186 Comments
Jun 25·edited Jun 25Liked by Perks (GSWCBA)

Amazing article & thorough breakdown of every single aspect of the off-season!!🔥🔥

I also really liked the layout of the three potential “off-season directions”.

Route #1: (getting PG is a lot of the hype and fan convo at moment, myself included) most exciting and interesting, also more difficult path to make that trade.

Route #2: Has a couple really interesting names. BI is high on my wish list, pretty much on par with PG. Ingram just had a subpar playoffs but I still feel he is extremely talented scorer. And prime age. & with that rough ending in NO plus a looming (max?) ext, it might not break bank in assets to acquire him. The future financials of Warriors if they did get him would be a big consideration. If they’re paying Steph BI Dray, can they still afford any to all of Wiggs, Klay/JK/Moody exts? Is there even clear defined roles for any/all?

Also, Dejounte is interesting option in a trade.

Route #3: What is the benefit to “resetting” the tax now? Versus waiting a couple more seasons of staying above tax (+ in repeater) but under 2nd apron and trying to put best possible roster out there? It would take two seasons to get out of repeater. Resetting tax and trying to compete seem contradictory to me.

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> . If they’re paying Steph BI Dray, can they still afford any to all of Wiggs, Klay/JK/Moody exts? Is there even clear defined roles for any/all?

Well they would be likely acquiring BI through Wiggs deal, so depending on how much higher his next deal looks than Wiggs is, they have similar constraints.

> Resetting tax and trying to compete seem contradictory to me.

Oh absolutely, which is one of the reasons it's so interesting that Lacob brought it up in the first place as their Plan 1A. You'd think they'd be doing everything to compete with Steph right now.

There isn't any real benefit other than saving money and potentially setting themselves up to be able to be deeper in the tax moving forward, but they're going to be doing that with a roster without Steph? I don't get it.

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Jun 26·edited Jun 26Liked by Perks (GSWCBA)

Thanks for the reply! Keep up the great work! I enjoy learning stuff about the cap & the Warriors on this site and your Twitter.

Off-season NBA buzz is now really starting to heat up!

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OT question for people who know more about the draft: Why isn't there more excitement about Reed Sheppard? Is it just his dorky looks? A PG who shot 54/52/83 and won't get killed on defense seems like a really, really good prospect on paper.

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Jun 25·edited Jun 25

There's questions about whether he can create off the bounce as a PG. Also, while he had incredible steal and block numbers he's still pretty small and got taken off the dribble one on one. So it's not like he'll be a plus defender. Kind of like Tyrese Haliburton, some people thought he would be a good defender based on his steals, but his very skinny frame has made him a target to this point.

That said, I disagree with the premise a bit, I think there's a lot of enthusiasm for him. At least through the draft pods and lists I've seen he's the most consistently liked top prospect. Everyone expects his shooting to translate. He's so smart as a connective passer and team defender that there's confidence he can develop into a legit high end lead guard. He'd be a great fit on that Rockets team or for the Spurs.

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Yeah, that's fair. He's going to be a top 5 pick, so clearly there's some excitement. I guess I was just surprised, after a year of hearing how bad this class was, to see such an intriguing prospect in plain sight (and not even in contention to go #1).

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I think it's mainly the position he plays. He's a small guard and can't really play with other small guards. The Hawks have two of those already and even if they plan to trade them, do you love Sheppard so much where you're committing to him as your PG of the future?

Whereas I would bet that some teams may like him the most for what he is as a pure prospect, but stongly prefer the archetypes what Risacher or Sarr can be. A big great shooting 3 and D wing fits anywhere. A super versatile defensive PF/C with some ball-handling skill who might shoot fits anywhere (if he works out).

Which is why for the Rockets at 3 or Spurs at 4 I think a good chance he gets drafted there. They have some key building blocks and because of his game it's easy to see how Sheppard is a great complimentary piece around them. All the athleticism and wings for the Rockets. Just as an awesome spacing piece for Wemby for the Spurs.

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I'm in on Sheppard

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The shooting is amazing, but here's the negatives in a thumbnail from Slater on Light Years:

"I mean the fact that like Reed Sheppard might go like #3... This guy's like a 6-2, like came off

the bench at Kentucky..."

https://www.youtube.com/live/dTbJnPhwWi8?si=9fqdarhzzV9N6uKj&t=2022

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Slater must think 6'2 is too tall given his preference for the Warriors to select Davion Mitchell in 2021.

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Jun 25·edited Jun 25

Getting a veteran impact player almost certainly would require moving Jonathan Kuminga, who projects to have the highest upside of Golden State’s under-25 players. The Warriors have exhibited no desire to part with Kuminga, and their same intent has been applied to Moses Moody, Brandin Podziemski and Trayce Jackson-Davis.

https://x.com/TheDunkCentral/status/1805463236810068059

https://www.nbcsportsbayarea.com/nba/golden-state-warriors/trade-rumors-jonathan-kuminga-mike-dunleavy/1747894/

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It makes sense that the team is not interested in moving JK and the others that you mentioned. Each plays a different position of need for the Warriors and all have shown they can play. Unless a team approaches them with frankincense and myrrh, no miracles will be happening involving them. Perhaps even more poignant is that there is no one the Warriors value more at this point that are available. It would seem to me that any trades that take place would involve Klay and/or Wiggs, and of course whatever they decide on CP3.

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List of unrestricted center free agents: https://www.spotrac.com/nba/free-agents/_/year/2024/status/available/position/c/sort/contract_value

Jonas Valanciunas

Nic Claxton

Isaiah Hartenstein

Daniel Theis

Mason Plumlee

Andre Drummond

Tristan Thompson

JaVale McGee

Cody Zeller

Alex Len

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Jun 25·edited Jun 25

I like Nic Claxton but I don't see the Warriors going after any of these guys. Should they?

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They should go after Hartenstein but he's pretty clearly out of their price range at this point, my suspicion is that OKC will look to add him

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Plenty of big guys in the draft if that is the direction they want to go. TJD, Looney. and Draymond are probably enough, but I'd like to see a big rim protector added.

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Jun 25Liked by Perks (GSWCBA)

A ~7mm/yr extension for Moody would be an insane bargain. He's a 22 yr old who is already a league average wing and could grow into a KCP-type or better.

I'm going to be sad if he gets traded or spends another season on the fringes of the rotation.

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I don't see Moody or Kuminga going anywhere unless something presents itself to the Warriors that they just can't refuse. Would a top 10 draft pick for Kuminga be something the Warriors would consider?

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He’s a lot bigger than KCP, too — closer to a guy like Tatum than to KCP in functional size (wingspan, reach, frame). I think he’ll be able to credibly guard 2-4 as he grows up and fills out. Look at Tatum and Brown now compared to the skinny dudes they were at 21.

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Jun 25·edited Jun 25

The big issue to me with Moody is just quickness. Even after seeing him for three years, I really just don't know how his defense is going to be eventually.

The length and perhaps basketball smarts may allow him to get away with being less quick, or it may not.

The thing I've been looking for is the court-awareness. The only real evidence I've seen of it are the weak side pass interceptions he comes up with pretty regularly. Hoping we'll see more this season.

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Jun 25·edited Jun 25

Oh God. Just saw the Looney news. Not at all happy about it. I believe there's better value than Looney at that price and cap burden. He isn't the worst player in the league but he's far from the best. Took a step backward last year. Can't get a bucket without an Act of God.

There's no need to tell me that he helps locker room chemistry, that he sets good screens, that he gets rebounds, that he's an established vet. I know all that. I just think it's not as valuable as someone who can dribble and shoot a basketball at an NBA level. And if you want to be mostly a rebounder, you should also be a rim protector. He's like 4 inches too short for his role. It's also frustrating that he has never improved in offensive areas. The stagnation of having two non-shooters out there has really hurt in the past, and I don't expect him to start hitting threes this year, either.

I like the guy personally from what I can tell but I think they could do better. Bummer.

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> I believe there's better value than Looney at that price

Ok, who? Be specific.

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> took a step backward last year

But is still just 28, and two years removed from being the third or fourth best player on an NBA champion. I think for whatever reason he came into last season overweight, which took him from slow to sluggish. But he started to look more like the ~20 rpg monster from the 2020 playoffs later in the season. The reasonable hope is that guy is not gone forever.

The Ws have a lot of young guys and a lot of old guys, and not enough in the 25-29 sweet spot. For $8M you’re not gonna find many perfect-age guys with 7-4 wingspans and 9-2 standing reaches who pull 13-14 boards per 36, drop 4 assists to one turnover, set bone-crushing screens, and generally think the game (and Kerrball in particular) at a high level.

And that $8M (er, $9M when we win the ‘chip) has minimal effect on how they construct the rest of the roster, anyway. No reason to be “bummed” the three-time champ is not moving to another team, imo.

