OT: Rams having their punt blocked actually saved them... If they just have a normal punt, Panthers drive takes more time instead of leaving Rams all that time to score back
[about Ja?] Finally, let’s talk about one deep dark horse: Brooklyn. With one trusted league source telling me that Michael Porter Jr. is a lock to move by the deadline so the Nets can sell high on his career year, it makes sense for the Nets to figure out who will be the centerpiece of their franchise a year from now. Remember, Brooklyn owes a pick swap to Houston in 2027 and thus has no incentive to tank next season. They need some players."
[interesting part isn't really about Morant, it's the fact that the Nets need to upgrade fast and exit tank mode by the start of next season]
I have been building up a conspiracy theory in my head for a while now.
We have three teams, the Warriors/Kings/Nets.
The Warriors desperately want to get MPJ. The Nets want value for MPJ and almost certainly going to move him. The Kings want to get off the Monk contract while getting back some value, even if its lesser, that gives them cap flexibility. The Warriors/Nets already have a positive working relationship. The Warriors/Kings already discussed a Kuminga trade this offseason. The Warriors have been sitting Kuminga. The Kings have been sitting Monk.
I believe a three team trade is already in its final touches . . .
Nets: They receive Kuminga/Monk/Hield/2 Warriors First Round Picks. Kuminga is a cost controlled asset they can trade/see if he can generate value on a team that lets him loose. Monk is someone who with more minutes, can easily recoup value and be traded in the future. I think the Nets would want him more than Moody whose a solid player but little tradeable upside. Hield is trade ballast. Plus they get two first round picks. They're very happy.
Warriors: MPJ. We've already salivated over him enough. Moving forward
Kings: They receive Moses Moody who is a cost controlled SF that fits alongside Lavine/Derozan taking on the harder defensive tasks while spacing the floor. He has upside opportunity while not risking their tank.
Seems plausible for sure. Feels like the devil will be in the details - any protections on the picks? Do the Nets try to trade for a pick in the early 2030s when the Warriors may well be terrible?
Much as I would rather not give up two picks (especially for a guy with a history of back problems and one year left on his deal), I kind of like that trade. Do the salaries work?
Last night, the Warriors posted the second highest offensive efficiency in all of NBA history for any team with 39 or more assists and 14 or fewer free throw attempts: https://www.sports-reference.com/stathead/tiny/nnDRw
highest offensive efficiency = most points score per offensive possession
148.1 = the Warriors offensive efficiency last night = 1.481 points scored per offensive possession (the highest in any game in Warriors franchise history)
Limiting it to teams that also had 39 or more assists and 14 or fewer free throw attempts = my strained attempt to make this somewhat historic among all NBA games ever played rather than just the highest mark in Warriors' franchise history
Since offensive rating started getting tracked in the 1973-74 season, last night's game marked the 9th highest offensive rating by any team with 39 or more assists: https://www.sports-reference.com/stathead/tiny/5vLS5
Dr. Ian Malcolm: Eric, the kind of control you're attempting simply is... it's not possible. If there is one thing the history of evolution has taught us it's that life will not be contained. Life breaks free, it expands to new territories and crashes through barriers, painfully, maybe even dangerously, but, uh... well, there it is.
Eric: You're implying that a group composed entirely of Dubs fans will... read?
Dr. Ian Malcolm: No. I'm, I'm simply saying that life, uh... finds a KLAY!
I really like what we’re seeing from Melton, but I’m not so sure about re-upping for a pricey multi-year deal (and as folks wrote below, that seems almost impossible). The injury problems are a massive risk and that’s not going away. On the other hand - maybe the rest of the league sees this, too. If the market for him is weak and we can keep him (by necessity on a low contract), I’m in. Prediction: he gets injured again this season, that tanks his market value, and comes back next year.
Would keeping Kuminga the rest of the season, then letting him walk make room for keeping Melton and Post next season? I think if I had to choose between someone uninspiring like Monk or positioning ourselves for keeping those guys, I’d probably choose the latter.
IMHO Steph, Dray, and Jimmy are old enough that we should not be thinking long term at all. For all we know this is the last season they will be able to do it. So I don't agree with your unstated premise that it is ok to wait for next year.
