Seems like there are too many unknowns to figure out what they will do with Poole right now.
$20 mil/yr seems like a team-friendly number to me, given he is the only reasonable Steph-substitute on the team, and I could see the Warriors doing that. Poole may not want it.
But,
1. Draymond has an injury that could easily be chronic.
2. Wiseman may or may not be able to come back from the meniscus tear (although it looks way better than it did two months ago).
3. I'm concerned about Klay to be honest. The offense is fine, but the defense hasn't been good, IMHO. Too early to know if he will get back to being a good defender (he was slipping in that regard before the injuries).
4. Kuminga's progression may make a wing defender expendable (Klay or Wiggs).
5. Steph's performance issues lately may force a rethink in the summer.
I could see Klay or Draymond being traded if injured (but not otherwise).
Most likely is that Wiggins is just not re-signed at the end of his deal, I think, unless someone is willing to take on his salary and give us some picks. I can't see the Warriors putting picks into a deal just to get him off of the roster this summer.
Feb 24, 2022Liked by punk basketball, Daniel Hardee, Patrick Murray
BTW THANKS Patrick, great to hear from you on subjects you love. I hope your post-sports-writer life is treating you well. And dude, get some more sleep!
And one final thing, this inefficient/streaky shooter criticism of Poole is weird. I'll show an example:
Player A: 29.1 pts per 100 on 58.1% TS
Player B: 28.3 pts per 100 on 58.2% TS
Player C: 27.6 pts per 100 on 58.1% TS
Player B is Anfernee Simons this year who everyone thinks is a budding superstar (and I 100% agree). Player A is last year's JP, and Player C is this year's JP. They're both 22, but Simons is in year 4 and Poole is in year 3. Simons' numbers are significantly more impressive due to context (tougher diet of self-created shots, worse team, greater offensive load, no Steph Curry on his team), but the difference is not as vast as most people seem to think it is (particularly if you consider that Poole is a better playmaker).
He goes through peaks and troughs. So does every other shooter basically. The GOAT shooter just went through a 2 month period where he shot like 30% from 3.
As for the Poole discussion, one thing I don't see being mentioned is role. Poole is obviously gonna make money (whether it's from us or someone else), but a huge factor in his decision will be role too. If we cannot give him a starting spot (If Klay continues to be our 2 rather than the 3), then it might be tough to retain him regardless (I know he's an RFA, but we probably wouldn't keep around an unhappy player). Whatever anyone's opinions on Poole, there's definitely a starting spot out there for him. And I don't see Poole accepting a role off the bench long-term considering how confident he is.
I would not be shocked at all if the Mavs beat the Jazz and maybe even the Suns in the postseason. They are built for the playoffs with Luka + Brunson as 48 minutes of top quality PIs + defensive versatility. Guys like Bullock, Kleber, DFS, Bertans, Dinwiddie and Chriss are also solid role players. People are scared of the Grizzlies (and rightfully so), but the Mavs are pretty close too imo. And of course, if the rumours of the Nuggets getting Jamal Murray back are true, then that team could beat anyone in the league if Murray comes back anything close to his normal form. The West isn't quite at the level of the East with its depth, but it's not nearly as bad as was feared initially.
I don't understand this early discussion of Poole at four years/$80M. That seems like a number everyone is taking way too seriously way too soon. He's signed for next season and then RFA. The Dubs can decide what they want to offer well down the road or even let him test free agency — especially if they really think he's looking for money that big — and see who else is willing to pay it. Then they can match or not. He's a promising young player but he's not worth that kind of money — now. Maybe later. So let's wait.
Feb 24, 2022Liked by Eric Apricot, punk basketball, Daniel Hardee, Patrick Murray
FYI. A highly-regarded NBA team executive happens to be a client for whom I’ve done some unrelated trial work. He tells me that NBA salaries will explode with the new TV deals. Basic issue: given streaming, only live sports deliver ad audiences. So, regardless of ratings numbers are going to escalate. He worries because players will be making so much it’ll be hard to keep them interested long term. Not sure about the logic there. But he’s very confident that huge dollars are coming.
