112 Comments

Lonzo and Wiseman would be too perfect together man let them go crazy against second units

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Lonzo may be auditioning to be a Jr Splash Bro. End of 3rd against the Bucks, he's the leading scorer with 24 pts, 6-11 from 3.

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Jan 30, 2021Liked by Eric Apricot

At beginning of season, I commented we needed about 20 games to find out whether this team can mesh; find out if it had enough for a playoff push.

I stated my hope was we could hang around .500 while we found out what we had, and be ready to drive for a playoff berth.

Next game, game 20, Dubs will be at .500 or better, and on the playoff cusp.

Methinks we have a great shot at playoffs, and, have found the BIG Man coveted for over a decade.

Yes, Oubre's inconsistency is frustrating; nonetheless, I am convinced we should hang with him.

The schedule really gets even more challenging this next week; we win if we get through it at .500.

I like where we're at.

LGW

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Another reason for optimism is that we've played better on the second game of a "baseball" series each time so far... showing that the players and coaches are making proper adjustments... next game is Detroit and we've already played them so let's see if we do better as well.

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Imo the main reason for pessimism/optimism depending on how you view it is Draymond. I really have to wonder if he's still being plagued by the effects of COVID. The lack of rebounds and blocks (and that awful missed dunk against IND or flagrant on Kawhi) suggest a lack of lift on his jumps. The poor performances against Denver and Utah suggest his conditioning can't hold up in the altitude. Kerr has been pretty reluctant to use Draymond at center, and I don't think that's because Kerr is an idiot. Kerr is playing him sparingly, he hasn't gone over 32 minutes in a game this season. And Kerr/Draymond haven't shed much light on the subject, just have talked about how Draymond is still getting his conditioning up.

Can he recover from this during this season? Ever? If he can't, does that shut the window on the Warriors' title chances? If he can, how much better can this team be if you get a better Draymond playing more minutes?

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Here's some data... it's interesting but I don't know how to interpret it or if it's even reliable. This is "player tracking >> rebounding" stats for Dray over the years. Dray has fewer minutes per game this year but doesn't explain everything (26 minutes vs. ~31 minutes between 2015-2019).

Year(s): Rebound Chances per Game, Rebound Percentage

2020-21: 8, 57.5%

2016-19: 14, 55-59% (KD)

2015-16: 16, 58.3% (Bogut & Ezeli)

2014-15: 13.8, 59.4%

Average Rebound distance is roughly 5.0 for every year except this year at 6.0. This is the first year since 2014-15 that he isn't leading the team in Rebound Chances... Wiseman leads the team this year and Bogut led the team in 2014-15 (and technically Boogie led in 2018-19 but he only played 30 games).

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Oh we also don't have SBDS with Dray as center anymore (which is where that missing 5 minutes went). So whatever is happening... seems like his rebound rate is fine but he's just not in position to grab as many... possibly rotating to help too much?

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They haven’t seemed worried about their record at all yet. Definitely being conservative with Draymond and Looney minutes. The question becomes: is that because they don’t believe they can compete in the playoffs and have given up; or is it because they are confident they can make the playoffs with minutes being managed and are waiting to maximize their effort when it counts.

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Final thought: Is anyone else curious how they would do with Wiseman in Paschall’s role now that teams have figured out Paschall’s game a bit. One of the reasons the team is so inconsistent seems to be that some of the starters seem more intent on getting Wiseman going than on winningwhen he enters the game. Wiseman gets himself going just fine, and more naturally, with the bench.

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Even when Paschall plays the 5, he and Wiseman should have and do have very different roles. Paschall is the small ball guy, he's strong and can get to the rack but you can't teach height and all that. Not apples and oranges, exactly but I think Kerr would look for different combinations and matchups for those two.

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Is there a reason the team doesn't bring Looney back in with the starters in the 2nd? It seems like the Jazz game and this one were blown open after trending towards being competitive based upon Looney's lack of entry into the game in certain spots.

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"Road team loses 2nd game of back to back against home team on 2nd game of back to back" is never surprising. Before we explode things, let's just explore how often that happens (I saw a study that says a back to back that is first home then away is really hard to do, and usually that team loses 80% of the time). Yes, a very good team could overcome these rough situations, but right now this isn't a very good team. Warriors have flaws, beating up on a bad Timberwolves team just let us win in spite of those flaws. But this loss isn't very telling as far as what we really need to work on - besides consistency (because it wasn't the Suns defense that was making us shoot so horribly last night). Deep breaths.

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The more I see of this team, the more I think they need one more guy familiar with the system to help keep the overthinking and scrambling to a minimum. Can we get a push for trading Oubre for Iguodala going? I don't even care if he's very good any more, he'll pass and cut and help train guys up in the schemes. We just need one more player who knows wtf is going on on the court to help every one progress.

