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Eric Apricot's avatar

The whole “not including Jimmy in a deal” thing is peculiar, but if true, it would be because MIL didn’t want him. I really think GSW’s bargaining position right now is “we will trade anything legal that doesn’t include Steph, just tell us what you want”.

From previous analysis (applying the very scientific Apricot Rule of Trade Masochism) I could not come up with a legal deal to get Giannis that I wouldn’t agree to, so I conclude that a direct deal isn’t enough for MIL. (I know DNHQ here on the whole seems capped out around three picks and one good young guy, but I’m in way beyond that and I expect GSW is too.)

The reports of POR getting into the mix can only help GSW, because if POR can be convinced to give MIL back the MIL pick swaps, then MIL can properly tank. I’m not sure what GSW could give POR to do that, but that’s a way for GSW to pump more resources to MIL.

I said before that MIL will probably wait until summer, but I suspect they won’t get as good a deal as they will from GSW right now simply because they will never get a more willing and desperate trade partner who is also almost guaranteed to get a lot worse when Steph retires in the next 5 years . Stuff happens and if Giannis gets another injury (or much worse, Steph gets a major injury), MIL would lose a lot of their leverage.

Loon Gehrig's avatar

I think the Warriors believe they only have the best offer if they blow away Milwaukee with a Godfather proposal in the next 5 days. But (IMO, I know there have been reports to the contrary) I'm not sure they pivot so quickly this time to AD or whoever. I think they really want to give 100% on Giannis, even in the summer, unless he rules them out, which I hope he would decide on over the weekend, although KD practically waited until the very last second to say no to GSW.

BayesGT's avatar
44mEdited

Having Giannis, Steph, and Jimmy would give you 3 of the 15 best players in the league by EPM… that’s probably worth selling the farm for. And then you just hope for good health, and Jimmy coming back well from an ACL

Lightsx3's avatar

Giannis would also have more leverage in the summer as he only has 1 year left. If he says he'll only go to Miami and won't re-sign anywhere else Bucks won't get nearly as much back than now

Eric Apricot's avatar

True, though I think there is already implicit leverage there that Giannis can veto a trade by saying he won’t re-sign. This presumably has already been discussed through backchannels.

Also, just missing out on having Giannis for the 2026 playoff run would reduce his trade value a little.

WCoastD's avatar

Word I heard is it’s a significant reduction for the Bucks - Giannis on expiring and he gets more say in where he goes. If MIL wants picks above all, this is the time for them to strike. I hate that GSW has this bravado- high roller mentality that puts everything on pause and is proving not to net what they envision (fantasize) it does.

NoOneEverGotFired4GuardinSteph's avatar

Ok, lots of Giannis talk, but can we talk about Steph's knee? Is this concerning? If anything happens to Steph our pick is absolutely a lottery pick

Abaddon's avatar

Kerr was asked about it postgame and said that he didn't think it was a big concern. With three whole days off hopefully he can get right.

Mr Teal's avatar

Inclding Dray in a Giannis deal hurts playoff chances this year for sure...but increases chances next year by more. So... I think I'm for it.

Loon Gehrig's avatar

[sorry to post so much, BUT GIANNIS]

Some Draymond deals to get 1st(s) so we can trade more post-Curry picks (not saying this is necessarily a great idea, BUT GIANNIS):

- crazy level of ALL-IN (TM) - take on a truly terrible contract to try and get 2 picks (probably involving a 3rd team): Dray for Patrick Williams or Jakob Poetl for a 1st and 5 2nds (which we could hopefully use to get a 1st from another team)

- Dray to Detroit for a 1st, Caris LeVert and 2 minimum contracts

- Dray (+ Buddy?) for Jerami Grant and a 1st

Maybe the Bucks would also want multiple 2026 1sts (to trade up for another lottery pick)?

In that case we could try a lot of different scenarios, since those might be a lot cheaper (since we could trade for picks that are known to probably fall in a certain range).

AJ's avatar

Maybe I'm wrong but I just don't see teams giving up 1sts for Draymond.

Loon Gehrig's avatar

Only to either get off a really, really bad contract or upgrade their defense and get off of a somewhat bad contract/unwanted player. You're right, though, the Portland one might be stretch (although Grant has a 27-28 option)

I might see Detroit giving up a 1st for a Michigan native who could really boost their playoff defense (although they do need offense). It might actually fall into the 2nd category (an extra 2026). LeVert is on the trading block.

