Whoa, Steph and KD are #1 and #2 in the league in gravity at 37 years old?
Hypothetically then, what would happen to the league if Steph and KD 1) played on the same team and 2) were in their prime, say, about 10 or so years younger ?
I did a few despair audits in the distant past, but it ended up feeling a little too sadistic 😀. The closest I get now is the occasional “coach emotional wellness check”…
Today I was crafting in my head a message to dnhq that after (10?) years of following that I would be signing off something about feeling like a strict basketball only policy maybe is not a place I want to visit right now (I understand Eric’s intentions)… anyhow… thank you for posting this.
Now i dont feel like I need to craft a goodbye love letter
Re sleepy’s comment, I’m generally a chill dude too, but I’m a raging fanatical anti fascist (but arent we all?)
I’m glad someone brought it up; thanks Sab. I’m a generally chill dude but am gutted about this. I know we’re not supposed to discuss politics on this site, but this transcends that imo. A mother of a now orphaned child was brutally murdered in cold blood, and the murderer will likely face no consequences. Anyone calling her a radical leftist or terrorist or whatever is a truly awful and evil person.
She who I will not name going on live television claiming self defense is such an insult to our intelligence. Do they not realize there's a million angles of this horrific act?
They tried to charge the guy who threw a Subway sandwich at an ICE officer with felony. And the officer lied about how the sandwich “exploded all over” his chest and claimed he could smell mustard and onions. But a photo showed that the sandwich was still in its wrapper when the person threw the sandwich.
Fortunately for the man, the jury acquitted him of a serious charge.
I was gonna post a link in a thread from r/warriors, but it was from a speculator who threw out a random three-team trade involving the Warriors, Kings, and Nets, with the Warriors getting MPJ, Kings getting JK, and Nets getting Monk from the Kings and salary fillers from the Warriors.
The best thing about that link is that the accompanying article mentioned that it was Hello Kitty night last night (which I, inexplicably did not know or pick up on until now) and now I don't think Apricot was being quite so random with the thread title :)
Over his last 6 games since returning from his sciatica sabbatical. Al Horford has hit 13-29 threes (45%), 6 of 11 twos (55%), 34 rebounds, 7 offensive rebounds, 8 assists, 3 steals, and 6 blocks agaist 3 turnovers in 92 minutes.
Horford's per 36 minute stats over his last 6 games:
21.5 points on 45% three point shooting and 55% two point shooting, 5.1 made threes, 13.3 rebounds, 2.7 offensive rebounds, 3.1 assists, 1.2 steals, 2.3 blocks, 1.2 turnovers
Over his last three games, Melton has hit 9 of 18 three point attempts.
Last his 5 games, he has hit 12 of 21 twos and has 23 rebounds, 7 offensive rebounds, 6 assists, 9 steals, and 2 blocks against 8 turnovers in 122 minutes of play.
Melton's per 36 minute stats over his last 5 games:
16.8 points on 44% three point shooting and 57% two point shooting, 3.0 made threes, 6.8 rebounds, 2.1 offensive rebounds, 1.8 assists, 2.7 steals, 0.6 blocks, 2.4 turnovers
I think the biggest problem with this proposal from ESPN, and why the Warriors wouldn’t do this, is the opportunity cost. Even protected it’ll tie up their picks for years with only swaps in fallow years meaning if a star becomes available in the summer they can’t throw serious draft capital in.
I also worry with Murphy he’s a good stats on a bad team guy. The Pelicans are atrocious so it makes me suspicious.
If MPJ requires less draft capital I’d definitely favour that. Trading 26 and 28 still leaves you top half of 30, 32, swaps in 27, 29, and 31 which is something you can still use elsewhere given its likely to almost all be post-Steph picks. But it sounds like quite a few teams will be after MPJ.
That said a lot of the plugged in people are talking about much less exciting names. If we end up with Keon Ellis for JK we will have done quite well at this point, with Monk going somewhere else.
3 1sts for a non-game changer just means you're stuck with that lineup for at least the Curry years. Murphy is good, but I don't see him as the difference between this lineup and a title.
If you are a win-now type (I am not) then you're probably better off putting more assets in and getting a top-flight talent.
Personally, I'd just as soon wait until the summer and make a JK trade then. But, the tea leaves seem to be indicating his gone pretty soon, so I hope whatever trade they make is minimalist, and allows us to keep our picks.
While Murphy is a talented scorer, that's all he is. Don't get fooled by his size, he's a poor rebounder, a roughly Kuminga level passer, and a poor defender.
I'm a win -now type, but I'm not a win at all costs type. I'd drop two first round picks for MPJ as he's scoring at far greater volume at similar efficiency WHILE hitting more difficult shots (which translates better into playoffs) AND has demonstrated an ability to play alongside other stars in Denver. He's also a bad defender, but he's a solid enough rebounder.
Furthermore, while MPJ is also a bad passer (still better than Murphy), he's someone a la Buddy Hield who limits his time on ball and shoots or just gives up the ball. The ball movement doesn't' stagnate even if he's not generating shots with his passing.
An important consideration in acquiring Murphy would be to increase the number of Dubs named after their fathers and grandfathers. Dubs would have TM3, JB3, Wardell Stephen Curry2, and GP2.
Two young players, one a clear rotation mainstay, and the other with star potential in a new situation, AND 3 FRPs? For Murphy and a shooter who can't shoot and has fallen completely out of the rotation for a bottom of the league team? No thank you!
He's basically a poor man's MPJ: two inches shorter, less gifted shooter and scorer, way worse rebounder. And less than two years younger, so I doubt there's much of a difference in upside. Maybe Murphy's a better defender, but I wouldn't hang my hat on it. Murphy's probably less of a health risk.
On balance, pretty close to a push? So, yeah, I don't really get the difference in enthusiasm for them.
Murphy can create his own shot and use his left hand. Those are huge advantages over Moody. And playing with Steph's gravity should help him be even more effective.
Can't we just trade JK, scraps, and one FRP for Murphy straight up? JK's making $22.5 million and Murphy's at $25 million
He’s bigger, and theoretically a better shooter, and theoretically a better defender, but the numbers don’t add up. Maybe he’s defended much more tightly and playing with bad defenders? I dunno… I don’t get it all that much either…
I don’t think he’s theoretically a better defender at all tbh. More dynamic offensively than Moses is currently though for sure. But you can very easily play them together anyways so its not like you’re trying to replace moody with trey
He is a better shooter. About 2% better, but more importantly people respect his shot whereas they're fine leaving Moody open and so far he hasn't made enough to change that. If Trey had those open looks his percentage would probably be even higher, but if he didn't have the open looks that means he's drawing defenders so they can't just do the "stop Steph at all costs" approach - more space for Jimmy, etc
Also drives more than Moody who is mostly just shooting threes or not involved
Thinking more about it, and he's taller and his shot is much faster than Moody, which is another reason defenders have to stay closer to him at the 3pt line.
I'd rather have TM3 than Moody straight up, but that's not the question. The question is whether he's the guy you throw Moody, JK, and hella picks at... and the answer is no, find another trade. If it's just Moody & JK and this year's pick, then I'd probably do it.
I don't disagree with your take on Murphy, but Moody has positive gravity. He's like 60th in the league, right with Nembhard, Wiggins and Deuce McBride. He's hardly Draymond.
(IMO) top-10 protected isn't useless for the receiving team, but I fell like in 2028 the Warriors are either going to be terrible for a year (if Curry is retired) or still a playoff team (especially with Murphy). So basically it's a gamble that the Warriors suck in 2030. Which isn't a horrible bet, but personally I'd put that at less than 50/50, since we might have enormous amounts of cap space in 2 years.
You're right, though, 3 picks is a lot, and would really impact us if a star player wanted to join us by trade in the future.
Here, he'd be no better than the fourth center (Post, Horford, Dray). And unless TJD goes out in the deal, that's close to a third of your roster being centers (with four of them only being able to play center). Not that he'll have any say in where he gets traded, but this is not a good fit for Loon anymore.
I hope Rollins took some humbleage - despite having a break out season... Damn, come to think of it, he looks like he would have made a pretty good understudy to Curry.
17/4/6 (inc 1.6 steals and 2.4 3pts) on 48/42/77 (59% TS). Good pick Bob.
(Sigh) So we're at the point where I start watching the standings as they (obviously) become more and more relevant the later into the season you get. Having heard the Lakers and Rockets lost i was eager to see the progress we made. When I looked, the gap to 6th place just looks so huge and I fear we may have dug ourselves too big a hole. I sure wish we'd picked up even a couple of those controversial losses from earlier in the season
TMy blunt assessment of the Warriors' season so far, with three games to go to the halfway point:
The Warriors have totally half-assed this season to date, at least in terms of maximizing wins.
The Warriors' overall effort level, the (non-)availability of the Warriors players, and most of all Kerr's rotations all bear the earmarks of a semi-tanking team or at minimum a team that really hasn't cared too much about its won-loss record to date.
I am not sure why the Warriors were so complacent to be (or even intent on being) a roughly .500 team to this point of the season, but they were. They have blown so many highly winnable games, especially against teams missing key players, that it almost seems as if they were trying to throw some of them, albeit often with some kindly assistance from the refs.
Obviously, my delusions that these losses were motivated by some light years ahead master plan is a coping mechanism. But I choose to believe that the Warriors either have their eye on a top 20 pick in the 2026 draft, have been trying to maximize the trade appeal of that and other upcoming picks, or both because this is the only way I can rationalize how many eminently winnable games the Warriors have blown to date this season. :)
That's a pretty conspiracy-theory take, especially the part about Kerr's rotations.
To me, Kerr's done what he normally does ... tries things out early in the season, sees what fails, moves on from that to something else. But, he gives each iteration time to shake out (usually several games).
That's also been somewhat disrupted by Horford being out for so long with sciatica/lumbago/scrofulus, Melton working himself back from a serious injury, and JK looking like a perfect fit for preseason and the first few games, having an injury, and coming back a completely different player. It's (perhaps) taken a little longer than in previous years.
But, right around game 20 - 25, Kerr makes some decisions, starts shortening the rotation and honing in on who will play.
