I LOVE Draymond, I wear his jersey, I certainly think he should/will be in the Hall, AND I am so effing pissed at him for last season. He single-handedly cost the Warriors a trip to the playoffs. Which turned out to to be Klay's last season AND stunted the development of some amazingly talented rookies who could have used that playoff level of play.
I have always defended his passion and his emotion and even his mistakes BUT he is an old-head, gray-beard who should not be making infantile mistakes and doubling down on the "I play the way I play and EFF the league" or the "no regrets" bullshit. I seriously had a fantasy that Draymond could/would be our next Al Attles: fearsome player, extended as a player and PLAYER-COACH, and then coach of the Warriors.
He is talented enough *and smart enough* to do this, but not if he has the impluse control of a middle-schooler. OF COURSE I'm glad that he's here. But man did he fuck it up last year...
> He is talented enough *and smart enough* to do this, but not if he has the impluse control of a middle-schooler.
A fatal flaw in Draymond’s self-assessment (and common among the fanbase) is to place false equivalency between BBIQ and other forms of intelligence (emotional intelligence in particular).
People keep calling Draymond a ‘basketball genius’ (true), and Draymond keeps hearing ‘genius’ (debatable).
Anyone looking forward to the g League invitational? Didn't know this existed but it showed up in my scheduled recordings, and I saw some releases from July saying it is top g League prospects vs Mega from Serbia and will be in Santa Cruz, and apparently JTA is on the roster.
All rookies in NBA since the 1962-63 season with 1100+ minutes of playing time sorted by player efficiency rating: https://stathead.com/tiny/hsS9o
All rookies in NBA since the 1977-78 season with 800+ minutes of playing time sorted by offensive efficiency: https://stathead.com/tiny/y0cRy
All rookies in NBA since the 1973-74 season with 1000+ minutes of playing time sorted by box plus/minus: https://stathead.com/tiny/MwnMu
All players in the NBA (rookies or not) since the 1977-78 season with 1000+ minutes of playing time, a 6%+ block rate, and a 10%+ assists rate: https://stathead.com/tiny/6XGYR
All players in the NBA (rookies or not) since the 1977-78 season with 100+ minutes of playing time, a 6%+ block rate, a 10%+ assists rate, and a turnover rate less than 11.5%: https://stathead.com/tiny/ZnZ3f
The big question to me is whether TJD's ceiling is basically what we saw in his rookie season or whether he can still unlock further upside with expanded range (anywhere and anyway beyond 5 feet), more rebounding effort and awareness, and even better defensive rotations and rim protection. If it is the former, the Warriors still got a second round steal. As shown above, very few players have ever displayed TJD's skill level in passing, shot blocking, and offensive efficieincy in NBA history, much less in their rookie seasons. If it is the latter, both TJD's and Podz's contracts should be among the top ten bargains (and thus among the top 25 most valuable player assets, at least to teams above the cap) over the next three seasons. Two plus rotation players earning less than a combined $6 million next season (less than 4% of the cap) should give the Warriors a significant advantage in roster construction, no matter what direction the team chooses to move in.
The Warriors also hold a team option on Gui Santos for the exact same $2.2 million 2025-26 cap hit as TJD's. And this is one reason I think the Warriors will give Santos every opportunity to earn a rotation spot going into next season. If Santos can somehow also develop into a plus rotation player, this would give the Warriors significant additional flexibility in filling out altering next season's roster via trades or free agency signings. Of course, the Warriors need some of their other player assets (Wiggins, Kuminga, and Moody in particular) to increase their perceived value among other NBA teams to maximize the ability to improve the team with some sort of blockbuster trade.
However, given Dunleavy's 2023 draft history, I would not give up too many future draft assets. Which brings us to Quinten Post ...
I expect Post will leave camp with one of the two-way deals, spend a lot of time in Santa Cruz, and come up to SF periodically to get schooled by the big kids but show the potential to contribute. If his shot is falling, that will work well. More than that would be a delightful bonus.
We hardly ever talk about Lindy Waters III. He was born to be a Warrior; it's in his heritage. He can shoot, he's long, he is a good defender, and nobody will see him coming because they're focused on the better-known players. I'm not sure about a Lindy Waters Island, given he comes from land-locked Norman, OK, but if he has a village or town, I might have to invest. Yeah I know he's way down the depth chart but if there is going to be an open competition in camp, maybe he can put some pressure on for minutes.
I'd rank the young guys probably in the late teens, early twenties. The old guys are top 2-3 conservatively for a cohort for old guys. But the middle prime guys? That's ugly. Maybe bottom 5 in the league.
All NBA players with true shooting percentage over 59.5%, usage over 24%, and more than 800 minutes played sorted by age: https://stathead.com/tiny/g5MBW
Relaxing the usage and true shooting percentage criteria, all NBA players with true shooting percentage over 57.5%, usage over 22%, and more than 800 minutes played sorted by age: https://stathead.com/tiny/VyqG1
All NBA players with under 23 with usage over 24% and more than 1500 minutes played sorted by true shooting percentage: https://stathead.com/tiny/dd5r4
All NBA players with under 23 with usage over 24% and more than 800 minutes played sorted by offensive rating: https://stathead.com/tiny/CL9vo
While Kuminga obviously has significant flaws in his game, especially in terms of rebounding, quick decision making, and fitting in seamlessly to the Warriors' motion offense, statistically he was clearly the second best player on the Warriors' last season roster in terms of offensive productivity and efficiency (with the possible exception of TJD, of course, who was a monster in terms of pure statistical offensive efficiency). While Kuminga's 24.1% usage last season was already quite high (46th in the NBA among players with the same or more minutes, just below Klay's 24.2% usage), I wouldn't mind if this climbed past 27% (only 28 players had usages in 2023-24) this coming season.
Note that Kuminga's offensive rating of 117 and true shooting percentage of 59.8% were much better than Klay's 114 and 57.6% or Wiggins' 112 and 54.4%. More Curry, Kuminga, TJD, and even Moody last season and less Klay and Wiggins would have seemingly gone a long way in improving the Warriors' offensive efficiency. Of course, the Warriors will miss the way that Klay's range stretched defensives, but Klay needed to either play less or be more selective with his shooting last season. And this applied double to Wiggins.
My main concern is JK and staff dealing with the pack-the-paint counters that defenses were using. Need Stotts and Stackhouse to help Kerr mix up some good sets.
Hopefully, they'll give us a good dose of Steph, Buddy, LW3, and... Q-Post. If Wiggs, JK, or Moses can join the Splash party, all the better. Let the other guys pack the paint. I /dare/ them...
He barely beat the 8 second count most of the time, and sometimes did not. Often they started the offense with him with less than 10 on the clock. It’s a remarkable testament to him that he often still found a open shot for someone, but that’s no way to run an offense!
True, but in fairness, Steph does that, too. I'm not even going to hope for Steph to push the pace. He'll do a hit-ahead, but not really run it up the floor.
But there's no reason Podz and Draymond, when he's the ballhander can't push pace.
Podz running the break, Hield running to the three point line, and Kuminga diving to the rim is what I'd like to see us do at any half opening. Substitute Moody, Melton, Hield, TJD, Slomo, GPII in for anyone who needs a blow, and run, run, run.
We have all these more or less equally capable players (any one of which could be the 7th to 12 guys on any given day). