Dub Nation HQ Comments of Week, plus open thread

Three days that rocked Dub Nation

Helpful hint: Every commenter’s name is a link that leads back to the original comment.

First, some self-congratulations

If you can’t crow when you get lucky and predict the future, then when can you?

• (June 18 2023, four days before the draft) Eric Apricot (11 ♡):

  My gut tells me (i.e. I have zero proof of this) that GSW strongly prefers a more mature prospect (like Trayce Jackson-Davis, Jaime Jaquez, or sort of Podziemski) that are seen as a reach at #19, so they are trying to see if they can trade down a few spots and pick up some assets. But it’s a dangerous game as all these guys seem to be quietly rising into the range where it would be no surprise to see them go #16-#30. I wouldn’t be surprised if GSW can’t move the pick and end up “reaching”.

Just about got every sentence right (Larry Harris confirmed they chose to not move down because of intel that they would lose Podz) and nailed the two draft picks. Whew!

Disclaimer: Past results are not indicative of future performance.

Wild Draft Day: Chris Paul for Poole and… — JUN 23

the rise of Win Now and Analytics Drafting

• Eric Apricot (27 ♡):

  I want to correct a dangerous misconception about Chris Paul. I’ve seen a lot of careless talk that he is the most despised Warriors Villain in history. THIS IS NOT AT ALL TRUE.

  Even though he won a Warriors Villain for Life vote, in fact he lost a runoff vote against James Harden for most despised, so he is only the second most hated villain.

  Please correct your records. Thank you.

  https://dubnationhq.com/p/honorary-warriors-for-life-master

• Nadav (16 ♡):

  Are Steph and CP3 the best father/son combo of all time?

• belilaugh (16 ♡):

  > They linked up with the Wizards again, agreed to add Patrick Baldwin Jr. into their outgoing package and in a roundabout way acquired that 57th pick for cash considerations. Then they used it to grab Jackson-Davis, a prospect they coveted, behind-the-scenes manipulating him deeper into the second round and into their grasp, in part, because Dunleavy has a strong relationship with Jackson-Davis’ agent — James Dunleavy, Mike’s brother.

  https://theathletic.com/4634398/2023/06/23/warriors-nba-draft-trade-baldwin-jackson-davis/

  The Warriors "manipulated TJD deeper into the second round and into their grasp" with a promise of giving him a multi-year contract. So for all of those wondering why he fell to 57, that's why.

• TwoRingTest (15 ♡):

  I've settled down this morning (part of me wants to go back and delete about 1/2 my posts last night ... draft night is like being on crack, apparently).

  1. Podz, fine. He's young, they like him a lot. I just can't help the feeling that MDJ drafted the guy in the draft that played the most like him. Vlade disease of overvaluing what you know. Hopefully not.

  2. Trayce for PBJ ... odds are it works out better for us this year and next. No idea for the long term. But, getting a rim protector is huge, so I'm prepared to retire my sandwich jokes without bitterness.

  3. CPIII for Poole, RR. Kinda OK! I think Poole's going to have a fine career (the Jordan Clarkson comps may be spot on), and lord is he going to light it up next season in Washington. But Paul wins, and he's really going to get the maximum out of Moody and Kuminga and Wiggins.

  Of the five prospects, I was most OK with Poole leaving, because of the dynamic with Draymond.

  I just hope Paul has signed off on the idea of being a backup to Steph. If they didn't clear it with him, we may have an uncomfortable few weeks.

• Ando (13 ♡):

  In that case it’sanogo for the Warriors to sign him.

• Loonatic (13 ♡):

  The morning after, gag-reflex on CP3 quelled by a lot of coffee and a good night's sleep, I am proud of Mikey D, who really ticked a lot of boxes:

  - Dray vs JP - done

  - Second unit production and younguns growth: we got a leader now in CP3, assuming he's willing; our bench could be a juggernaut this year!

  - Defensive, passing big: TJD!

  - Shooting to compensate for defensive big's lack thereof: Podz!

  - Second apron and Dray and Klay re-signing calamities averted: swapping JP's for CP3's contract!

  I'm especially glad we are going to give Moody and JK a chance to show growth. Not bad to have the G-League's MIP as another roster filler. The Dubs come into this season with all the ingredients to play our style without last season's level of drama. I am excited. WGBC!

• Captain Jack (13 ♡):

  I'm glad Moses and JK survived the purge. I hope they do great things next year.

• belilaugh (13 ♡):

  Another thing about the CP3 deal is that given the new rules that you can't aggregate salary in trades for a larger salaried player (starting next season), keeping CP3 on board gives them the option to go after a big salaried player next season in a way that trading Poole for multiple role players would not have. That is an option that might come in very handy if something goes awry with Klay next summer and they do not re-sign him. This was the last season where a trade like this would have been legal (Poole plus other salary for a larger salaried player).

• fotd (13 ♡):

  Apricot - the FO has their eye on you. [uh oh - EA]

• hammystyle (12 ♡):

  If you want to be a great shooter it's nice to have Dell Curry as your dad.

  If you want to be a great defender it's nice to have Gary Payton as your dad.

  If your team needs you to set some nasty screens to free up an all time great shooter....it's nice to have Dale Davis as your dad.

• UneasySquirrel (12 ♡):

  Guys like Andre, West, Zaza, even Bogut, were not guys who you would necessarily pinpoint as playing with joy before coming to the Warriors - or even during, on an individual level. But they contributed to the team playing with joy overall.