I don't see that much different this year.
edit: Plus, of course, I don't think it's a coincidence that we started playing a little better once we got to a less onerous part of our schedule (more rest, less travel). We'll see what happens in the dog days after the trade deadline.
Never attribute to malice what can adequately be explained by just kinda sucking on the court.
Half tanking would be stupid ("lets get the 10th pick instead of the 20th and a play off berth." I don't think so)
If they are full on tanking they are worse at that than at trying to win.
Probably they were just a combination of unlucky and not that good. Hopefully with Melton and Al rounding into form plus a possible roster improvement by the trade deadline we'll upgrade our record in the close ones.
The Dubs' main problem is that they don't shoot well. Apparently their shot quality is highest in the league yet they continue to brick their way into losses that should be wins.
Four games back with what, 44 games left? They’ll need to play a lot better, but seem to be trending the right way and have a nice stretch of winnable home games. Getting out of the play-in doesn’t seem like an insurmountable challenge to me, but my glass tends to run half full 🤷🏼♂️
If we sweep the homestand, that will put our record at 27-18 (0.600), having won 8 straight and 14 of 17. That win percentage would be good for ... 7th in the West, just barely above the Suns.
It's tough to move up in the West right now. In the last 10 games, Dubs have gone 7-3, but no team in the West's top 9 has gone worse than 5-5 (Lakers, Nuggets) while the Thunder, Spurs, Rockets, and Blazers have been 6-4 and the Wolves and Suns are also 7-3.
But Dubs have 7 more consecutive games at home to hopefully make up some of the distance in the standings.
But what about after those 7 more home games? We'll go back to having a road heavy schedule with more back to backs, so it's not a safe bet that just because we sweep the homestand (which itself is not a safe bet) we would continue winning at a very high percentage.
I'm here for all the hopium in this thread though!
Honestly same, what I'm looking more at is the 9th seed. I'm hoping we open up enough of a lead that we're able to rest our players leading up to the playin game punting those last few matches.
That way, the play-in cutting into the rest time prior to the playoffs wouldn't be as big of a deal since we rested prior. The problem last year was that everyone was SO CLOSE to each other that we couldn't afford to rest at all.
Seems unlikely that situation plays out. Also don't think they'll rest if 8 is locked but 7 is in reach since they would prefer not to travel. So you'd be hoping that not only are they far enough ahead of 9 that they can rest but also that they have zero chance of 7 (or 6). Seems more likely that either things go well enough that there's a chance (even if small) of making top 6 or 7 so they can't/don't rest, or things go poorly such that they have to fight to hold off e.g. LAC for the 8. Sigh.
Just need a good run... and a little regression to the mean on the luck front.
We've got 7 more games on this home stand, and then a road game against DAL, assume we have a good run here and we go 7-1, which gets us to 27-19 on 1/23. The Lakers also have 8 games between now and then (including two B2Bs), say they go 4-4 and get to 27-16. Phoenix, Minny, and Houston all have a tough little stretch over the next few weeks. If we get a good run on this homestand, we'll be in good shape with 36 whole games left in the season... AND we'll pretty soon turn $30M in players currently sitting on the bench into player(s) who contribute. We do need to go on a run, but I think we're in fine shape...
I'm sure you're correct that they are conscious of managing the core's minutes. Whether that's sufficient to avoid a serious injury for the entire season, I guess we'll find out.
You assumed the Lakers go 4-4, and that still puts them three losses ahead of us. So we need them to actually go less than .500, and assuming they go .500 already felt like it was pushing it.
The Lakers still have a negative net rating, we don't need to catch them in January, we need to catch them in April. Being 1.5 games back of the Lakers in January is a fine place to be, especially with (as Sab notes) 3 games left against them. There will be 36 regular season games left after the Mavs game. That's 2x whole NFL seasons worth of games.
We need to pass them AND someone else by April to avoid the play in (while holding off surging LAC).
There is absolutely enough time for it to be doable. But I just worry that having around 10 bad losses already has given us extremely little room for error in doing so.
Yeah, I said the same thing yesterday that I think the hole we dug is unfortunately too big. Especially because even the Suns don't seem to be sliding - hopefully we can pass them but top 6 seems unlikely :(
And what is their record against teams with winning records so far? They've beaten OKC, LAL, us, and surely some others. Sure their schedule might be a little tough but that doesn't mean they can't win at a pace only slightly below what they've done so far.
Trust me, I want these teams to falter, I just am losing hope relying on it
Btw, after our 8 game home stand, our schedule is going to go back to being unfavorable...
Well... if you're going to take the position that the Warriors are going to keep performing like a 0.500 team and the Suns & Lakers are going to keep performing like a >0.500 team, then we won't catch them, right?
It wasn't taking the position "we keep performing .500", it was worrying that even if we do really up our win%, it still might not be enough unless two other teams falter enough.
We went 23-7 last year after Jimmy given that we essentially below 500. I think this year's trade deadline should not see such a seismic shift(in terms of pieces acquired). This homestand will make or break the season. Win 6 out of the next seven. Some payback is due.
Some Steph Curry notes, as we approach the halfway point of the season...
