EARLY Game 70: GSW at DET, 4:30pm PT
No Cade, but it's Game 2 of 3 cities in 4 dates
GAME DETAILS
WHO: Golden State Warriors at Detroit Pistons
WHEN: Friday, March 20th, 2026; 4:30pm PDT
WATCH: NBCSBA
Last game
APRIBOT predicts the win probability
Long time readers know that APRIBOT is my projection system. It runs on my humble computer and does not run on LLM AIs. Any mistakes it makes are my fault, so could it please stop messing with my retirement fund.
She thinks GSW have a 32% chance of winning! Which seems high since GSW has been bad and DET has been good, and she doesn’t even know DET just lost Cade.
However, the reason it’s even remotely close is: Yes, this is a bad schedule game for GSW (3rd game of a road trip, long flight), but this is even worse for DET, who are flying back from WAS last night for their 3rd game in 4 nights. This is a net 8% win probability loss for DET from the schedule.
So, this is another game casualty of the over-full NBA schedule. Let’s hope the Other Guys keep leveling up their game to give Steph a warm welcome on his return.
GSW is basically locked into #10 seed plus the #11 or #12 lottery seed at best
FYI I’ve mentioned consistently in the comments that GSW is almost certain to finish in the #10 spot no matter what it does. However, I thought I should run some simulations to see if that really is plausible, and it turns out APRIBOT does agree with me.
APRIBOT thinks considering Recent form, there is a 96% chance of finishing #10, 3% change of #9 and 1% chance of #8.
Here is APRIBOT’s projection for likely lottery seeds. She thinks GSW is almost certain to land at the #11 or #12 lottery seed and have about a 7% chance to win the lottery, assuming GSW loses out of the Play-In. If GSW win the Play-In, then they will get something like the #15 pick.
So, GSW is not in position to tank or push hard. They could throw the Play-In but that would be an insult to Steph Curry and everyone on the team. So everyone should play their best and keep improving as players and as a team.
Let’s Go Dubs!