• DFiB (11 ♡):

  TJD told the radio folks that the Dubs were trying to trade for picks starting around #35, fwiw… also says the Dubs were one of the few teams willing to guarantee a contract when everybody else was only willing to give a two way

• Asher B. (11 ♡):

  Seriously doubt that cp3 *wont* come off the bench. He’s a perfect second team captain at this stage. He is also fragile and they will want to reduce his minutes.he should play when Steph doesn’t

• Mycroft (10 ♡):

  So, since no one else is going to ask, I have to, for those of us who haven't been to Chase, and because Chris Paul historically provides leadership at a different level: Is there a secret tunnel to the visitor's locker room?

• Asher B. (10 ♡):

  Maybe it'll be weird to see a guy pass it to our own team and not the other team, which is a good thing to do.

• Asher B. (10 ♡):

  I agree with most of that but not that he's a playing style misfit with the Warriors. Timpf got all hot about this issue, but it presumes that the Warriors can only use players who constantly move and hit catch and shoot threes. Poole learned to move in the system and I'm glad we traded him. Moreover, having more than one weapon is a good thing. Shaun LIvingstone used to be the proof of this. Come of the bench, no pace and space, no running around like you're Klay, no setting picks. Just handle like a traditional point guard and post some people up. If we can have the starters do the usual Kerr Ball and then have CP3 come in and run a more tradidional offense, that mixes things up for the opponent, they have to adjust. Because he doesn't just play pick n roll, he plays *elite* pick n roll. He also showed ability to adjust to a three-heavy offense in Houston, so we'll see how he's used. But I don't think he's a strange playing style fit.

• Sleepy Freud (10 ♡):

  I'm in this line. Sam on Light Years summed it up really well (paraphrasing): you'd hate this deal if CP3 were gonna "do his thing" walking the ball upcourt for 30-35 mpg. But as the "new Andre/Shaun", organizing the floor for 15-20 MPG, mostly while Steph sits, never turning it over, hitting open threes, and getting the most out of JK, Moses, GP2 et al.? You kinda love that.

• Janet (10 ♡):

  It’s been a wildly entertaining ride reading all the comments and EA’s popsicle-fueled analyses. So many lols 👏👏👏

• Nadav (10 ♡):

  I’m tempted to get a Chris Paul jersey in the same way I used to collect error/misprint baseball cards.

• Nellie (9 ♡):

  Oh, and I think it's been mentioned before, but TJD's dad played briefly for the Warriors. An unmemorable stint that I nonetheless remember pretty well. W's track record with second-generation NBA players hardly needs recounting. Steph, Klay, Wiggins, GPII... They could field a complete (and pretty good!) lineup now with Trayce in the mix.

• g8tgod (9 ♡):

  To me, it's more than tribalism, though that plays a role too. We remember him and the Lob City Clippers knocking the Ws out of the playoffs. We remember him kicking Steph off the practice court rather than sharing it so they could both practice. We remember all of those games where he hit guys in the nuts and did other unsavory things. As for his on-court demeanor, does he seem like a fit for the Warriors' vaunted culture of weaponized joy?

  So it's a bitter pill. I am not disparaging the guy's personal life; I hope he loves his family and all that business. But he's a strange culture and playing style fit on the Warriors. Doesn't he just seem better with LeBron and the Lakers?

  Anyway, he's all ours. Maybe I'll feel different when he's doing all of that dirty stuff and bitching at the refs and flopping for the Ws. But I suspect I'll feel more like I feel toward Draymond Green but without the appreciation for four championships. If he can spell Steph and unlock JK, if he competes and helps the Ws win, if he comports himself like a team guy, that'll make it easier to root for him.

• ServantOfLuna (9 ♡):

  Isn't CP3 the reason why guys like SGA and Booker became better players on offense? If he can open up other players' skills, perhaps he can do the same to Kuminga and Moody, too.

• Eric Apricot (9 ♡):

  Trader Joe’s Fruit Frenzy Bars got me through draft day…

• pooryorick (9 ♡):

  As a fan who loves rivalries and rooting against those rivals hard the whole blue/gold CP3 scenario comes down to one thing for me - it’s what Steph wants.

• JZAlvarado (8 ♡):

  Ayton for Chris Paul? Suns need a PG

• WGBC (8 ♡):

  Something to consider about CP3's injury history. Of his 1214 games played, he has started all 1214 of them, averaging 34.4mpg. Dub's 6th man usually only plays 20-25mpg and only starts 20-40% of games.

• AJ (8 ♡):

  You need to adjust your expectations [for draft picks] way down. 25-50% hit rate? 15 year average career? No team is anywhere close on that, especially on late round picks. Average NBA career is waaayy shorter. Teams routinely cut their 2nd round picks without them ever playing for them.

  It's always going to be the case that someone drafted after will do better - you can't just point to 1 dude who was drafted after and say, "well we could have had XYZ player".

  Guess how many 2nd round picks from the 2018 draft are with their original team? 1. Guess how many non-top 5 1st round picks are with their original team? 1.

  Guess how many 2nd rounders are still in the league from 2013? 1.

• VigilanteSteve (8 ♡):

  Besides the fact that it is the most hated Warrior opponent ever, I'm starting to come around on the CP3 trade. The most important aspect might be the financial flexibility that it brings us. He could be traded at the deadline for one of those coveted targets we are always mentioning. Either way, we aren't hamstrung by the second apron. And as a Steph fan, we have to love that Chris Paul has to accept a backup role to Steph. With CP3 running the second unit, those frustrating turnovers from Poole, and from Draymond, will be cease to happen. CP3 in a reduced role might be perfect, we don't need to rely on him for 30mpg. He has had the ability to unlock young wings these last few stops, so hopefully JK and Moody will take that jump that we might not have seen if Poole was still out there playing hero ball. Think about how many possessions last season ended with a Poole turnover or terrible shot.

• ForeverFoyled (7 ♡):

  It wouldn't shock me if he were traded, but are there some vets at a similar salary that could make a difference? That's a pretty low salary for a vet.

