How much should we regret the Tyrese Haliburton / James Wiseman draft? Plus open thread.

Comparing terrible drafts across the league

We had an interesting debate in the comments about regretting the Wiseman draft and what level of bad it achieved, compared to other bad drafts. One thing this exercise brought home is that drafting is a tricky business and many — maybe most — teams have had a large number of painful misses. It just feels worse when it’s your team that muffs it up.

The whole draft loomed in the background of Tyrese Haliburton’s star turn in the NBA Cup In-Season Tournament. I wrote:

• Tyrese Haliburton is famously Dub Nation HQ's choice in the 2020 Draft. No really, this isn’t some 20-20-hindsight yapping, we did a whole pre-draft tournament and the group vote was for Haliburton.
  
  I wrote: Tyrese Haliburton just seems like the most Warriors player in the draft, with his high character, shooting, defensive effort and smart playmaking, and his weakness of poor shot creation seems less urgent in Kerr’s motion O and with Steph Curry passing to you. This season revealed that without Steph and Klay Thompson, the Warriors were the worst shooting team in the league, so Dub Nation is pining for players who can hit an open shot.
  
  I had Haliburton as my 1A with Okongwu, but I also wrote: Haliburton over Edwards. Edwards could be the next Oladipo, but Oladipo look a long time to become Dipo and Steph isn’t getting younger. The Haliburton dream is that his flaws (not explosive creator) aren’t relevant in Kerrball.
  
  Before we get too high on ourselves, I note that Haliburton beat Wiseman in our semifinals by 1 vote.

I present the recent bad draft discussion all in one place for your convenience.

JZAlvarado (3 ♡):

Happy Monday everyone! Just ur weekly reminder that in an Ideal-ish world, we could have been watching Halliburton Jr, Isaiah Joe, and KJ Martin Jr play basketball tomorrow alongside Curry, Klay, Dray & the rest of the crew 😭😭😭

Eric Apricot (10 ♡):

I understand the impulse to regret draft picks, but this sentiment to me is exactly the same as “in an ideal-ish world, we would have hit every three we shot this year”. Even the best drafters miss a lot, and it’s the court outcome that really counts. And I wouldn’t trade the “down times” of 2019-2023 for any other team’s stretch.

JZAlvarado

Since i can’t respond to all 10 of you in my previous comment in regards to the 2020 draft, ill start a new thread:

The 2012 (of which i talked about way more than 2020) draft will go down in lore as producing three championship level/producing starters (and Kuzmic) which even if we kept all 3 (and healthy) we probably still have 4 chips. Why is it ok to commemorate said draft while calling the 2020 draft one of the worst for any one team ive ever seen. IF we just pick just the one player immediately after the player we picked we knocked it out of the park. If we even pick somebody like Patrick Williams or even Okoro with the 2nd pick we are talking decent replacement level rotation players but it was a disaster all around. Point me to three other teams in the last decade that have had 3 god awful picks (in relation to who was still available) and ill retract my statement.

In a sense even after KD left we were/are still reaping dividends (draymond) from that draft class. Its in our misses that we are now starting to see how old we are then see teams like Minny and Cleveland running us off the floor with our youth. As long as we have the core ive been on record saying that i will gladly go down with that chip but just like that 2012 draft helped built this team, the 2020 draft g(i didnt even point to 2018 or 21 or 22) is gonna go down as nothing short of an unmitigated disaster

Eric Apricot (4 ♡):

Okay, this is a really interesting juicy topic:

> Point me to three other teams in the last decade that have had 3 god awful picks (in relation to who was still available) and ill retract my statement.

That’s not just doom 20-20 hindsight, that’s a real basketball topic. I’ll be back with my results in a few minutes.

Eric Apricot (13 ♡):

> Point me to three other teams in the last decade that have had 3 god awful picks (in relation to who was still available) and I’ll retract my statement.

Okay, I give you six teams. This is not at all exhaustive. These are 6 out of the first 8 teams I looked at. (MIN and CLE drafted pretty well.)

Let’s look at two teams you mention as doing well in the Wiseman draft:

# CHA

lucked into LaMelo as the obvious 3rd player in a 3 player draft.

