Kuminga in a coal mine - current stalemate may signal something bigger

From Dynasty to Doubt: What the Kuminga Saga Reveals About Golden State’s Identity Crisis

The Golden State Warriors have transformed themselves into one of the biggest, most recognizable brands in the NBA over the past decade or so. Along the way, the league has morphed into something entirely new. New collective bargaining clauses that make it significantly more difficult for high-spending teams to maintain their roster - much less develop and then keep their up-and-coming youngsters.

But it isn’t just the salary rules that are causing anxiety. Teams in this position don’t get many shots at draft picks in the lottery and failure to land at least one of these opportunities could be Golden State’s “let them eat cake” moment. Perhaps this is the season when their version of the Bastille finally gets stormed. Everyone is watching this unfold and will judge the Warriors’ ability to navigate future issues based on these impending outcomes.

The Negotiation

Aside from elite talent, one of the not-so-secret ingredients to a basketball dynasty is that the underlying rotation of affordable players has to be refreshed frequently. The reason for that is two-fold. Firstly, these are gambles on low- or even minimum salary caliber players; some of which simply won’t pan out. For every success like Gary Payton. there are a few Omri Casspi or Patrick McCaw misses. The second factor is on the opposite end of the spectrum: players who play themselves out of the Warriors salary range so go on to other places. Oubre, Boucher, Holiday, DiVincenzo. Names that fans will certainly recognize, if not perhaps the most impactful or well known contributors - but guys that would slot into the rotation.

I hesitate to call it a pyramid scheme, but there’s definitely a constant refresh of the low- to mid-tier that is a prerequisite for continued success. It’s been a while since anyone has directly asked the question, but I’m curious to know if Lacob still believes that the Warriors’ front office is Light Years ahead of the rest of the league.

This stalemate is a problem. Not just for the current season, but for the franchise as a whole. We are just a few weeks away from the start of training camp and with the Kuminga negotiations stalling every other major move, the front office has been paralyzed to the point that even the strongly rumored new arrivals like Al Horford might decide to move along in some other direction.

Lacob, ever the venture capitalist has seen where this stalemate is going (nowhere) and recently decided to throw some additional money at the problem.

Anthony Slater and Shams Charania, who co-bylined the story published Monday, reported that the Dubs offered Kuminga, who is a restricted free agent, a three-year, $75.2 million deal, which would be the team’s highest reported offer to the 22-year-old. Previously, the offer was for two years at $45 million with a team option in the second year and waiving the inherent no-trade clause. This latest offer puts the team option in the third year instead but keeps the removal of the clause.

As part of my day job, I’ve been learning a lot about negotiations. And one thing that stuck out to me when I read this is that the Warriors and Kuminga seem to have very different views of how viable the worst-case outcome is. In the context of negotiations, the key phrase here is "Best Alternative to a Negotiated Agreement" (or BATNA) which is a foundational principle that’s all about understanding how viable your strongest backup plan is, if the current negotiation fails.

In Kuminga’s camp, the BATNA isn’t all that bad. Take the Qualifying Offer, leading to Unrestricted Free Agency next season. They clearly have a strong belief that he’s either going to be able to leverage a better deal from Golden State or get free (where he also expects a better deal). Boldly, they have sent Kuminga’s agent out on a press tour, where he laid out their framework pretty clearly.

"If [the Warriors] want to win now, if you want a guy that's happy and treated fairly who is a big part of this team, we believe, moving forward, you give him the player option," Turner said. "You do lose a little of that trade value [giving that up]. But if it's about the here and now, you give him that. You don't get a perfect deal, but you get a pretty good deal and he gets to feel respected about what he gets and we all move on and worry about winning, helping Steph [Curry]."

Golden State is the only team in the league that hasn’t signed a free agent this off-season. The front office, rather than being Light Years ahead, seems frozen. But then again, it’s hard to tell the difference from poise, indifference, and lack of knowledge from outside of all of this.

There’s an argument to be made that the Warriors front office is screwing this up. Badly. I understand why it would get to this point, but this is the dumbest free agency stalemate I can think of in recent memory. This isn’t just holding up the rest of their off-season moves, it’s exposing the front office to serious reputational damage. Sure, James Wiseman miss was extremely regrettable, and there will always be “oh, look who was still on the board when they drafted [x]” but whiffing on Kuminga would make the front office pattern of failure much harder to look past. And this does look like it could into a world class whiff.