  The "low playing time/Kerr won't play him" I still don't really buy. As a super young rookie on a championship team, he played 9th most minutes, basically the same as GP2, who was a major contributor. He became the youngest player IN HISTORY to start in a playoff game (from the coach who "hates/discriminates against the youth"). This year, he played even more, moving up to 7th in minutes, and getting nearly double the minutes of a vet like JMG. Yes, something weird happened in the playoffs. I don't know why. But unless it's a complete "JK refuses to play for this team anymore" scenario, I feel like they may not give up on him yet unless it's for an impact player.

• Klon (7 ♡):

  Because I could not say my piece yet (technology acting up, smh) all I will say is that I absolutely love every bit of what happened on draft day. I feel we are - at least on paper - a much better squad now than before that day. MDJ starts his GM stint off with high grades in my book: officially ending the two-timelines nonsense, making our bench stronger even before free agency. What more could I want? Well, Draymond getting his well-deserved deal, but that'll come later.

Brandin Podziemski drafted at #19 by… — JUN 22

Steal Jackson-Davis at #57 (yahoo!), trade PBJ (boo)

• Asher B. (16 ♡):

  I completely forget Wiggins and Looney in the offseason. No trade rumors, no salary talk, no questions about how new or potential players will fit with them. They just hoop.

• JZAlvarado (13 ♡):

  Pay me, Apricot!

  • JZAlvarado

    5 hr ago

    So who do I see the Warriors picking up. People think they're blowing smoke but they have been pretty much telling us that they will pick experience over raw potential. However, I truly and fully believe that if Lively and/or Hawkins fall to the Warriors, they won't hesitate to snatch them up. I alson don't believe such would be the case for Nick Smith (which Im actually higher on than the aforemetioned two but didn't think he would drop this far early on when I was going school girl crazy for Lively)

    Short of those two, my prediction here is the Warriors going with Jamie Jaquez if available. I just think that JJ won't be available (which will push one of the aforementioned 3 players into our slot space). If between Nick Smith Jr and Podziemski (assuming Lively, Hawkins, and Jaquez are all gone), The Warriors will select Podziemski

• Chasing Rings... (12 ♡):

  Just logged in... What-in-the-actual-fu¢₭ity-fu¢₭ just happened?! Did the FO not get the DNHQ memo that we NEVER want Chris Paul to win a Championship??!! FUUUUUUUUUU¢₭!!! And therapy was going so well...

• belilaugh (12 ♡):

  They took the swing. I'm cool with it. Stats-wise Podziemski is a lottery pick no question, if he can figure out a way to survive defensively in the NBA then he can be really good because he's really good at basketball.

  Sits a year behind Curry/CP3, steps in after the Warriors trade CP3 for rotation pieces.

• Marc Pinckney (12 ♡):

  Huge upside. Plays bigger than his listed size. Fast. Leaper. He can definitely play the 2 and the 3. Big time rebounder. Plays hard all the time. Santa Clara plays U San Diego in conference. I have seen him play a couple of times. Once live. Once on TV. Nasty boy!! Will have to improve man to man and on ball defense. But he wants to be good. Elite shooter and jumper. Moves without the ball. Excellent feel for screening. Coming off screens. Warriors appear to be going SMALLBALL. Interesting pick. W's are loading up on shooters.

• Duby Dub Dubs (11 ♡):

  Duby euro travel update.

  After 12 hour flight, we sat on the tarmac for another 2 hours before finding our flight canceled. Shacked up in Munich (with love) last night, and then w0ke up to another canceled flight.

  Now we are on our way to the Munich central station, where we ride the trains into Bologna, then transfer for our final leg into Roma. Another 10 or so hours of travel, but we should get into Rome this evening.

  Also, fuck CP3. I hope we re-trade him

• mDuo13 (10 ♡):

  I feel you. But Steph is still on the team, Klay is still here. GP2 has returned, and we still have Loondawg and Kerr. I won't know if it's a fun team to watch until they play. But a lot of the ingredients are the same as the ones that were fun!

• bobbita (10 ♡):

  Damn Poole gets smacked in the face, the organization shoves it under the rug, and he doesn’t mention it all year and he’s immature?

• Alas Disembodied Spirit (10 ♡):

  He sharing a glass of wine with his wife and she is saying, "I'm so g;lad you left that job."

  And Bob is thanking the Universe.

• mDuo13 (7 ♡):

  So for some reason I started wondering about "championship pedigree" and how many guys there are in the league who actually have won championships, and I wondered, should 3x champion Pat McCaw get more credit than 1x champion (and 5x conference champ) Kevin Love? Were those guys just along for the ride?

  We all know Steph and LeBron are the two greatest players of the last 10 years. So I began to think, what if we set aside all the championships those guys won and looked at who *else* has championship rings in that time? (For simplicity, I'm only counting guys with any playoff stats on the winning team, not guys who were traded mid-season and awarded a ceremonial ring or something.)

  The "last 10 years" is the period 2014-2023. If you remove all of them won by Curry and LeBron, the remaining championships are:

  2014 Spurs: 14 players, led by Tim Duncan & Kawhi Leonard. 4 guys are still active in the NBA.

  2019 Raptors: 14 players, led by Kawhi. 8 of them are still active, including Kawhi & Danny Green who were both counted already on the Spurs' championship team.

  2021 Bucks. 17 players, led by Giannis Antetokuonmpo (all new faces to this list). 15 of them still active.

  2023 Nuggets. 15 players, led by Nikola Jokic (also all new faces). Presumably all still active.

  That's 40 different active players who have non-Steph, non-LeBron NBA championships. (~7% of all players who played in the NBA in 2023) And in fact, you have to go back to the 2011 Mavericks to find another non-LeBron championship, and all of the players from that team are retired now, so presumably this holds if you limit it to "active players" with no further time frame.