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I think it indicates they know the market is soft for Klay, and that they can stay under the apron without too much difficulty...

Loon, as imperfect as he is, is the perfect 3rd center behind Dray & TJD. For once, we're set at the center position.

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I don’t know about “perfect” as we still need a tall guy who can shoot threes. But if we can snag a Jalen Smith or Brook Lopez, I agree he’s a perfect third (or fourth) center.

And yeah, they’ve obviously worked out that the extra $5M is not gonna hamper them much if it at all.

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Lol, I almost added a comment about "Yeah, none of them shoot 3s"... but I didn't. I don't know... are we really paying a guy $8M at a non-premium position to be a 4th string guy who plays 10 minutes/game? That seems like bad GMing...

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I dunno, most teams carry four centers on the 15-man roster, and I don’t think the extra $5M affects much. They may also want to minimize Dray’s C minutes at age 34.

Or they may want the flexibility to trade Dray, or Loon…

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Yeah, I can see a trade...

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It could be that MDJ feels the need for insurance at the backup 5 while he figures out who else he can bring in. It's not guaranteed that he can find someone better than JaMychal Green or Dario or Bjelica (who was serviceable to a point but no more than that). So presumably TJD starts, and Loon is the backup until someone better comes along.

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Dario had a lot of potential but for some reason, they went in a different direction. He was the perfect stretch 5 and I wouldn't be surprised if they picked him up again.

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But he couldn’t stay in front of anybody. The Warriors need D in the key.

So happy Looney is getting paid. His game is subtle and under-appreciated.

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They stopped utilizing him. D in the key was never his game. They didn't sign him for his D.

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Jun 25·edited Jun 25

How do you think they could do better given their salary and trading constraints?

I value rebounding and defense at the center position. Not many multi skilled players who can provide that plus offensive production. I'm not sure they are available and that the Warriors are in a position to acquire anyone like that.

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TJD is a scorer, rebounder, and shot blocker. No 3 ball, poor FT, but extremely high BBIQ. He's a keeper.

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Wouldn’t shock me if he’s included in a trade soon

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That’s my hope in this

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Panthers win 2-1 and win the Stanley Cup!

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Was really hoping Edmonton would have pulled that off.

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RemovedJun 25·edited Jun 25
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Edmonton gave it their all, but they looked tired as heck in the last several minutes of the 3rd period.

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They looked liked they were being worked and bullied the entire game.

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Could have pulled their goaltender a little earlier IMO.

Don't know if it was fatique or strategy, but they did not seem to value puck possesion in those last minutes... a lot of long passes hoping to get breakaways and dump-ins that resulted in scrambles along the boards which the Panthers tied up and could take time off the clock.

I'm not a close ice hockey follower and by no means very knowledgeable of tactics, etc... but those were my uninformed observations watching with the sound muted.... It was an interesting game, as Game 7s should be.

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deletedJun 25
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Feel a little sorry for them.

Somehow ice hockey teams in Florida winning championships seems wrong.

Not sure ones from California are really all that much different, but I'll root for the Sharks.

Maybe they can add a Celebrini and get back to the playoffs and Cup contention.

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Well Tampa Bay and Florida must be on to something. Maybe it's those beautiful beaches they have that do something to the brain.

Sharks have a long way to go even with Celebrini to be back to contention but it should be a lot of fun to watch these sharpshooters develop. They haven't had anyone like this for a very long time.

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I guess we're about to find out this weekend whether Paul George will be traded or not

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I think a huge message to old guys have been sent this season. The league doesn't seem enamored by them any longer. Too many young stars playing lights out.

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There have since been several centers linked to the Lakers at No. 17 in Wednesday’s NBA Draft, most recently Baylor freshman Yves Missi as well as Indiana sophomore Ke’lel Ware. Pelicans center Jonas Valančiūnas, who’s approaching unrestricted free agency, has been another big man often mentioned by NBA figures as a potential Lakers frontcourt addition this summer.

Los Angeles has also made that No. 17 selection available via trade, sources said, as the Lakers have evaluated the market for a significant contributor alongside James and Davis. The Lakers, remember, held serious talks with Atlanta about acquiring Dejounte Murray in the lead-up to February’s trade deadline. Jerami Grant, a client of Klutch Sports CEO Rich Paul, is believed to be another potential addition on the Lakers’ wishlist, according to league sources.

https://sports.yahoo.com/with-new-coach-jj-redick-at-the-helm-the-lakers-draft-strategy-beginning-to-take-shape-232824674.html

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LOOOOOOOOON

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The Bulls have extended the qualifying offer to Patrick Williams, league source tells @YahooSports, making him a restricted free agent.

https://x.com/JakeLFischer/status/1805392004530241630

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OT: Stanley Cup Game 7 starts soon.