BayesGT's avatar

FWIW checked the trade machine and the below does work salary-wise:

Por: Dray + Buddy

Bucks: JK + Grant

GSW: Giannis

Work the picks however you like, we need to sign a couple players, and portland and the bucks need to waive one

Loon Gehrig's avatar

"The Stein Line has learned that Portland has also expressed its own interest to the Bucks that it would like to acquire Giannis Antetokounmpo ... even as the Blazers realistically understand that it would be an extreme longshot to convince Giannis to sign a contract extension that keeps him in the Pacific Northwest. The far more likely scenario remains Portland participating in such a deal as a facilitator to snag an impact veteran (or two) as part of a multi-team trade structure."

https://www.hoopshype.com/story/sports/nba/rumors/2026/01/31/blazers-eyeing-giannis-antetokounmpo/88450571007/

[they have at least a 2030 swap with the Bucks]

Edit (IMO, not Stein's): the scenario that's been brought up the most is Bridges to the Blazers, some picks to Milwaukee, Giannis to the Knicks. I'm not sure how the Warriors would make a similar deal.

Patrick Murray's avatar

I mean pretty clear landing spot for Dray, no? Pairing with Dame and their young core next season and they could be pretty feisty.

Loon Gehrig's avatar

Dray for Grant and 1st (but not the Milwaukee one), I guess?

Patrick Murray's avatar

The Blazers have swap rights to Milwaukees picks in 28 and 30 and then their pick in 29 but they’ve done a weird swap with Washington also involving a Celtics pick.

Basically the Bucks would reroute Dray to the Blazers and get one (or two) of those swapped picks back alongside with expiring (Thybulle and Timelord match the salary). That makes any deal much more palatable as they will have the following in picks

26 worse of theirs or the Pels (still going to be top half of the lottery

26 Warriors

27 no pick

28 their own pick back from Portland

28 Warriors

29 can they get the worst of the three picks the Blazers have? (was/ por/ bos)

30 Warriors pick if it’s in top 20

31 swap rights to the Warriors pick

32 Warriors pick

As for the actual trade no Jimmy means the Warriors have to add Moody and Buddy’s effective expiring alongside JK, Podz and rerouted Dray.

That is very pricey but the flip side is there’s not enough matching salary to dump Kuzma so you might be able to persuade them to give up Bobby Portis who has three years left on a more reasonable deal.

Bucks get much more salary relief both next year without having to take Butler, and longer term salary relief from getting off Portis. They get the whole shebang from the Warriors - JK, Podz and Moody.

It is an absolute fucking robbery but the Warriors are in a bind because they need to do it now or Miami in particular will outbid them in the summer when they will have four trade able picks, not two as they have now. Others will get involved too.

So yeah a lot to swallow but the Warriors would have

Steph

Melton if they can convince him to stick around

Butler (midseason)

Giannis

Post

Some back up PG (currently that mofo Pat)

Richard

Some back up wing (currently GP2)

Portis

Horford

Gui

Thanasis (no way he’s not in the trade!)

Basically you’d have to be confident you can get some ring chasers for depth but with Steph, Jimmy and Giannis in the fold that’s not impossible.

The alternative path is to balk at including someone like Moody, fumble at the 5-yard line.

Ultimately you’re betting on jimmy coming back better than Draymond holding up. Which tbh is a bet I might take.

Patrick Murray's avatar

Actually if they can get a pick back in 29, even if it’s low down then they can get another swap from the Warriors. The problem they have is they traded so many picks they can’t swap ones they already traded away. Which of course is where we’d be in a few years so Rick Celebrini might need a raise!

Sabiscrashingout.'s avatar

I don't think the Warriors will want Draymond in the West if they can help it.

Patrick Murray's avatar

Totally agree. Angry Dray 4 times a year would not be fun. But if it’s that or no Giannis they’ll do it!

Chadara's avatar

Very fun for me to watch an angry Draymond 4 times a year while he plays for GSW!

Sabiscrashingout.'s avatar

🎢

r/nba

nba-1

51m ago

YujiDomainExpansion

r/nba

[Stein/Fischer] The Golden State Warriors’ package for Giannis Antetokounmpo is unlikely to include Jimmy Butler.

https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/1qs782n/steinfischer_the_golden_state_warriors_package/

vignette17's avatar

Dray has a player option at the end of this year. So if no one wants him? He can come back for a final dance next year if he sacrifices money. The oops all old guys lineup with Lebron, Dray, Khris Middleton (Giannis connection!) all signing for mins will be fun.

TwoRingTest's avatar

Honestly, that's the best news I've heard on this rumored trade so far.

If we are going to just go for it, Steph/Giannis/JB can be a contender next year. Not sure Steph/Giannis/Dray can be. Dray's defense is still very good, but Giannis/Horford can fill a lot of the rim protector role. And Dray's passing has fallen off so badly this year, he's probably either negative, or at best, slightly positive on that end. Butler's better in that ball-handler role.

Also, I think it would open some time up for Gui and that's not a bad thing, either.

DFiB's avatar

Ummmm… interesting… I guess Dray gets routed to a contender or something?

Sabiscrashingout.'s avatar

That's my thinking.

Sleepy Freud's avatar

Welp, so much for my trading for PG13 concept…

Mr Teal's avatar

I mean...if the concept was 'no f'n way do we want PG13!' ... then I think the concept is still very much in play.