2021. #11 James Bouknight, instead of Alperen Sengun, Trey Murphy, Tre Mann, Jalen Johnson, Bones Harland, Cam Thomas or our own Moses Moody.

2019 - #12 P.J. Washington one spot ahead of Tyler Herro, also missing Matisse Thybulle, Brandon Clarke, Jordan Poole (?), Nic Clayton and Tre Mann.

2016- #22 Malachi Richardson instead of Pascal Siakam, Dejounte Murray, and Malcolm Brogdon.

2015 - #9 Frank Kaminsky. Instead of Myles Turner, Devin Booker, Kelly Oubre Jr, Terry Rozier, Delon Wright, Kevon Looney(!), Montrezl Harrell, and Josh Richardson.

Bonus 2018- Drafted #11 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and traded him for Miles Bridges.

# CHI

2022 - #18 Dalen Terry has barely played, with the 39th most minutes out of the draft class. 21-23 were Malaki Branham, Christian Braun, Walker Kessler, (and David Roddy was next if you like him), and then Andrew Nembhard was also a missed option.

2019 - #7 Coby White. As before, they missed on Tyler Herro, also missing Matisse Thybulle, Brandon Clarke, Jordan Poole (?), Nic Clayton and Tre Mann.

2018 - #7 Wendell Carter Jr. Missed on Mikal Bridges, Shai G-A, Miles Bridges (gah), Michael Porter Jr, Timelord Robert Williams, Jalen Brunson, Mitchell Robinson

2017 - #16 Justin Patton. Played 22 NBA games. Missed on John Collins, Jarrett Allen, OG Anunoby, Kyle Kuzma(??), Derrick White, Josh Hart,

2016 - #14 Denzel Valentine, instead of Pascal Siakam, Dejounte Murray, and Malcolm Brogdon.

Also missed on Malik Beasley, Caris Lavert,

Bonus 2020 - Pat Williams instead of Haliburton

Now I don’t want to pick something too easy, like DET, so let’s go with everyone’s favorite:

#ORL. I’m getting tired so you can look up your own superior alternative picts.

2019 #16 Chuma Okeke.

2018. #6 Mo Bamba.

2017 #6 Jonathan Isaac

2015 #5 Mario Hezonja.

Now if you are requiring teams to have 3 complete busts, not just terrible hindsight picks, I present to you

#PHI

2021 #28 Jaden Springer

2017 #1 Markelle Fultz (I think this counts relative to trading Jayson Tatum plus a pick for the #1 pick

2015 #3 Jahlil Okafor

#BOS

2020 - #14 Aaron Nesmith

2020 - #26 Payton Pritchard

2019 - #14 Romeo Langford

2016 #16 Guerschon Yabusele

2016 #23 Ante Zizic

2015. #28 R.J.Hunter

2012. #22 Fab Melo

#SAS

2021 #12 Josh Primo

2019 #19 Luka Samanic

2015 #26 Nikola Milutinov

2013 #28 Livio Jean-Charles

JZAlvarado: Alright im here with receipts, EA: The criteria: high draft pick that was or is potentially a bust (especially if the next player is at least currently or was at least a replacement level starter), corresponding picks playability ie rotation or previous contributing rotation player (or starter) so without further ado.

2013 NBA Draft

Milwaukee

Jabari Parker

Damian Inglish

Johnny O’Bryant III

2014 NBA Draft (Cleveland probably at same level of bad as Warriors

Anthony Bennett

Sergey Karasev

Carrie Felix

2015 NBA Draft (Philadelphia)

Jahlil Okafor

Willie Hernangomez (traded)

Richaun Holmes

Arturas Gudadis

JP Tokoko

2016 NBA Draft (Phoenix)

Dragan Bender

Tyler Ulis

2017 NBa Dradt (Sacramento)

Josh Jackson

Davon Reed

Alex Peters

2018 (Sacramento )

Marvon Bagley

Gary Trent Jr (traded)

2019 (Suns)

Jarrett Culver

Cam Johnson

KZ Okpala

2020 (detroit)

