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Curry fam doing things. Steph doing daddy things.

https://www.instagram.com/reel/C-Ycs1LIW2P/?igsh=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==

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Grant Hill admitting that he was worried that LeBron, Steph and KD were too old to play in Paris Olympics.

https://www.reddit.com/r/warriors/comments/1emtzb5/vardon_oneonone_with_grant_hill_why_build_team/

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"In order to create the cap space to renegotiation-and-extend Lauri Markkanen, the Utah Jazz renounced the free agents Talen Horton-Tucker and Kira Lewis Jr."

https://x.com/keithsmithnba/status/1821275468383109319?s=46

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Aug 7·edited Aug 7

Can one of our capologists explain this comment?

I thought Utah had LM's Bird rights (which would have passed to us to sign him to a big extension, had the deal been completed). Why would they need to be under the cap?

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Aug 8Liked by Eric Apricot

Roughly speaking, you can only offer somebody 40% more than their current salary in the first year of an extension. So with LM making ~$18M this season, an extension would be limited to starting around $25.2M ($18M + 7.2M). Since LM is worth max money, he wouldn’t accept an extension that low.

To be able to extend him at a higher number, they need to renegotiate his current salary for 2024-2025 and increase it. I’m not sure of all the details here, but the key detail is that a team can only use cap space when renegotiating a deal.

Utah used their free cap space to renegotiate LMs contract for 2024-2025 from ~$18M to $42.3M, and then extend him with raises off of that $42M number.

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Thanks. As EA said, that was well done.

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author

This is right and nicely explained. This article might answer some of the lingering questions: https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2022/11/hoops-rumors-glossary-renegotiations-3.html

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Aug 8·edited Aug 8

Because in addition to the extension we would've given him, they bumped up his salary for this season (renegotiation, pretty rare I think).

Edit: It would be hilarious to see the reactions of Laker fans if we signed THT and turned him into a solid rotation player.

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"Free agent guard Malachi Flynn has agreed on a one-year deal with the San Antonio Spurs, sources tell @TheAthletic @Stadium. Flynn – who had a career high 50 points in April – averaged eight points in 14 minutes per game for Pistons last season."

https://x.com/ShamsCharania/status/1821295411568767480

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Lots of random Olympics thoughts:

USA WBB steamrolling Nigeria 52-33 at halftime. USA dominance inside continues with Stewart and Wilson combining for 23 points and no one else in double digits.

It's actually an interesting comparison with Steph's situation with USA MBB. Sabrina Ionescu -- an imperfect comparison but as a deadeye shooter, good comp -- pretty much spends her time setting up the bigs. Very occasionally she gets to shoot a three. In past games, USAWBB has been outshot from 3P as a game plan. That's because they are in a similar position to USA MBB.

For USA MBB:

- MBB has a big talent superiority at almost every position. Therefore you want to reduce variance as much as possible, which means high percentage shots and low turnovers.

- Most of the players (besides KD and notable role players Jrue and White) are best on-ball and are not used to off-ball screening for shooters.

- Therefore, the logical plan is (1) defend well and score like crazy in transition, (2) push the pace to turn early offense into semi-transition, (3) go for low variance halfcourt play: begin each action with a few simple single-option off-ball cuts (like backdoor cuts, maybe a pindown or a curl into the lane) and if that fails, let the on-ball talent bail you out. This will keep turnovers low.

- In general, break even with starters and destroy the other team's bench.

So where does this leave Steph?

- Let's say USA MBB should win by 10 every time out on average. Let's say MVP Steph brings you a distribution of outcomes that's from +15 points above expected to -5 points. USA doesn't need that. There's only downside in that if you build your offense around Steph, he could in theory shoot you into a closer game than you want.

- If Steph were on, say, the Brazil team playing against USA, then you definitely want Steph firing up a lot of shots because they need the variance. For comparison, in reality BRA outshot USA 37 3PA to 31, SER similar 37-32 edge, PR, 37-32. (It's actually very weird how consistent this is, haha.)

- So his role is to cut off-ball, occasionally handle the ball in the PNR, get the ball to open players, play dogged defense, hit open shots (yes, not doing great at this in this context) and be the elder statesman everyone loves and respects for doing anything it takes to win Gold.

- They let him have one or two hot dog pull ups a game, but I feel like he looks conflicted doing it. His few memorable highlights have been in situations where he HAS to shoot it. Basically, like many GSW teammates have issues of conscience shooting instead of letting Steph shoot, Steph may have conscience issues firing it up instead of letting A Davis post up for an easy 1.2 points per possession expected.

- If USA gets a little ahead and Steph gets a little hot, I have no doubt that the players will try to force feed him against the game plan, because they likely really want Steph to have his moment. But we'll see if that actually unfolds.

- And in the very unlikely scenario where USA gets behind big, they may need Steph to try to shoot USA back into the game.

- So in conclusion, bad for Steph fans, bad for entertainment, probably best for USA gold medals.

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Aug 8·edited Aug 8Liked by Eric Apricot

So, would any opponent be bold enough to give Steph the Tony Allen treatment, and assume he isn't going to shoot or if he does he'll still miss a lot, and focus on packing the paint and leave 30, uh, 4, open? Just like the US would rather have a more sure basket with AD, since sticking with Steph hasn't worked, they could force the US to take more high variance shots.

Or in other words, if you're going to get fired, might as well get fired for leaving Steph.

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If Steph gets to effectively take unguarded practice shots, it's going to get low variance very, *very* quickly, and at a scoring efficiency impossible at the rim to boot.

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Aug 7Liked by Eric Apricot

It seems that the other comparison between Steph and Sabrina is that they are both smaller, slower, less athletic than the majority of people they are playing with. Therefore, the game is concentrated amongst these talented, larger, athletic groups of players.

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I think Steph is probably faster than anyone else on Team USA, definitely with the ball. Let’s not get carried away here.

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I think Bron can probably play point forward as the 3rd or 4th option on a contending team until he’s like 45 IMO

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He’s going the Tom Brady route

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You often see retired players talking about knowing it was time when either (1) they can’t play at the highest level of course, or (2) they can still play at a very high level but it’s so much work and pain to stay in shape and do the rehab for all the new and lingering injuries. I suspect Bron will hit (2) first.

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First wheel generally falls off in your 40's. He should retire while he's still relatively unhobbled.

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I agree, it looks like that right now. Although, I am always surprised at just how sharp the cliff is when it comes to the highest levels of performance; one season a star and the next, barely hanging on and done the one after that. (note: this opinion does not make allowance for outliers or performance enhancement ;p)

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I got a feeling Curry is gonna fall off that cliff this year.

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It's gonna happen sooner or later. I guess we'll see. It doesn't matter if you're right though because there's no replacement for him. He goes until he can't and then everyone moves on, so you might as well hope you are wrong and we have another good year or even two from him.

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I think falling off a cliff for a guy like Bron would be averaging 15/7/5 in his twilight years. I don’t know if he wants to stick around for that long but I think he’ll definitely be capable of conserving energy and turning it up in spurts until he’s at least 45. He’s already lost a ton of vertical but his brute strength and old man speed is still enough to perform at this level. The only way he falls off completely is if his body fails him and that’s a possibility as well

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Yeah w his strength and size he doesn't even have to be in good shape even tho he is - just has to move like Luka and he can play a long time so long as he doesn't get any bad injuries

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The fact that we’re even talking about this is a testament to his longevity

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In that first play in the scram switch example, Klay seems to be one step ahead of Draymond signaling the switch way before Dray makes a move. Or was Draymond just baiting the pass to Powell?

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I think the other countries care more about the Olympics than the USA players. Yea the US wants to win for pride, but I think the other countries motivation is deeper in their souls.

With that being said, I hope we blow out Serbia and whoever we play in the final.

If France ever develops a really good NBA all star level point guard, they will be really difficult.

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Disagree. The Olympics is a point of pride given the standard the Dream Team set. It’s why we send our best here instead of that joke of a FIBA World Cup

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For the USA it's a damed if you do damed if you don't situation.

It's definitely different for other teams.

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Aug 7·edited Aug 7

The bright side of LM re-signing is at least he didn't get traded to an OKC, SA or HOU to make them even stronger. He stays in Utah and makes them painfully mediocre. The balance that the Western Conference needed. We have too many playoff teams.

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Aug 7·edited Aug 7

I'll believe HOU and SA when I see them win anything. LM would have made way too much sense for the Spurs though, and I'm glad Utah decided to aim for a drastic overpay and be happy with LM than get a good deal. (My real hope is that the Spurs somehow win the cooper flagg sweepstakes, if only because that team's possibilities would be a marvel to behold)

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Add Memphis to that list, imo...

Tankers: POR, UTA

Probably bad: MEM, HOU, SAS

Need to prove themselves: LAC, LAL

Should be good: PHX, NOP, DAL, SAC, DEN

Should be great: MIN, OKC

I think the LAC losing PP is a big loss, and they didn't really add any needle movers. I think LeBron is another year older, AD is always a health question mark, and they didn't get any better in complementary pieces. GSW fits somewhere in the "Need to prove themselves" and "Should be good" categories, imo. If Kuminga/Podz/Moody take a leap, Wiggins avoids another big letdown season, etc., then we're gonna be very good.

