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Mar 23, 2023·edited Mar 23, 2023Pinned

FYI new post at https://open.substack.com/pub/dubnation/p/warriors-stun-mavericks-in-dallas?r=3lm3s&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

With GP2 update in comments, he said cryptically

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Eric "Clickbait" Apricot strikes again!

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This One Simple Trick will improve your perimeter defense!

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I thought it would add 4 inches to my jump shot

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As my wife says "so that's what your calling it nowadays?"

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"Clickbait" is an anagram of "Eric Apricot". Don't think about it , just trust me

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Well, if you say so. But I personally prefer "I Crap to Rice".

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Masterful E1P plus joy for the game is a lovely way to start the day!

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Clippers vs. Thunder is the only game to watch for tonight if you want to pay attention to what is going on with the teams in the West. Pelicans vs. Hornets is an easy win for the Pelicans, so I wouldn't really pay attention to that game as much.

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umm... I guess we're rooting for the Thunder in that one.

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I'd love to see the Dubs draft an under-appreciated big man who has had 4 years of college basketball coaching and experience. Someone who could learn Kerrball and develop into a nice 3rd big. Who would that be? Um ... no idea. But let a fella dream.

For folks who are ready to shout - it's PBJ! We already have him! He just needs to put on 20 pounds this summer! Maybe :).

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The people are saying it's Trayce Jackson-Davis.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=su2rjM6yfO4

However the people are also saying that he's more of a late first round/early second round pick type of guy (probably not unrelated to the fact that he's already 23 years old lol).

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That sounds like it's right in the Dubs' wheelhouse.

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If only he could find a high calorie sandwich to help him add that weight...

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Yet easily digestible....

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Kris Murray, though he is only 6'8". However, barring disaster he will probably be gone by the time the Warriors pick. Tracye Jackson is probably the only other candidate that fits your criteria, but he would probably be an overdraft for the Warriors unless they trade down. Almost nobody plays 4 years of college ball anymore.

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Jayce Johnson? Lol...

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Im guessing that if the Warriors thought Jayce was an NBA player they would have signed him to a 2-way and not Quinones. The stats look good but so maybe the in person experience isn't so flattering.

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Speaking of soccer, the practice of "diving" [flopping] tapered off quite a lot once the refs were allowed to penalize it. You can even get a yellow card [like a technical, only yellow]. Are the NBA refs allowed to T-up a flopper? Do they have that power and choose not to use it?

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A few years ago, the NBA targeted flopping and for a couple of months they issued some fines. But then they stopped. In theory they still have the power to crack down.

(It’s a bit like when they targeted carrying the ball and made high profile calls on Poole, but then tapered off.)

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Speaking of carrying, Jaden Hardy last night basically carried the ball tucked under his arm most of the game. It was infuriating, if Poole is blatant this was... something worse than blatant...

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Also, Steph was one of the 3ish players fined. James Harden was not.

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Which is why no one takes NBA's points of emphasis very seriously. They know it will last a max of two months, and then get swept back under the rug.

The only real rule 'change' that has stuck, I think, are the player protection changes (landing space, flagrants for fouls above the shoulder, etc.).

I wonder if there are more I'm forgetting, but off the top of my head, I can't think of any.

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Mar 23, 2023·edited Mar 23, 2023

I'm assuming you're talking more rule changes with flexibility because the take-foul and shot call resetting to 14 have obviously changed player behavior. The rip-through no longer being FTs has been is another one.

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yeah, forgot about those.

But, yes, I'm talking about the ones that involve some interpretation by the official.

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The "non-basketball play" by an offensive player has stuck, I think. (E.g. jumping sideways). There's a little more leeway than when the rule was introduced (which is probably for the best) but e.g. I saw CP3 called for moving in someone's lane and slowing down just last month IIRC.

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That's a good one. Yes, agreed.

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Another stake through the heard of soccer simulation is VAR...