  Weirdly, Kawhi has never won an MVP award despite all his other accolades including 2x Finals MVP. And 2015 Steph Curry won his first MVP and championship in the same year. But in all other cases, the top player on the winning team had already won an MVP award in a previous season before becoming a champ. That rule also holds for LeBron, and even KD if you count him as the Dubs' top player in some years (I don't).

  What's my point in all this? I'd say it actually surprised me a little in how much it backs the "team with the best player is most likely to win" thing. And despite MVP awards sometimes being questionable, they are pretty predictive of who's likely to win a championship, often soon after the award.

  Based purely on this, I'd say it's fair to put 2024 championship contenders as:

  Tier 1: Denver, Milwaukee, Philly

  Tier 2: Golden State and both LA teams (assuming Bron doesn't retire)

  (You might say, "What about Boston and Miami? Shouldn't the runner-up be considered a contender the following year, too?" And I say, that sounds very valid, but that's research I'm not about to do at this hour.)

Report: Jordan Poole and Ryan Rollins traded… — JUN 22

YOU WANTED WIN NOW? HERE IT COMES

• AJ (27 ♡):

  Well. Either.

  A) Warriors win a title

  B) CP3 remains ringless

  I guess that's a win-win?

• Eric Apricot (22 ♡):

  This is a damned inconsiderate trade. Don't they know how long it will take to scrub everything I've ever written about CP3

• vignette17 (18 ♡):

  I really, really believed in Jordan Poole. Before this year, he was my one untouchable youngster. But his 3P shot reverted this year and I don't think he's ever going to be the 40% monster he was in the playoffs last year or that one month stretch. The sample size of 33% just keeps growing.

  And I think he was the biggest reason for the lack of joy from the bench this season. Completely understandably. What Dray did was ridiculous. And unforgivable. But we saw with the Lakers: one person can bring down the vibes of a whole team. And as soon as they're gone, a non-playoff team can make the WCF. The Dubs had to split up Dray and Poole this offseason. And it sucks so bad, but I think it had to be Poole.

  So what does CP3 add to a team? He can drag some shitty lineups into positives with few turnovers and controlled pace. What did the Warriors have last year? The best starting lineup in basketball. If CP3 buys into a bench role to stay healthy and doesn't fall off a cliff? He can raise the floor of our bench to something we haven't seen consistently since Durant: positive non-Steph minutes.

  He also could allow us to pursue some PnR specialists to eat innings in the regular season. Montrezl Harrell for example could be an interesting pickup now to win some games in January, February, and March that I never would have considered otherwise. He can run the Dubs when Steph gets hurt. And if you hope Kuminga grows as a player? CP3 will probably get him up to speed in a second unit faster than JK could hope otherwise. In fact, JK may be the biggest winner with this trade.

  Now do I hate CP3's grifting? Absolutely. Will he get hurt? Absolutely. Does he simply allow more flexibility with his expiring contract and non-guaranteed options and playstyle? Absolutely.

• TheseGuysAreF’ingGIANTS! (15 ♡):

  The more i think about this trade the more of a plus it seems:

  1) The Warriors lacked a voice that would hold the big 3 accountable for lazy turnovers. CP3 will not be at all afraid to go at them.

  2) Poole getting paid showed the Warriors didn’t care about D. Poole getting shipped out shows they do.

  3) CP3 has created All-Stars and MVP candidates out of the young guys he’s played with. SGA & Booker are the latest. Harden, Capela, Blake, and DeAndre all had success with CP also.

  4) Dunleavy showed he’s willing to move guys he was responsible for getting without hemming and hawing and waiting too long.

• Klaymation (15 ♡):

  I'm loving it.

  RPM says CP3 still has gas in the tank and this guy is a great competitor who will do whatever it takes to win, legally or not.

  Poole "got his bag" and now he can pack it.

  We weren't going to build a future contender around a guy with his defensive shortcomings anyway.

  Strong move.

  Now we just need Kuminga to become our Kawhi.

• hammystyle (15 ♡):

  I'm not too conflicted about this, I love it. Maybe there was another deal out there I'd prefer but that's all theoretical. I think this really sets a direction where I expect Kuminga and Moody on the team, and I'm very excited about that.

  It fixes what I believe was the biggest problem last year. The team was out of balance. There was a veteran team, and a young team. And for the young guys to function they generally needed to be surrounded by the veterans. So you can play Kuminga with Dray and Steph or Poole with Dray and Klay or whatever combo, but that limits your lineups a lot. Especially since Poole, Kuminga and Moody all are coming off the bench.

  Now Kuminga and Moody are going to be playing with one of the best decision makers in league history. It's a perfect spot for both guys to make huge 3rd year leaps.

• WarriorsGoldenGirl (15 ♡):

  Damn, I love the smell of Woj bombs in the morning. Even when it’s possibly taking out our team.

  Pros:

  - CP3 will be playing his ass off to finally get a ring. I think he comes off the bench, genuflects to Steph, whatever it takes to get a chip.

  - This will help Kuminga and the young ones.

  - Like Sleepy said, CP does have lovely eyes

  Cons:

  - Chris Paul in a Warriors uniform only playing half the season.

  - Chris Paul in a Warriors uniform

  - Chris Paul

• Goofus (12 ♡):

  I wish I’d taken a picture of my wife’s expression when I told her the Warriors are trading for Chris Paul. It looked like some held a turd under her nose.

• belilaugh (12 ♡):

  The fact that they didn't have to dump Kuminga to get rid of him is great.

• Captain Jack (11 ♡):

https://twitter.com/957thegame/status/1671975095366201344

• For those who are still confused. This move was the FO basically telling the world they're fully invested into the trio of Steph/Klay/Dray until they ride off into the sunset...