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I think that’s a reasonable breakdown, but I would be inclined to have Memphis much higher and GSW lower. Ja+JJJ+Bane has been pretty dominant even though they’ve lost some role players.

My ranking would be:

[1-3]: DAL, MIN, OKC

[4-5]: DEN, MEM

[6-9]: NOP, SAC, PHX, LAL

[10-13]: LAC, GSW, HOU, SAS

14: UTA

15: POR

I also expect the gap between 5 and 11 in the west to be quite small like it has been for the last couple of years.

I’m excited for the warriors, I think they’ll win more than half their games, but the west is such an absolute slugfest. To get us out of the playin, I think one of our young players really has to take a huge leap and be in the MIP conversation.

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I agree with your top 3, and those rankings in general, but I just see 4-11 as one big tier that the Warriors are a part of. Houston and Spurs as 12-13

I can't even separate the Nuggets out.

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Yeah, the Nuggets were thin last year, and are getting a bit thinner... who's their 5th starter? Braun? Strawther? Watson? Westbrook?

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Not to rehash what's been discussed in many threads over the last month or so, but the gap between the #10 seed Warriors last year and the "out of the play in" #6 seed Suns was 3 games. And that's with bad Wiggins/Klay/Loon playing a ton, Dray missing hella games (his own fault), and a lot more bad luck losses than good luck wins. Do the youngsters really have to make a huge leap to be better than bad Wiggins/Klay/Loon? I don't think so... At the same time, I do think they all take some sort of leap and we do see some improvements.

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no but Wiggins/Loon need to be better than bad Wiggins/Loon. That or Kerr needs to bench em.

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I’d add “…and Draymond keeps himself in check” to that last sentence, but otherwise agree.

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Fixed it for you.

Will win it all (and has the best looking fans): GSW

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Houston made a pretty impressive run to end last season. They also have a bunch of young guys that's trending up so I don't expect them to be "probably bad" but they definitely still have tons to prove

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> Add Memphis to that list, imo...

They don't belong on that list. They were ravaged by injuries last season but they finished second in the West the previous two seasons. They are more proven than a team like Sacramento tbh.

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Yeah, I trust MEM more than NOP or SAC, although not having Steven Adams at center will probably hurt them more than is mentioned imo.

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Aug 7·edited Aug 7

No Adams, no Anderson, no Melton, no Jones, Clarke coming off an achilles injury, Ja is still tiny and gets banged up... I don't trust them.

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Yeah, I'm not saying I trust them either, I'm saying I trust their core more than NOP or SAC

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Joe, I don't think anyone thinks that Team USA won't prevail, except maybe 'From Munich With Love'.👩🏻‍🚒

This team is the Wet Dream Team. Stallions and Thoroughbred's from the best stables. Billionaires and millionaires.

As Paul Simon said,

These are the days of lasers in the jungle

Lasers in the jungle somewhere

Staccato signals of constant information

A loose affiliation of millionaires and billionaires.

They take all the freshness out of the Olympic spirit. Personally, I don't want to see Djokic and Alcarras fight for the gold here. I already see them at Roland Garros and other venues around the world. I like the idea of Cassius Clay morphing into Muhammed Ali. I could care less about Curry not getting enough looks and Lebron just taking over games. Seen it all. Money just seems to ruin so much in this world.

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> Personally, I don't want to see Djokic and Alcarras fight for the gold here.

I agree regarding tennis and golf. If it doesn't feel like the most important event in the discipline then it should either be removed from the Olympics or treated like men's soccer and made into a U23 thing or something imo*. However, this is indeed the pinnacle for international basketball so I do not agree when it comes to basketball.

Also, the rest of the world is on a great trajectory with basketball, I don't know how much longer the USA is going to be the overwhelming favorite.

*Or in golf's case, abolished as a sport and replaced with disc golf which is much less ecologically disastrous.

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Aug 7·edited Aug 7

Tell that to Djokovic who was in tears after his win. It was the only career accomplishment he didn’t have, not to mention the pride he felt winning for Serbia.

And the only reason this is now the pinnacle for basketball is because the Dream Team made it that way after other countries tried to rub their wins in our faces (notably the USSR and Yugoslavia). Any major tournament where the best of the best play should be considered a top event.

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Aug 7·edited Aug 7

A shout out to disc golf!

