Dub Nation HQ 2021 Draft Viewing Guide
Dub Nation HQ 2021 Draft Viewing Guide
Your minute by minute angst schedule
FINALLY, the Draft is here! I’m pretty ready to know what’s going to happen, whether it be a trade for a star, trade for more or fewer picks or just plain getting two new Warriors. I’m in a state where I don’t think I’ll be disappointed in any players they draft, as they all will have pretty interesting developmental paths.
If you have time to kill
Instead of having a nervous breakdown, consider listening to this fantastic podcast. It’s a behind-the-scenes look at the draft room from someone who was with the Suns during the Devin Booker draft…
Among the revelations:
there’s a special private chat with every team where the draft runs about 10 picks ahead of the broadcast, so there is time to pull off trades that depend on players being available; no Woj is not in the chat, it’s ahead of even Woj.
the value and non-value of workouts
so by draft week, you’ve done your evaluations of prospects and have a Big Board. Your main work is evaluating trade offers, especially scouting current NBA players and projecting team success to properly value future draft picks
on draft night, how half the league sends last minute trade offers for your pick
how he got Booker wrong (undervaluing him by overvaluing on-ball defense)
how to put together a summer league around your draft pick
and more
How to view the draft
Date: July 29, 2021
Time: 5 p.m. Pacific
On: ABC and ESPN
However, it’s honestly a bit old-fashioned to (only) watch this on TV. If you want to be 5-10 minutes ahead of the televised draft, follow Woj, Shams and maybe Marc Stein on Twitter. Two years ago, ESPN appeared to tell Woj to stop spoiling the draft because his scoops undercut the whole TV show. So Woj stopped, but then Marc Stein just started spoiling the draft, so Woj went back to spoiling, while fulfilling his contractual obligation by tweeting amusing euphemisms like “Team X is lasering in on Player Y”.
So, if you don’t want spoilers, turn off Twitter, and this comment section. Because everyone is encouraged to post news here as soon as you have it from a reputable source.
As for when the actual picks start, I believe it’s about 5:15pm. Last year, Woj tweeted the #1 pick at 5:10pm:
Each team has 5 minutes to choose for the 30 first round picks, and 2 minutes for the 30 second round picks. The time of the official pick announcement sometimes seems to be longer than that.
What are the odds of a last-minute draft pick trade?
Note: The following schedule may change completely if the Warriors pull off a trade of a draft picks.
They happen every year, and GSW has been public about wanting to trade their picks. However, I would think that unless GSW got a no-brainer offer, they would have trades prearranged, contingent on certain players falling to #7. For instance, a team might only want #7 if they knew for sure they could get Kuminga or Barnes. This would mean the trade would be finalized right after the #6 pick is announced.
5:10-5:40. Picks 1 through 6.
Conventional wisdom is that the first six picks in the draft will be these players, in approximately this order:
Cade Cunningham
Evan Mobley
Jalen Green
Jalen Suggs
Scottie Barnes
Jonathan Kuminga
Naturally, for every NOT Top 6 name (such as James Bouknight) chosen before the Warriors pick, then one of these Top 6 players is falling to the Warriors. It’s most likely to be only one player falling — two would be a shocker — and it’s most likely to be the highly polarizing candidate Kuminga, whom we discussed in detail in our Draft Tournament.
5:40pm. The Warriors pick at #7.
The Draft is not guaranteed to follow any particular schedule, but in 2020, Woj tweeted the #7 pick at 5:40pm.
IF Kuminga or Barnes fall to the Warriors, I am betting GSW will take them.
IF they don’t, it’s fair to say that no one has any idea what the Warriors will do.
Given our Tourney analysis, it’s likely a lot of Dub Nation will feel like GSW had a disappointing pick for #7 and will say “that would have been a good pick at #14”.
It is very likely the pick will be one of the 18 players we examined in our Draft Tourney, but you never know.
5:45-6:20. Picks 8 through 13
So we’ll have about half an hour to process our emotions about the #7 pick. In the meantime, we’ll see six of our favorite choices for a steal at #14 go off the board.
I suggest you make a list of 14 players you wouldn’t mind GSW drafting at #14, and then check them off one by one as they are selected. Mathematically speaking, at least one will be remaining by the time the Warriors pick at #14.
Judging from the comments during our 2021 Dub Nation HQ Draft Tournament, the average list for our site readers is something like the Top 6 plus
Moses Moody
Alperen Sengun
Franz Wagner
James Bouknight
Chris Duarte
Corey Kispert
Josh Giddey
Jalen Johnson
That’s 14 already. And for me personally, there are a few more players I wouldn’t mind as a #14 pick.
6:20. Warriors pick at #14
In 2020, Woj tweeted the #14 pick at 6:24pm.
Again, it is likely that the Warriors will pick a player in our Draft Tourney that I listed above.
8:00. Second round begins
In 2020, Shams tweeted the 1st pick of the second round at 7:58pm. The Warriors habitually buy second round picks for cash. Last year, they drafted and stashed the then-unknown Justinian Jessup. Surely GSW is looking for a similar opportunity this year.
9:10. The draft ends, time to think about free agency
In 2020, Shams tweeted the #60 pick at 9:10pm. We can all yell about how great or horrible the picks were.
And then… we can start examining free agency rumors, because the Free Agency Moratorium starts in just four days on Aug 2.
Open Thread
Unless shocking news happens, this will be the place for all your Draft commentary.
Getting Moody really improved my mood from hearing the Kuminga pick. One nice thing is both guys are pretty good rebounders for their size. Both get to the line a bit. Both are teenagers. It would have been really nice to get Wagner/Moody, but today is about positivity. Now go get Batum, Kevin Love, Baze and that's a solid offseason.
How can the Lakers afford Westbrook?