112 Comments

Late to the party, but great stuff as always, Patrick!

Also, I’m guessing you were the only one rooting for Toppin to beat JTA in the dunk contest 😁

Expand full comment

Would be very sorry to lose OPJ and possibly GPII, but keep JP.

Expand full comment

Question for everyone who says Poole isn't worth $20m per year (starting year after next): how much would you say he is worth?

Expand full comment

To the Warriors: Poole with Curry last year, and Poole,Klay and Curry this year, show that he’s a legit asset that the Warriors should keep no matter the cost. Wiggins should go before Poole, period.

Also please someone talk to Kerr and get him to help a Curry out by playing him more with Poole & Klay or GP2. Poole and Klay because it’s a historically good lineup, and GP2 because he gives Curry a chance to rest on D and uses the open space effectively on O.

Expand full comment

$19,756,383.07

Expand full comment

You're pretty free with someone else's money. That extra $.07 you tacked on there at the end is gonna cost Lacob and Co. something like $.28 extra per year with the tax!

Expand full comment
Feb 24, 2022·edited Feb 24, 2022

Hot take: Poole will easily be worth a 4 year 100 million dollar deal. To the point that it might be considered comical that it was ever in doubt (sort of like how Zach Lavine contract discourse now feels ludicrous).

Expand full comment

I thought Lavine was a multi layer efficient scorer who was still being debated about whether he’s worth the contract. Poole is saving the Warriors a ton of $ every time he does his pull up and brick a 3 routine.

With his current stats trending up to 43&33% from 40&32% Poole will be lucky to get 12 million a year unless a team is willing to jump on a grenade to sabotage the Warriors.

Expand full comment

> lucky to get 12 million a year

That seems low. Gary Trent Jr. got ~17M a year after posting .534 TS% in '20-21.

Expand full comment

I guess the key here will be how much the league values FT% vs 3pt%. Poole’s TS is good because he’s a great FT maker. His 3 pt % is well below league average. If he’s paid based upon TS it will be because he can get to the line and make them.

I hope Poole has a long successful career with the Warriors, but it’s an interesting contract for him. I suspect he should limit himself to the 3’s he’s actually good at and getting to the rim /line if he wants to maximize his next contract.

Expand full comment

Yep, definitely getting to the line and making his FTs is his strength is right now.

But also, GTJ doesn't really do anything outside of shooting 3s. He can't score efficiently inside the 3PT line... doesn't get to the FT line... does not playmake...

Expand full comment

And GTJ took a lower dollar value deal for flexibility purposes too. He can opt out after next year and be an UFA. If he signed a 4/5 year deal straight up, he might've been able to get 20 million annually.

Expand full comment
Feb 24, 2022·edited Feb 24, 2022

Multi "layer" (did you mean level?) efficient scorer Zach Lavine TS efficiencies prior to getting his contract: 51.5% (rookie year), 54.8%, 57.6%, 49.9% (injury shortened season, but he played 24 games which is not a laughable sample size).

Inefficient brick machine Jordan Poole TS efficiencies: 45.4% (LOL - that rookie year was ghastly), 58.1%, 58.1%.

Zach Lavine became an efficient scorer after signing his near max deal of 4 years 80 million (as most young guards do). It took him until his 7th year (age 25 season) to be as efficient as Poole has been in the last 2 years. Jordan Poole's ahead of schedule on that count. All of this inefficient narrative is nonsense. He's 2-3 % better than league average efficiency, which is really good considering he's a guard (who usually have lower TS efficiencies due to a higher self-creation burden) and tasked with shot-creation duties in offensively deficient units (our backup units). He's been as efficient as Klay has been for his entire career during the last 2 years! Does anyone ever call Klay inefficient?

Poole has flaws. Significant ones. Efficiency isn't one of them. I don't understand why people harp on that so much. I wish he was at 56% TS and showed much more isolation creation ability.

Expand full comment

I agree with the majority of what your putting out about Poole, and think the Warriors should 100% sign him to the longest extension they can this summer. I just find the TS fascinating for Poole because of how he gets it. And I wonder what the league value is for those traits.

Expand full comment

Lavine got paid his prior max because the Bulls traded for him and essentially negotiated against themselves. This time around he’s earned it.

Expand full comment

They also traded for him (and gave away a bonafide star in Jimmy Butler) because they thought he was good.

And they paid the contract because Sacramento made him the 4/80 offer (they matched it as he was an RFA). Both these teams made the offer not because he was worth 20 million at the time of signing the contract, but because he had potential to be worth significantly more (potential which he has since realized). And he was coming off a torn ACL too which depressed his market. And JP3 right now is a better player than Lavine was at the time of signing his contract.

Contracts are not a 1 year thing. We gave Steph a 5 year supermax not because we think he's gonna be worth 60 million when he's 38, but because his production in the early years is gonna be worth it. Same with giving Klay a 5/190 deal coming off a torn ACL where he would miss 1 year. Poole is not a 20 million player today, but there is upside in him being a 30-40 million player. He may be a 20 million player by next year even. That's the price you pay for upside.

Expand full comment

Many variables here; Lavine had dunk contest champ athleticism (in a real jaw dropping dunk contest) too.

Expand full comment

I guess we’ll see if it’s TS (aka FT skills in Poole’s case) or 3pt % that gets you paid in the new NBA. It’s an interesting contract coming up for sure.

Expand full comment

TS% is not FT%, it's a measure of 1/2 * the points you get when you take a shot (which includes FTs). It measures efficiency accounting for things like shot distribution which simple measures such as FG%/3P%/FT% do not get. Hence why Steph can have a lower FG% than Westbrook despite being at 59% TS compared to Westbrook's 50% TS this year.

Expand full comment

Thanks for the breakdown. My point remains valid.

Expand full comment
Feb 24, 2022·edited Feb 24, 2022

Honestly I don't even think that's THAT hot of a hot take. He has all the skills to be extremely successful, and clearly he has the work ethic to get there. For me it's not just his progression from his rookie year to now; as a Michigan fan I've watched him since he was a freshman. His growth from then to now is astronomical.

If he had started with the Warriors all season long he'd be averaging 20+ points per game.

Clearly the Warriors need to make a bet here. They either bet for Poole or against him. He's shown enough it makes sense to bet for him. If he's going to end up being a $20m per year player he'll probably also end up being a $25m per year player. Scorers get paid and he's shown that he's more than just a scorer.

Expand full comment

They should bet on him. But shouldn’t negotiate against themselves.

Expand full comment

Seems like there are too many unknowns to figure out what they will do with Poole right now.

$20 mil/yr seems like a team-friendly number to me, given he is the only reasonable Steph-substitute on the team, and I could see the Warriors doing that. Poole may not want it.

But,

1. Draymond has an injury that could easily be chronic.

2. Wiseman may or may not be able to come back from the meniscus tear (although it looks way better than it did two months ago).

3. I'm concerned about Klay to be honest. The offense is fine, but the defense hasn't been good, IMHO. Too early to know if he will get back to being a good defender (he was slipping in that regard before the injuries).

4. Kuminga's progression may make a wing defender expendable (Klay or Wiggs).

5. Steph's performance issues lately may force a rethink in the summer.

I could see Klay or Draymond being traded if injured (but not otherwise).

Most likely is that Wiggins is just not re-signed at the end of his deal, I think, unless someone is willing to take on his salary and give us some picks. I can't see the Warriors putting picks into a deal just to get him off of the roster this summer.

Expand full comment

Wow this is a total bummer list. Klay will be fine. Steph will be fine. Wiggins is an interesting player who might move this summer if he’s not interested in a pay cut and there are teams who want him.

Expand full comment

Sad but true on Dray. This injury might push him into the booth a full contract sooner.

Expand full comment

Some good points in here. I like the point around lock in the ‘devil we know’ whilst dealing with the unknowns (decline/health) of the current core. But as most have said, I’m not that worried about Steph…for another few seasons anyhow!

Expand full comment

> Steph's performance issues lately may force a rethink in the summer.

Even now, Curry is performing as a top 5 player in the league imo. His struggles have probably taken him out of "best player in the league" consideration and they will probably need that version back to win the title, but the Warriors should be confident about what they have with Steph Curry.

Expand full comment

Curry’s the best. No other player has ever won the Kobe Bryant MVP trophy in NBA history. And no one else has even come close.

Expand full comment

I'm not questioning his overall impact. As you say, he's still one of the best players in the league. And, I think he will eventually get back to where he was.

The 'rethink' point I was trying to make (poorly) is that we might need to adjust the offense if the drop-off is permanent. You can already see Steph's shot selection shifting to more twos. Maybe his usage needs to decrease as well.