Killian Hayes

Beef Stew

2021 (charlotte)

James Bouknight

Kai Jones

Scottie Lewis

2022 (Washington)

Johnny Davis

Yannie Nzosa

Alright only two teams have had arguably just as bad of a draft as the Warriors: Cleveland in 2013 with the Bennett selection and Charlotte in 2021 with Bouknignt and Kai Jones. I chose the worst top 11 player in each draft (extended to 11 to include Charlotte with Bouknight) sacramento bungled the bag with Bagley and that was disastrous but Bagley is a serviceable rotation player in this league and thar was Sacramentos only pick that year besides trading GARY Trent Jr pick

To summarize, i still stand by my point that the Warriors have had arguably one of the worst drafts in recent history with a player that can be considered an absolute bust by any metric and two other players completely out of the league in which the players immediately after are contributing rotation players. Out of every single non lottery selection i examined over the last ten years on the list, there were a total of 2 players. 2!! In which the player immediately picked after was a regular contributor in this league. The Warriors have Two in one draft they whiffed not counting Wiseman.

Eric Apricot (8 ♡):

1. I’ve lost track. Who are the three high draft pick busts? Wiseman obviously. Are you talking about Moody and Kuminga as busts? Those three are the only “high” picks. Evans and Paschall are out of the league, but those were ultra low picks.

2. Check out my list which does not agree with your list. I admire that you are trying to set out actual criteria instead of abstractly complaining about the draft as other sites have done. But as you can see from (1), I can’t understand what the standard for a bad draft is. My list has both players out of the league, and bad lottery picks.

3. I’m not going to cry about GSW drafting Wiseman, because he was a consensus Top 3 pick, even if I thought it was a dumb pick at the time. Life goes on, picks miss.

JZAlvarado (2 ♡):

My criteria was a star/superstar or even high level starter (more subjective) and two regular rotation players. But also looking at the players chosen immediately after. In 2020 im not arguing that the Warriors missed out on Halliburton because so did 10 other teams. It is also the belief that I will take to my grave that the Dubs would have chosen Ant had they had the first pick or if Lamelo goes first

But you look at how monumentally bad that Wiseman pick was in relation to not only the very next pick but also a few of the next several picks. Also im gonna push back on the ‘consensus’. Both ESpN mock analysts including Givony did not have him in the lottery. They had him mocked but not ranked

https://www.espn.com/basketball/story/_/id/30302076/ranking-top-30-nba-prospects

I remember my uh oh moment came two days before the draft with givony and I forget the second analyst on the Zach Lowe podcast saying that Wiseman at best would duplicate what Javale McGee was doing for the Warriors but Givony consistently had Lamelo and Halliburton as top 2.

So you have two players besides Wiseman in Mannion and Jessup in which the player picked after is a high level rotation caliber player. Yes i get theres a bit of narrowness in my criteria in like saying “Only 2 players have averaged 22 points, 11 rebounds 6 assists and 2 blocks in the month of December…” but IMO just looking at the player drafted immediately after if the Warriors just hit on one. Heck if we draft Wiseman, Mannion, and kJ martin then im not callinf this one of the worst drafts out of any team in the last decade. Obviously as i told

The other poster earlier, drafting Flynn doesnt negate drafting Kevin Garnett but it doesn’t mean that particular draft was nothing short of disastrous for the future of the Twolves franchise

Even if Ezeli flamed out due to injury and Barnes was traded i will always sing the praises of that 2012

Draft. What I can’t understand is why people take exception to me saying that as good as 2012 was, 2020 was oppositely as horrible draft and it’s ok. Its ok to reminisce on 2009 and 2012 and im ok with saying Bob Myers had an average batting percentage when it comes to overall drafting but also acknowledging that by far the Warriors had the worst draft in 2020

And one of the worst drafts of the last decade plus without consistently arguing about our 4 championships as if that somehow negates our shitty draft. Or thr constant Covid excuses when ive pointed out that 20 out of 30 teams hit on their draft pick. Another 7 were marginal. 2 were not ideal Hayes and The Phoenix

Pick and ours was the clear bonafide bust….at 2!

