Game 75: GSW at DEN, 7:00pm PT
into the tough altitude, still no Steph
GAME DETAILS
WHO: Golden State Warriors at Denver Nuggets
WHEN: Sunday, March 29th, 2026; 7:00pm PDT
WATCH: NBC, Peacock, NBCSBA
APRIBOT analyzes this game
Long time readers know that APRIBOT is my projection system. She runs on my humble computer and does not run on LLM AIs. I admit any mistakes she makes are my fault, so could she please stop messing with my thermostat.
She thinks GSW have a 25% chance of winning! Seems about right. DEN has been a lot better in Recent games (about the last 15 games) and GSW is flying a long way for this road game.
APRIBOT does not use arena dependent home court advantage (yes yes, it’s my fault, please don’t tamper with my retirement portfolio), so this underestimates the known heavier advantage DEN gets against teams adjusting to the altitude.
GSW still has no Steph Curry, so GSW is not going to be better than their Recent string of play. On the other hand, Kristaps Porzingis is getting into game shape and Gui Santos continues to thrive. So the winning chances are not zero, but APRIBOT thinks GSW are 9 point underdogs.
DEN will be trying their hardest since they are in a close struggle where a push could get them the #3 seed and a bad day could drop them to the #6 seed. GSW is pushing too, with APRIBOT estimating a 10% chance at #8, 29% chance at #9 and 61% chance at #10. Getting to #8 would more or less double their chances of getting into the playoffs.
Some people have been calling for GSW to tank the rest of the season. The only way to do that would be to hold Steph out for longer than medically necessary. By holding Steph out, you get a natural tank where GSW is on track to suffer a play-in loss and probably score the #11 (9.4% chance of Top 4) or #12 lottery seed (7.1% chance of Top 4).
I personally don’t believe in tanking, though of course I understand the game theoretical reasons for it. It’s bad for team spirit, habits and character. It also seems like a bad idea since (1) we want to audition how Steph and Kristaps play together before deciding to re-sign him and (2) Steph deserves a shot to make some memorable plays in the playoffs this year. It’s quite likely that GSW will lose anyway, with a rusty Steph who isn’t optimized to play with KP, so why not try your best? That’s what sports is about.
Let’s Go Dubs!