In 28 games out of 38 total, Steph's averaging 32.2mpg. His 3pt shooting percentage is obvious down as it has been more and more of in recent seasons, and his counting stats in assists and rebounds are likewise down, but here are some highlights on how he ranks against his previous seasons in various statistical categories (excluding the19-20 season where he played only 5 games)
- 2nd in 2PT%
- 2nd in PTS/36 (3rd in the NBA!)
- 2nd in USG%
- 2nd in BLK%
- 3rd in FT%
- 3rd in FT/GM
- 4th in PTS/GM
- 4th in FTr
- 5th in TO/GM
- 6th in 3PM/GM (5th in 3P/36)
On a more sobering note, Steph's already missed 10 games, which means he can only miss seven more games the rest of the season if he is to qualify for postseason awards. This year is going to be a bloodbath with many of the best players already likely to be DQ'd or on the verge of it and Steph is very much in danger of joining that group. (I know Steph cares more about winning and contending than postseason awards, but it really sucks for him and other players that this stupid arbitrary threshold is likely to wipe out an otherwise excellent year from consideration).
Speaking of per 36 stats, friend of the program Klay Thompson is 2nd in the NBA behind Steph in 3PFGM and 3PFGA. Klay is playing only 21.9MPG, however, and averaging just under 35% from three.
He’s currently at .500 TS on the nose, almost halfway through the season. Almost unbelievable for a guy whose calling card is supposed to be scoring efficiency (as he has never rebounded or passed at a high level, and his D has declined).
The Hawks won't be able to reaggregate CJ McCollum or Corey Kispert in another trade. They can trade either by themselves, but can't combine their salaries with other outgoing salary.
So, McCollum won't be the primary salary-match in an AD trade.]]
Also, ESPN has an article on “Gravity”: The new stat tracks how much defensive pressure an offensive player draws both on and off the ball.
https://www.nba.com/news/intro-to-gravity-stat-nba-2025
from article "Gravity is part of the next generation of stats and insights that we’re bringing to fans in real-time with the power of AWS AI."
Whoa, Steph and KD are #1 and #2 in the league in gravity at 37 years old?
Hypothetically then, what would happen to the league if Steph and KD 1) played on the same team and 2) were in their prime, say, about 10 or so years younger ?
light years ahead!!
Impossible to know, really...
Came here to check for any breaking news- nothing?? cmon MDJ!!
You're a week early
hey, if the falcons can do it, we can too
Falcons? Ya got the wrong birds….
ha ha - too much football
Maybe E1P needs a dispair audit. The bucks bench after Draymond's favorable bounce three was a hoot.
I did a few despair audits in the distant past, but it ended up feeling a little too sadistic 😀. The closest I get now is the occasional “coach emotional wellness check”…
Gotta do the one of Doc doing the vogue to imitate what he believed were fouls on Giannis!
Ope. I apologize for not being OG enough to know that.
Maybe it's just for Lakers, Rockets and Grizzlies?
I'm not necessarily advocating for MPJ but if we can get him without doing something crazy I can easily be talked into it.
Heat Bulls postponed due to court surface issues.
Too ugly?
No politics. Just sadness.
r/nba
•
26m ago
sewsgup
[Krawczynski] The Timberwolves will be holding a moment of silence for Renee Nicole Good before their game against the Cavaliers tonight.
I feel y'all from very distant shores (and everywhere else in between).
I too am grateful for this DubHaven. It's beyond comprehensible.
Today I was crafting in my head a message to dnhq that after (10?) years of following that I would be signing off something about feeling like a strict basketball only policy maybe is not a place I want to visit right now (I understand Eric’s intentions)… anyhow… thank you for posting this.
Now i dont feel like I need to craft a goodbye love letter
Re sleepy’s comment, I’m generally a chill dude too, but I’m a raging fanatical anti fascist (but arent we all?)
Sorry eric. No more politics from me. Promise.
I am Jack's sincere compassion and broken heart
I’m glad someone brought it up; thanks Sab. I’m a generally chill dude but am gutted about this. I know we’re not supposed to discuss politics on this site, but this transcends that imo. A mother of a now orphaned child was brutally murdered in cold blood, and the murderer will likely face no consequences. Anyone calling her a radical leftist or terrorist or whatever is a truly awful and evil person.
She who I will not name going on live television claiming self defense is such an insult to our intelligence. Do they not realize there's a million angles of this horrific act?
Mister Anchor, assure me
That Minneapolis* is burning
Your voice, it is so soothing
That cunning mantra of killing
I need you, my witness
To dress this up so bloodless
To numb me and purge me now
Of thoughts of blaming you
* Or Portland, Chicago, LA, etc.
They tried to charge the guy who threw a Subway sandwich at an ICE officer with felony. And the officer lied about how the sandwich “exploded all over” his chest and claimed he could smell mustard and onions. But a photo showed that the sandwich was still in its wrapper when the person threw the sandwich.
Fortunately for the man, the jury acquitted him of a serious charge.
Maybe the jury members tried eating at Subway recently and sympathized with the desire to throw the sandwich away.
Video of the moment of silence:
https://old.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/1q7ubkf/timberwolves_hold_a_moment_of_silence_for_renee/
I appreciate they are doing this
I was gonna post a link in a thread from r/warriors, but it was from a speculator who threw out a random three-team trade involving the Warriors, Kings, and Nets, with the Warriors getting MPJ, Kings getting JK, and Nets getting Monk from the Kings and salary fillers from the Warriors.
Be careful, SoL. If you read r/warriors too much you’ll soon be telling us we could get Sabonis for only JK + Moody + 2 1st round picks.
Thank you Warriors for winning on my birthday.
Repping the 7th - awesome Or, as its called when you reach my status: the day that shall not be named.
Okay they need to win two days after your birthday too.
Yes because that’s my gf’s son’s birthday.
How old are they? If they're young, move to NY, they got free childcare!!
Heard about that. Go Mamdani!
Your fam has us covered!
Yikes: https://people.com/fans-brawl-in-stands-at-warriors-bucks-game-in-wild-video-watch-11881557
The best thing about that link is that the accompanying article mentioned that it was Hello Kitty night last night (which I, inexplicably did not know or pick up on until now) and now I don't think Apricot was being quite so random with the thread title :)
Also the arena announcer announcing Draymond going to the line. What timing.
Over his last 6 games since returning from his sciatica sabbatical. Al Horford has hit 13-29 threes (45%), 6 of 11 twos (55%), 34 rebounds, 7 offensive rebounds, 8 assists, 3 steals, and 6 blocks agaist 3 turnovers in 92 minutes.
Horford's per 36 minute stats over his last 6 games:
21.5 points on 45% three point shooting and 55% two point shooting, 5.1 made threes, 13.3 rebounds, 2.7 offensive rebounds, 3.1 assists, 1.2 steals, 2.3 blocks, 1.2 turnovers
Over his last three games, Melton has hit 9 of 18 three point attempts.
Last his 5 games, he has hit 12 of 21 twos and has 23 rebounds, 7 offensive rebounds, 6 assists, 9 steals, and 2 blocks against 8 turnovers in 122 minutes of play.
Melton's per 36 minute stats over his last 5 games:
16.8 points on 44% three point shooting and 57% two point shooting, 3.0 made threes, 6.8 rebounds, 2.1 offensive rebounds, 1.8 assists, 2.7 steals, 0.6 blocks, 2.4 turnovers
Old Man and The Three... still got it
ESPN actually proposed a trade that favors the Warriors?
"Golden State Warriors get:
- Jordan Hawkins - Trey Murphy III
New Orleans Pelicans get:
- Jonathan Kuminga - Moses Moody - 2026 first-round pick (via Warriors) - 2028 first-round pick (via Warriors, top-10 protected) - 2030 first-round pick (via Warriors, if No. 5 to 20)
Utah Jazz get:
- Kevon Looney - 2031 second-round pick (via Raptors) - 2032 second-round pick (via Pelicans) - Cash considerations"
https://www.nbcsportsbayarea.com/nba/golden-state-warriors/trey-murphy-iii-trade-package/1905593/
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/47542489/nba-trade-deadline-six-offers-impact-lakers-warriors-bucks-spurs-wolves-raptors
(they also have the Lakers getting Keon Ellis for basically nothing, so . . .)
I think the biggest problem with this proposal from ESPN, and why the Warriors wouldn’t do this, is the opportunity cost. Even protected it’ll tie up their picks for years with only swaps in fallow years meaning if a star becomes available in the summer they can’t throw serious draft capital in.
I also worry with Murphy he’s a good stats on a bad team guy. The Pelicans are atrocious so it makes me suspicious.
If MPJ requires less draft capital I’d definitely favour that. Trading 26 and 28 still leaves you top half of 30, 32, swaps in 27, 29, and 31 which is something you can still use elsewhere given its likely to almost all be post-Steph picks. But it sounds like quite a few teams will be after MPJ.
That said a lot of the plugged in people are talking about much less exciting names. If we end up with Keon Ellis for JK we will have done quite well at this point, with Monk going somewhere else.
exactly.
3 1sts for a non-game changer just means you're stuck with that lineup for at least the Curry years. Murphy is good, but I don't see him as the difference between this lineup and a title.
If you are a win-now type (I am not) then you're probably better off putting more assets in and getting a top-flight talent.
Personally, I'd just as soon wait until the summer and make a JK trade then. But, the tea leaves seem to be indicating his gone pretty soon, so I hope whatever trade they make is minimalist, and allows us to keep our picks.
While Murphy is a talented scorer, that's all he is. Don't get fooled by his size, he's a poor rebounder, a roughly Kuminga level passer, and a poor defender.
I'm a win -now type, but I'm not a win at all costs type. I'd drop two first round picks for MPJ as he's scoring at far greater volume at similar efficiency WHILE hitting more difficult shots (which translates better into playoffs) AND has demonstrated an ability to play alongside other stars in Denver. He's also a bad defender, but he's a solid enough rebounder.
Furthermore, while MPJ is also a bad passer (still better than Murphy), he's someone a la Buddy Hield who limits his time on ball and shoots or just gives up the ball. The ball movement doesn't' stagnate even if he's not generating shots with his passing.
I am not in favor of giving up first round draft picks just to sweeten a deal.
