.1M, which is more than your $14.4M figure, how does that work?” That’s because it’s a 2-for-1 deal so Richards would be occupying one of the Toohey/Richard $1.3M spots amongst their 14 players so it would still fit into the $15.8M space they have for those two slots below the first apron.