Perks on the Important Warriors Off-Season Questions

Perks from GSW Reddit

Apricot says: Perks from GSW Reddit has kindly returned to help us sort out the off-season. Parts originally appeared on Reddit. Perks can be found on Twitter as @gswcba. If you like all the details, don’t miss his detailed cap spreadsheet that’s regularly updated.

---

Warriors Current 2022-23 Roster

• Patrick Baldwin Jr. is an un-signed first-round pick (Expected 120% Rookie Scale listed)

• Ryan Rollins is an un-signed second-round pick

• Lester Quiñones is an un-signed undrafted free agent

• Quinndary Weatherspoon is a restricted free agent with a qualifying offer tendered

Warriors Current 2022-23 Depth Chart

Warriors Unsigned Draft Picks

Warriors 2022 Unrestricted Free Agents

Warriors 2022 Restricted Free Agents

• Qualifying Offer Deadline is Today: 6/29

• Quinndary Weatherspoon and Nico Mannion have been both tendered

Salary/Cap Information

Warriors 2022/23 Salary: $171,078,212

Warriors 2022/23 Guaranteed Salary: $171,078,212

Warriors 2022/23 Total Cap Holds: $22,224,007

Projected 2022/23 NBA Salary Cap Figure: $123,600,000

Projected 2022/23 NBA Luxury Tax Threshold: $150,600,000

Bird Rights

Non-Bird

• Players who have played one season with a team and completed their contract before becoming a free agent.

• Allows team to re-sign players to 120% of their previous salary or 120% of the minimum salary, whichever is greater.

• Max 5% Raises

• 1-4 Years Contract Length

Early Bird

• Players who have played 2 seasons with the same team and completed their contract before becoming a free agent.

• Allows team to re-sign players to 175% of their previous salary or 105% of the average salary in the previous season, whichever is greater.

• Max 8% Raises

• 2-4 Years Contract Length

Bird

• Players who have played at least 3 seasons with the same team and completed their contract before becoming a free agent.

• Allows team to re-sign players up to their maximum salary.

• Max 8% Raises

• 1-5 Years Contract Length

Max Contracts

• Kevon Looney is eligible for a 30% Max Contract

Mid-Level Exceptions

• The Warriors are far above the Apron and therefore will have the Taxpayer Mid-Level available.

---

Important Off-Season Questions

Kevon Looney's Free Agency

The first big domino to fall this summer will be the fate of Kevon Looney. He is the Warriors’ top priority and their brass will be meeting with Looney's representatives right at the start of free agency to sort out his contract situation. Looney has expressed his desire to remain with the Warriors, but he has also clarified that he understands it's a business and the understanding is that he will only remain if offered a fair contract that reflects his market valuation. Reporting suggests that "there is growing pessimism" around the league about the possibility of prying Looney away from the Warriors, but a number of teams including the Charlotte Hornets and Sacramento Kings are said to be monitoring his situation. Neither of those teams projects to have cap space and considering how little cap space there is around the league, the most competitive offer the Warriors will most likely have to deal with is the Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception (projected at $10.5M). Given that the Warriors hold full bird rights on Looney and can offer him anything up to his maximum salary ($37.08M), it's impossible for them to bid outbid from a logistical standpoint. However, with the exorbitant tax cost of any additional salary they add to the current roster (5.25x multiplier and increasing) there is definitely a limit to what Lacob and co. will be willing to spend. That being said, given Looney's value to the Warriors and expected market, it’s highly likely he will stay a Warrior moving forward, and reporting from this morning suggests we are heading towards that path with the Warriors expecting to retain him on a multi-year deal starting at $10M.

Gary Payton II's Free Agency

The Warriors’ second most important task will be retaining Gary Payton II in free agency. As of now, they are "considered to be the favorites to retain Payton II’s services", but he is "expected to command interest on the open market" and the Mavericks are among his "most serious suitors". As is the case with Looney, Payton II's market will most likely not be as robust as some fans may think. There are very limited teams with cap space (most of which are non-playoff rebuilding teams that won't be enticing landing spots for elite role players). The Warriors' biggest competition for his services should come from other playoff teams, most of which have the Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception (projected at $6.5M) to offer. The Warriors hold Payton II's early bird rights which allow them to offer him a starting salary up to approximately $10.9M on a 2-4 year deal, so in all likelihood, Payton II should find his way back to the Warriors on a multiyear deal, probably somewhere in the $6-8M range.

Otto Porter Jr.'s Free Agency

Porter Jr. is the last of the Warriors' three biggest free agents and the least likely of them to return. Although the Warriors do intend to pursue a reunion with him, they're quite limited in what they can offer, and even if they're not completely outbid, given the financial constraints, it seems unlikely that they retain all three of Looney, Payton II, and Porter Jr. making him the odd man. The Warriors hold Non-Bird rights on Porter Jr. which allow them to give him a 120% raise on his minimum salary ($3.2M), but they also have the Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception (projected at $6.5M) available they could use to re-sign him. Porter Jr. already turned down MLE offers last summer and given that he was able to stay healthy for the most part of this season (although the Warriors very carefully managed that in order for it to happen) he is once again expected to see some TPMLE offers from contending teams looking to acquire his services. Whether or not he's back as a Warrior however will both largely depend on his market and even more so on if Looney and GP2 are both back. If either of those two aren't retained, that opens up the possibility that the Warriors are willing to spring the cost of using the MLE, whether on Porter Jr. or some other intriguing FA.