I would not do that for TM3. I would give 2 FRPs(one unprotected) for MPJ though. That guy has been absolutely elite this season.
An important consideration in acquiring Murphy would be to increase the number of Dubs named after their fathers and grandfathers. Dubs would have TM3, JB3, Wardell Stephen Curry2, and GP2.
You get that with MPJ too.
Two young players, one a clear rotation mainstay, and the other with star potential in a new situation, AND 3 FRPs? For Murphy and a shooter who can't shoot and has fallen completely out of the rotation for a bottom of the league team? No thank you!
I get the allure of TM3 but I think he's getting way over valued. For example, Moody and TM3 rank nearly identical in expected and actual EPM.
He's basically a poor man's MPJ: two inches shorter, less gifted shooter and scorer, way worse rebounder. And less than two years younger, so I doubt there's much of a difference in upside. Maybe Murphy's a better defender, but I wouldn't hang my hat on it. Murphy's probably less of a health risk.
On balance, pretty close to a push? So, yeah, I don't really get the difference in enthusiasm for them.
So the way I see it, here are the upsides and downsides of getting MPJ over TMIII:
+Taller and lengthier.
+Has been in a championship team before and knows how to play winning basketball.
+Better three point shooter (41.1% vs. 38.2%)
+Better rebounder (8.2 rebounds vs. 6.2 rebounds)
+Averages more points per 36 mins (28.4 pts vs. 21.5 points)
+Slightly higher efficient FG %age (59.8% vs. 59.2%)
-Way more expensive. MPJ is making $38.3 million this season while TMIII is making $25 million.
-Worse FT shooter (82.8% vs. 90.8% per 36 mins)
-Turns the ball over more (2.7 TOs/game vs. 1.9 TOs/game)
-Is a couple of years older
Both of them are 49.5% FG per 36 mins this season, but MPJ has higher FGAs (10.0/20.3) compared to TMIII (7.6/15.3).
If there are any I missed, please add them.
I think you’re forgetting the biggest difference: michael porter jr costs $13 million more
Murphy can create his own shot and use his left hand. Those are huge advantages over Moody. And playing with Steph's gravity should help him be even more effective.
Can't we just trade JK, scraps, and one FRP for Murphy straight up? JK's making $22.5 million and Murphy's at $25 million
He’s bigger, and theoretically a better shooter, and theoretically a better defender, but the numbers don’t add up. Maybe he’s defended much more tightly and playing with bad defenders? I dunno… I don’t get it all that much either…
I don’t think he’s theoretically a better defender at all tbh. More dynamic offensively than Moses is currently though for sure. But you can very easily play them together anyways so its not like you’re trying to replace moody with trey
He is a better shooter. About 2% better, but more importantly people respect his shot whereas they're fine leaving Moody open and so far he hasn't made enough to change that. If Trey had those open looks his percentage would probably be even higher, but if he didn't have the open looks that means he's drawing defenders so they can't just do the "stop Steph at all costs" approach - more space for Jimmy, etc
Also drives more than Moody who is mostly just shooting threes or not involved
Thinking more about it, and he's taller and his shot is much faster than Moody, which is another reason defenders have to stay closer to him at the 3pt line.
I'd rather have TM3 than Moody straight up, but that's not the question. The question is whether he's the guy you throw Moody, JK, and hella picks at... and the answer is no, find another trade. If it's just Moody & JK and this year's pick, then I'd probably do it.
I don't disagree with your take on Murphy, but Moody has positive gravity. He's like 60th in the league, right with Nembhard, Wiggins and Deuce McBride. He's hardly Draymond.
Murphy's got serious range - he's dangerous in spots where few others (Steph, Dame, Trae) have been successful. Talk about stretching the floor......
I'm not sure those players are worth three firsts, even if protected. I guess the logic is that you're paying to get off of JK's contract?
(IMO) top-10 protected isn't useless for the receiving team, but I fell like in 2028 the Warriors are either going to be terrible for a year (if Curry is retired) or still a playoff team (especially with Murphy). So basically it's a gamble that the Warriors suck in 2030. Which isn't a horrible bet, but personally I'd put that at less than 50/50, since we might have enormous amounts of cap space in 2 years.
You're right, though, 3 picks is a lot, and would really impact us if a star player wanted to join us by trade in the future.
Yeah don’t understand why we’d pay moody and 3 1sts for the privilege of getting another 3 point specialist SG on top of Trey Murphy
Okay but can the Warriors get Looney instead?
I don't think Loon's coming back.
Here, he'd be no better than the fourth center (Post, Horford, Dray). And unless TJD goes out in the deal, that's close to a third of your roster being centers (with four of them only being able to play center). Not that he'll have any say in where he gets traded, but this is not a good fit for Loon anymore.
Mama Babers keeping it real with Draymond:
https://youtube.com/shorts/2iDSztLIo6Y?si=lujeE31FzNOKkoOj
Steph took umbrage to Rollins showing him up in the last matchup. This is the most midrange jumpers he had taken in awhile.
I hope Rollins took some humbleage - despite having a break out season... Damn, come to think of it, he looks like he would have made a pretty good understudy to Curry.