That might have implications for what kind of players need to be on the court with him (for instance, more catch and shoot guys and fewer slashers).

Expand full comment

He's gone from tier 1 (with Giannis, Jokic and maybe KD/Embiid) to tier 2 (LeBron, Kawhi) imo. But it was only last season when I thought he was the best player in the world, so that might still be attainable.

Expand full comment

I can see the argument but I don't know. Giannis, LeBron, and Kawhi are all certified as #1 options on championship teams, but the other guys still have some stuff to prove imo. LeBron in the late 2010s coasted hard but still arguably would hit the highest peak of anyone for a single game (2018 Finals Game 1, for instance). I personally don't think Curry is playing at full capacity right now, you can kinda see him coasting based on him being 46th in the league in iso attempts per game.

But I think a bigger part of Curry's "struggles" are actually more personnel-based than people give credit for. Curry is the only real facilitator without Draymond (and Iguodala). The Warriors tend to play Curry with multiple non-shooting defenders to dominate on defense and rely on him to survive offensively. Though I do think at one point the "slump" was real but was more fatigue-based or perhaps even injury-based (got a hip thing from taking a charge in Brooklyn, also had that hand thing) than people gave credit for.

I could be wrong about that for sure. But either way, I think there's probably an upper limit on how well he can shoot the ball unless he gets either more spacing (Klay hitting his groove) or more playmaking (Draymond, probably Iguodala as well) around him. Without either of those, he has to work too hard for looks. Once one of those elements returns, then I feel like it'll be easier to judge if he's really fallen out of Tier 1. Certainly looked Tier 1 in the All-Star game against a defense that didn't make him work hard for looks at all.

Expand full comment

He was "running away with the MVP" as recently as 3 months ago.

Expand full comment

Heck it was only earlier THIS season.

Expand full comment
Feb 24, 2022Liked by punk basketball, Daniel Hardee, Patrick Murray

BTW THANKS Patrick, great to hear from you on subjects you love. I hope your post-sports-writer life is treating you well. And dude, get some more sleep!

Expand full comment
author

Thanks Richard! Life is great, better than ever. Though no longer in control of my own sleep lol

Expand full comment
Feb 24, 2022Liked by punk basketball

And one final thing, this inefficient/streaky shooter criticism of Poole is weird. I'll show an example:

Player A: 29.1 pts per 100 on 58.1% TS

Player B: 28.3 pts per 100 on 58.2% TS

Player C: 27.6 pts per 100 on 58.1% TS

Player B is Anfernee Simons this year who everyone thinks is a budding superstar (and I 100% agree). Player A is last year's JP, and Player C is this year's JP. They're both 22, but Simons is in year 4 and Poole is in year 3. Simons' numbers are significantly more impressive due to context (tougher diet of self-created shots, worse team, greater offensive load, no Steph Curry on his team), but the difference is not as vast as most people seem to think it is (particularly if you consider that Poole is a better playmaker).

He goes through peaks and troughs. So does every other shooter basically. The GOAT shooter just went through a 2 month period where he shot like 30% from 3.

Expand full comment
Feb 24, 2022Liked by Eric Apricot

Klay got the same "inconsistent" shooter tag from fans (despite never having a season below 40+% from three...until this season?). I remember that Evanz wrote an article about it on GSOM:

https://www.goldenstateofmind.com/2014/1/19/5325406/daniel-kahneman-speaks-out-on-nba-fans-golden-state-warriors-and-klay

Expand full comment
author

eh, there was something recently talking about shooter variance. Both Steph and Klay were pretty high up on the chart. It was framed as "volatility" though, so may be as much about what their ceiling is

Expand full comment
Feb 24, 2022Liked by punk basketball

Well I'm more talking about how fans perceive this stuff. However, I'm guessing that the further away your average shot is from the basket, the more variance you will naturally have in your results.

I personally think that fans focus on variance too much and expected value too little when assessing shooting consistency though. Klay's season long percentages speak to his consistency more than his game to game percentages speak to his inconsistency imo.

Expand full comment

As for the Poole discussion, one thing I don't see being mentioned is role. Poole is obviously gonna make money (whether it's from us or someone else), but a huge factor in his decision will be role too. If we cannot give him a starting spot (If Klay continues to be our 2 rather than the 3), then it might be tough to retain him regardless (I know he's an RFA, but we probably wouldn't keep around an unhappy player). Whatever anyone's opinions on Poole, there's definitely a starting spot out there for him. And I don't see Poole accepting a role off the bench long-term considering how confident he is.