Jordan Poole's Extension

Something to monitor on the backend of the off-season, will be whether or not the Warriors can agree on an extension with Jordan Poole. Poole has one year left on his rookie-scale contract and will become a restricted free agent next off-season. The Warriors will have until the start of the 2022-23 season to try to come to terms on an extension in lieu of Poole entering restricted free agency. Whether or not they come to an agreement will be determined by if both parties can find a suitable figure. Poole's representation will likely be pushing towards a max contract, however, at that point the Warriors would likely let him play out the season and try to earn that sort of deal in restricted free agency where they could simply just match it. Therefore if an extension happens it should be somewhere significantly below that. Something within the $22.5M-$25M range seems like a sensible spot for both parties. In Poole's case, it would probably be better to lock up guaranteed money this off-season than to try to earn a larger contract in restricted free agency. The threat of suffering a serious injury always looms and we've seen a number of cases of players betting on themselves in that regard backfiring on them (ex: Nerlens Noel, Victor Oladipo). From the Warriors' standpoint, locking in Poole now would save them from potentially having to match a maximum deal from some desperate (Knicks-type) teams in 2023 free agency. In all likelihood, this should get ironed out before the start of next season.

Andrew Wiggins' Extension

To me, this is probably one of the more interesting topics, especially given how more and more I feel like I'm starting to find myself in the minority of my viewpoint on it. I don't think Wiggins gets an extension from the Warriors.

Don't get me wrong, Wiggins has been amazing for the Warriors and it would be great to have him locked up long-term, but it's just such an exorbitant cost I can't see, even Lacob, being willing to foot a $500M+ roster bill to make it happen. I've maintained since the beginning of the season that from my perspective as an outside observer the most likely scenario is that Wiggins will walk in 2023 free agency. However, luckily for us, many in the know don't seem to think that is the case. There's reporting that the Warriors will in fact discuss an extension with Wiggins this summer and members of the Warriors org themselves have expressed sentiments pertaining to the desire of retaining Wiggins including Bob Myers who said in regards to an extension:

“Those guys [Wiggins and Poole] are not unrestricted free agents, So we don’t need to do that on July 1, 2, 3, 4. We’re a long way from figuring out what Andrew wants and what his agent wants, but I do know what we want. We want to keep him and we’re going to make every effort to keep both those guys.”

Going into the details, the Warriors hold bird rights on Wiggins so they can sign him to anything up to his max, although any sort of extension should fall significantly short of that. Looking at a potential pay cut, Wiggins can take up to an 8% decrease in the subsequent salary of his extension as well, although with his play he might not be keen to do so. So it will be interesting to see if the Warriors can come to an agreement on an extension (there's no deadline for that by the way since Wiggins is on the last year of his deal, they can agree to an extension until the very last day before he becomes a free agent which would be 6/30/23).

Although let's say I'm overtly pessimistic on Wiggin's future with the Warriors, my best guess would be even if they are seriously considering bringing him back it's most likely going to happen in free agency where there are fewer restrictions on their options with him than with any sort of extension before then.

Ryan Rollins's Contract

A more minor thing to monitor will be what the Warriors do with Rollins roster-wise. Early on the noise has been that he will be placed on the 15-man roster which would make sense since his rookie minimum (and the tax on it) would cost the Warriors significant less than having a veteran minimum in his place (part of why buying that pick for $2M was actually opposite of an expensive move as most seemed to think). The other part of that will be if the Warriors will dip into their mid-level exception in order to give Rollins a longer deal. Unlike first-round picks, second-round picks don't have any sort of rookie scale and have to be signed with cap space or an available exception. Generally, early second-round picks get the rookie minimum, but minimum deals can only be up to two years in length, so what teams do is sign the players to the same salary but through the MLE in order to be able to give them a longer deal (in the Warriors case that can be up to three years instead of two). Given that it's unlikely the Warriors will use any of the MLE this off-season again to get a free agent given the exorbitant cost, it would be sensible to at least use a portion on Rollins to get a longer deal for him.

Andre Iguodala's Future

It's still unclear at this point whether Iguodala is going to continue his playing career, but the signs seem to point to him hanging it up this off-season. While Iguodala's mentorship and guidance as a veteran are invaluable, his body can't keep up with him anymore and it's probably better for him to go out on a high ending his illustrious carrier with another championship victory. If for whatever reason he does decide to change course, the Warriors would definitely welcome him back with open arms on a veteran minimum deal in a Udonis Haslem-type non-playing, pseudo-assistant coach role.