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EXCLUSIVE: Mark Cuban protest leaked: https://tinyurl.com/39629dws

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Vestige Worries About Kuminga From His Rookie Year That People Can Stop Worrying About:

1. He'll need to hit the three to create space and stay on the court. A: He does. He always has. You just thought that he wouldn't.

2. He doesn't know where to be on defense. A. He stopped playing positional defense. He just dogs the best player on the other team. Picks? Ha! He goes over them before the ball handler can.

3. He doesn't know where to be on offense. A. Sometimes. But often enough, he knows exactly where to be. He sets the right pick, then cuts to the hoop or flares out. He makes the right read and makes the right pass as well as, say, Wiggins. He's not Draymond or Steph here, but he gets it.

4. He can't be trusted in late game situations. A. Yes, he can.

5. He's young and the game hasn't slowed down for him. A. I hope it never does. He's moving faster than everyone else and I love it. Also I'm bored of the whole "game slowed down for him" meme, it gets tiresome. I'm looking at you, Kerr, you cliche-generating machine.

6. He has to learn how to be a winner. A. He has more rings than twelve NBA franchises. Also, I hate the tautological "learn how to be a winner" meme even more than my previous rant.

7. He needs to improve at the free throw line and as a ball handler in traffic. A. *cough cough cough*

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Every time I think I know the laws in Kumingastan, they change them on me.

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Response from a JK-skeptic:

1. I'm not sure I'm a believer in his 3P shot yet. He shot .336 last year and is .362 this year. League average is .361. And most importantly, his FT% remains .678. He might be good enough to not get Russel Westbrook'd on defense, but I don't buy it as a weapon.

2. His on ball defense has been quite good this year and his biggest improvement YoY. Definitely a major strength. His off ball defense is still kinda meh.

3. Agreed, and more recently it's been improving. He has seemed to go through hot stretches before and reverted though.

4. Sometimes he can. Sometimes he can't.

5. To me, this boils down to more assists, fewer turnovers, better focus off ball. I do think he's gotten better.

6. Translating individual play into winning basketball is the single most important skill to have. He remains negative in On-Off, and whether he can turn that around is the biggest question I have for him as a player. For example, Franz, who looks worse by efficiency and per 36 stats, still kills JK by on-off numbers.

7. I'd add a little more rebounding and off ball defense, but there's is glimmering potential leaking through.

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I thought the whole he's lazy thing was ridiculous. The guy moved as a kid from a different continent, changed schools 3 times then was drafted at 18. That takes a lot of gumption.

I do agree that he hated the idea of the G League. Clearly sending him down wasn't productive.

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8. He fouls too much. A. If you ask him to be Draymond or Looney and defend centers and switch out to slashers, you're probably right. He's fouling far less because he knows what to do in the open court against a ball handler: get in his grill but keep your hands to yourself.

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I think part of that is that he seems to receive coaching really, really well.

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I think he was really frustrated trying to prove himself for a long time before the coaching clicked with him.

I remember early in the season in late November/December after he'd started getting back intermittently in the rotation, and he'd had a really good defensive game, I read some story about how Kerr called him out for a great game and Kuminga was all confused because he hadn't taken a shot. That was probably a pivotal point in his development of rapport with the coaching staff, and he's grown leaps and bounds in the last few months.

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Leaps and bounds is right

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I don't remember that story, but it speaks volumes.

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Agreed. An underrated part of his overall makeup is that he's modest and keeps it simple. On or off court the only impression you get is that he's ready to learn and to sacrifice. He takes instruction quickly, which is hard to do, and seems to have no particular ego to get in the way. that's really really valuable. Steph-like in that way.

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Agree on all but on point 5, him moving faster than everyone else is actually the proof that the game has slowed down for him. The way he anticipates and reacts is very, very fast, which again is proof that he is processing things extraordinarily well i.e. game slowed down. When this happened for Dray, he became a completely different player. We are seeing the same for Jonathan.

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Totes, that's what I wanted to say but you did so now I look stoopid god whaT an unfair world

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Mar 23, 2023Liked by Eric Apricot

Rant incoming:

Once again, there was bitching about JMG’s presence in the lineup in the Game Thread, as if he’s some sort of magic loss pill. Despite his slow start to the season, the man is getting 16.5 points and 9.3 rebounds per 36 on .646 TS% (league average TS%: 58%). He’s been bringing consistent energy and offense on both sides of the ball. Since the All Star break, he’s made 41% of this 3-pointers! I’d say that’s pretty fucking great.

Two questions:

1. What exactly are people expecting from a minimum salary backup big?

2. When you include is availability, is he really a big drop off from what OPJ and Bjelica gave the team last year?

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Well, hmm. I'm not a big fan of JMG but I accept that he's about what you could expect (or maybe even better) for a 3rd big on a vet min contract. I have no delusions that we can always sign OPJ-like wonders. Bjelica had good moments but (not bothering to look up the facts) he had a lot of weak performances and injuries during the season. He did step up in the playoffs in a way that I just don't think JMG will be able to.

For the regular season, we're going to have to accept that we will have some below average guys at the end of the bench and situations/injuries will lead to them getting playing time.

But - if we have to lean on JMG for more than very tiny numbers of spot minutes in the playoffs that will mean that we have injuries that are not possible to otherwise replace. I really hope we see him for maybe 2 - 4 minutes a game at most. That will mean a healthy squad.

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Others have said it below, and he's fine on offense, a decent rebounder, and a big body. But just look at the Doncic/Green charge/block call. He could have/should have been there to take the charge (even the ref agreed in real time!), but he's just a quarter step too slow to react and then a quarter step too slow in his movement. He's ok for a vet min big, which is fine... but not what you'd want from your 3rd big off the bench.

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Your 3rd big off the bench is highly likely to be vet min big, especially with the top-heavy Warriors.

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Sure... he's ok, just not great. OPJ & Bjelica were great.

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There was as much bitching about Bjeli during last season - until he played really well in the playoffs - as there is about JMG this year.

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It's the Andy Liu effect on discourse.

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Mar 23, 2023·edited Mar 23, 2023

Two replies:

1. I love the phrase "magic loss pill". And I agree JMG is not one.

2. I think many people are mad that JMG, like Absolutely Everyone Available Including OPJ, is not last year's OPJ. OPJ flat-out closed games last year and was a great player for us. He was a starter on a championship team, not a backup center on a minimum salary. Unreasonable expectations/comparisons often lead to anger.

3. It is one of my rants that plus/minus is a noisy stat that is not remotely a comprehensive picture of all the variables (rotation, game situation, opponent, 497 others) at play during someone's time on the court.

4. I may or may not understand how counting works, which may factor into my distrust of statistics.

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PostScript:

A better way to look at JMG is that he was the Warrior's choice over Jordan Bell, who many on WarriorsArmchairGM.basement were clamoring for.

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Anyone who was clamoring for Jordan Bell needs to put away the nostalgia pills.

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The cupboard was pretty bare.

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> 2. When you include is availability, is he really a big drop off from what OPJ and Bjelica gave the team last year?

I'm not a JMG hater, but yeah he's a big drop off from both imo.

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"In 17 appearances since the trade deadline JMG played 232 minutes (13.7mpg)

In those minutes, the team is a -24.2 per 100 possessions. The next closest warriors in that span is Ty Jerome, at -4.7."

https://twitter.com/TommyGunnNBA/status/1637992174691426305

He is terrible. He should not play.

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In the last like 7 games he's been at -21 net ratings in 15 minutes a game, dude is horrible defensively

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Yes, absolutely, shouldn't expect more from a min salary. But he's a bad player.

His defense is terrible, he fouls too much and TS% is not a particularly good metric for bigs.

He is a HUGE drop off from OPJ last year. OPJ was a starter in the NBA finals. JMG should not get any playoff minutes.

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Is TS% a bad metric for a guy who shoots as many threes as JMG?

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Warriors lucked out last season when they got OPJ for a vet minimum. He should be getting paid at least $10 million/year based on how well he plays.