Expand full comment

That would be a Kerr lineup issue. Poole+ the Splash bros is a perfectly viable league wrecking lineup and only Kerr can hold it back by refusing to start it.

Expand full comment

Right, I don't really see Poole's path to starting for awhile and I don't think he's the type of player happy with coming off the bench in his mid-20s (who is, really). I don't see Poole's NBA future as an SG on a title contender. I do think he has a promising future as a PG, but I don't see how that future can be played out on the Warriors with Curry in the way for the foreseeable future. He's a sixth man here and why would he want to be a sixth man?

I personally suspect the Warriors are going to trade him.

Expand full comment

Perhaps check the net ratings for the 3 guard lineup with Poole and you will see how?

Expand full comment
author

Kinda reminds me of Holiday. He was pretty damn nice for us, would have loved to keep him, but he went off chasing bigger money and bigger roles. Ended up having a nice career, but he's definitely one of the guys I think about in regards to Poole's upcoming decisions

Expand full comment

Oh I like that comparison

Expand full comment

I think at least one of Wiggins/Poole is gone in a couple of years (unless we do the unthinkable and trade Dray or Klay, though keep your eye out on Dray's next contract lol). I think there is a world where Poole becomes really good and we shift Klay up to the starting 3 and divvy up the 96 minutes for the 1/2 between Steph/Poole/Klay, but obviously that requires that Wiggins not be the starting 3 (and he ain't gonna accept that, rightfully so).

I think we have this year and next year after which there will be some tough decisions. I really hope we win the title one of these 2 years.

Expand full comment

Poole over Wiggs 100% of the time for those who believe in math!

Expand full comment

Agreed. Although personally I think there's a real chance that they try to package both Wiggins and Poole (and perhaps other stuff) this summer for an "upgrade" at the wing. Obviously contingent on said upgrade being available, we saw last summer that sometimes no one who fits is out there, but I think it could make a lot of sense from a financial perspective if they deal with a rebuilding team.

I also think it could make a lot of sense from a basketball perspective, but it's hard to evaluate that part of it without actually knowing who the trade target would be. If you told me they could get like 2020 Jrue Holiday from the rebuilding Pelicans, that'd probably be the ideal target. A few years too late, oh well.

Expand full comment
Feb 25, 2022·edited Feb 25, 2022

An upgrade over an all star wing and one of the Warriors highest +\- guys while on the floor with curry better be Giannis. I’d even be pissed with Kawahi or Paul George in that trade.

Expand full comment
Comment removed
Expand full comment

Gotta think about who would be interested in that type of package though, at the moment it feels unlikely that any of those three teams would consider trading any of those players and starting a rebuild.

A Wiggins/Poole(/picks/Kuminga/Wiseman/Moody) package would probably be most appealing to a team looking to rebuild I think. Wiggins is an expiring contract as of this summer, and Poole's contract extension kicks in after Wiggins' contract is off the books which makes them a good financial pairing for a trade with a rebuilding team who has cap space.

On the other side, the Warriors don't have cap space and have limited avenues to add talent and cannot afford to lose Poole or Wiggins for nothing, but Poole by himself only makes like 3 million and most likely can't return a better player in a trade at that salary size and Wiggins by himself fits the Warriors well and is still a negative contract so trading him by himself isn't getting you a better fit (although trading Wiggins for a couple smaller salaried players and going for cheaper depth and future trade flexibility with medium sized contracts instead is presumably the other option here). So packaging them together allows you to get a big salary player who is good. And the Warriors would be "consolidating salary" in a sense, because that one player would cost less than post-extension Poole and post-free agency Wiggins in Summer 2023. JMullins makes an interesting point below about TV deals so maybe I'm wrong about this last point, but this would be my reasoning why it'd make financial sense from the side of the Warriors.

Depending on the player, the Warriors might need to add picks/Moody/Wiseman/Kuminga, but that's pointless to debate without knowing the theoretical trade target. Anyone would say "yeah ship em" if the return is Giannis so none of them are truly untouchable.

Expand full comment
Comment removed
Expand full comment

Why is Klay not a 3? What attributes does he lack to play the 3? The only thing I can think of is rebounding, but Wiggins is hardly a stout rebounder himself.

He seems much more of a 3 than a 2 right now (maybe even closer to a playoff 4?).

Expand full comment

If he signs a 4 year extension with us, it will run through 2026/2027 season. By that season, Steph will be 38, and Klay will be 36. If they're still starting, they're playing under 30mpg and ready to cede a lot of role to Jordan.

Expand full comment

And he'll be just 27 at the start of that 2026 season. So easy to forget how young he is now!

Expand full comment

If he were 27 now it might be easier imo, more of a realistic expectation that he'd be cool with coming off of the bench.

Expand full comment

How many players are willing to sacrifice on a role from ages 22/23-26/27? I wouldn't put any money on it (though Poole's obviously been very professional about his benching this year). Iguodala did it, but he was in the post-prime phase in his career in his 30s. It was only last season we saw Oubre bristle at that notion.

Expand full comment
Feb 24, 2022·edited Feb 24, 2022

He hasn't been benched. He's still playing 26/27mpg, and that'll grow more than shrink over the next few years. I think he has a pretty decent situation, but I'm a bit biased.

Expand full comment

He comes off the bench now after starting for over half the year for one of the 2 best teams in the league. He's been benched.

Decent situation depends on what the player thinks of it. Most players in Poole's position want more than 26-27 minutes and being the 3rd option.

Expand full comment
RemovedFeb 24, 2022·edited Feb 24, 2022
Comment removed
Expand full comment

This year, Poole will be 15-20mpg in the playoffs. After another offseason of great work, next year he could be really something. For a guy who's shown vast improvement in both his previous offseasons, that's probably more likely than not.

Expand full comment
Comment removed
Expand full comment

I don't see 36+yo Curry and Klay running around screens as much as they do now.

At that age, they are probably transitioning to mostly spot up corner 3 shooters.

Expand full comment
Removed (Banned)Feb 24, 2022
Expand full comment

Nobody can say with any confidence what Curry (or anyone else) will look like in 2026.

Expand full comment

I think I can say pretty confidently what Paul Rudd will look like in 2026.

Expand full comment

As I said below, Curry's not the primary ball handler now when Green's on the court. His biggest value is his off-ball movement.

Playing two 38 year olds 34+ minutes a night when there are younger, viable options to pick up their minutes is just roster mismanagement. Save the old legs for the playoffs.

You know how many active NBA players 38 and older there are right now? Two. Iguodala and Haslem. You know how many minutes they've played combined to date this season? 575. Games? 35.

We'll be lucky if Curry and Klay are *playing* at 38 let alone giving 34+ starters minutes night after night.

Expand full comment
Comment removed
Expand full comment

I'm not sure if you're just trolling now because it doesn't sound like you actually watch the Warriors play basketball.

Expand full comment

He gone, it would seem. 😊

Expand full comment

Thinking Basketball's new video on the Mavs and Luka: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tKFrML3axzs

I would not be shocked at all if the Mavs beat the Jazz and maybe even the Suns in the postseason. They are built for the playoffs with Luka + Brunson as 48 minutes of top quality PIs + defensive versatility. Guys like Bullock, Kleber, DFS, Bertans, Dinwiddie and Chriss are also solid role players. People are scared of the Grizzlies (and rightfully so), but the Mavs are pretty close too imo. And of course, if the rumours of the Nuggets getting Jamal Murray back are true, then that team could beat anyone in the league if Murray comes back anything close to his normal form. The West isn't quite at the level of the East with its depth, but it's not nearly as bad as was feared initially.

Expand full comment
Feb 24, 2022·edited Feb 24, 2022

> if Murray comes back anything close to his normal form

Murray was quietly having a not-quite-that-great year before tearing his ACL. A lot of people remember bubble Murray, but that was a very limited window of time and he wasn't playing at nearly that level before or since. Add to that coming back from an ACL and I don't think he's much of a factor this year.

Dallas on the other hand... ugh. They definitely worry me. Luka has a level he reaches sometimes where he's playing at top 10 all time level. If he can learn to do that more consistently, look out...

Expand full comment

I don't think we'll see bubble Murray again (probably ever) when he was performing like a top 5 player lol. If he can get back to a fringe all-star level this year (which is tough but doable), him + Jokic is the best offense in the league and that's a team no one wants to face. The thing is that Denver's guard rotation is so bad that basically anyone is a substantial improvement, even a 75% Murray.

