Jimmy Buckets can't lift Warriors over South Beach curse

No Steph? Big problem for the sleepwalking Dubs who were pounced on by an energetic Miami squad.

With most games in the modern NBA, it’s often possible to recap the entire affair by simply repeating the 3 point shooting percentages for each team. According to research found at Multiplicity Media (by @SravanNBA on X), teams that outshoot their opponent by 5% or more from downtown win around 80% of the time, irrespective of any other factor. Last night was no exception. The Warriors shot 23.7% from 3. The Heat shot 68% (yes, sixty-eight). Ergo, the Heat won by 26 points. Simple as that.

Except obviously that cold, analytical reading of the box score, while true, does nothing to tell the actual story of the game. It’s probably the reason the Heat won, and on Jimmy Butler’s return to Miami it was a nice throwback to the outlier shooting that helped carry the Heat to two finals appearances, but the real intrigue was the aforementioned Heat-Butler reunion.

After a couple of historic playoff performances to drag those Heat squads to the Finals and a bitter power struggle that led to Butler’s exit from Miami, there was real hype and intrigue about this game beyond the on-court play of either team. Mike Dunleavy and Joe Lacob even sat court-side in anticipation. And while expectations of high drama and a Jimmy Butler revenge game were understandable, astute observers saw the kind of languid, pitiful performance the Warriors submitted coming.

Sam Esfandiari of the Light Years Podcast noticed Jimmy Butler participating in professional athlete Mad Libs — celebrating French footballer Paul Pogba’s Birthday with Pogba and Spanish tennis player Carlos Alcatraz — and knowing the history of NBA players visiting Miami, let alone with 2 off days before playing the Heat, joked about profiting heavily on Warriors unders all the way back on Sunday.

Steph Curry pushed hard to return from his pelvic contusion and back Jimmy up, but he was ultimately held out another game, which always robs a matchup of a certain seriousness. The potential energy and animosity were further tempered by the relaxed nature of a Miami crowd and the meaningful things Jimmy did for the Heat organization while he was there. The crowd gave him an ovation during introductions, and while there were some scattered boo’s during game action, it wasn’t a supercharged environment at all. As Erik Spoelstra explained pregame, the strongest emotions about Jimmy and the situation happened during his suspensions and holdout earlier this year, and most people involved have moved on at this point.

Perhaps because the game lacked the expected juice, or perhaps because they’d indulged too much in everything Miami has to offer, the Warriors starters were odious in the 1st half, with no one making more than a single basket. The reserves saved some face at least, as Gui Santos had a nice night from 3 and continues to validate confidence in his jumper.

With Steph unavailable and no one else seemingly able to help him, even Butler’s experience carrying undermanned teams to surprising results wouldn’t be enough to resolve this game like the victory over Milwaukee. In all honesty, Butler appeared disinterested in proving a point or even acknowledging much of the greater context. He didn’t appear to have any extra motivation and was deferential to a fault, perhaps because he is so secure in his new situation and with his decision.

Against a team as well coached, and obviously motivated as the Heat, it was going to take a good to great night from Jimmy and everyone in blue, and they were far, far from that.

A topic of fraught discussion amongst the fanbase as this game approached has been the importance of point of attack defense, as code for the relative and absolute value of Andrew Wiggins and Jimmy Butler as players and the ceiling of this team in the playoffs after exchanging one for the other. Being able to defend at the POA is a significant factor in playoff success, and missing Wiggins’ talent on that end may end up being a fatal flaw for this team in the postseason, but Jimmy Butler is very clearly a better player, and getting to that stage wasn't a guarantee with the previous roster construction.

That being said, coming off of a 30-point game followed by a season high 42-point night, Wiggins was in a nice offensive flow and looked extremely motivated to remind everyone of just how impactful he can be. He was active and aggressive, and while it didn’t manifest in a gaudy point total, his fingerprints were all over the game as he amassed 5 rebounds, 5 assist, 2 steals and 3 blocks.