Nemanja Bjelica

The Warriors do intend to pursue a reunion with Bjelica and reporting suggests Bjelica should be available for the veteran minimum. While Bjelica did have quite an up-and-down season, he definitely had his moments, especially during stints in the playoffs. He's not perfect by any means, but bringing him back on another minimum deal as a third big behind presumably Looney and Wiseman, where he could supplement them with floor-spacing and playmaking would be a sensible option.

Damion Lee

Lee has grinded his way up from the G League and two-way contracts and has earned the respect of both his teammates and coaches as the ultimate stay-ready reserve. While he's had his fair share of the good and bad moments as a Warrior and has struggled to find consistency at times, as someone who knows his role and fits their playstyle and ethos, the Warriors could do a lot worse than having someone like him at the end of the roster on a minimum deal. While it seems the Warriors would welcome him back at that price, his place on the roster next season will depend on how many other of their free agents the Warriors can retain and if they can't find a veteran they like more in free agency for the same price otherwise.

Juan Toscano-Anderson

Similar to Lee, Oakland's own Toscano-Anderson is another player who has grinded his way up from Santa Cruz to the respect and admiration of his peers. Toscano-Anderson isn't perfect, but he knows his role and always gives 110% effort. While it's very unlikely from my point of view that the Warriors will extend him a qualifying offer for him given the financial cost, despite reporting that seems to suggest otherwise; given their interest in him, I do believe he would be welcomed back on a minimum deal, same as Lee, if the opportunity and roster space presented itself for it. Update: Qualifying offer not extended.

Quinndary Weatherspoon

Weatherspoon had a great first year with the Warriors. He started off in Santa Cruz where he impressed enough to earn a Hardship 10-Day deal which he would then parlay into a two-way contract for the rest of the season. Weatherspoon has looked like he belonged every time he has stepped onto a court for either Warriors team. He has one more season of two-way eligibility left and the Warriors have already extended him a qualifying offer to make him a restricted free agent. As of now, he is the favorite for the second two-way contract opposite Lester Quiñones. However, it will be interesting to see if Weatherspoon can't nudge his way onto the 15-man roster (although it may be dependent on whether or not the Warriors are able to retain Payton II who occupies a similar role). He's already spent his first three years in the league on two-way deals so maybe he's not super keen to do it for the fourth time.

Chris Chiozza

It's pretty much a given that the Warriors will not extend a qualifying offer to Chiozza in order to make him a restricted free agent and it's highly unlikely he finds his back to the Warriors next season. He was sensible as emergency point guard depth on a two-way deal last season, but he's out of two-way eligibility and did little to prove he deserves a deal on the 15-man roster. Unless he snags onto another NBA team's training camp roster, we will most likely see him overseas (probably in Italy where he almost signed last year). Update: Qualifying offer not extended.

Lester Quiñones

The Warriors inked Quiñones to a two-way deal right after the draft during the undrafted free agent frenzy showing how much they were interested in him. Quiñones was the only prospect to have two publically reported workouts with the Warriors and he clearly impressed him. While two-way contracts are quite fluid, making them pretty easy to tinker with, it's quite likely that Quiñones should have a solidified spot at the very least through training camp. But you never know, maybe some player really impressed and outplays him in Summer League which could have the Warriors change course.

Gui Santos

Santos was a last-minute pick for the Warriors after they were unable to trade away that late second-rounder during the draft. He's under contract with his current club Minas until 2024 and because of that and a variety of other reasons, he has virtually very little chance of being on the Warriors roster, even as a two-way. It's pretty much a certainty that he will be a draft-and-stash, but the question will be if he will return to Brazil or find his way to Santa Cruz. It's possible Santos might be able to work out something with Minas in order to free himself of his obligation to them in order to suit up for Santa Cruz as he has expressed interest in staying within the Warriors system during the post-draft interview cycle which would be motivation for that.

Justinian Jessup

Much like Santos, Jessup was a player contract overseas the Warriors picked last-minute after being unable to trade away a late second-rounder. He will be with the Warriors in Summer League once again. He built on a solid rookie season in the NBL with incremental improvement in his second year and has worked on his body a significant amount. While Jessup's chances of making the Warriors roster took a huge blow with the Quiñones signing (and Weatherspoon likely taking the other spot) now that Jessup is no longer under contract in Australia, it frees up some possibilities for him to potentially make his way to Santa Cruz (although the significantly less salary he would see in the G League might be a deterrent for him).

Nico Mannion

Long forgotten Mannion just finished a tough first year overseas in Italy. He battled through multiple injuries and ailments (intestinal infection, back injury, covid) and was never able to find a rhythm. The Warriors extended a two-way qualifying offer to him in order to retain his rights this morning however he still has one year deal left on his contract with Virtus Bologna and although his status for next season is a bit up in the air with them, it's unlikely we're to see him suit up for the Warriors at any point this upcoming season.