Of course I don't know what moves are possible so it is hard to make even an educated guess at how much the team could improve (or how you would even measure that short of W-L), but, based on results so far, an improvement of 2 or 3 points in the Warriors favor, if we could apply it retroactively, would result in us possibly being in a 5-way tie for 3rd place right now.
Too late for that, of course, but if we can make a trade that wins us few more of those close ones, and fight our way to 6th or above we have a puncher's chance at ring #5 in the Curry era.
What happens with Melton or Post or the rest of the roster next season may or may not even matter, so that calculation of how to have a better roster next season has a huge opportunity cost AND may not even result in any benefit
Assuming/hoping it does matter, of course, still doesn't mean we shouldn't optimize our chances for this season as much as possible. What you are suggesting feels to me like basically throwing in the towel on this season and we don't have enough seasons left to be able to afford that (again, IMHO).
My unstated premise is not wait until next year but rather not thinking dumping Kuminga for a marginal player on a bad contract that makes us worse next year (like Monk, another guard) doesn’t make sense.
Well that's fair, but do you have any reason to worry about that? Not that we get much info, but reading the tea leaves it looks like the front office agrees with you.
I’ve heard media types saying what a disaster it will be if Kuminga is on the roster after the deadline and the Warriors are blowing smoke when they say they’d be willing to keep him. I’m just saying I can see reasons why they wouldn’t want trade out of desperation, such as marginal additions with bleh contracts.
Like we talked about below, buying him out at a tiny discount would create a roster spot for Spencer without having to get rid of Seth. That and more flexibility going into next season aren’t nothing. (I’m a big believer in Steph being a valuable weapon well-beyond this season.)
If he doesn't get traded, I do not see them buying him out just to roster Spencer. Once the off season is here there will be a lot more possibilities for getting *something* for Kuminga compared to the limited in-season possibilities. It doesn't make sense to buy him out. Pretty confident they'd cut Seth before doing that.
So, depends a bit on what you mean. Walking away from JK does not get us below the cap, so it doesn't open that route to offer Melton more money.
It does give us some headroom under the 2nd apron, so if that's what you mean, then yes.
Melton is likely gone, TBH. AFAIK, our only viable routes to resign him are the 20% raise we are allowed (as an exception), or the TPMLE (exception).
Cutting JK and doing nothing else might get us to the NTPMLE, which might allow us to sign Melton to more money. I think that's pretty unlikely, since we also need to sign Post, and there are raises built in to the existing contracts.
Post is a little different, but also problematic. IIRC, we have limited Bird rights, since we didn't sign him to the 4 year deal as a 2nd rounder. We went through this calculation before, and IIRC, we can only offer him up to $11-$12 mil a year.
There is some chance we lose him, too (though if his shooting doesn't improve, probably not).
I wouldn’t be so sure. I could see him signing a one+one with a player option, for example. I think the team has built up goodwill with how they’ve worked with him and other teams might want a longer track record of health before throwing a fat guaranteed contract his way.
It doesn't need to be loads of guaranteed money. If another decent team offers 1+1 with $2M more guaranteed in total, why would he choose us? Houston could probably do that, for example.
Sounds like he likes the team, from all the stories being told by him and others about when he was traded. Sounds like everyone wanted a reunion and the was just salary mechanics with absolutely no hard feelings.
If Melton continues to show he can be what we hoped, I am okay with running out of Pat games. I am not as gung-ho about Pat as some here. I like him as a 3rd PG, not as the main backup.
I don’t think Pat’s all that, but do think he should on the roster.
I think the goal is get Melton worked up to the starting 2 as the best pairing alongside Steph. That leaves Podz as the backup PG and you still kinda need a 3rd PG. I guess Seth could do a little bit of playmaking with Jimmy and Draymond’s help.
Good point. Pat does add ball handling and helps steady the offense, and we need that sometimes. I'd trust him over Seth as a playmaker, and I think he's a better defender. Seth's best role (if he gets healthy) is as a microwave scorer off the bench.
