88 Comments

Dowtin not bad with SC, 20 on good efficiency, +5. We should try him.

Expand full comment
Oct 30, 2021Liked by Eric Apricot

Ah, high tag. I've noticed some other teams (was it Portland in the preseason, maybe?) doing a kind of similar defense, committing to a whole high trap on Steph for a couple moments, but then one of them recovers away pretty quickly.

The biggest weakness of proper high tag is that during the recovery after the tag there can be a gap where the ball handler is wide open for a long three, so it doesn't work that well against guys who are happy to pull up from that distance. I'm guessing that's why other teams do a harder high trap on Steph, rather than the quick "high-five, I'm out" switch/unswitch that worked on vintage LeBron. (Maybe it's worse on him now that he shoots more & better but drives less?) Probably the Warriors would apply the same principle (trap instead of tag) to defend, say, Lillard.

Anyway it's cool the Warriors used this to get the ball out of Morant's hands and tie the game. It looks like they either got the go-ahead or forced overtime, but for some reason I can't remember what happened after that. Oh well, looking forward to the next one!

Expand full comment

Lol Melo celebrates too much for a guy that scores a lot

Expand full comment

Man, Mobley is impressive. I'm curious to see how we match up against them if they run this 3 big lineup against us too

Expand full comment

Clips lose to Portland, now 1-4. PG13 put up 42 but they still got beat by 19. I wonder if their fans are freaking out.

Expand full comment

Man, they seemed really good when we saw them. I wasn't expecting them to start off this badly. I guess they'll be excited for Ibaka to come back.

Expand full comment

Feel bad for him because Bledsoe sucks and RJ is not really reliable.

Expand full comment

Preseason box score:

https://gleague.nba.com/games/20211029/MXCSCW/

Moody with a bunch of assists and turnovers so they probably put him on ball and had him try a lot of stuff, which is what the G-League is for.

Expand full comment

Turning it over a ton to show he fits in with the NBA club

Expand full comment

Watching Lakers currently losing to the Cleveland Cavaliers, who I forgot were a team. Got the popcorn machine on high

Expand full comment

Mobley outplaying AD?

Expand full comment

YUP

Expand full comment

Are the cavs geniuses for playing Mobley at the 3? lol

Expand full comment

Or is Markkanen the 3 at 6'11" 240? haha

Expand full comment

I don't understand the Cavs lineup. There are no wings. They start Jarrett Allen, Mobley, and Markkanen, plus two point guards, Sexton and Garland. Top two guys off the bench: Ricky Rubio, point guard, and Kevin Love, power forward. These guys need a healthy dose of 3-and-D.

Expand full comment

I love that this absolutely mad lineup is working because it's fun seeing the NBA meta get broken and repair itself

Expand full comment

I've never understood Markkanen. He needs to decide if he's good or not.

Expand full comment

Outplaying EVERYBODY

Expand full comment

Damn, Alfonzo McKinnie and his fellow Capitanes crushed the Sea Dubs 54-26 on the boards

Expand full comment

Zo 31 on 14/25 😳 Jesus, chili diet does wonders

Expand full comment

PJ Tucker (2006 draft) talks about how being a "tweener"/positionless was a drawback when he first entered the league. He got cut his rookie year, went overseas of five years, and then when he came back to the NBA being positionless was now a good thing.

https://youtu.be/vSKrLR34dOM?t=270

Expand full comment

Irrelevant but odd nugget of trivia. Denver has thoroughly confused me by obtaining Jeff and Jamychal Green. It seems rather redundant, not only for the person who makes the shirts, but look at these 2020-21 stats:

Jeff: 27 minutes: 11 pts 4 reb. 50% FG 41% from three, 77% FT

Jamychal: 19 minutes 8.1 pts 4.8 reb. 46% FG 40% from three 80% FT

Jeff is much more of a veteran who has played for every team and used to be a bit more of a scoring threat, Jamychal is more athletic; but you could hardly find two more similar players.

Expand full comment

High efficiency multi positional defenders who can shoot the three/score efficiently are never superfluous. They ensure that Jokic always has a spacer at the 4 next to him (allowing him to maximize his passing + ensuring space for him to operate in the post).

It also ensures that when Jokic sits, they can play Jeff/Jamychal together and have two bigs off the bench who space/play defense.

Expand full comment

Get it, nugget?

Expand full comment
Oct 30, 2021Liked by Eric Apricot

Duarte came out of the gates hot but honestly hasn't been all that efficient overall (not horrible, but below average). Mitchell has been sensational defensively but has struggled to shoot the ball. Murphy has been a quality three point shooter but hasn't offered much else, and I definitely haven't watched the Pels but I expect it's mostly catch and shoot. Kispert hasn't really done anything.

In general I don't think any of these win now prospects have proven themselves worthy of a lottery pick just yet (although I think all have probably shown themselves worthy of a first round pick except Kispert). Still extremely early though.

Expand full comment

Wagner and Mitchell look the part, but the real move was to package Wiseman and the the picks to trade up for Mobley *ducks*

Expand full comment

Even with tonight’s shooting inefficiency, I thought Franz Wagner has been even more impressive than my youngish adult son Davion and probably the more impressive of the High floor rookies

Expand full comment

Wagner/Moody was my ideal draft and it hurt to see that it was actually possible and didn't happen lol. Rooting for him for sure, I think his ceiling is quite a bit higher than people give him credit for.

Expand full comment

Makes me wonder what Moody's numbers would look like if he was drafted to a weaker team that could afford to play him 20-30 minutes off the bat.

Expand full comment

Honestly Moody has looked so good in limited minutes, I'm surprised Kerr hasn't found more time for him. On a worse team he would probably be putting up some big numbers (inconsistencies aside)

Expand full comment

Crap. Kispert was my guy. But i haven't checked in at all yet. I'm just gonna say it's way too early so gimme (him) more time...

Expand full comment

It's obviously way too early to draw any type of conclusion, I'm just interested in who ends up being the best of the "win now" guys (specifically Duarte/Mitchell/Murphy/Kispert/Butler, my pre-draft prediction was Butler who also hasn't done much yet).

Expand full comment

I’d like to know what health concerns were bad enough for Butler to fall to 46 was it? He was one of the most impressive rookies in preseason

Expand full comment

He had that heart condition thing that he initially wasn't cleared for I think?

And yeah, he plays for the Jazz so I don't fault him for not getting in the rotation the way I might if he was on a worse team. We'll see if he gets some traction later in the season if/when some injuries hit.

Expand full comment

Mo Bambas development is good news for Wisemans development arc

Expand full comment

I've actually been thinking this exact thing, people always compare Wiseman to Ayton and JJJ from the 2018 draft but I think Bamba might be a better comparison.

Expand full comment

If Wiseman becomes a replacement level C in year 4, that is terrible news for us.

Expand full comment

The 120 ORtg and 113 DRtg seem aspirational.

Expand full comment

You really call 14 and 9 with 41% on 3s on nearly 5 attempts per game replacement center? You and I have a much different definition of what would constitute terrible. Even if let’s say he comes down to 36, 37 percent for the year that’s anything but replacement. Mo Bamba looked every bit as raw as Wiseman rookie year and looked every bit as dominant as Poole preseason.

Expand full comment

And like Wiseman, Bamba has extreme physical tools. And like Wiseman, Bamba was pretty bad as a shooter coming into the league. Although Bamba showed more overall in college (obviously).

Expand full comment

Is he good enough to stay on the floor defensively is the question, especially in the playoffs. Wiseman averaged more than 14 and 9 per 36 last year, yet was one of the worst players in the league. The raw production matters very little, especially for Cs who are completely dependent on their PIs for points.

Expand full comment

May I offer you some faith in Milojevic's guidance and drills?

Expand full comment
Oct 29, 2021Liked by punk basketball

DLee and JTA questionable.

Game against OKC.

Should be a good opportunity for Moody and Kuminga to get some run.

Expand full comment

Woah, JK is back?!

Expand full comment

Probable

Expand full comment

I can die happy. Hb on par with Steph on terms of TPA

https://twitter.com/NBA_Math/status/1454125877634244613?s=20

Expand full comment

Not familiar with TPA, what is that?

Expand full comment

Tuna Points Added. Wiggins' TPA is off the charts.

(OK, I realize I gotta stop doing this now.)

Expand full comment

Got it... OBPM + DBPM but denormalized, ie. weighted by number of possessions

Expand full comment

Also here's the warriors one with Poole and Steph on opposite spectrums

https://twitter.com/NBA_Math/status/1454100718667894791?s=20

Expand full comment

Sooo... we have one superhero level player in Steph carrying a bunch of below average scrubs. On the bright side, we're 4-1 despite it looking like it's '20-21 all over again.