An Early Warning of Danger

Kuminga was a key player in rotation but his role never settled, even prior to the arrival of Jimmy Butler. The reasons for both are quite similar: depending on what you want, it’s hard to find areas where Kuminga was the team’s best option. Off the bench or as a starter, the lithe wing excels at making cuts and breaking down a defense by attacking the rim - both areas Golden State would seem to want as much help as possible.

Reportedly, the offers that we sent to the Warriors were lukewarm at best. The Sacramento Kings were willing to part with Malik Monk and a protected first-round pick, while veteran Royce O'Neale and 2nd round picks were what the Phoenix Suns were willing to give up. That’s when the team’s negotiation strategy should have made a pivot. That was the last vestige of leverage. Maybe the Warriors should have made a trade even earlier, but this fence sitting posture has partially fed this stalemate. By allowing the dynamic to come all the way back around to keeping Kuminga, the only bad outcome now for Kuminga involves unrestricted free agency - a coveted goal for any player.

But it seems like the Warriors still think this is the outcome that Kuminga is trying hard avoid.

By throwing extra money at the problem, the Warriors have cemented the fact that they don’t have a firm grasp of Kuminga’s value. After all this time together, Golden State is still sort of guessing at how badly they want to keep their lottery pick. All these years later, the Warriors are still lukewarm - and it shows. But to be fair, look at the output:

• 47 games played

• 24.3 minutes per game

• 15.3 points per game

Shooting only 30.5% from deep and not pulling down many rebounds (4.6) or generating many assists (2.2 per game) doesn’t help the value proposition.

And look, the reality is that those two consecutive 34-point games (career high, then tied it) are a big part of the decision making roadblock. Kuminga is good. There may even be some hints of greatness showing in flashes.

Which brings us back to the canary in the coalmine.

What makes the Kuminga saga more than just a stalled negotiation is how perfectly it mirrors Golden State’s broader identity crisis. The Warriors built their dynasty by finding undervalued players, developing them within a clear system, and then rewarding the ones who fit. But Kuminga represents the tension between past and present: is Golden State still the franchise that turns potential into production, or are they now a team grasping at the edges of their old formula? The question isn’t just whether Kuminga stays or goes - it’s whether the Warriors themselves still believe in the blueprint that got them here. Does the front office know what they are doing?

If this is a player you’d like to keep, then don’t hold up negotiations. Set a reasonable timeline and make a decision at the negotiating table. Yes, it’s complicated. Kuminga’s game is uncertain - and the addition of Jimmy Butler only complicated matter because Butler is so much better at basketball than Kuminga at this point.

When Golden State benched him in the playoffs, Kuminga likely saw it for what it was: an indication that he was still entirely optional. They benched him, tried to trade him, and are now faced with Plan Z. Salvage whatever they can, and keep their options open.

This might be it for the Light Years talk. Already on thin ice, these nickel and dime hangups delaying current team preparations are problematic. Not just for this current run. The entire facade of this team’s management may crumble under the pressure of re-signing Kuminga. Another lost chance at a lottery pick at this juncture is a disaster - and more importantly everyone knows it. As the kids say, this is fumbling the bag.

There weren’t many levers left to pull to extend this dynasty, if Kuminga does indeed walk away after all of this, there’s plenty of blame to go around. From a front office that didn’t or couldn’t make a decisive move when needed, to an ownership group that has too many conflicting opinions to efficiently navigate these difficult decisions, this is (as they say) light years from where the team needs to be right now.

There’s bound to be some cascade impacts. Players still moving their families or dealing with some other outside distractions while getting ready for the new season; or a quicker than expected ramp up with Golden State’s complicated motion-based offense.

But maybe more important than that is the long term reputational harm. After a commendable reawakening since the departure of Kevin Durant, the front office is floundering themselves out of options.

At the heart of all this is a simple but uncomfortable question: are the Warriors still the innovators who bent the NBA to their will, or just another aging contender clinging to yesterday’s formulas? The Kuminga negotiations aren’t just about a contract; they’re about whether Golden State can still recognize and commit to the future when it’s staring them in the face. Maybe Kuminga becomes the bridge to the next era, maybe he walks away and becomes the latest example of a front office too cautious to decide. Either way, the stakes are bigger than one player. Are the Warriors protecting their dynasty, or writing the first chapters of the obituary?