>>> The problem with the latter is it means this is the roster we have the rest of this season… I’m sure you know that, but needs to be said.
Right, that’s what I was meant. I’d rather stand pat and keep guys next year than add Monk’s marginal help to the mix. It’s limited data, but I’m liking the look of the team now that they are who we thought they were (minus Seth).
(Also means no recourse for running out of Pat games, or signing any of the two-ways / g-leaguers for the playoffs).
Would buying JK out at something a little less than what he’s owed create room to hire Spencer?
A buyout is definitely an interesting plan B to me, but I don’t know enough about how that works to know how attractive or not it is.
If the best we can do is Monk, that’s not very exciting to me.
I just googled his contract and it’s actually a “yikes” for me; four year deal fully guaranteed with a player option. I can’t see us wanting to take that on for an older guard dependent on his athleticism.
I don't think a buyout is likely at all if it's just to sign Spencer for that playoffs. If we had to hold onto him for this season, the front office would figure *something* out in the off-season when there are more possibilities available than in-season.
To be clear, my idea would be to roster Spencer /and/ presumably give them more space under the 2nd apron to retain guys like Melton, Post and fit in Podz’ RFAdom in the offseason.
I love Moses, but watching him try to attack the rookie center, try to drive left, and then awkwardly scoop it up with his right into an easy block was uninspiring. He’s always gonna be a right handed only guy, and he’s never gonna have a dribble game, his nasty cross on Ellis notwithstanding.
I like him, but he still doesn’t process the game well enough on offense or know how to compensate for his slower foot speed on defense for me to want to keep him. Particularly since his shooting mechanics probably put a hard ceiling on his ability to ever develop a threatening movement shooting ability.
I was upset when it was 84-84 and we just kept scuffling every time we pushed the lead to 6 or 7… then Melton happened. That’s two straight scoring outbursts from him. Noice.
OT: Rams having their punt blocked actually saved them... If they just have a normal punt, Panthers drive takes more time instead of leaving Rams all that time to score back
(from Athletic via r/nba):
"Michael Porter Jr. is a “lock” to be moved by the trade deadline."
"Source: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6959490/2026/01/10/ja-morant-trade-market-grizzlies-clippers-timberwolves/?source=user_shared_article
[about Ja?] Finally, let’s talk about one deep dark horse: Brooklyn. With one trusted league source telling me that Michael Porter Jr. is a lock to move by the deadline so the Nets can sell high on his career year, it makes sense for the Nets to figure out who will be the centerpiece of their franchise a year from now. Remember, Brooklyn owes a pick swap to Houston in 2027 and thus has no incentive to tank next season. They need some players."
[interesting part isn't really about Morant, it's the fact that the Nets need to upgrade fast and exit tank mode by the start of next season]
I have been building up a conspiracy theory in my head for a while now.
We have three teams, the Warriors/Kings/Nets.
The Warriors desperately want to get MPJ. The Nets want value for MPJ and almost certainly going to move him. The Kings want to get off the Monk contract while getting back some value, even if its lesser, that gives them cap flexibility. The Warriors/Nets already have a positive working relationship. The Warriors/Kings already discussed a Kuminga trade this offseason. The Warriors have been sitting Kuminga. The Kings have been sitting Monk.
I believe a three team trade is already in its final touches . . .
Nets: They receive Kuminga/Monk/Hield/2 Warriors First Round Picks. Kuminga is a cost controlled asset they can trade/see if he can generate value on a team that lets him loose. Monk is someone who with more minutes, can easily recoup value and be traded in the future. I think the Nets would want him more than Moody whose a solid player but little tradeable upside. Hield is trade ballast. Plus they get two first round picks. They're very happy.
Warriors: MPJ. We've already salivated over him enough. Moving forward
Kings: They receive Moses Moody who is a cost controlled SF that fits alongside Lavine/Derozan taking on the harder defensive tasks while spacing the floor. He has upside opportunity while not risking their tank.
I don't know about these particulars but it seems like a Nets-Kings-Warriors deal could benefit all parties involved
You need more than just MPJ back for that package imo, regardless of the requirement to get back to 14 rostered players
Seems plausible for sure. Feels like the devil will be in the details - any protections on the picks? Do the Nets try to trade for a pick in the early 2030s when the Warriors may well be terrible?