17/4/6 (inc 1.6 steals and 2.4 3pts) on 48/42/77 (59% TS). Good pick Bob.
Que Sera, Sera.
(Sigh) So we're at the point where I start watching the standings as they (obviously) become more and more relevant the later into the season you get. Having heard the Lakers and Rockets lost i was eager to see the progress we made. When I looked, the gap to 6th place just looks so huge and I fear we may have dug ourselves too big a hole. I sure wish we'd picked up even a couple of those controversial losses from earlier in the season
TMy blunt assessment of the Warriors' season so far, with three games to go to the halfway point:
The Warriors have totally half-assed this season to date, at least in terms of maximizing wins.
The Warriors' overall effort level, the (non-)availability of the Warriors players, and most of all Kerr's rotations all bear the earmarks of a semi-tanking team or at minimum a team that really hasn't cared too much about its won-loss record to date.
I am not sure why the Warriors were so complacent to be (or even intent on being) a roughly .500 team to this point of the season, but they were. They have blown so many highly winnable games, especially against teams missing key players, that it almost seems as if they were trying to throw some of them, albeit often with some kindly assistance from the refs.
Obviously, my delusions that these losses were motivated by some light years ahead master plan is a coping mechanism. But I choose to believe that the Warriors either have their eye on a top 20 pick in the 2026 draft, have been trying to maximize the trade appeal of that and other upcoming picks, or both because this is the only way I can rationalize how many eminently winnable games the Warriors have blown to date this season. :)
That's a pretty conspiracy-theory take, especially the part about Kerr's rotations.
To me, Kerr's done what he normally does ... tries things out early in the season, sees what fails, moves on from that to something else. But, he gives each iteration time to shake out (usually several games).
That's also been somewhat disrupted by Horford being out for so long with sciatica/lumbago/scrofulus, Melton working himself back from a serious injury, and JK looking like a perfect fit for preseason and the first few games, having an injury, and coming back a completely different player. It's (perhaps) taken a little longer than in previous years.
But, right around game 20 - 25, Kerr makes some decisions, starts shortening the rotation and honing in on who will play.
I don't see that much different this year.
edit: Plus, of course, I don't think it's a coincidence that we started playing a little better once we got to a less onerous part of our schedule (more rest, less travel). We'll see what happens in the dog days after the trade deadline.
Never attribute to malice what can adequately be explained by just kinda sucking on the court.
Half tanking would be stupid ("lets get the 10th pick instead of the 20th and a play off berth." I don't think so)
If they are full on tanking they are worse at that than at trying to win.
Probably they were just a combination of unlucky and not that good. Hopefully with Melton and Al rounding into form plus a possible roster improvement by the trade deadline we'll upgrade our record in the close ones.
The Dubs' main problem is that they don't shoot well. Apparently their shot quality is highest in the league yet they continue to brick their way into losses that should be wins.
Four games back with what, 44 games left? They’ll need to play a lot better, but seem to be trending the right way and have a nice stretch of winnable home games. Getting out of the play-in doesn’t seem like an insurmountable challenge to me, but my glass tends to run half full 🤷🏼♂️
I mean, I try to have my glass run half full. I'd say the half full outlook on that s I'm about halfway successful.
One thing is that I only count the loss column for games back so we are 6 games back of Rockets Lakers Nuggets and 5 GB of the Wolves.
If we sweep the homestand, that will put our record at 27-18 (0.600), having won 8 straight and 14 of 17. That win percentage would be good for ... 7th in the West, just barely above the Suns.
It's tough to move up in the West right now. In the last 10 games, Dubs have gone 7-3, but no team in the West's top 9 has gone worse than 5-5 (Lakers, Nuggets) while the Thunder, Spurs, Rockets, and Blazers have been 6-4 and the Wolves and Suns are also 7-3.
But Dubs have 7 more consecutive games at home to hopefully make up some of the distance in the standings.
But what about after those 7 more home games? We'll go back to having a road heavy schedule with more back to backs, so it's not a safe bet that just because we sweep the homestand (which itself is not a safe bet) we would continue winning at a very high percentage.
I'm here for all the hopium in this thread though!
We're still a little under halfway through the season. A lot of games left to play, and the trade deadline to process what does or doesn't happen.
Honestly same, what I'm looking more at is the 9th seed. I'm hoping we open up enough of a lead that we're able to rest our players leading up to the playin game punting those last few matches.
That way, the play-in cutting into the rest time prior to the playoffs wouldn't be as big of a deal since we rested prior. The problem last year was that everyone was SO CLOSE to each other that we couldn't afford to rest at all.
Seems unlikely that situation plays out. Also don't think they'll rest if 8 is locked but 7 is in reach since they would prefer not to travel. So you'd be hoping that not only are they far enough ahead of 9 that they can rest but also that they have zero chance of 7 (or 6). Seems more likely that either things go well enough that there's a chance (even if small) of making top 6 or 7 so they can't/don't rest, or things go poorly such that they have to fight to hold off e.g. LAC for the 8. Sigh.
Just need a good run... and a little regression to the mean on the luck front.