• rcknfn (11 ♡):

  Ever since Sun-Was trade news, I have been thinking that CP3 (on post-WIZ-mutual-waive/buyout minimum) would be great to run second unit, Poole or otherwise. Dray can move back to playing more minutes with Steph. But every time I thought of this, I threw up a little.

  Aside from:

  - Rooting for CP3 and watching him give an oscar win worthy foul drawing acting. But at the very least, I won't be yelling at TV 10 times a game - "What are you doing, Poole. Slow down, buddy. Arrghh".

  - Can he still stay healthy through playoffs? If we can keep OPJ healthy that way, I think we can do so for CP3. Celiberni about to ask for a big raise.

  I see all positive:

  - Better facilitator than Poole. He will be way much better at running second unit. Now the second unit doesn't have to be motion offense heavy.

  - Better defender than Poole by far (but on limited minutes).

  - Much-much better mid-range game in 3 guard lineup. Except for Steph, we haven't had that since KD left. That opens up perimeter shooting especially given Steph's gravity

  - Veteran presence. JK is gonna love it.

  - About even in salary this year (I think): CP3 = JP+RR. BUT big thing being that it gives them flexibility next season. Keeping Klay just got a bit easier OR dump him to if you want to have Cap Space.

  - No more carry over of JP3-Dray bad blood.

  Now I am going to go and throw up some more.

• Hookshot Holly (11 ♡):

  CP3 lobs to Kuminga and Moody are intriguing prospect.

• EyeBlack22 (11 ♡):

  Separate from my rational hatred (yes, I meant rational) of CP3 and all his antics, I think the big winner here is JK. I see their games working really well together. Furthermore, I think JK could benefit from having a mean old cuss lighting a fire under his ass each day at practice. CP3 fits that bill then some.

• Truckeeman (10 ♡):

  2 cents on "the Front Office blew it (with all the youngsters, etc.)".

  No.

  The FO tried something. It didn't (hasn't yet) worked. They're trying something else. That shows flexible thinking and adaptation. No one has a crystal ball. Few win all the time - other teams are trying too. The Warriors were light-years. The rest of the league used an Alcubierre drive and caught up.

• Asher B. (10 ♡):

  This is such hindsight is 2020 bullshit and reductionism to me. Poole at the time seemed worth paying, the Draymond punishment seemed real, and if they’d won a chip it would have seemed genius

• crusty quips (10 ♡):

  Well, I don't care for it. Not that I think we gave up too much, seems like a fair package for a veteran impact player. I don't care for it because this puts me in the uncomfortable position of having to root for cp3 to win a championship if I want the Dubs to win one too. It feels gross.

2023 Warriors NBA Draft Viewing Guide and… — JUN 22

Find the exact moment you will be mad about GSW's draft selection

• Eric Apricot (17 ♡):

  By the way, my main wish for the GSW draft pick is that there is free video of an entire game that the draftee has played, so I can make analysis videos.

  Also, let’s not go too crazy with pessimism right away. The scouting reports had significant problems for the last two years which ended up changing my mind.

  First, the Kuminga scouting reports all said he was a lazy bad defender. When I ended up watching a whole Ignite game, it was clear that he was going to be a plus defender and that “laziness” was really a lot like bad rotations by a slapped together team. I was very early on that train https://dubnationhq.com/p/explain-one-play-jonathan-kuminga

  Second, the PBJ scouting reports usually omitted the crucial information about his major foot injury that derailed two seasons, his mother getting cancer, and his joining his father’s team to try to save his job.

  So, whatever happens, I am expecting to see more nuance when we can dig into some extended game footage.

• BadlyBrowned (12 ♡):

  Having done no research prior, I am ready to convince myself that anything that happens today was a good idea.

• GreenDray (10 ♡):

  Since no draft pick will likely make an immediate impact, I'm for playing the long game:

  - Trade up for Coulibaly

  - When the Spurs come to town, have Bilal take Wemby out to one of San Francisco's excellent pâtisseries

  - In 7 years, when Wemby hits UFA, sign him away from the dusty smoldering hellhole of southern Texas to have the french duo win another few rings in the Bay

  https://www.wunderground.com/forecast/us/tx/san-antonio

• belilaugh (8 ♡):

  One angle fans aren't considering, CP3's contract next season is entirely non-guaranteed. That means a) if it's a disaster then they could trade him at the deadline as he's essentially an expiring (not a good outcome obviously) b) if it's a major success they could negotiate a deal with him, not exercise the option and then sign him at a much reduced rate, or the most important one c) they can keep the salary slot alive by exercising the team option and then trading his HUGE expiring salary for depth pieces for next season.

  Given that I think CP3 is an upgrade over Poole for this season, I think this sets the Warriors up better to win in the next few years despite the fact that I do have belief that Poole could be very good. Although to be real, I don't think it was going to happen on the Warriors, he needs to go to a team where he can be the lead guard and now he's on that team. Good luck to the kid, and thank you for your vital contributions to a championship, you're good in my book for that.

• Mr.Plow (8 ♡):

  We just traded a young, kind of floppy/whiney player for THE WORST WHINING, GRIFTING SCUMBAG IN HISTORY AT AGE 85

• Eric Apricot (8 ♡):

  OH

  MY

  GOD

• Ronaldinho (8 ♡):

  I already don't like the Mike Dunleavy era.

• belilaugh (8 ♡):

  Posterity Disclaimer: I think all of the picks at #19 have clear flaws/issues so to me it's about making a good bet, but this certainly isn't like 2021 with the #7 pick in a strong draft where I had strong opinions. Unless Lively falls to #19, since I feel strongly about him being good on the Warriors.

  Prediction: I think they keep the pick and select Hawkins.

  Preference 1: Trade the pick of course, although I don't know if trading up makes much sense so I'm hoping for down/out. Maybe Taylor Hendricks could be an immediate contributor with his 3 and D skillset and that's worth trading up for? I dunno.

  Preference 2: Assuming no trade and no unlikely fallers, I'd take Jaquez (I'm a UCLA guy, sorry). TJD would be my #2. I'd be okay with a swing on Miller, Podziemski (I do not think he's "NBA ready" and feel like he's getting that tag because his game is polished, but I like the upside), Whitehead, or Howard. I'd be okay with Murray although I realized the other day his career FT% is sub-70 which is always concerning to me but I'll just assume his shot comes around like his brother's lol.

  I'd be skeptical but open minded if they took Hawkins, Sheppard, or Colby Jones. If Sensabaugh's medicals check out I'd put him in this category, and it'd be more a skepticism of fit with the Warriors than his talent because he seems like an elite shooting prospect.

  I'd be skeptical and close minded if they took JHS, Nick Smith, Maxwell Lewis, GG Jackson, Julian Strawther. But I'm a Warrior fan so I'd talk myself into them I'm sure.

  In a trade down to the second round scenario, I'd be cool with Andre Jackson, James Nnaji (if he's stashed), maybe Jordan Walsh or Rayan Rupert as they seem like pretty similar swings.

  I have no real opinion on Maxence-Prosper, Kobe Brown, Marcus Sasser, Keyontae Johnson, Julian Phillips, Jalen Wilson, didn't watch any of them or a few either guys, I'll check them out if the Warriors draft them.

• Run_TMC (7 ♡):

  Reading a lot of the internet blather and listening to radio talk show hosts also ramble on I had a thought. We all basically agree that the whomever they pick will not likely make a huge difference next season. Their best chance for a win now improvement is to sign a ring chasing vet that can provide 10-20 minutes a night of contributing-to-winning basketball or make a trade that makes them deeper (the Poole for Olynyck and Sexton type trade I've seen floated around would be an example). If the #19 can contribute to a move/trade that makes us enough better to get us into real championship contention I think we ll agree that's what we should do rather than make the pick. i think we all agree on that so much that it's almost not even worth mentioning here on draft night. So all that preamble is to say that when most of us talk about who we should pick tonight it is always with the unspoken caveat that of course we should make a better move if available.

  Ok, for the two of you still awake, I think the Warriors may be about to make a mistake in their drafting philosophy for this season. No matter who we pick at #19 they are not going to make much of a difference next season. So no point in a high floor guy. NOW is the time to swing for the fences on a guy like Miller/Rupert/Nnaji. If we are going to be successful next season it will not be through the draft. As long as we keep this core our only path is vet mins + the guys we have + long term draftees developing. Nest year we will rely on Improvement from JK, Moody, PBJ, Rollins + some vet min signing. The year after we can hope that the guy we drafted this year will be good enough for some spot minutes (like what we hope for PBJ this year) and keep rolling that way until Steph is done.

  tldr; take best available, same as always, even if they ARE a teenager.

• DubsNerd (6 ♡):

  From what I've heard, he is really smart, and has been in the NBA since birth. So, I'm happy to give him a chance, especially since the main other option was the owner's kid.

• jeckyllhouse (6 ♡):

  reached a point of peace on the Warriors offseason yesterday

  as long as Anthony Lamb isn’t on the team next year, I will be content

• KlayisSab'sRideorDie (6 ♡):

  Happy Draft Day y'all.

• belilaugh (5 ♡):

  I am good with this move. Please do not find any of my past comments on how CP3 is my least favorite player in the NBA lol.

• Goofus (5 ♡):

  >>>7:00 - 8:00. Be angry. You could have drafted better.

  Furiously google about the new guy, or pray for a trade.

  Is this followed by the step where we focus on positive draft analysis of the new guy to reconcile our feelings and furiously convince ourselves that this was a great pick? (AKA “Jacob Evans is NBA ready!” mode.)

  • belilaugh (7 ♡):

    First Summer League game: "Whoa, [something he did in the game that showed up on his pre-draft film] never showed up on his pre-draft film, this is exciting!"

  • Goofus (7 ♡):

    /picks up loose ball

    “See that steal? He’s a great defender!”

  • Eric Apricot (5 ♡):

    Hell yeah. I, being an intellectual, bypass the piddly irrational whining part and go straight to the irrational optimism part.

    Even though every one of the last three picks was my last choice, I was able to root for them wholeheartedly within one day.

    Though I admit the Jacob Evans thing is an exception. We all noticed a post-college hitch in his jumper on video right away and I never achieved ignition on Hype The New Guy.

Revisiting the 2022 Draft, our hits and… — JUN 21

Let's see how our commenters and I did last year

• Night Night (12 ♡):

  This trade has all the makings of a villain origin story for Marcus Smart.

  Synopsis: A hustle and grind player that (despite the flopping), tried to play hard, play right, play by the rules…and was rejected. Smart was the heart and soul of the team, the voice that held the Celtics accountable for years. Despite his loyalty and hard work, Smart was traded to a team known for it’s arrogant recklessness, its toxic confidence and tendencies toward violence.

  Marcus Smart (soon with a cold streak of blue hair), is about to become a villain. Cast aside, and forced to remake himself in the shadow of the Grizzlies. No longer the voice of reason and accountability, but the villainous arc of vengeance.

• Chasing Rings... (12 ♡):

  Andrew Bigguns

• hammystyle (10 ♡):

  Mainly for my own posterity. Here's my 2023 draft board for the Warriors. Really focusing on fit for the team as presently constituted with an eye on future upside.