Much as I would rather not give up two picks (especially for a guy with a history of back problems and one year left on his deal), I kind of like that trade. Do the salaries work?
Salaries work, but the Nets would need to waive two players and the warriors would need to sign at least one
We'd convert Pat to a regular deal to fill that hole.
I'm watching the same thing Steph's watching rn.
Timberwolves lost to the Cavs!!
Now, let’s have Detroit beat the Clippers!
Not that important. Better to spend your rooting energy against the teams ahead of us
You want as much separation as possible because we could lose the next five games and the Clips could win their next five games.
The Clips have dug themselves a deep hole but they've won 7 of their last 10, so I'd be pleased if Detroit stomps 'em.
Hard to sweep those back-to-backs against the same team.
“A surprise to be sure, but a welcome one.”
Last night, the Warriors posted the second highest offensive efficiency in all of NBA history for any team with 39 or more assists and 14 or fewer free throw attempts: https://www.sports-reference.com/stathead/tiny/nnDRw
What does that even mean?
highest offensive efficiency = most points score per offensive possession
148.1 = the Warriors offensive efficiency last night = 1.481 points scored per offensive possession (the highest in any game in Warriors franchise history)
Limiting it to teams that also had 39 or more assists and 14 or fewer free throw attempts = my strained attempt to make this somewhat historic among all NBA games ever played rather than just the highest mark in Warriors' franchise history
It was also the 7th best offensive efficiency in NBA history for any team with 15 or fewer free throw attempts: https://www.sports-reference.com/stathead/tiny/pPAja
Last night, the Warriors set a new franchise record for offensive efficiency in a game (at least since this stat started to get tracked in 1973-74): https://www.sports-reference.com/stathead/tiny/Lr6oF
Since offensive rating started getting tracked in the 1973-74 season, last night's game marked the 9th highest offensive rating by any team with 39 or more assists: https://www.sports-reference.com/stathead/tiny/5vLS5
Since offensive rating started getting tracked in the 1973-74 season, last night's game marked the 35th highest offensive rating by any team in any game: https://www.sports-reference.com/stathead/tiny/b7ID4
Diehard Dub Fan Dino, looking through the fence for a month, trying to make a dollar out of 99 sense....Way to go DUBS!
Dr. Ian Malcolm: Eric, the kind of control you're attempting simply is... it's not possible. If there is one thing the history of evolution has taught us it's that life will not be contained. Life breaks free, it expands to new territories and crashes through barriers, painfully, maybe even dangerously, but, uh... well, there it is.
Eric: You're implying that a group composed entirely of Dubs fans will... read?
Dr. Ian Malcolm: No. I'm, I'm simply saying that life, uh... finds a KLAY!
Welcome back!
Welcome back, Dino!
https://makeagif.com/gif/jurassic-park-1010-movie-clip-when-dinosaurs-ruled-the-earth-1993-hd-zfK7Zk
You made my day, Dino!
Welcome back mate
WELCOME BACK DINO!!!
riding hot into the trade season
Dino! Missed you, dude.
Welcome back, man.
I really like what we’re seeing from Melton, but I’m not so sure about re-upping for a pricey multi-year deal (and as folks wrote below, that seems almost impossible). The injury problems are a massive risk and that’s not going away. On the other hand - maybe the rest of the league sees this, too. If the market for him is weak and we can keep him (by necessity on a low contract), I’m in. Prediction: he gets injured again this season, that tanks his market value, and comes back next year.
I just hope that someday, someone believes in me the way that you believe in Melton
Question for the capologists:
Would keeping Kuminga the rest of the season, then letting him walk make room for keeping Melton and Post next season? I think if I had to choose between someone uninspiring like Monk or positioning ourselves for keeping those guys, I’d probably choose the latter.
IMHO Steph, Dray, and Jimmy are old enough that we should not be thinking long term at all. For all we know this is the last season they will be able to do it. So I don't agree with your unstated premise that it is ok to wait for next year.
Of course I don't know what moves are possible so it is hard to make even an educated guess at how much the team could improve (or how you would even measure that short of W-L), but, based on results so far, an improvement of 2 or 3 points in the Warriors favor, if we could apply it retroactively, would result in us possibly being in a 5-way tie for 3rd place right now.
Too late for that, of course, but if we can make a trade that wins us few more of those close ones, and fight our way to 6th or above we have a puncher's chance at ring #5 in the Curry era.
What happens with Melton or Post or the rest of the roster next season may or may not even matter, so that calculation of how to have a better roster next season has a huge opportunity cost AND may not even result in any benefit
Assuming/hoping it does matter, of course, still doesn't mean we shouldn't optimize our chances for this season as much as possible. What you are suggesting feels to me like basically throwing in the towel on this season and we don't have enough seasons left to be able to afford that (again, IMHO).
My unstated premise is not wait until next year but rather not thinking dumping Kuminga for a marginal player on a bad contract that makes us worse next year (like Monk, another guard) doesn’t make sense.
I’d do it for someone like Jerami Grant.
Well that's fair, but do you have any reason to worry about that? Not that we get much info, but reading the tea leaves it looks like the front office agrees with you.
I’ve heard media types saying what a disaster it will be if Kuminga is on the roster after the deadline and the Warriors are blowing smoke when they say they’d be willing to keep him. I’m just saying I can see reasons why they wouldn’t want trade out of desperation, such as marginal additions with bleh contracts.
Like we talked about below, buying him out at a tiny discount would create a roster spot for Spencer without having to get rid of Seth. That and more flexibility going into next season aren’t nothing. (I’m a big believer in Steph being a valuable weapon well-beyond this season.)
If he doesn't get traded, I do not see them buying him out just to roster Spencer. Once the off season is here there will be a lot more possibilities for getting *something* for Kuminga compared to the limited in-season possibilities. It doesn't make sense to buy him out. Pretty confident they'd cut Seth before doing that.
We are currently $52 million above the cap, per Perks spreadsheet:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aSo_Ni5pqrs6E9PbCZgfGKzq5qjklm60h6Ykw3lYSxE/edit?gid=1573241114#gid=1573241114
So, depends a bit on what you mean. Walking away from JK does not get us below the cap, so it doesn't open that route to offer Melton more money.
It does give us some headroom under the 2nd apron, so if that's what you mean, then yes.
Melton is likely gone, TBH. AFAIK, our only viable routes to resign him are the 20% raise we are allowed (as an exception), or the TPMLE (exception).
Cutting JK and doing nothing else might get us to the NTPMLE, which might allow us to sign Melton to more money. I think that's pretty unlikely, since we also need to sign Post, and there are raises built in to the existing contracts.
Post is a little different, but also problematic. IIRC, we have limited Bird rights, since we didn't sign him to the 4 year deal as a 2nd rounder. We went through this calculation before, and IIRC, we can only offer him up to $11-$12 mil a year.
There is some chance we lose him, too (though if his shooting doesn't improve, probably not).
> Melton is likely gone
I wouldn’t be so sure. I could see him signing a one+one with a player option, for example. I think the team has built up goodwill with how they’ve worked with him and other teams might want a longer track record of health before throwing a fat guaranteed contract his way.
A guy coming back from not one, but two injury rehabs?
Let's just say I think he'll go for the money.
> a guy coming back ce not one, but two injury rehabs?
Gee, when you say it like that, I can see why teams would be lining up to throw him loads of guaranteed money! /s
It doesn't need to be loads of guaranteed money. If another decent team offers 1+1 with $2M more guaranteed in total, why would he choose us? Houston could probably do that, for example.
Thanks, I was referring to the 2nd apron.
I think the real problem is going to be finding legal ways to match other offers, TBH.
But I like Melton...
Sounds like he likes the team, from all the stories being told by him and others about when he was traded. Sounds like everyone wanted a reunion and the was just salary mechanics with absolutely no hard feelings.
The problem with the latter is it means this is the roster we have the rest of this season… I’m sure you know that, but needs to be said.