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OPJ is a fine player when he can play but then there's his injury history, which is the reason we were able to get him. He has played 8 games this year, hardly worth $10 million.

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"JaMychal Green has the worst defensive ON/OFF rating among bigs with minimum 300 minutes in non-garbage time per @cleantheglass. Defense is 8.9 points worse per 100 possessions with him ON vs OFF."

https://twitter.com/fakelogic/status/1638567383836282880

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Lol exactly, that's what we are seeing, we lose points when he plays, especially next to Jordan poole

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I think the answer is that many people are expecting to see starter worthy players on these minimum 'value rehab' contracts.

It's kind of silly in the way you mention, but we've had some good luck with them before (OPJ, DDV).

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Yes he's a big dropoff from OPJ but otherwise fair points.

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I think Porter's BBIQ and defense were better, but JMG is a pretty solid scorer and interior presence.

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Mar 23, 2023·edited Mar 23, 2023

OPJ was a better rebounder too, iirc. Green is a passable Bjeli replacement.

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Bjelica could really pass in a way JMG cannot. They ran offense through Bjelica.

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Mar 23, 2023·edited Mar 23, 2023

Kind of sad Beli didn't stick ... can you imagine him getting comfortable in year 2 and 3? As a cheap, pass-out-of-the-post option for the second unit, he would have been hard to beat (if something like a TPMLE would have gotten him to sign).

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Last season the Warriors had an 11% assist percentage with Bjelica on the floor and 4.9% with him off the floor, a difference of +6.1%.

This season the Warriors have a 6.4% assist percentage with JMG on the floor and 8.9% with him off the floor, a difference of -2.5%.

Passing big men are a key to Kerr's offense.

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What are you basing that on? Last year, OPJ averaged 9.3 rebounds per 36, exactly what JMG is averaging this year.

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Wit JMG on court, the Warriors net TRB% is -1.9%, meaning they are outrebounded as a team by nearly 2%. Off court, the Dubs outrebound opponents by +1.4%. Some of that is JMG is often in instead of Looney, but the point is the Warriors rebound worse when JMG is out there.

With OPJ, the Warriors were an elite rebounding team.

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OPJ was playing a stretch 4, mostly - JMG is playing as a 5, mostly. You'd expect a 5 to outrebound a 4 based on positioning.

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Preach!

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Mar 23, 2023Liked by Eric Apricot

Appreciate the GP2 Grateful Dead reference. So Oakland / SF.

I’m not alone in appreciating how the dubs and the dead cultures overlap. Never mind Sarunas and the friends and family of Bill Walton, Bob attending games… Oracle (the arena) was a magical place for fans of both. The unique concrete structure of the ceiling, frequently noticed while in a magical musical moment, was a big driver in my family’s decision to buy Warriors season tix right after Jerry died. Just couldn’t get enough of that place, I guess.

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Mar 23, 2023Liked by Eric Apricot

“Dancing on the Pancreas” is my latest techno vibe.

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I know. It's relentless.

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Definitely one of Otto Porter Jr's best songs

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You ever find that there are two DNHQ posts going on at the same time, for example this one as well as last night's postgame, and you're not sure where the current discussion is really going on, so you go hang out in the wrong one and all of a sudden you find out that you're the only one there? That's how Dallas felt when they were on the wrong end of the court.

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You know when you lean back in a chair and you lean back a little too far, but just at the last second you catch yourself? I feel like that all the time.

--Stephen Wright

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Is there something about Texas that turns great players into shameless floppers? Luka is so talented, but he’s 50/40/90 in whine, flop, and mope.

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He did learn flopping in Real Madrid, where he played with Masters of Flopping Facundo Campazzo & Rudy Fernandez

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Luka didn't learn to flop in Texas... but it does seem to fit in just fine.

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have you been to Texas - all big hats big guns and cowards!

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OK don't excommunicate me, but could Draymond's seal of Bullock have been called a moving pick?

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I’m not sure it’s ever called if it’s on your own defender. It’s definitely been called when it’s a pick on another defender. When it’s your own defender, it’s just fighting for positioning.

