Explain: Playoff Jimmy Butler and Playoff Steph Curry close out the Grizzlies, clinch playoffs
pack up the van
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In this episode, we analyze the thrilling conclusion of the Warriors' Play-In game against the Grizzlies, on 2025-04-16-MEM-GSW. We highlight key plays and maneuvers by Jimmy Butler and Stephen Curry, such as the strategic attempts to force beneficial switches and defensive teamwork, all culminating in the clutch shots by Steph Curry.
Starring Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler, Moses Moody, Brandin Podziemski and Draymond Green. With Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, Zach Edey, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Scottie Pippen Jr.
https://dubnationhq.com/p/warriors-rockets-playoff-roundtable new fresh thread
Since I knew very little about the Houston Rockets, I decided to do a statistical deep dive onto their squad and then based on that try to construct a gameplan for the Warriors!! This'll be a bit long, so hold onto your jerseys!!
Houston’s dominance on the glass is best in the league, particularly on the offensive end (1st in OREB%, 1st in REB%). Their league-leading putback volume (28th percentile in efficiency though), driven by Alperen Sengun and Amen Thompson’s tenacity, fuels their second-chance scoring. The Warriors, while strong rebounders themselves (7th in REB%, 4th in OREB%), must commit to gang-rebounding to neutralize this edge. So how can we neutralize this edge? Kevon Looney’s size and rebounding prowess demand increased minutes, with Trayce Jackson-Davis potentially stepping in for added paint presence. Allowing Houston’s elite offensive rebounds and putbacks to pile up is a recipe for disaster.
The Rockets’ glaring weakness on offense is their stagnant ball movement (dead last in assist%). Their offense hinges on Fred VanVleet, the orchestrator with a 92nd percentile passer rating, and Jalen Green, a shot-creator who uses the threat of his scoring to effectively open up shots for teammates (88th percentile Crafted OPM). The Warriors must disrupt this flow by forcing the ball out of their hands, pushing Dillon Brooks, Thompson, or Sengun to make decisions from the perimeter. These three aren’t equipped to replicate VanVleet and Green’s playmaking—Brooks is a poor passer, Thompson lacks a jumper, and Sengun thrives in the post, not outside. This approach exposes the Warriors to easier scoring from the pick-and-roll roll man (often Sengun), but Houston’s dismal 3.4 percentile scoring in roll-man situations and Dray/Looney's elite defensive instincts will allow for them to tag the ballhandler and swiftly recover to the roller shutting down that threat.
When the ball swings to Brooks, close out aggressively to deny his trigger-happy threes (his best shot, he's one dimensional but good in that dimension). Force him to drive or pass—both play to the Warriors’ advantage, as Brooks struggles to draw fouls and his passing is subpar. If the ball reaches Thompson or Sengun on the perimeter, dare them to shoot. Thompson’s nonexistent outside shot and Sengun’s limited range let the Warriors sag off, fortify the paint, and prioritize rebounding to stifle Houston’s offensive board dominance.
On the offensive end, the Warriors must be strategic. Sengun’s average rim protection (84th percentile Crafted DPM) for a big seems exploitable, but Ime Udoka’s defensive scheme transforms this into a mirage. Houston’s collective rim protection—every player from VanVleet to Thompson contributes—ranks their paint defense fifth-best within 6 feet of the rim. Direct halfcourt attacks at the basket are tough, so the Warriors should capitalize on transition (55th percentile scoring) to strike before Houston’s defense sets. In the halfcourt, initiate drives to collapse Houston’s team-oriented rim protection, then kick out for catch-and-shoot spot-ups, where Golden State excels (62nd percentile). Butler will likely excel in this role. With that being said, this demands perimeter shooting, which could reduce Jonathan Kuminga’s minutes. Looney’s rebounding and size to clog the paint is indespensable, but we also need to punish the Rockets team rim protection defense, so we need shooters to stretch the floor. Hence, Kuminga might get less minutes than people think in this matchup.
To summarize, the Warriors must counter Houston’s rebounding with Looney-led gang-rebounding, dismantle their offense by neutralizing VanVleet and Green, and exploit their poor assist % by forcing lesser playmakers to create. Offensively, attacking in transition to get easier points and drive-and-kick plays will unlock Golden State’s spot-up game. Watch out Kerr, I'm coming for your job!!