(Also means no recourse for running out of Pat games, or signing any of the two-ways / g-leaguers for the playoffs).
If Melton continues to show he can be what we hoped, I am okay with running out of Pat games. I am not as gung-ho about Pat as some here. I like him as a 3rd PG, not as the main backup.
I don’t think Pat’s all that, but do think he should on the roster.
I think the goal is get Melton worked up to the starting 2 as the best pairing alongside Steph. That leaves Podz as the backup PG and you still kinda need a 3rd PG. I guess Seth could do a little bit of playmaking with Jimmy and Draymond’s help.
Good point. Pat does add ball handling and helps steady the offense, and we need that sometimes. I'd trust him over Seth as a playmaker, and I think he's a better defender. Seth's best role (if he gets healthy) is as a microwave scorer off the bench.
>>> The problem with the latter is it means this is the roster we have the rest of this season… I’m sure you know that, but needs to be said.
Right, that’s what I was meant. I’d rather stand pat and keep guys next year than add Monk’s marginal help to the mix. It’s limited data, but I’m liking the look of the team now that they are who we thought they were (minus Seth).
(Also means no recourse for running out of Pat games, or signing any of the two-ways / g-leaguers for the playoffs).
Would buying JK out at something a little less than what he’s owed create room to hire Spencer?
That's a pretty interesting idea, but:
I can't see the team doing a buyout because JK's contract is the one big tradeable contract they have (assuming they won't move Green).
They would need that contract in the offseason to get a $30 mil/$40 mil guy for next season.
A buyout is definitely an interesting plan B to me, but I don’t know enough about how that works to know how attractive or not it is.
If the best we can do is Monk, that’s not very exciting to me.
I just googled his contract and it’s actually a “yikes” for me; four year deal fully guaranteed with a player option. I can’t see us wanting to take that on for an older guard dependent on his athleticism.
I don't think a buyout is likely at all if it's just to sign Spencer for that playoffs. If we had to hold onto him for this season, the front office would figure *something* out in the off-season when there are more possibilities available than in-season.
To be clear, my idea would be to roster Spencer /and/ presumably give them more space under the 2nd apron to retain guys like Melton, Post and fit in Podz’ RFAdom in the offseason.
JK's salary doesn't impact what we can offer Melton and Post
Can't they just waive him?
If a team doesn't pick him off the waivers, he becomes a free agent and the Warriors are on the hook for his entire contract.
Oh okay. Thank you.
I love Moses, but watching him try to attack the rookie center, try to drive left, and then awkwardly scoop it up with his right into an easy block was uninspiring. He’s always gonna be a right handed only guy, and he’s never gonna have a dribble game, his nasty cross on Ellis notwithstanding.
I like him, but he still doesn’t process the game well enough on offense or know how to compensate for his slower foot speed on defense for me to want to keep him. Particularly since his shooting mechanics probably put a hard ceiling on his ability to ever develop a threatening movement shooting ability.
I was upset when it was 84-84 and we just kept scuffling every time we pushed the lead to 6 or 7… then Melton happened. That’s two straight scoring outbursts from him. Noice.
Noice is my thing...
Just realized the last time we had a Porter Jr on the roster we won a championship…
*Wilt Jr.
OMG! Maybe if we can't get MPJ, we should try and get KPJ? Don't want Craig Porter Jr though.
OPJ!
Things feel good right now. I’m enjoying it. I think I trust the Dubs a little more than I trust the 49ers right now.
nervous like hell about that game - but have very low expectations!!!
It's kind of expected 49ers will lose with how much of the defense is out. But if they happen to embarrass Philly, great!
Probably going to end up JK for DeRozan mostly straight-up, depending on fillers.
Rather they not pick up JK's option if that is the return he gets.
Don't think the Dubs have any interest in DeRozan
And I think he’s talked about Draymond recruiting him a couple of summers ago and he chose to pass on joining?
And I think he’s talked about Draymond recruiting him a couple of summers ago and he chose to pass on joining?
Maybe, but he's on such a sad-Sac team, his perspective may have changed. Not like he has a no-trade, anyway.
That might be the most depressing trade I’ve heard.