GlueAndBold's avatar

R is so much better anyway.

Loon Gehrig's avatar

I prefer G(iannis), personally

Sleepy Freud's avatar

Is G still a thing? It’s been so long since I’ve paid attention to movie ratings, but when I think G, I think like, Babe and The Muppet Movie (both classics, of course…)

Loon Gehrig's avatar

even disney seems to have shifted to PG (like Zootopia). I think some British stuff (like Wallace and Gromit) is still G (I always thought it was crazy that a movie like Chicken Run was rated G, though, considering it was basically The Great Escape with chickens)

GlueAndBold's avatar

I’ve gone dark. Give me the R rated muppets.

TwoRingTest's avatar

rehab, schmeehab

tempprofile's avatar

It's been over 24 hours since Giannis indicated he was open to a trade and he still isn't in Warriors street clothes. Butler + a pick swap ought to be plenty. Fire MDJ!

TwoRingTest's avatar

I thought we fired him yesterday?

Loon Gehrig's avatar

If Dray is on the table, we might be able to beat a few offers by adding another of our picks in. Would the Pistons be willing to give up their 2027 1st (99% chance of it being in the 25-29 range) for Dray in a Giannis trade? (the salary-matching would be a problem, though, but maybe not in a 4 or 5-team trade) This would let us trade our 2027 pick also. Of course, a 2031 Pistons 1st would be ideal (so we could trade another post-Curry pick), but they probably wouldn't want to go that far in the future.

WCoastD's avatar

Draymond would be really important here with a Giannis addition, esp in postseason. He is not easily replaced.

tempprofile's avatar

Don't think the Pistons need Green as Tobias Harris is playing pretty well for them.

Loon Gehrig's avatar

yeah, they need more shooting (although having another great defender is always a plus in the playoffs, which is why I hope the Warriors keep Dray, even though he's annoying). There is a chance the Harris can't agree on a contract with Detroit and leaves in the off-season. I think Dray would definitely opt in to stay with the Pistons (or even negotiate a cheaper extension to stay in Michigan)

Sabiscrashingout.'s avatar

Shams Charania

Just In: The NBA has suspended Philadelphia 76ers' Paul George for 25 games for violating the league's anti-drug policy.

Sabiscrashingout.'s avatar

[Charania] Statement from 76ers’ Paul George to ESPN:

Statement from 76ers' Paul George to ESPN: “Over the past few years, I’ve discussed the importance of mental health, and in the course of recently seeking treatment for an issue of my own, I made the mistake of taking an improper medication. I take full responsibility for my actions and apologize to the Sixers organization, my teammates and the Philly fans for my poor decision making during this process

WCoastD's avatar
15mEdited

So, he violated their drug policy but if it was “performance-enhancing” drugs, that would be stated. It could’ve been a psychedelic, could’ve been MDMA for trauma. Likely nothing that affects the integrity of the sport - WHILE THE LEAGUE PUSHES GAMBLING AND THE BETTING SCANDALS CONTINUE THEIR SLOW DRIP. Ok, I’m done.

DFiB's avatar

A surprisingly refreshing non-denial!

Goofus's avatar

>>> The suspension will cost George — a nine-time All-Star — roughly $11.7 million of his $51.7 million salary, or about $469,691.72 for each of the 25 games missed.

…plus whatever he paid for da dope.

TwoRingTest's avatar

oof.

Bullet dodged.

Loon Gehrig's avatar

PG13 suspended 25 games!

Sabiscrashingout.'s avatar

Steph looks to be mentally winding down on the promotional part of his job.

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DUJZg-WiWm1/

Bel's avatar

That is an old clip from at least a year ago.

Sabiscrashingout.'s avatar

Are we sure about that?

GlueAndBold's avatar

There’s something kind of sad about that clip

Sabiscrashingout.'s avatar

Yeah. It's difficult not to internalize it even though he could just be tired.

cannothoop's avatar

shout out to Doris during the game for saying the "physicality" "may be crossing a line." she couched it as Steph raised it and it sometimes, seems, blah, blah, but the point was clear - dude is getting mauled.

ananthd's avatar
15hEdited

I wish Gui plays more. That's all.

Nellie's avatar

62% true shooting; maniacal effort; rebounding; genuine NBA size; good feel for the motion offense… I get that he’s a low usage guy who can get exposed against opposing teams’ front lines, but still. Those are the makings of a really good role player. If we make a big trade he’ll presumably play more, and I’m kinda excited about it.

GlueAndBold's avatar

He plays with force, as Coach Kerr would say

fzwinter's avatar

Pistons now only 2 games behind OKC for best record in the NBA

NoOneEverGotFired4GuardinSteph's avatar

Oh wow, I've been asleep for a month - so there are two teams that are definitely going to break the 2016 Warriors record?