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Yes. We’ve seen that called before

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I don't know I've ever seen a moving screen called that close to the basket.

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Yeah, when it’s that close to the basket, one could argue he was trying to box him out

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If there's one area where the Warriors cheat successfully, and have for a long time, it's moving screens.

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Mar 23, 2023·edited Mar 23, 2023

yes. I think most successful 'seal' plays are actually moving picks.

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What are the rules around screens waaaayyy off the ball? Off ball and on ball rules seem to be quite different...

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Mar 23, 2023·edited Mar 23, 2023

This odd one of the big reasons why the Dubs get fewer foul calls. A lot of opposing non called fouls are off ball.

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Possibly, but usually that’s for when you’re either moving side-side to prevent the guy from going around you, or you’re moving into him from a distance. When you already have body contact and then you push him away, it’s treated more like a screening out of a rebound.

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Yes, it was exactly like jostling for a rebound, but there was no rebound to go for .... I dunno

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It was more like jostling for post position instead of a rebound.

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Exactly...

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The Steph layup play shows why Luka will never lead a team to a championship. It's a do-or-die defensive sequence but Luka manages to completely take himself out of the play. Watch around the 4:00 mark of the video as Kuminga races up to set a screen for Steph - Luka halfheartedly jogs up so there's no way he can switch out on Steph and then Steph blows by for the easy layup thanks to Dray's seal on Bullock. If you can't put in a strong effort on a potentially game-influencing play, then why are you out there and how do you think your teammates feel about busting their butts while you go through the motions?

Maybe he's worn out, but that's on him too (and maybe Kidd) - he's never seemed to be in good shape and we saw the same thing in the WCFs last year where he'd get his numbers but got cooked on the defensive end repeatedly.

Don't even get me started about his obsessive whining after every play.

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The main fault for that play lies with Kleber, to be fair. You can't let Curry go right in that situation.

But yeah I agree, his lack of effort to try to scramble defensively after Kleber fucked up was noticeable.

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Kleber is ultimately on an island with Steph and a screener and no good options because Doncic is so far behind Kuminga's screen. It's hard for me to fault him for getting beat there by the best offensive player in NBA history.

Whether Kleber erred or not, it depends on the coverage, imo. Either Kleber is supposed to be ICEing and Doncic needs to be 2-3 steps closer to the sideline in drop coverage, or Kleber needs to force Steph to the switch or trail over the top... and then maybe trap so Steph isn't iso'd on Doncic... but Doncic is so far away that he's not ready to meet Steph or engage an effective trap.

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One thing I love about Kerrball is that the Dubs are judicious using the high Steph PNR. That play worked because the Mavs hadn't seen it much and the Dubs took advantage of the personnel involved (Kleber and Luka). I don't fault Kleber too much there because Steph fooled him by going right when the screen from JK was coming from the left. If Steph used the screen going the other way, he would have had a wide-open FT line jumper because of Luka's indifferent close-out. Either way, Mavs were screwed.

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I think this is overstated. Yes, it was a poor sequence for Luka but he has been out of the lineup, and constantly carries his entire team. I think he certainly has the talent and leadership to lead a team to a championship if they put the right pieces around him, as seen when the Suns went home earlier than expected last year. I believe he also won one or two Euro championships (?)

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he is a volume scorer despite all the talent he may have and JFK made him so last night as well

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Luka is soft. All the talent in the world yet he's a baby when it comes to contact. No wonder why he said it's harder to score in Europe. They let players play defense over there. Imagine if they did that again in the NBA.

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In Europe we go extremely slow and the area is full of people

And we play 40 dirty minutes

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I don't really think he's soft, but he's definitely a grifter and flopper. Those two things aren't necessarily mutually exclusive.

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Mar 23, 2023·edited Mar 23, 2023Liked by Eric Apricot

Reggie Bullock's podcast should be called "The Other Side of Draymond's Buttocks."

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Side Show Bob gets side-swiped

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who will be the butt of the joke in the first episode!

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The Bullock behind the ballock

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