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((

Mike Dunleavy Jr. confirms the team guaranteed Kevon Looney's $8 million salary for 2024-25. The center had $3 million guaranteed regardless.

"I just think we value him so much."

))

https://x.com/DannyEmerman/status/1805375382834888873

But in the extended quote he said... "To move on without him, without anything in return, or to move on without him and not be able to fill that void just didn't make sense for us."

Yep...

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Jun 24·edited Jun 24Author

((

Mike Dunleavy says "internal development" has to be the Warriors' priority to improve first and foremost

"It's so hard to make a trade in today's NBA ... if it happens great." Dunleavy made it clear they can't put all their eggs in that basket

Mike Dunleavy acknowledges it would take "a lot" for the Warriors to move on from Kuminga, Moody, Podz TJD: "The scenario to move them would take a lot. ... The main thing is we believe that those guys can contribute and help the group now."

))

https://x.com/DaltonJ_Johnson/status/1805369134869626890

https://x.com/DaltonJ_Johnson/status/1805372155892568148

Makes sense... but this was also the guy that in his first press conference said Poole would be part of the Warriors for years and then traded him seconds later, so maybe don't take at face value. In fact, it was the same pre-draft press conference last year at this time.

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I am praying to the basketball gods that this is a lie. I don't think I have ever before wanted a human being to have lied to me as much as this press conference by MDJ.

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Get ready for the status quo.

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True about Dunleavy, but it's true about EVERY GM. To put it nicely, deception is part of the job...

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RemovedJun 24
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One isn’t a pattern

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One is the loneliest number that you'll ever do

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Saddest experience you'll ever know...

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Sure it is, like when you have "one in a row"... aka "just a single point in infinite space."

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Other than Curry and Draymond, there's not a player I'm more confident will be on the roster next season than TJD.

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They aren't magically going to disappear the whole team, are they? Unless the league has shut down rumors and gossip, very little is going to happen for the Warriors. But, there are always some FOs who lose their mind at this time.

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Lets go hard for George, without giving up Moody.

Steph Moody George Green can compete with anybody.

Gui santos is my fifth guy in our new death line up.

Pod-tjd-gp2-looney Will be a great bench.

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Jun 24Liked by Perks (GSWCBA)

https://marcstein.substack.com/p/this-week-in-basketball-can-only-9df?utm_source=substack&utm_campaign=posts-open-in-app&utm_medium=email&r=nuq3a&triedRedirect=true

I'm pretty sure that the Warriors are as interested in George as the Knicks — maybe more. Can Golden State assemble the likely multi-team trade that would be needed to win the PG-13 Sweepstakes? Stay tuned. The Warriors, as usual, are aggressively exploring trade options … with the Chris Paul contract situation we've been writing about for a month at the center of those efforts.

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Please cook, Dunleavy.

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He's making $48.8 million on the final year of his contract. So we would need to guarantee CP3's salary and probably add Wiggins if we want to trade for PG.

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Pretty sure the Warriors aren’t allowed to aggregate salaries in trades as long as they’re over the second apron?

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Basically they'd have to move CP3's date back, which he might be amenable to because he'd presumably get all that money, wait until Klay's contract comes off the books as the league calendar changes, and then they can add a salary matching piece (Looney or GP2) and then Kuminga, Moody etc.

I think they would have to agree it, announce it, before Paul George's opt-in date of 29th June and then execute it after 1st July? Which I think is doable.

Whether they should or not is another matter. He fits in terms of a veteran star with shooting and defense, but he's quite injury prone and ageing so feels risky given what we've just seen in the playoffs.

Not much leftover for Klay either, but I'm not sure the market is there for him anyway...

But who am I? Perks is most definitely the expert here! What a great breakdown this article is.

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I don't think there's a realistic path to getting PG. We have to stay under the 2nd apron for the entire season to aggregate players; we can't go under it and then back over. So if we add PG's salary, I don't see how we can keep Klay or use a trade exception, and we might have to unload other salary as well.

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I agree. A 34 year old whose contract is more than Klay's and will probably require the Dubs to give up other assets is a lot to hope for. I like PG but unless Lacob has lost his better sense, this doesn't feel like a move that should be made.

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I think they can do it after June 30 or some other similar deadline

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