Dowtin and Chiozza make absolutely no sense, especially considering our roster's lack of bigs and legit 3 and D guys (I don't think we can trust Otto and Klay to stay healthy and Moody's just a rookie).
Mulder was obviously overplayed as the number 8 guy, but he's more than good enough to be the 15th guy or on a two-way contract. He's a medium volume 40 3PT%, 61 TS% guy. I struggle to see how Chiozza is more useful than that, let alone Dowtin. He would've been a nice addition to eat minutes considering we're going into a season with 3 rookies (including Wiseman) and injury-prone (Klay, OPJ, Loon) and old players (Iggy, Steph, Dray, Bjelica).
I didn't get JTA last year at all. They signed *that* guy - but, but, but, he looked terrible in preseason!
(Now I get it.)
We see these guys for like 5 minutes in preseason, and then maybe highlights or lowlights on Twitter. Front office sees them for hours and hours in practice. I tend to give the FO the benefit of the doubt on talent evaluation, and I'm really crappy at it myself, TBH. For almost 2 years, I saw nothing of value in Jordan Poole's game, thought Looney would never make it, liked Steph, but oh, those glass ankles, etc. etc. So when there's a signing like this that makes me shrug my shoulders, I try not to be Dowtin it too much any more.
They also signed Oubre and Wanamaker and drafted Smiley.
If the guys with a proven track record of talent evaluation (Schlenk and West) were here, I'd have way more faith in these guys. These days, it seems like the owner is way too involved though.
Oh, I agree. I don't get either of our 2 ways. Fortunately, roster a little deeper this year and I'm hoping it doesn't matter who's on the 2-ways because they NEVER play except in garbage time (in which case I'd really want Mulder :D)
Decided to update my WC predictions one last time before the games start for real.
1. Suns
2. Jazz
3. Warriors (up 1). The team looks like they're cooking with gas already, with a deep rotation of guys including Poole, Porter, and Bjelica who should overperform in this system, especially compared to pessimistic predictions like 538's.
4. Clippers (up 1)
5. Nuggets (up 1)
6. Lakers (down 3). Preseason injuries (!!), lack of shooting, and a penchant for turnovers make me think LA is going to struggle more this season than I previously predicted. Yet, as long as AD & LBJ are healthy I have to figure they'll still coast their way into the playoffs.
7. Mavericks (up 1). An undefeated preseason upped my (admittedly vague) sense of the cohesion of this roster.
8. Trail Blazers (down 1). I'm thinking their coaching change is likely to require some adjustment early in the season, and I still have as many question marks as ever about their defense.
We've discussed how it seems to hate the Warriors, but the other surprising one is how it has the Pels so high. Of all the teams that could potentially overperform, they aren't that high on my list. And obviously their model is way more bullish on the Mavs than I am, but that feels like it makes more sense. But the Pels? Am I sleeping on some potential there or is the model just crazy?
Warriors are interesting, feels like there is a massive variance in their potential outcomes depending on hard to predict stuff like health.
I think the Clippers with Kawhi are the clear favorite but I have them in the play-in assuming he doesn't come back. Feel like the West is pretty wide open if he doesn't come back.
I think the Mavs and Grizzlies (and Warriors, for that matter) are going to leverage the momentum they had at the end of last season into growth in 2021.
I expect Luka to synergize better with his teammates and the Grizzlies youth to take a step up, especially JJJ.
I feel like this about the West in general. Possibly the most balanced or wide-open it's been in as long as I've been paying attention to basketball (i.e. like 6 years)
I'm still not seeing the Warriors finishing better than 4th given that Klay will be out for about 1/2 the season. In particular the Suns and Jazz are probably better and while I am no fan of Westbrook's stat padding or defense, LeBron, AD, and Westbrook is a pretty darn good core group. Throw in the possibility that the Mavericks, Grizzlies or Clippers catch fire, and even 4 might be optimistic. That said, I would totally take the Warriors on a bet at any seed if somebody wants to wager on 538's projection that they have a .1% chance to win the championship as Klay will be back in plenty of time for the playoffs.
It’s a good list. Feels like the Mavs and Pelicans could outperform, maybe the Grizzlies as well. Agreed with you that the Lakers are looking bad, and I think Portland is going to struggle mightily. Should be interesting
You have clippers as staying the same as last year with essentially no Kawhi?
I also think Warriors being 3rd could happen but is unlikely.
You're also underestimating the Lakers imo. While I don't think their team will be as effective as they think in the playoffs, they will still do better than 6th.
2. Paul George had an unsustainably high workload (in terms of minutes and creation)
3. They played small with Batum/Morris at the 5 for a hell of a lot of minutes
4. When Utah had 2 out of their 3 best players either outright missing or hurt
I think they'll be good, but that playoff run is not a true reflection of how good they'll be over 82 games as a significant chunk of those thing are probably not sustainable.
Dropping the Lakers from 3rd to 6th may be an overreaction to them sleeping through preseason, but it really does feel like they have a whole lot of mismatched pieces, and I'm not sure who on their team is currently healthy and can hit 3's, besides Lebron and Melo. I'm pretty sure this year's Lakers are still worse than last year's squad (if healthy).
I wanted to drop the Clippers a space or two for lack of Kawhi, but... the rest of their rotation is still really solid, and the next team down (Denver) is also going essentially without some key players like Murray for quite a while. So it kind of broke even.
I shut the video down at "LeBron continues to enjoy his vacay with Andre." Couldn't stop laughing.
I miss the 2020 E1P leitmotif, and it was so nice to hear it again during the part of the video that covered the original version of the play (with Klay).
Dray interview with Derozan. @14:48 Dray compares Kawhi replacing Derozan and them winning a chip with Kerr replacing Mark Jackson and us winning a chip. Says you don't know if the team still would have won. This dude has something against Kerr for real lol
It's actually a great analogy, Kerr is probably as much better than Jackson as Kawhi is than DeRozan lol. Didn't really seem like a dig at Kerr to me btw.
Same, it really captures the impression that "We're pretty sure he made the team better, but the team was already on the upswing, so how sure are you really that that one change was the difference-maker?"
The impression I got which is basically what he said was "yeah we won when we made a coaching change but no one can say that was the reason" when it clearly was.
Steve Kerr had no announcement today on a possible add for the 15th roster spot, but he mentioned Gary Payton II as a possible second-unit player, so you can probably guess where this is headed.
Right, but it’s still the same overall 17-man roster. If they now give the 15th spot to GP2 or Mulder, it seems to me like at least one guard too many and at least one big man too few. But what do I know.
I know Slater is always right, but any chance this is this an Exhibit 10 as opposed to a two-way? Haven’t seen corroboration anywhere…
Oh I know. I meant: how many small guards do we actually need?
If we planned to sign GP2, wouldn't we want a big body on the two-way just as insurance? Of course, maybe there aren't any decent big bodies available...
Bleacher Report reporting Steph & Dray asking for trade to Lakers after Warriors FO did not meet their demand to sign Bradley to multi-year contract. Laker's likely to trade Westbrook, salary filler, and a protected 2nd rounder. Lakers confirmed that future superstar THT will not be included.
Oct 18, 2021Liked by punk basketball, Eric Apricot
Great video. Bjelica fits so well with both Dray and Steph's game, I think he will be a frequent focus of E1P videos this year and I am all about it. I think we will see more depth to his game than the last several teams he has played on have afforded him to show.
Yup. I'm not looking forward to him getting swapped out to the perimeter and getting put on skates by one of the crafty young guards in this league, but overall I love his attitude so far and the fit with the championship core is phenomenal. He's no David West, but he brings a similar degree of clever passing on offense while also being a terror from behind the line, and that's a dimension this team has never had before.
I think he'll have a handful of 20-point games this year. If things go real well, maybe even more. And I'm looking forward to seeing what chemistry he develops with the other guys—will he be hitting Damion Lee all day on cuts the way West and Ian Clark earned their paychecks? How many easy spot-up 3's will he score off JTA's and OPJ's offensive rebounds? Will we get to see him reward Wiseman running the break?
So many exciting things to look forward to this season.
He's not a great individual defender but I think that's partially mitigated by his good team defense instincts; he seems like he knows how to rotate well and is usually in the right spot. I see him as a combination of DWest and Mo Buckets (with longer range).
Apparently I was mistaken and the deadline for GP2 and Mulder to clear waivers is 2 PM. They announced it Friday night but perhaps the move didn't take place until the next afternoon.
I want Mulder on our team! We need all the shooters we can get with Dray/Looney/Iggy/JTA/Wiseman providing no spacing + Wiggins potentially regressing.
Yeah I don't mind them moving on from Mulder. Was kinda hoping for an emergency big man like Mawugbe but I guess they are completely committed to their strategy.
I'd be lying if I said I knew much about Dowtin, and I certainly don't understand having both him and Chiozza. Seems like a wing/forward/big would have made more sense
I dunno. I could respect sacrificing a paycheck for a real principle like "I cannot accept this paycheck if I have to sleep with you for it" but this more like "I am not convinced of the efficacy of your new penicillin (despite all the evidence), and I must therefore, on principle, rely on the application of leeches instead..."
Serious question: didn't AB tryout/workout with the lakers BEFORE he signed the training camp deal with the Ws? They could have offered him then, no?
Or I guess maybe they offered him a non guaranteed at the time and he tried to get a guaranteed one? Anyone know?
Dowtin and Chiozza make absolutely no sense, especially considering our roster's lack of bigs and legit 3 and D guys (I don't think we can trust Otto and Klay to stay healthy and Moody's just a rookie).
Mulder was obviously overplayed as the number 8 guy, but he's more than good enough to be the 15th guy or on a two-way contract. He's a medium volume 40 3PT%, 61 TS% guy. I struggle to see how Chiozza is more useful than that, let alone Dowtin. He would've been a nice addition to eat minutes considering we're going into a season with 3 rookies (including Wiseman) and injury-prone (Klay, OPJ, Loon) and old players (Iggy, Steph, Dray, Bjelica).
Chiozza makes sense. Backup PG is just as big a hole as anything else.
I don't get it with Dowtin, but the 2nd two-way isn't that big of a deal to me, and they can change course if need be.
Our front office does some good things but others are major head scratchers
I didn't get JTA last year at all. They signed *that* guy - but, but, but, he looked terrible in preseason!
(Now I get it.)
We see these guys for like 5 minutes in preseason, and then maybe highlights or lowlights on Twitter. Front office sees them for hours and hours in practice. I tend to give the FO the benefit of the doubt on talent evaluation, and I'm really crappy at it myself, TBH. For almost 2 years, I saw nothing of value in Jordan Poole's game, thought Looney would never make it, liked Steph, but oh, those glass ankles, etc. etc. So when there's a signing like this that makes me shrug my shoulders, I try not to be Dowtin it too much any more.
I know I wasn't the only one who was happy that they signed JTA.
Liked for both the point you made and the horrible pun.
They also signed Oubre and Wanamaker and drafted Smiley.
If the guys with a proven track record of talent evaluation (Schlenk and West) were here, I'd have way more faith in these guys. These days, it seems like the owner is way too involved though.
I'm guessing they offered and Mulder decided to try to get on the main roster somewhere (hope his agent gave him good advice on this ...)
That makes more sense at least. Nevertheless, no reason to get 2 small PGs when our roster has very significant holes.
Oh, I agree. I don't get either of our 2 ways. Fortunately, roster a little deeper this year and I'm hoping it doesn't matter who's on the 2-ways because they NEVER play except in garbage time (in which case I'd really want Mulder :D)
Forget sugar plum fairies, tonight I’m going to bed with visions of Warriors dancing in my head. Let’s kick some Laker ass!
Decided to update my WC predictions one last time before the games start for real.
1. Suns
2. Jazz
3. Warriors (up 1). The team looks like they're cooking with gas already, with a deep rotation of guys including Poole, Porter, and Bjelica who should overperform in this system, especially compared to pessimistic predictions like 538's.
4. Clippers (up 1)
5. Nuggets (up 1)
6. Lakers (down 3). Preseason injuries (!!), lack of shooting, and a penchant for turnovers make me think LA is going to struggle more this season than I previously predicted. Yet, as long as AD & LBJ are healthy I have to figure they'll still coast their way into the playoffs.
7. Mavericks (up 1). An undefeated preseason upped my (admittedly vague) sense of the cohesion of this roster.
8. Trail Blazers (down 1). I'm thinking their coaching change is likely to require some adjustment early in the season, and I still have as many question marks as ever about their defense.
9. Grizzlies
10. Timberwolves
11. Kings
12. Spurs
13. Pelicans
14. Rockets
15. Thunder
(Earlier predictions with justifications for each placement): https://dubnationhq.com/p/dub-nation-hq-comments-of-the-week-53c/comment/3196556
For comparison, 538's model right now has:
1. Jazz
2. Suns
3. Nuggets
4. Mavericks
5–6 (tie). Trailblazers
5–6 (tie). Clippers
7. Pelicans
8. Grizzlies
9. Lakers
10. T-Wolves
11–12 (tie). Spurs
11–12 (tie). Warriors
13. Kings
14. Rockets
15. Thunder
We've discussed how it seems to hate the Warriors, but the other surprising one is how it has the Pels so high. Of all the teams that could potentially overperform, they aren't that high on my list. And obviously their model is way more bullish on the Mavs than I am, but that feels like it makes more sense. But the Pels? Am I sleeping on some potential there or is the model just crazy?
Woah the model has Lakers not making the playoffs. That's gotta be controversial for anyone who cares about these things.
Warriors are interesting, feels like there is a massive variance in their potential outcomes depending on hard to predict stuff like health.
I think the Clippers with Kawhi are the clear favorite but I have them in the play-in assuming he doesn't come back. Feel like the West is pretty wide open if he doesn't come back.
Jazz
Suns
Warriors
Mavs
Lakers
Nuggets
Grizzlies
Trail Blazers
Clippers
Pelicans
Timberwolves
Kings
Spurs
Rockets
Thunder
I think the Mavs and Grizzlies (and Warriors, for that matter) are going to leverage the momentum they had at the end of last season into growth in 2021.
I expect Luka to synergize better with his teammates and the Grizzlies youth to take a step up, especially JJJ.
I feel like this about the West in general. Possibly the most balanced or wide-open it's been in as long as I've been paying attention to basketball (i.e. like 6 years)
Interesting. I think the Clips are fighting to make the play in game.
I read that Frank Vogel is trying to install a new offense that is more dynamic and read and react… will be interesting to see how that goes
It’s what everyone says when they have no shooting
They have enough shooting. They just need to bench Westbrook though (which is politically infeasible).
It’s not political… if it was just political, they never would have traded for him.
Having done a roster check, I think you're too optimistic on the Thunder.
I'd give them 50/50 odds versus the Santa Cruz Warriors.
Hey those are my local Sea Dubs, starring Kuminga Moody and Wiseman. I'll take those odds.
I bet Lu Dort could defend at least two of those guys just fine. ;)
I'm still not seeing the Warriors finishing better than 4th given that Klay will be out for about 1/2 the season. In particular the Suns and Jazz are probably better and while I am no fan of Westbrook's stat padding or defense, LeBron, AD, and Westbrook is a pretty darn good core group. Throw in the possibility that the Mavericks, Grizzlies or Clippers catch fire, and even 4 might be optimistic. That said, I would totally take the Warriors on a bet at any seed if somebody wants to wager on 538's projection that they have a .1% chance to win the championship as Klay will be back in plenty of time for the playoffs.
It’s a good list. Feels like the Mavs and Pelicans could outperform, maybe the Grizzlies as well. Agreed with you that the Lakers are looking bad, and I think Portland is going to struggle mightily. Should be interesting
You have clippers as staying the same as last year with essentially no Kawhi?
I also think Warriors being 3rd could happen but is unlikely.
You're also underestimating the Lakers imo. While I don't think their team will be as effective as they think in the playoffs, they will still do better than 6th.
Remember, the Clippers beat Utah, without Kawhi.
In the playoffs when:
1. Reggie Jackson played like an all-star
2. Paul George had an unsustainably high workload (in terms of minutes and creation)
3. They played small with Batum/Morris at the 5 for a hell of a lot of minutes
4. When Utah had 2 out of their 3 best players either outright missing or hurt
I think they'll be good, but that playoff run is not a true reflection of how good they'll be over 82 games as a significant chunk of those thing are probably not sustainable.
Yeah but I'm not sure that will translate over an entire season
Dropping the Lakers from 3rd to 6th may be an overreaction to them sleeping through preseason, but it really does feel like they have a whole lot of mismatched pieces, and I'm not sure who on their team is currently healthy and can hit 3's, besides Lebron and Melo. I'm pretty sure this year's Lakers are still worse than last year's squad (if healthy).
I wanted to drop the Clippers a space or two for lack of Kawhi, but... the rest of their rotation is still really solid, and the next team down (Denver) is also going essentially without some key players like Murray for quite a while. So it kind of broke even.
Lol. Im guessing that he forgot KL was injured...which changes pretty much everything
I see Lakers @ 4
Dubz @ 6
Clips at 9 or 10
I shut the video down at "LeBron continues to enjoy his vacay with Andre." Couldn't stop laughing.
I miss the 2020 E1P leitmotif, and it was so nice to hear it again during the part of the video that covered the original version of the play (with Klay).
EA is on 100% impulse factor. I’m worried he’s not pacing himself for a real 98 game E1P season…
Our Guy Erico always gives 100%
So will Chiozza be in LA tomorrow to start the season since that spot is empty?
Won't be be with us anyways since the g league season won't start for a while?
Since G-League isn't up that means they can keep him with the big club and not use up callup time.
https://twitter.com/OrlandoMagic/status/1448457570625150976
Dowtin hitting a game winner a few days ago, with bonus footage of Bizarro Mannion getting hyped for him.
I always thought of Nico as the Bizarro Mannion
I think Dowtin hit a game winner for us in the Sacramento games. He definitely has gumption
Ha! Bizarro Mannion
Interesting to see Gonzaga being preseason #1 despite losing 3 starters, two of which were high first rounders.
Should be fun following the Chet Holmgren Chronicles.
Props to the first member who can come up with a good Dowtin Abbey joke. After a few minutes of thought, that's not me...
Dowtins 3s going down like a good cup of tea…?
Nope, I ain’t got one either
It's an upstairs/downstairs contract
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AWACAnGNWO4
Dray interview with Derozan. @14:48 Dray compares Kawhi replacing Derozan and them winning a chip with Kerr replacing Mark Jackson and us winning a chip. Says you don't know if the team still would have won. This dude has something against Kerr for real lol
It's actually a great analogy, Kerr is probably as much better than Jackson as Kawhi is than DeRozan lol. Didn't really seem like a dig at Kerr to me btw.
Same, it really captures the impression that "We're pretty sure he made the team better, but the team was already on the upswing, so how sure are you really that that one change was the difference-maker?"
The impression I got which is basically what he said was "yeah we won when we made a coaching change but no one can say that was the reason" when it clearly was.
https://twitter.com/timkawakami/status/1450203939811446786?s=20
Steve Kerr had no announcement today on a possible add for the 15th roster spot, but he mentioned Gary Payton II as a possible second-unit player, so you can probably guess where this is headed.
I wasn't sure the Dowtin signing (another 6'3" and under guard) implied that GP2 was out of the picture. 🤞
Right, but it’s still the same overall 17-man roster. If they now give the 15th spot to GP2 or Mulder, it seems to me like at least one guard too many and at least one big man too few. But what do I know.