Expand full comment

On a less silly note, I find it hard to believe that Damion Lee has been playing below average, let alone /that/ far below average.

Expand full comment

Agreed. I feel like that one doesn't seem right

Expand full comment
author

Damion had superheroic qualities last night, but was also a team-worst -13. We all know +/- is deceptive in small samples, but it also invites us to look more closely at the actual gameplay

Expand full comment

Marc J. Spears

@MarcJSpears

·

13m

The Golden State Warriors say they have exercised the fourth-year contract option on guard Jordan Poole and third-year contract option on center James Wiseman, both of which are for the 2022-23 season.

Expand full comment

I'm ... ambivalent. Especially Wiseman. Would it have been wiser a month or two to wait to see how he comes back from injury?

Expand full comment

It would be obscene for the team not to pick up the option on a #2 pick. If they were not planning to pick it up, they should have already traded him for a protected 2028 2nd round pick.

Expand full comment

It probably helps both players' development for them to have the confidence that the team is fully invested in them.

Expand full comment

The deadline was Monday, Nov 1, so they didn't jump the gun too much.

https://www.goldenstateofmind.com/2021/10/29/22753273/warriors-jordan-poole-james-wiseman-options

Expand full comment
Oct 29, 2021Liked by punk basketball

Some thoughts on the game last night.

Dray was 3 of 8 on threes over 78 MIN in preseason (~1 attempt per 10 min). So far in the regular season, 2 of 3 in 168 MIN (1 attempt per 56 min).

https://videos.nba.com/nba/pbp/media/2021/10/28/0022100070/346/2185be99-5d91-537a-4342-5d277fad1d3c_1280x720.mp4

He has to take this shot. There's no way a 5 MEM vs 4 GSW is going to result in anything good.

-----

These were the Curry TOs:

https://www.nba.com/stats/events/?ContextMeasure=TOV&EndPeriod=0&EndRange=31800&GameID=0022100070&PlayerID=201939&RangeType=0&Season=2021-22&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&StartPeriod=0&StartRange=0&TeamID=1610612744&flag=1&sct=plot&section=game

(1) Dray's man sags off and takes away the drive from Curry.

(2) Dray's man sags again. Two guys on Wiggs. Steph's defender is only concerned about running Steph off the line because he knows one of the guys on Wiggs can rotate.

(3) Dray ignored. His man just comes down and pokes the ball away from Steph.

(4) Just good D by MEM.

(5) Bad spacing and a forced pass by Steph.

-----

Dray's TOs looked like he was playing with a 1000ms ping. Bad outlets and bad timing/decisions in general.

JP's TOs were all over the place. Some of it was bad decision-making and the pass into traffic to Loon disturbs me because JP beat his man and didn't take the floater/pull-up... if there was one thing you didn't have to worry about before was JP's confidence in taking a shot. Not sure why he passed it up.

https://videos.nba.com/nba/pbp/media/2021/10/28/0022100070/338/6e33b5c4-9b1f-4d51-3378-a6670dd622eb_1280x720.mp4

Expand full comment

Really love this post, meant to say so earlier. Turnovers happen for a reason, not all are created equal. Sometimes one terrible looking turnover sticks in our minds and colors all the other turnovers that happen from a moment of good defense or a pass forced in desperation when the offense can't get a good look.

Expand full comment

I really wish Draymond were working on getting better. Shooting threes, finishing at the rim. We didn’t need those things from him when KD was around, but with this roster we need a solid 10 points a night from him. And not just for the points, but to keep the D honest to help the other guys out. These turnover videos really show how dangerous it is to have a non shooter on the floor.

Expand full comment

Oh and TIL; an 8-second violation counts as a team TO. It didn't even get credited to a player.

Expand full comment
Oct 29, 2021Liked by punk basketball

I love this post, very important to look behind the superficial and see what is really going on

Expand full comment
Oct 29, 2021Liked by Eric Apricot

Wow thanks so much for that! I felt like we had a lot of unforced TOs but really wanted to see what happened and why... listening to Apricot's E1P series has definitely helped me form that line of thinking

Expand full comment

But was totally draymond's fault.

Expand full comment