Expand full comment

I don't understand this early discussion of Poole at four years/$80M. That seems like a number everyone is taking way too seriously way too soon. He's signed for next season and then RFA. The Dubs can decide what they want to offer well down the road or even let him test free agency — especially if they really think he's looking for money that big — and see who else is willing to pay it. Then they can match or not. He's a promising young player but he's not worth that kind of money — now. Maybe later. So let's wait.

Expand full comment

And that's the leverage to get Poole locked in at a long term number that's more of a discount. Who knows where the $20M comes from, maybe it's Poole's agent ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Expand full comment
Feb 24, 2022Liked by Eric Apricot, punk basketball, Daniel Hardee, Patrick Murray

FYI. A highly-regarded NBA team executive happens to be a client for whom I’ve done some unrelated trial work. He tells me that NBA salaries will explode with the new TV deals. Basic issue: given streaming, only live sports deliver ad audiences. So, regardless of ratings numbers are going to escalate. He worries because players will be making so much it’ll be hard to keep them interested long term. Not sure about the logic there. But he’s very confident that huge dollars are coming.

Expand full comment
author

yep, this is will be a big deal, and I say towards the end of the piece it kind of means the Warriors might only be super-duper expensive for a year or two, especially if they implement some sort of cap smoothing early this time

Expand full comment

Very interesting info, thanks for sharing!

Expand full comment

No question. NBC has already been talking about a deal roughly three times as valuable!

Expand full comment

It's why the Warriors offered HB $64M/4 years before he really started playing well.

Expand full comment
Feb 24, 2022Liked by punk basketball

Should I post tonight's opponent's stats here?

Expand full comment
author

Preview/GT will be up at noon for ya.

Thanks, Luna!

Expand full comment
Feb 24, 2022Liked by punk basketball

Preferably post their salary cap situation here.

Expand full comment
Feb 24, 2022Liked by punk basketball

I think back on Ian Clark and how he was told by media etc how much he could get as a free agent. I think Patrick McCaw listened to the same voices and dramatically overplayed his hand thinking he was a legitimate starter in the NBA. Both ended up on minimum contracts on the far end of the bench. I think Clark is playing in China these days.

I think of JaVale, I believe he is playing for the min. for Phoenix. He left thinking he could make a lot more $$ than he has.

Barnes got a max contract, but I do not think he has lived up to it...(until perhaps this year he is coming close). He was, IMO, lucky to get it based on the strength of the warriors and not on his actual skill level. BB is a team game and playing alongside world class talent makes others look better.

Poole is better then both/all three and more proven than both/all three, but I do not think he is a legitimate $20M per year player in the NBA.

Someone pointed out that WIggins will not likely get a max contract

Expand full comment

Javale has done ok. Made $65mm over his career per BBREF. And I'm still a fan even though he went to the Lakers. His game is fun and I really respect how he resurrected his career by hard work and accepting the role he was good at/offered.

Coda: Left the Lakers cause he wasn't old enough!

Expand full comment

Javale is not on min vet. He is making cool $5M. I think he is a better fit with a true point guard in a not so motion-otfense centric system. So happy for him. I have an affinity for under dogs

Expand full comment

In the interest of fairness, McGee left mostly for the sake of playing time, which he mostly ended up getting: every year after his second Warriors season he had more than MPG than in that season iirc.

Expand full comment

From what I recall, Javale left because he wasn't offered a contract for another season by the Dubs.

Expand full comment

Funny how we all remember different things. My recollection is we wanted to bring him back. The Lakers didn't offer him more, but he wanted to be in LA for media reasons (he had (has?) his own web series or something where he interviewed people in the parking lot? you can tell my memory is super fuzzy).

Anyway, I seem to recall him wanting to be in LA because of the media thing and to play with LeBron.

Expand full comment

My foggy recollection is partly like yours but I thought more minutes was a major reason he left.

Expand full comment

I'm sure he wanted those things as well but I don't think it was ever reported by anyone that the Warriors actually offered Javale a deal that year.

Expand full comment

Curious to hear what you think Poole should make starting in the 2023-2024 season given a. his trajectory, b. his current play, c. the likelihood of his increased role moving forward, d. that this contract is intended to cover years 5-8 of his career (essentially early prime), and e. the very real potential of losing him after next season unless they lock him up.

As I said below I think it's possibly an overpay but given the natural increase of salaries etc. I don't see it as an outrageous one. I'm curious as to what number you'd peg him at.