I know Slater is always right, but any chance this is this an Exhibit 10 as opposed to a two-way? Haven’t seen corroboration anywhere…
Or perhaps they cut Chiozza?
Oh I know. I meant: how many small guards do we actually need?
If we planned to sign GP2, wouldn't we want a big body on the two-way just as insurance? Of course, maybe there aren't any decent big bodies available...
I think the Dowtin signing means more for Mulder's chances rather than GP2's.
Shams Charania
@ShamsCharania
· 14m
The Los Angeles Lakers have claimed Avery Bradley off waivers, sources tell @TheAthletic @Stadium.
Bleacher Report reporting Steph & Dray asking for trade to Lakers after Warriors FO did not meet their demand to sign Bradley to multi-year contract. Laker's likely to trade Westbrook, salary filler, and a protected 2nd rounder. Lakers confirmed that future superstar THT will not be included.
/s
Bradley is way too young for the Lakers. It'll never work.
Speaking of which...
Friday, my boss announced to my group that he's retiring. Today, he was picked up by the Lakers.
your grocery order was over 30 years old??
Great video. Bjelica fits so well with both Dray and Steph's game, I think he will be a frequent focus of E1P videos this year and I am all about it. I think we will see more depth to his game than the last several teams he has played on have afforded him to show.
Yup. I'm not looking forward to him getting swapped out to the perimeter and getting put on skates by one of the crafty young guards in this league, but overall I love his attitude so far and the fit with the championship core is phenomenal. He's no David West, but he brings a similar degree of clever passing on offense while also being a terror from behind the line, and that's a dimension this team has never had before.
I think he'll have a handful of 20-point games this year. If things go real well, maybe even more. And I'm looking forward to seeing what chemistry he develops with the other guys—will he be hitting Damion Lee all day on cuts the way West and Ian Clark earned their paychecks? How many easy spot-up 3's will he score off JTA's and OPJ's offensive rebounds? Will we get to see him reward Wiseman running the break?
So many exciting things to look forward to this season.
He's not a great individual defender but I think that's partially mitigated by his good team defense instincts; he seems like he knows how to rotate well and is usually in the right spot. I see him as a combination of DWest and Mo Buckets (with longer range).
Yeah, I thought about the Mo Buckets comparison as well. No way Bjelica has the same supernatural nose for drawing charges though.
Agree. I think DLee is our new master of the charge.
Apparently I was mistaken and the deadline for GP2 and Mulder to clear waivers is 2 PM. They announced it Friday night but perhaps the move didn't take place until the next afternoon.
I want Mulder on our team! We need all the shooters we can get with Dray/Looney/Iggy/JTA/Wiseman providing no spacing + Wiggins potentially regressing.
Prepare to be disappointed then, because they signed Jeff Dowtin to the second two-way spot
I liked him in summer league... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Yeah I don't mind them moving on from Mulder. Was kinda hoping for an emergency big man like Mawugbe but I guess they are completely committed to their strategy.
For me, Mulder proved he could be a serviceable 8th man on a low-seed playoff team. Dowtin has me shrugging.
I'd be lying if I said I knew much about Dowtin, and I certainly don't understand having both him and Chiozza. Seems like a wing/forward/big would have made more sense
OT: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/espn-reporter-allison-williams-leaving-network-over-covid-vaccine-mandate-n1281737
My comment: Buh-bye!
Yeah ... There's no way she does this without some guarantee some Republican donor is gonna funnel money her way.
I dunno. I could respect sacrificing a paycheck for a real principle like "I cannot accept this paycheck if I have to sleep with you for it" but this more like "I am not convinced of the efficacy of your new penicillin (despite all the evidence), and I must therefore, on principle, rely on the application of leeches instead..."
Freedom is just another word for the ability to infect other people with a potentially fatal disease.
I almost spit out my coffee between "screen ayesha" and "stretch it, beli!"