We've got 7 more games on this home stand, and then a road game against DAL, assume we have a good run here and we go 7-1, which gets us to 27-19 on 1/23. The Lakers also have 8 games between now and then (including two B2Bs), say they go 4-4 and get to 27-16. Phoenix, Minny, and Houston all have a tough little stretch over the next few weeks. If we get a good run on this homestand, we'll be in good shape with 36 whole games left in the season... AND we'll pretty soon turn $30M in players currently sitting on the bench into player(s) who contribute. We do need to go on a run, but I think we're in fine shape...
Plus a ton of injury luck, unfortunately. We've gotten off fairly lightly so far with the core guys (IMHO).
Luck or design?
The Warriors don't have a single player among the NBA's top 50 in total minutes played or minutes played per game so far this season.
I'm sure you're correct that they are conscious of managing the core's minutes. Whether that's sufficient to avoid a serious injury for the entire season, I guess we'll find out.
You assumed the Lakers go 4-4, and that still puts them three losses ahead of us. So we need them to actually go less than .500, and assuming they go .500 already felt like it was pushing it.
The Lakers still have a negative net rating, we don't need to catch them in January, we need to catch them in April. Being 1.5 games back of the Lakers in January is a fine place to be, especially with (as Sab notes) 3 games left against them. There will be 36 regular season games left after the Mavs game. That's 2x whole NFL seasons worth of games.
We need to pass them AND someone else by April to avoid the play in (while holding off surging LAC).
There is absolutely enough time for it to be doable. But I just worry that having around 10 bad losses already has given us extremely little room for error in doing so.
But I'm here for all the hopium in this thread!
We still have 3 games to play against them. If we could win all those that will be helpful.
🤞🤞🤞🤞🤞
Yeah, I said the same thing yesterday that I think the hole we dug is unfortunately too big. Especially because even the Suns don't seem to be sliding - hopefully we can pass them but top 6 seems unlikely :(
I like the Suns more than the Lakers, but I think we catch them. Take care of the rest of the division games, starting tomorrow.
The Suns have had a pretty soft schedule I think so far.
6 of the Suns' next 9 games are against teams with winning records, and there's a long 6 game road trip with a 3-in-4 in there too...
And what is their record against teams with winning records so far? They've beaten OKC, LAL, us, and surely some others. Sure their schedule might be a little tough but that doesn't mean they can't win at a pace only slightly below what they've done so far.
Trust me, I want these teams to falter, I just am losing hope relying on it
Btw, after our 8 game home stand, our schedule is going to go back to being unfavorable...
Well... if you're going to take the position that the Warriors are going to keep performing like a 0.500 team and the Suns & Lakers are going to keep performing like a >0.500 team, then we won't catch them, right?
It wasn't taking the position "we keep performing .500", it was worrying that even if we do really up our win%, it still might not be enough unless two other teams falter enough.
We went 23-7 last year after Jimmy given that we essentially below 500. I think this year's trade deadline should not see such a seismic shift(in terms of pieces acquired). This homestand will make or break the season. Win 6 out of the next seven. Some payback is due.
Yeah, doesn't look good. I guess just keep winning the next one and hope for some lucky results in other games ... a LOT of them.
Yep, all we can do is hope for warrior wins along with losses from the teams ahead. Yesterday was a good start (other than Suns winning)
Some Steph Curry notes, as we approach the halfway point of the season...
In 28 games out of 38 total, Steph's averaging 32.2mpg. His 3pt shooting percentage is obvious down as it has been more and more of in recent seasons, and his counting stats in assists and rebounds are likewise down, but here are some highlights on how he ranks against his previous seasons in various statistical categories (excluding the19-20 season where he played only 5 games)
- 2nd in 2PT%
- 2nd in PTS/36 (3rd in the NBA!)
- 2nd in USG%
- 2nd in BLK%
- 3rd in FT%
- 3rd in FT/GM
- 4th in PTS/GM
- 4th in FTr
- 5th in TO/GM
- 6th in 3PM/GM (5th in 3P/36)
On a more sobering note, Steph's already missed 10 games, which means he can only miss seven more games the rest of the season if he is to qualify for postseason awards. This year is going to be a bloodbath with many of the best players already likely to be DQ'd or on the verge of it and Steph is very much in danger of joining that group. (I know Steph cares more about winning and contending than postseason awards, but it really sucks for him and other players that this stupid arbitrary threshold is likely to wipe out an otherwise excellent year from consideration).
Speaking of per 36 stats, friend of the program Klay Thompson is 2nd in the NBA behind Steph in 3PFGM and 3PFGA. Klay is playing only 21.9MPG, however, and averaging just under 35% from three.
And he's at 42% on twos and 68% from the line.
He’s currently at .500 TS on the nose, almost halfway through the season. Almost unbelievable for a guy whose calling card is supposed to be scoring efficiency (as he has never rebounded or passed at a high level, and his D has declined).
FYI for trade machine enthusiasts:
[[ Clearing up something:
The Hawks won't be able to reaggregate CJ McCollum or Corey Kispert in another trade. They can trade either by themselves, but can't combine their salaries with other outgoing salary.
So, McCollum won't be the primary salary-match in an AD trade.]]
https://bsky.app/profile/keithsmithnba.bsky.social/post/3mbwaql77ik2p