I think back on Ian Clark and how he was told by media etc how much he could get as a free agent. I think Patrick McCaw listened to the same voices and dramatically overplayed his hand thinking he was a legitimate starter in the NBA. Both ended up on minimum contracts on the far end of the bench. I think Clark is playing in China these days.
I think of JaVale, I believe he is playing for the min. for Phoenix. He left thinking he could make a lot more $$ than he has.
Barnes got a max contract, but I do not think he has lived up to it...(until perhaps this year he is coming close). He was, IMO, lucky to get it based on the strength of the warriors and not on his actual skill level. BB is a team game and playing alongside world class talent makes others look better.
Poole is better then both/all three and more proven than both/all three, but I do not think he is a legitimate $20M per year player in the NBA.
Someone pointed out that WIggins will not likely get a max contract
I'd be curious how the front office values home-grown versus "ringer" talent. The Dubs have benefitted greatly from free agent veterans coming to play with Steph, Klay and Draymond, usually for the vet minimum or a little more (well, except KD). Fans have embraced those players who fit into Kerr's system. OTOH, the long-term (hope and) commitment that fans have with players the Dubs drafted has value. Personally, I much prefer a team that is mostly home-grown. Perhaps it's a little old-fashioned, but I can't imagine feeling the same way about a team of mercenaries, like the Nets.
That's why I'd like to see the next CBA offer relief (salary cap/luxury tax) to teams who retain their own players.
Any extension for Poole makes him an extremely wealthy young man which he would be wise to sign given the opportunity to compete deep into the playoffs for 4 years. If he plays well, that's going to increase his market value substantially for his next contract and if he doesn't, well, he still has $60m or so after taxes to pay the rent. Invest that in an indexed fund that returns a real 5%/year and he has $3m/year for life to play around with. The problem is overcoming ego and amature "agents" that think he is being disrespected by being offered so little.
Late to the party, but great stuff as always, Patrick!
Also, I’m guessing you were the only one rooting for Toppin to beat JTA in the dunk contest 😁
Would be very sorry to lose OPJ and possibly GPII, but keep JP.
Question for everyone who says Poole isn't worth $20m per year (starting year after next): how much would you say he is worth?
Seems like there are too many unknowns to figure out what they will do with Poole right now.
$20 mil/yr seems like a team-friendly number to me, given he is the only reasonable Steph-substitute on the team, and I could see the Warriors doing that. Poole may not want it.
But,
1. Draymond has an injury that could easily be chronic.
2. Wiseman may or may not be able to come back from the meniscus tear (although it looks way better than it did two months ago).
3. I'm concerned about Klay to be honest. The offense is fine, but the defense hasn't been good, IMHO. Too early to know if he will get back to being a good defender (he was slipping in that regard before the injuries).
4. Kuminga's progression may make a wing defender expendable (Klay or Wiggs).
5. Steph's performance issues lately may force a rethink in the summer.
I could see Klay or Draymond being traded if injured (but not otherwise).
Most likely is that Wiggins is just not re-signed at the end of his deal, I think, unless someone is willing to take on his salary and give us some picks. I can't see the Warriors putting picks into a deal just to get him off of the roster this summer.
BTW THANKS Patrick, great to hear from you on subjects you love. I hope your post-sports-writer life is treating you well. And dude, get some more sleep!
And one final thing, this inefficient/streaky shooter criticism of Poole is weird. I'll show an example:
Player A: 29.1 pts per 100 on 58.1% TS
Player B: 28.3 pts per 100 on 58.2% TS
Player C: 27.6 pts per 100 on 58.1% TS
Player B is Anfernee Simons this year who everyone thinks is a budding superstar (and I 100% agree). Player A is last year's JP, and Player C is this year's JP. They're both 22, but Simons is in year 4 and Poole is in year 3. Simons' numbers are significantly more impressive due to context (tougher diet of self-created shots, worse team, greater offensive load, no Steph Curry on his team), but the difference is not as vast as most people seem to think it is (particularly if you consider that Poole is a better playmaker).
He goes through peaks and troughs. So does every other shooter basically. The GOAT shooter just went through a 2 month period where he shot like 30% from 3.