Expand full comment
Feb 24, 2022Liked by punk basketball, Daniel Hardee, Patrick Murray

This literally made me LOL. Thanks. (good thing no one is in my office this morning):

"Unless some team employs Daniel Hardee and Dr. Tom as joint GMs I can’t quite see it."

Expand full comment
Feb 24, 2022Liked by punk basketball, Daniel Hardee

"Turns out teams around the league generally aren’t quite as high on Warriors role players as us armchair GMs. "

Expand full comment

Same!

Expand full comment
author

MY GOODNESS THAT'S PATRICK MURRAY'S MUSIC!!!!!

Expand full comment
author

Much love Daniel!

Expand full comment
Feb 24, 2022Liked by Daniel Hardee

And he dunked on you so hard

Expand full comment

I'd be curious how the front office values home-grown versus "ringer" talent. The Dubs have benefitted greatly from free agent veterans coming to play with Steph, Klay and Draymond, usually for the vet minimum or a little more (well, except KD). Fans have embraced those players who fit into Kerr's system. OTOH, the long-term (hope and) commitment that fans have with players the Dubs drafted has value. Personally, I much prefer a team that is mostly home-grown. Perhaps it's a little old-fashioned, but I can't imagine feeling the same way about a team of mercenaries, like the Nets.

That's why I'd like to see the next CBA offer relief (salary cap/luxury tax) to teams who retain their own players.

Expand full comment

Yes, I'd also really enjoy a CBA agreement which benefits retaining homegrown talent (beyond just the current Bird Rights).

Beyond the fan narrative of enjoying seeing "our guys" grow up in the system (and I personally am also enjoy the story of one player staying with the same team their whole career) but this is really one of the best ways to try and level the playing field a bit for small market teams.

Players will always be attracted to places like LA and NYC because of obvious reasons. Not many people are going to willingly move to Salt Lake City when Miami is also an option. As New Orleans has learned, you can draft generational talent and still get screwed over because they bolt the first chance they can. Some sort of "hometown discount" built into the cap/tax structure could give players even more financial incentives to staying put and give those small market teams greater freedom to try and build solid teams around that talent.

Expand full comment

And clearly the Dubs should get "small market" preferences. It's not even one of the top 5 markets (um ... 6). Nope, I'm not biased. Purely an objective POV.

Expand full comment
Feb 24, 2022·edited Feb 24, 2022

Any extension for Poole makes him an extremely wealthy young man which he would be wise to sign given the opportunity to compete deep into the playoffs for 4 years. If he plays well, that's going to increase his market value substantially for his next contract and if he doesn't, well, he still has $60m or so after taxes to pay the rent. Invest that in an indexed fund that returns a real 5%/year and he has $3m/year for life to play around with. The problem is overcoming ego and amature "agents" that think he is being disrespected by being offered so little.

Expand full comment
Feb 24, 2022Liked by punk basketball

I mean, it's really more than just ego. Everyone, regardless of industry, should try and secure the best financial deals that they're able to (while balancing out other factors as well). He's certainly not going to be hurting for money any time in the near future, but with the earning window for these athletes being as small as they are the difference of a few million per year really does make a big difference in the long run.

That said, as you stated there are definitely other things to take into consideration.

Expand full comment

Well said. It'll be an interesting bit of 4D chess here with Poole's next contract. It will be his first big one that sets him up for life, better to lock it in before he gets injured, but will the Warriors offer enough? Can Poole push for fewer years and/or player options? Will he be able to time it with a new CBA/TV contract?

Expand full comment

This brings up another important point: this isn't necessarily a slam dunk deal on Poole's end either. It's not difficult to imagine a scenario where he outplays this hypothetical extension before it even kicks in, or at the very least early on in it. Does he choose to gamble on himself, or does he take the sure thing and set himself up now rather than risk a down year or injury?

Expand full comment
Feb 24, 2022·edited Feb 24, 2022

He should take an offer that makes him a FA when the salary cap is going to explode. Ideally get a player option there too.

This would lock in some "generational money" and bet on himself that he's gonna get an even bigger piece in the FA frenzy.

Expand full comment

This is a classic "perfect is the enemy of the good" type argument. Most rational people would take the merely good $80mm rather than roll the dice on a shorter deal and future FA/new contract timing. But NBA players are high confidence, hyper competitive, aggressive folks by nature, so it wouldn't surprise me to see Poole - or anyone else - shoot for a perfect outcome.

Expand full comment