As a former golfer and current disc golfer, I agree. The latter has it all over the former:

* Better for the environment

* Less cost-based barriers to entry (cheaper equipment and most courses are free)

* More varied terrain through mountains and forests

* More shot shaping

Edit: I forgot “far less pretentious”

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I know this was about the olympic team, but I really enjoyed the Draymond part. I know he annoys a lot of people but the man can play basketball. Watching him play D while orchestrating the rest of the team on D at the same time is just awe inspiring. If anything he is under appreciated as a defensive player.

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Nah, he reminds us all the time that he is #1, defensively. We couldn't forget if we tried.

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Your feeble attempt at sarcasm aside, you clearly do not value his contributions to winning and would rather get rid of him. That's your right as a fan. I'm just pointing out that, it is the basketball equivalent of cutting of your nose to spite your face. I'm confident MJD and Kerr will not follow your and other's advice to get rid of or at least move Dray to the bench and if they do it will be the beginning of the Warriors inevitable slide into temporary mediocrity when this era of Warrior greatness passes into history.

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Feeble?

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Aug 7·edited Aug 7

I doubt Draymond's proclamations on the subject sway many people, and I think the way non-warriors fans remember the KD era probably underplays Dray's greatness at that time (and subsequent years)

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Woj:

[[

Utah Jazz All-Star forward Lauri Markkanen has signed a five-year, $238 million contract renegotiation and extension – including $220 million in new money, his agent Michael Lelchitski of @SIGSports tells ESPN.

]]

Now Lauri cannot be traded until after the 2024-25 season ends.

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Between being out of trade rumors for a year and collecting an extra 24 million this season...the guy made the best choice for himself.

I doubt there was ever a deal to be had and I hope the warriors front office were treating the situation a such.

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All these chatters about trading him when all he really wanted at the end was that big fat contract. Glad that this is over and MJD didn’t fall for it.

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If Ainge had got somebody to give him the obscene haul he was looking for, he'd have traded Markkanen, even despite Markkanen's wish to get that extra $14M... but he couldn't find somebody desperate and dumb enough.

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Hope they get the 16th pick in the lottery this year

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LM tired of hearing about getting traded

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The new Wizards Bradley Beal

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What? No, he's much better, much younger, and MUCH cheaper than the BB deal was when it was signed, both in absolute and relative terms.

Big contract on a tanking team, yes, but everything else, a big fat no.

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Aug 7·edited Aug 7

His new nickname is "Lotsa Money".

Glad this was the end result, TBH, and kudos to MDJ for sticking to his guns.

Remember those people who were worried MDJ would be a bad GM? Where are they now?

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That seems like the best outcome for all involved including the Warriors.

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The best outcome for the Warriors is they don't improve and get a top 30 player? No, it's the best outcome for Lauri himself, but I don't necessarily think it's the best outcome for either the Warriors or the Jazz.

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Bad outcome for the Jazz imo. Take yourself out of the Cooper Flagg sweepstakes entirely, set yourself on the path of year over year mediocrity. Too good to get a good draft pick, too bad to actually compete. Maybe they’ll be smart enough to bail earlier than the Wizards or find a way to readjust like the Kings, but it seems like an odd choice to me.

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Doesn’t LM’s trade value sky ticket next season? He’s now under long term contract through his prime. They miss the CF sweepstakes but potentially gain more overall value by trading him next season after they have a year of evaluating their current crop of youngsters.

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Utah could still suck just enough to get lucky and score the #1 pick. Who expected Atlanta would get the top pick this year? They were bad but 9 teams had worse records.

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LOL, couldn't have happened to a nicer guy in Ainge.

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I don’t know. Has any team really become a legit title threat using the draft strategy ? Even OKC only got there by getting their star through a trade and ironically they still have a million picks.

Utah has picks from Minnesota and Cleveland which are not even close to the lottery.

Maybe they signed LM and use their draft capital to add another star. I don’t even care but it got me thinking.

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I think pretty consistently the way you win a championship is you need to draft and develop 2-3 top talents in the NBA, and then bring in top tier veteran talent through free agency and trades once you’re ready to compete.

The Jazz don’t have those top talents, unless you really believe in Sexton, so what they should be doing is making moves to get in a position to have them. Instead they’re positioning themselves to stay mediocre and not have the opportunity to find their guys.

I’m not advocating for stockpiling picks like OKC, I’m advocating for not deliberately making moves that are going to leave you sitting in the middle.

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well I guess you could argue that having 1 top talent is a step in the right direction towards have 2-3

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Spurs? Jury is still out but they are in an enviable position.

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Outside of lucking into Web, their draft picks have not been stellar. If you are lucky to get a generational talent it helps a lot of course.

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Hip hip, hooray!

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