As for the Poole discussion, one thing I don't see being mentioned is role. Poole is obviously gonna make money (whether it's from us or someone else), but a huge factor in his decision will be role too. If we cannot give him a starting spot (If Klay continues to be our 2 rather than the 3), then it might be tough to retain him regardless (I know he's an RFA, but we probably wouldn't keep around an unhappy player). Whatever anyone's opinions on Poole, there's definitely a starting spot out there for him. And I don't see Poole accepting a role off the bench long-term considering how confident he is.
Thinking Basketball's new video on the Mavs and Luka: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tKFrML3axzs
I would not be shocked at all if the Mavs beat the Jazz and maybe even the Suns in the postseason. They are built for the playoffs with Luka + Brunson as 48 minutes of top quality PIs + defensive versatility. Guys like Bullock, Kleber, DFS, Bertans, Dinwiddie and Chriss are also solid role players. People are scared of the Grizzlies (and rightfully so), but the Mavs are pretty close too imo. And of course, if the rumours of the Nuggets getting Jamal Murray back are true, then that team could beat anyone in the league if Murray comes back anything close to his normal form. The West isn't quite at the level of the East with its depth, but it's not nearly as bad as was feared initially.
I don't understand this early discussion of Poole at four years/$80M. That seems like a number everyone is taking way too seriously way too soon. He's signed for next season and then RFA. The Dubs can decide what they want to offer well down the road or even let him test free agency — especially if they really think he's looking for money that big — and see who else is willing to pay it. Then they can match or not. He's a promising young player but he's not worth that kind of money — now. Maybe later. So let's wait.
FYI. A highly-regarded NBA team executive happens to be a client for whom I’ve done some unrelated trial work. He tells me that NBA salaries will explode with the new TV deals. Basic issue: given streaming, only live sports deliver ad audiences. So, regardless of ratings numbers are going to escalate. He worries because players will be making so much it’ll be hard to keep them interested long term. Not sure about the logic there. But he’s very confident that huge dollars are coming.
Should I post tonight's opponent's stats here?
I think back on Ian Clark and how he was told by media etc how much he could get as a free agent. I think Patrick McCaw listened to the same voices and dramatically overplayed his hand thinking he was a legitimate starter in the NBA. Both ended up on minimum contracts on the far end of the bench. I think Clark is playing in China these days.
I think of JaVale, I believe he is playing for the min. for Phoenix. He left thinking he could make a lot more $$ than he has.
Barnes got a max contract, but I do not think he has lived up to it...(until perhaps this year he is coming close). He was, IMO, lucky to get it based on the strength of the warriors and not on his actual skill level. BB is a team game and playing alongside world class talent makes others look better.
Poole is better then both/all three and more proven than both/all three, but I do not think he is a legitimate $20M per year player in the NBA.
Someone pointed out that WIggins will not likely get a max contract
This literally made me LOL. Thanks. (good thing no one is in my office this morning):
"Unless some team employs Daniel Hardee and Dr. Tom as joint GMs I can’t quite see it."
MY GOODNESS THAT'S PATRICK MURRAY'S MUSIC!!!!!
I'd be curious how the front office values home-grown versus "ringer" talent. The Dubs have benefitted greatly from free agent veterans coming to play with Steph, Klay and Draymond, usually for the vet minimum or a little more (well, except KD). Fans have embraced those players who fit into Kerr's system. OTOH, the long-term (hope and) commitment that fans have with players the Dubs drafted has value. Personally, I much prefer a team that is mostly home-grown. Perhaps it's a little old-fashioned, but I can't imagine feeling the same way about a team of mercenaries, like the Nets.
That's why I'd like to see the next CBA offer relief (salary cap/luxury tax) to teams who retain their own players.
Any extension for Poole makes him an extremely wealthy young man which he would be wise to sign given the opportunity to compete deep into the playoffs for 4 years. If he plays well, that's going to increase his market value substantially for his next contract and if he doesn't, well, he still has $60m or so after taxes to pay the rent. Invest that in an indexed fund that returns a real 5%/year and he has $3m/year for life to play around with. The problem is overcoming ego and amature "agents" that think he is being disrespected by being offered so little.