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I don't think Oubre is on this team next year so the only reason to not do this trade is bc oubre is a much more valuable asset. Having him and a couple picks gives us a ton of options for getting some good players to fill the 6-9 spots next year behind steph-klay-wiggs-dray-wise (I think paschall and Looney are the only guys with guaranteed minutes)

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Got to get them before the trade deadline cause Oubre’s a UFA. The only way the W’s get anything for him in the off season is if Oubre wants to go to a team without cap room and they need to do a sign and trade; and that’s generally only worth a 2nd round pick or so right?

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I think there's an obscure league rule that doesn't permit any single team to have more than one person named Kelly O. on the roster. So if the Oubre for Andre trade were to happen, the Heat would have to unload Olynyk.

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That's interesting. Oubre is an expiring, and he would need to turn things around and become a consistent contributor for us to re-sign him. Igoudala has a team option for 2021-22 at $15M, so we could keep him unless he decides to retire. If he does retire, maybe he'd stay on in some other capacity, say, as an executive. This would be a move for chemistry and savvy over physical ability but we would not lose defense, and we'd gain passing. Old Man Igoudala can't play as many minutes as Oubre, so we'd presumably give more minutes to Lee or maybe Poole if he gets it together. I dunno, it's worth considering.

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And Andre would take way fewer shots than Oubre while increasing the expected value of shots by Curry, Wiggins, and Wiseman.

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I expect Lee would pick up some of those shots, since Igoudala would play fewer minutes than Oubre. Some of us have wanted to see more Lee anyway so that could be a good thing.

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I’d be excited about that too.

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Ignoring the merits of this trade, those salaries are a severe mismatch, no?

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Less than a million apart. Totally doable.

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According to the realgm trade checker a straight up trade works, but going completely by per game offensive states, the Warriors get worse. They certainly get older.

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Mmm, I am 10000% confident the whole much greater than the sum of the parts and all would come into play. The Warriors aren’t going to resign Oubre unless he shows some mental acuity soon, so age is completely irrelevant.

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As much as I love Igoudala, I’d prefer a younger player (like Ball) who can do a lot of Iggy-type stuff, but be part of the next core when our vets fade. I was hoping Oubre could join Wiggins, Wiseman and Paschall as a key building block, but have lost confidence in him being a good fit.

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Of course a big question is whether the Heat would want Oubre and would make that deal straight up, without us adding valuable picks.

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How about a 2nd round pickswap? Is that a thing?

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How much would you be willing to give the (my kids are starters) Klutch sports client as a contract to keep him going forward? Would you pay the repeater tax on 20mil/year? More? All it takes is one team, and the Giannis sweepstakes have closed early. I'd certainly take Ball over Oubre's unrestricted self, any control is good when you're over the cap right?

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I’d want to see how good a fit he is this season before addressing that in the off-season.

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Question for everyone: Normally I don’t worry about Joe Lacob’s money, but if the season were ending today, do you think he’d tell Meyers to let Oubre walk?

(Assume $15m + $50m cap hit, with no sign and trade options)

I’m having a really tough time seeing it.

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There’s no way they are going to resign Oubre at his rate of progress and his negative impact on Wiseman’s progress with the cap hit it would entail. They have to move him by the deadline or that’s almost certainly a lost asset.

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From a fan's point of view, this game is best forgotten, for the coaches, they have some work to do. I would say that from the part that I saw after I got the feed working, Oubre just looked like he had tired legs. He missed a couple of dunks because he just didn't get up above the rim which normally isn't a problem that he has.

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His eyes were tired too since as soon as he got the ball in his hands he couldn't see his teammates anymore either.

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I have to apologize to the Minnesota fans. When they said there would be glimpses of greatness followed by utterly frustrating lapses of judgement- I dismissed them. When they said you will feel as if he had turned the corner, then he would revert back to where he had always been. Minnesota fans I am sorry I didn't listen to you. It was just that I thought you were talking about Andrew Wiggins not Kelly Oubre.

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Had me in the first half

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I really don’t like the look of the team when Oubre has the ball in his hands. They just chill. They know he’s not passing and now they are ensuring that by giving up. I’m starting to hope the trade rumors are true and viable.

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Instead of Ball, can we get Dinwiddie? Similar profile but much better player who can actually shoot and hits his FTs, on an expiring contract where we’d retain Bird rights. Out for the season and unlikely to be in Brooklyn’s future plans. Brooklyn gets an athletic defensive wing for their title push; we get our big PG / Andre-Shaun 2.0 for our title push next season...

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Dang, looking at what's out there Ball might be the second best option.

The thing this team needs is a steadying presence who can pick up the schemes quickly on both sides of the court so they can speed up the acclimation of all the new players (especially Wiseman and Paschall.) Someone who can fill Oubre's roll potentially with the starters and the bench.

Trading Oubre for Iguodala would probably be the best case scenario for both this year's outcome and the proper training of Wiseman for future success.

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We can dream! I think Oladipo might be the way to go.

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Is he available?

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If you can help Tilman save money I bet any rockets player is available.

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Oubre, Poole, and unfortunately Chriss would allow it to work.

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I’ve been saying the Warriors are in a “Win now, as long as it doesn’t screw up the future” mode. Previously, I’d have said this trade would have abandoned that, but I’m starting to believe Lee and Bazemore could replicate most of Oubre’s positives with better shooting, even if they aren’t as dreamy.

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But it’s also worth pointing out that Ball has better 3pt shooting numbers

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He’s a less flashy, but far more complete player and much better vision on the court. Doesn’t take as many chances on D, but isn’t going to miss rotations.

Some might imply that he’s simply a passer, but he can score and be on the receiving end of back door cuts.

His lob passes are almost supernatural.

Here’s his highlight reel from last season. When re-watching it through the “trade him for Oubre?” lens, I’m struck by two things:

1. How many of these plays I can’t imagine Oubre making

2. How he looks like every bit the natural scorer Oubre is, but how so many of his own scores are within the framework of an actual offense and not just intent on scoring himself on a particular play.

https://youtu.be/eU3OOzQyXOY

By contrast, here’s Oubre’s highlights, which is fun to watch, but it’s almost just dunks and catch-and-shoots. I counted one pass for an assist. https://youtu.be/98EKd_jfu6Y

It seems to me which player makes his teammates better is pretty obvious.

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People keep saying Ball is good at D (I haven't seen that in reality, suspect it's more theoretical) but any good D he plays would be based upon positioning since he definitely doesn't play high pressure D.

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Ball is very low energy when he doesn't have the ball in his hands. Not sure how steadying that is, but he is like the exact opposite of Oubre, except for the occasional irrational 3 pt shot.

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Jan 29, 2021Liked by punk basketball

This game was pretty ugly. They just couldn't keep up the defense and gave up a bunch of easy layups and open threes, then couldn't make the same on the other end.

The game was still fairly close until the beginning of the 4th when we let the Suns get three wide open threes in a row while getting nothing for ourselves.

Part of it, I think, is we didn't play Looney at all the in the 4th. He wasn't looking amazing but Wiseman missed so many easy shots... The other part was guys just weren't knocking down their shots. Credit to Phoenix, they didn't give up a lot of easy ones, and blame the refs, they didn't give us free throws for ANYTHING.

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Yup. Kerr is balancing Wiseman's development vs wins. As of now, it seems like Playoff odds will come down to lasr 10-20 games. Let's hope everyone stays healthy.

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Makes you wonder what would happen if they happened to reel off a 5-6 game win streak... Not that it is currently an issue.

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Steph or Draymond would develop a sore ankle or shoulder for a week.

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Keeping them out of one of the 10 best records has its benefits

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#lightyears

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Since Apricot is devoted to analysis, maybe he can give some insight into Mulder, whom I have a very hard time figuring out why they don't use him more for shooting. Beside being a body for the roster, they don't seem to take him seriously and give him an opportunity to be the marksman that some claim him to be. You know when a guy like JJ Reddick comes into the game, you expect the ball to reach him so he can shoot. Once that ball gets into his hands, he's going to find a way to score more times than not. Lou Williams is another example. There is no reason to think that Mulder is on the same level as those two, so why do we even think about him as a scorer? Why not use his place for a lower tier big man who can fill a much needed role on the boards?

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I don't have anything deep to say about him yet. In general I think he plays a decent conservative solid game, though he perhaps tried to do too much in PHX to give the team a lift.

GSW does run plays for him when he's in the game, so they don't just use him to space. But it does seem like they've given some of his natural minutes to Poole while trying him out before sending Poole to the G-Bubble.

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Jan 29, 2021Liked by punk basketball

His defense seemed off last night.

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His defense IS off lmao. You dont need a deep dive analysis to figure out why an elite shooter isn't getting playing time.

It's also why JTA tends to get preference in the rotations

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"sigh" I guess I know, but the sad part is that some of the other players "cough" Poole "cough" actually make Mulder seem competent.