As evidenced by the more rational, empathetic and informed basketball takes found in the comment section, this community doesn’t need a reminder to appreciate Andrew Wiggins. So the following collection of clips is presented more as a response to those who want to be glib about the trade and ignore the incredibly well rounded impact that Wiggins has on defense, not just guarding ball handlers. In celebration of the player that Wiggins has become and the incredible things he helped the Warriors accomplish, please enjoy his defensive highlights from this game and the delightful, joyful reunion he shared with his former teammates.

Moses Moody, Wiggins successor as the Warriors primary on-ball defender, continued to prove he belongs in that roll, pressuring Wiggins into both an 8 second and backcourt violations. It was on the other end of the floor that Moody reverted back to his recent slide after a 20-point night against the Hawks, missing every one of his nine 3-point attempts.

Other warriors with inauspicious nights included Draymond Green, who scored 2 points and did not look the self-proclaimed DPOY. Green started at center over Quinten Post, even with another outstanding 7’ rookie center jumping for the Heat in Kel’el Ware. That choice from Kerr looked smart because Post didn’t do much to earn more minutes, committing 2 fouls trying to contend with Ware’s vertical explosion to accompany 4 turnovers and only hitting one shot. He did have the highlight of the night for the Warriors though, flashing vision and creativity that bodes well for his growth despite a pretty obvious travel.

Kevon Looney, the other member of the center rotation, acquitted himself much better, finishing the game as the only Warrior without a negative +/-. While Looney’s limitations are clear and obvious, and his production is almost always meager, his unique skillset and value to the team remain both subtle and substantial.

Bam Adebayo was clearly motivated by Jimmy being back in town, and he’d finish with a game high 27 points on an aggressive night. But Looney utterly neutralized him by staying on his feet on this clinical possession in the 2nd quarter:

For the rest of the Warriors, the game started poorly and mostly didn’t get better from there. They kept the margin manageable in the 1st quarter despite terrible shooting, but then promptly let go of the rope. And as they started to fall further behind in the 2nd quarter, it was déjà vu all over again from the depths of this season. Every Golden State shot was rushed, as whenever the Warriors got even a breath of airspace to shoot it seemed they were afraid they’d never get another again.

They felt so frantic because no one is able, or even willing to try to beat their man off the dribble, which means there is never any advantage created and the defense is never in rotation. Butler and Jonathan Kuminga are supposed to be players the Dubs can lean on in that situation, and while Kuminga had a few takes that highlighted the value of his confidence and aggressive mindset to this team, the relative paucity of those plays and the ultimate result underscored the limits of his abilities at the moment.

While regressing on offense, the old habit of doubling unnecessarily on defense returned, leading to wide open jump shots and easy attempts at the rim for the Heat, as it always does. Combined with awful shooting it put the team in a whole that they never felt like they had a chance to recover from.

In the 3rd quarter Jimmy Butler at least deigned to show some pride and ratcheted up his effort, offering a glimpse of the motivated star he’s proven he can be and a peak at the alternate reality where he sticks it to Pat Riley. Butler and Brandon Podziemski led a classic fake comeback that pushed the Heat’s lead down to single digits, but Miami quickly reasserted themselves and the game was over midway through the 4th. The most encouraging part of the game was probably Podziemski continuing to shoot in the 3rd quarter even after a couple of misses, which is about as sad a silver linings get.

There are still 10 regular season games and hopefully the playoffs to see if the honeymoon period is over and Jimmy Butler ultimately wasn’t enough to push this team over the edge. At the moment, this is only a 2 game losing streak and the potential for the team is still high. But performances like this, especially in light of the storylines and external meaning, and against 2 mediocre teams fighting for seeding in the eastern conference play-in tournament don’t exactly inspire confidence. At the end of the day, judging too harshly any game that Steph misses is folly, though it did seem for a while like Jimmy’s presence would be enough to change the Warriors fortune single-handedly like he did in his previous stop.