  Bufkin - In the off chance he falls. Great guard prospect. On offense I love the mix of his first step burst, plus the herky jerky game that really

  Leonard Miller - Great versatile PF prospect. The defensive versatility, rebounding, ball handling are enough to be a very playoff winning 4 even if he’s never a great shooter. Could be a better version of Aaron Gordon.

  Jaime Jacquez - Has a very high floor as a hustling role player forward who can screen, pass, defend and would figure out the Warrior system very quickly. I’m intrigued if he can become a solid 3P shooter and be able to leverage that into attacking closeouts with his high level footwork. Either getting easy post touches or drawing fouls.

  Trayce Jackson Davis - Has a lot of what has made Xavier Tillman a solid playoff rotation big man immediately. Perimeter switchability with some rim protection, rebounding and good passing/screening instincts on O. He’s a much bouncier athlete and a scoring threat. The ability to do the dribble hand off game while being a real threat to dribble and dunk. Could see his best case scenario as like 85-90% of Bam Adebayo.

  Derek Lively - I like the mix of the defensive upside with a bit of passing ability. I think that lack of scoring instinct really caps the upside. Good, not great prospect IMO.

  Dariq Whitehead - I really like that shooting stroke. If the injuries looked OK long term I’d have him higher than Lively for sure, and could see the case to taking a long term shot.

  Olivier Maxence Prosper - Great size for a wing. 6’8 220 and 7’ wingspan. Good feet for defense. Good athlete and good feel for cutting, transition and finishing. Not a bad shooter. Could be an elite defense guy who can hit some shots.

  Jordan Hawkins - Likely to be a very solid 3P shooter. But he could be the rare movement shooter who also could be a very solid defender. Those are typically excellent starters.

  Colby Jones - This type of guard can play a long time. Really good D. Solid passer and decision maker. Can hit some shots. Just no burst. Think he’s an average starter at best, and more likely a solid backup.

  Brandon Podziemski - The shot is good. The rebounding and steal rate means he plays hard and seemingly has some sneaky athleticism. Could he be a Luke Kennard who at least contributes something on D? Maybe. But I’m also pretty down on him. He’s really small. His standing reach is a little smaller than Stephs. Got blown by a lot on D AND didn’t really take anyone off the dribble. He just seems like a weird combo to me.

  Kris Murray - He is likely to be a decent rotation forward, and could help soon, but I’m not sure there’s much there beyond that. Don’t see him being a high level defender or shooter.

  Other young guys I like, but don’t think we’ll take:

  Nnaji - Huge frame. Great athlete and motor. Will be a basic offensive player, but he could have more versatility on D then your Clint Capela types.

  Cissoko - Great size for a wing with some passing ability

  Rupert - Great wingspan. Plays really hard on D.

  Kukevski - Wouldn’t be shocked if we took him. Great stroke for a stretch big. Like a Kelly Olynyk probably never a starter, but likely a long time valuable rotation guy. He has true C height and length 6’11/7’2.5” which is usually not the case for this type of stretch big.

• Eric Apricot (10 ♡):

  **

  Brandon Payne on Scoot Hendersons workout with Steph Curry:

  "Mr. Curry hadn't touched a basketball in about 4 weeks & he decided to rattle off 60 in a row in 1 drill & Scoots eyes got about this big... I had to keep telling him don't worry this isn't normal, this is not normal"

https://twitter.com/stephmuse_/status/1671573866865467402?s=61&t=P_FoYb59qpl6sz-fj5Z51g

• belilaugh (10 ♡):

  It's been super telegraphed that he's re-signing for awhile, I don't know why people are pretending otherwise.

  It baffles me that any long time Warrior fan would think Draymond would leave based on all we know about him and the organization, but then all the Klay mockery/disrespect baffles me as well, so I assume there are just a lot of newer fans out there.

• kinbote (8 ♡):

  Smart for Wiseman is a pretty balanced trade, at least by last name synergy.

• Eric Apricot (8 ♡):

  On the good side, I got to mute everyone quoting this trade and whining on Twitter that the Warriors management was sitting on their asses

• Aaannnd1 (8 ♡):

  OT….The Sacramento Kings' G League affiliate announced Tuesday that it has hired Lindsey Harding as head coach and Anjali Ranadivé as general manager. They are the first team in NBA G League history to be led by two women.

  From Bleacher Report today

• Sleepy Freud (8 ♡):

  I mean, I’d assume JK and Moses are well ahead of any “new rookies” when it comes to earning the trust of the coaching staff. Jon has ~2800 NBA minutes under his belt (reg season + playoffs); Moses has ~1800; and both have been very impressively efficient and productive for 19-20 year-olds (indeed, the #1 and #2 most efficient scorers among all the 2021 lottery picks).

  But as long as we’re worrying about Kerr’s readiness: are we ready in our development as fans to allow that when it comes to developing and trusting young players, we probably don’t know better than the Warriors’ coaching staff?

• DFiB (8 ♡):

  No one is going to stop me from demanding the coaches play the youngsters. Nobody is going to stop me from doing that. Even though sometimes coaches in my fanhood career would try to stop me from demanding that because they had to win right now. So it was really an everyday fight to stay true to myself, and, yeah, this is something that I'm never going to lose, for sure.

• Mycroft (7 ♡):

  Historically, rumors floating about GS trades prior to the draft seem to be pretty consistently wrong - almost as if the FO floats them on purpose. I agree that trading JK would be a huge mistake, both in terms of future return and of current salary cap management. I believe as well that he has clear all-star potential. This may seem odd coming from someone who has generally been on the JK got enough playing time side of the argument, but I strongly believe in his future - I just disagree with some on whether GS has employed the correct development methodology.