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Could it be that Steph Curry is the problem with this team? I don't mean this in a demeaning way at all because he is one of the gods of basketball. One of the prime characteristics of Steph is his constant motion, changing direction, and appearing at any place he can to get the ball thrown to him and score. Most players have a much more accessible role to their teammates. Curry is the man so most of the scoring is going to go through him. Players need to adjust their game because it is hard to keep up with Steph and focus on their own role at the same time. Draymond is perfect for Steph because he is not looking to score but pass and Klay is so used to being a Splash Bro, it comes as 2nd nature. Other players seem to have a much more difficult time integrating with Steph. His game is not only on another level, and players with an extremely high IQ might be able to figure it out. This team is not on that level. You don't have spot up shooters like Klay, although Wiggins is doing as well as he can, the rest of the club doesn't have the game to play with Steph. They underproduce regularly by deferring and not creating for others. When you need points, you find Curry. This can work with some opponents, but not the better teams who will shut down Steph enough to alter his game and there is no one good enough to dominate in his place. Wiggins should be a 3rd option, not a 2nd. Draymond's diminished offensive game can be tolerated because of his playmaking. The rest of the team doesn't execute on demand. This is just the offense.

Defense seems lost or inconsistent at best. All this talk about top 10 D is nonsense. You win championships with both O and D joining together. Serious flaws here, not fixable with the talent pool we have. It would take a miracle for everyone to be on the same page. The roster needs further tinkering and building for the future. I love watching Steph, but he is NOT the Warriors team. It's ain't working, so far. The optimists will dismiss this and keep hoping for the miracle. The only miracle here is Steph and the amount of money some of the other players make to field a mediocre team.

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Ah yes the theory of trying to achieve excellence by catering to your lowest IQ/ability members. Socialism might be good to guarantee essential services and smooth out society’s baseline. But it sure as heck won’t lead to success in sport.

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deletedJan 29, 2021Liked by punk basketball
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Ok, didn't have any caffeine and that's definitely not a good definition of socialism. But the gist is: don't set up your structure to cater to the average player if you are seeking excellence in sport.

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Steph is a problem in the same way as finding $20 in your wallet you never knew you had. Its awesome. But I totally agree - its a hard to make it work with a group that hasn't spent 4 years learning his moves and tendencies. If we want to be contenders it will take work and time. These warriors seem similar to 2012 - plenty of potential, limited patches of great play, but an inability to play the full 48mins. I wish we could freeze Stephs age and fast forward a few years...I think these games would play out a little differently.

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Jan 29, 2021Liked by punk basketball

More like finding *4.5 billion dollars in your wallet* given his central role in increasing the franchise value from $500M to $5 billion over the last 10+ years.

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That happened to me the other day, btw. I was like, “how did I forget I had this?”

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I’m sort of used to it now

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This is just an impression and maybe an E1P would show otherwise but I don't like seeing guys like Oubre, Wiseman, and Draymond hesitate even a fraction of a second before shooting a jumper off the pass. I want them to catch and shoot immediately, in rhythm. Otherwise they overthink it and are more likely to miss. Again, just an impression, I have no evidence of this. I'm not talking about true shooters like Steph or Klay or Mulder.

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This goes with what I posted above. The hesitation is a psychological problem of deferment to Steph. Draymond, who can't shoot, will always look to pass and he's a master at it.

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They do it when Steph isn't on the court, too, though. With Wiseman and Dray it may be a lack of confidence, Wiseman that he's making the right decision (he knows he can shoot) and Dray because he knows he's not really a shooter. I don't know what it is with Oubre except maybe the fact that he got off to such a rough start. Of course in some situations anyone not named Steph or Klay might hesitate; those two are cold blooded shooters. I have the most confidence that Wiseman will figure it out because he CAN shoot. Oubre can sometimes but... yeah, I don't know.

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Anyway we could keep wiggins and Wiseman and get Beal?

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You can keep Wiseman, or Wiggins and some extra draft picks but not both. What about a three team trade sending Oubre to the Pels and Ball and Wiseman to the Wiz?

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You could probably keep Wiggins but not Wiseman.

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Not unless you want to trade Klay.

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Jan 29, 2021Liked by punk basketball

That Apricot break down of the play Wiggins just stopped running under the basket really made me miss Klay to maximize Curry.

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Jan 29, 2021Liked by punk basketball

Last night, Oubre and Wiseman were great - tonight they were horrible. Cutting slack for JW as he's just learning, but Oubre's had a lot of stinkers this year; if he misses a couple of shots early, then he seems to press and the suck spirals.

Favorite play of the game was when CP3 tried to take Looney off the dribble and lost the ball through the legs and out of bounds. The Warriors bench was just eating it up - guessing they're not big fans of CP3 either.

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Even when Oubre is on, he’s the end of the passing chain. I don’t think he’s had a single pass that enhances a teammate’s scoring opportunity this year. I’m really hoping they pull off a trade for Wiseman’s sake. Bazemore has shown he can fill that role adequately if nothing else.

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Oubre should have to make two good passes for every shot he's allowed to take.

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It's ok for him to miss shots but when he's off, he looks like the worst player in the league and we can't have that

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At the very least, he shouldn't be taking ke a 3 ptr with 18 sec left on the clock. And only catch-and-shoot.

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