Eric Apricot (2 ♡):

Aha, I understand you now. Mannion and Jessup are so far off my radar that it didn’t even occur to me to get upset about those picks. They were really really late picks which rarely turn into NBA players.

I agree 2020 stunk as a GSW draft, and I don’t know who would disagree. I think for me I understand the thinking behind the picks, so I can’t get too mad one way or another about it. That’s the part where we may differ.

I don’t usually daydream about what if we drafted differently. For instance, I have zero negative pangs about not drafting LaMelo. I admit I occasionally occasionally feel a pang about not taking Wagner instead of Kuminga, but Kuminga was the consensus Top 6 pick that dropped to 7, so I get it.

Other Interesting Comments

hammystyle (5 ♡):

You’re weighting 2nd round pick misses too heavily. The only one that really matters is Wiseman. Which is a bad pick, but I can think of several relatively equal or worse in the last 20 years just by looking at top 3.

Darko over Wade, Melo and Bosh. Worse.

Oden over Durant. Worse.

Beasley and Mayo over Russ and Love. Equal.

Thabeet over Steph and Harden. Worse.

Derrick Williams over lots of guys (Kawhi, Klay). Equal.

MKG over Beal and Lillard. Equal.

Jabari over Embiid. Worse

Fultz over Tatum. Worse if you include the trade.

Bagley over Luka. MUCH worse

I thought the Warriors should have done whatever they could to move down and get present help. Because I didn’t think the talent was much different later in the draft. It was a bad draft and it’s hurting in the present, but it’s not historically bad.

DFiB (3 ♡):

I know it’s a bit outside your stipulated “last 10 years” range, but the TWolves deserve extra credit for:

Picking two players in two consecutive picks of the same draft who played the exact same position as the better player who got picked with the immediately following pick, which resulted in not one, but two teams’ draft rooms simultaneously celebrating that this better player somehow slipped past the TWolves to the pick they both thought they would be making right ahead of yet a third team known to be salivating at the hope that the Warriors would let that player slip to them (they did not, and we rejoice to this day that the Cohan Warriors somehow didn’t F this one up).

Asher B. (3 ♡):

This was a relatively GOOD decade for the Knicks, whose last really good transaction was drafting Patrick Ewing. My analysis of the below in **

2011 Knicks pick: Iman Shumpert

Available lower than that: Tobias Harris, Reggie Jackson, Jimmy Butler, Bojan Bogdanovic.

*Bad pick. Jimmy Butler?*

2013 Knicks pick: Tim Hardaway, Jr.

Available lower than that: Reggie Bullock, Rudy Gobert.

*Not too bad.*

2014 Knicks pick: Cleanthony Early

Available lower than that: Spencer Dinwiddie, Jerami Grant, Nikola Jokic, Dwight Powell.

*Disastrous year for everyone who skipped Jokic.*

2015 Knicks pick: Kristaps Porzingis

Available lower than that: Myles Turner, Devin Booker, Kelly Oubre, Bobby Portis. *Interesting question because Porzingis runs so hot and cold, but Devin Booker.*

2017 Knicks pick: Frank Nkilitina

Available lower than that: Malik Monk, Donovan Mitchell, Bam Adebayo, OG Anunoby, Kyle Kuzma.

*What a disaster. What has Frank done? At least they didn’t take Markelle Fultz first overall.*

2018 Knicks pick: Kevin Knox

Available lower than that: Mikal Bridges, Shai Gilgeous Alexander, Michael Porter, Jr., Donte Devincenzo, Kevin Huerter.

*Ooof. When you miss those first three… bad.*

2019 Knicks pick: RJ Barrett

Available lower than that: Darius Garland, Cam Johnson, Tyler Herro, Matisse Thybulle, Nic Claxton.

*Honestly not too bad a job. Maybe too early to tell. I'll take Herro.*

2020 Knicks pick: Obi Toppin.

Available lower than that: Deni Avdija, Devin Vasell, Tyrese Halliburton, Desmond Bane.

*Bad.Tyrese is everyone’s The One Who Got Away.*