Explain: The Warriors draft pick in 2025, who and why? | with Nik Oza, NBA & NCAA analytics expert
how can we project NBA success?
The Explain One Play video index is here.
In this episode, we are joined by Nik Oza, a seasoned analyst with experience in sports analytics for professional teams like the Charlotte Hornets and Los Angeles Dodgers. We discuss the complexities of scouting NBA draft prospects and which college statistical indicators correlate with NBA success. Nik also shares his insights on several potential draft picks for the Warriors, including the challenges and predictions associated with older prospects and international players.
’s work: NikOza2.substack.comBackground
01:14 Working in MLB sports analytics with Dodgers and Rays
02:27 Big League Advantage
Projecting college to NBA performance
03:36 College shooting and scoring is overrated in the draft
04:34 High variance of three point shooting
08:13 Rebounding and steals and stocks to fouls ratio
09:48 Assist to turnover ratio
10:43 Dunks and rim finishing
11:15 Wingspan and height
12:17 Age
13:32 Draft expected value because most rookies don't contribute right away
Discussing specific prospects
15:51 Good college shooters: Kobe Brea, LJ Cryer, Caleb Grill
16:37 Old age: less upside and also playing against younger competition; John Tonje, Eric Dixon
17:53 Koby Brea
19:47 Second round picks, two-ways, draft-and-stash
22:02 Johni Broome
24:11 Kam Jones
26:40 Sion James
27:44 Is one year of good shooting because of improvement or a fluke?
28:32 Does low usage signal readiness or unreadiness to be an NBA role player?
29:29 Amari Williams
31:05 Will Richard and Alijah Martin
33:06 Are shooting guards just tiny small forwards and bad playmaking point guards?
33:48 Brooks Barnhizer and the betting market
35:21 Javon Small
36:05 Is 6-2 too small for the NBA?
37:11 Evaluating international prospects
39:00 Hansen Yang
Wrap-up
40:06 What preparation is good for sports analytics (classes, programming languages)?
42:29 Farewell
Congrats to OKC. They were by far the best regular season team.
The Hali injury robbed us of a classic G7.
On to the offseason, finally.
FROM SHAMS:
[[
BREAKING: The Phoenix Suns are trading two-time NBA Finals MVP Kevin Durant to the Houston Rockets for Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks, the No. 10 pick in the 2025 draft and five second-round picks, sources tell ESPN
]]
Seems cheap for HOU?