Nothing drastic, just shooting, versatility… — JUN 20

Not looking good for people who want a dramatic move

• Eric Apricot (15 ♡):

  For the people who like statistical models of draft prospect performance, this tweet is a thread of a whole bunch of such models. They are pretty different in output.

https://twitter.com/thegrantedwards/status/1668817570743418881?s=61&t=P_FoYb59qpl6sz-fj5Z51g

• Whomever the Warriors draft, I intend to comb through the models to find the ones that rate our pick the highest and go with that one. :D

• Sleepy Freud (14 ♡):

  Even Harry Potter would have opted out.

• Arash (11 ♡):

  After a careful examination, I'm a big fan of Trayce Jackson-Davis (TJD) because of his tremendous statistical footprint + excellent fit within our system.

  TJD was immensely impactful and extremely versatile this year, a rare combination. TJD averaged an impressive 21 ppg on a 61 TS% along with 11 rbg and 4 apg, but his basic box level stats don't tell the full story.

  TJD ranked 4th in TRB%, 7th in BLK%, 11th in AST% and 47th in TOV% (demonstrating excellent decision-making skills) all while being 11th among ALL prospects in USG% and dropping 21 ppg on a true shooting efficiency that ranked 12 among all prospects with a min 20 USG%. Basically, TJD was good at practically everything while having to shoulder a heavy offensive load.

  TJD's main weaknesses are his lack of shooting, his lack of size, and lack of elite footspeed. However, I'm not particularly concerned about his lack of size since he has a solid wingspan AND he's consistently demonstrated to be extremely strong for his size throughout college. Regading his lack of elite footspeed, I'm once again not particularly concerned since his defensive processing and footwork are elite and he demonstrated in college that when attacked on the perimeter he more than held his own. Not to mention, as a C, his ability in help defense is FAR more important and he excels there.

  TJD's weakness in shooting can't be excused, but I'd rather a prospect who is good at everything but shooting because that is a prospect who will be a very effective role player for a long time which is what you want at 19.

• tempprofile (11 ♡):

  sfgate has a long piece about the "irony" of Dunleavy Jr taking over the GM spot but I honestly don't have a lot of angst about MDJ. Granted the Warriors would have liked to have gotten more out of the #3 pick than a guy with a solid if unspectacular NBA career, but that's just the luck of the draw. I guess the real irony will be if James Wiseman succeeds MDJ as GM 20 years from now.

• Eric Apricot (10 ♡):

  I would finally get a rest after the Finals ? :D

• Aaannnd1 (10 ♡):

  It is not that we have to listen to him say dick, is that we have to listen to him at all.

• DubsNerd (9 ♡):

  Regarding Kerr playing/not playing the young dudes, my take is this less about "Kerr hates teenagers" and more about the team started off slow and he was trying to dig his way out of the hole. In retrospect, you can say maybe he should have thrown away last season, focused on development, and they'd be better off this year, but if JK and MM are looking good in September, I would not be surprised if they get a lot of minutes without anyone needing to force Kerr to play them. If they still have some big weaknesses, then yeah, he probably won't give them a lot of run. But I do recall Patrick friggin McCaw getting some real minutes in a playoff run not that long ago, so clearly Kerr will play kids if he thinks they can bring something.

  The one criticism that I do agree with is Kerr's tendency to have a very short hook for any mistake by the kids, but letting the more seasoned players make even worse versions of the same mistake and still get their minutes. I can well imagine JK or MM, sitting on the bench going, wait, how come [Player X] can get away with those mistakes and I can't.

  I am with you in thinking let's see what this group has if they have a bit better injury luck, no pre-season international travel, better chemistry being a year removed from the punch, Klay not spending until January to get in game shape, and a bunch of talented young guys that are a year older.

  Hopefully this coming year there is a crossover point where unless they are stiffs, and I don't think any of the young guys are, the recent draft class are largely better than the cheap vets they have been able to plug in and we don't have to worry about finding the next OPJ looking for a career reboot because we have strong contributions from the 21 year olds.

• Eric Apricot (9 ♡):

  Haha, I’m not really mad. I don’t mind silliness. Honestly I personally much prefer it to people having intense stress and spiraling unhappiness about the Warriors.

• Ando (8 ♡):

  You're going to be busy running a "Best Warriors Championship Teams" Poll. Comparing 2024 Warriors Championship to other W's champs.

• Sleepy Freud (8 ♡):

  Yep, #3 in the putative "two player draft" of 2002. After a slowish start with GS, he ended up having a better career than most of the guys in the Top 10, including a miles better career than the #2 guy, injured bust turned bad TV commentator Jay Williams.

  MDJ actually had a really good career from about age 27-34 (basically from the moment he got out of GS, lol). The only guys in the Top 20 you can say definitively had better careers were Yao (#1) and Amar'e (#9).

• Arash (7 ♡):

  God, I desperately want a trade for Porzingis, even if it means getting rid of Poole (who I actually like as a player).

  Grabbing Porzingis will instantly open up our roster minimizing the shooting deficiencies of Dray/Kuminga while also giving us some much needed interior presence in an NBA dominated by giants (Jokic/Giannis/Embiid/Davis). With Beal/Kuzma likely gone, Porzingis seems like a legitimate potential snag.

One bonus comment that represents how many were feeling after the Dunleavy intro on Jun 19 before all hell broke loose

• Basketbum (1 ♡):

  By all accounts, we can expect little to no changes to the roster. This is what I came away with from the Lacob/DunDun chat. They like our team the way it is. LMFAO. Really? They liked our road record, the disconnection between core and punching bag, the frustration of Kuminga not getting playing time? I guess they've made their bed and must lie in it. When you are thwarted by the financial penalties that the Warriors face, what else can you do but love the one you're with, says Crosby, Stills, & Nash. So, we'll add a draft pick and pick up a few vet mins. Isn't that what we've always done?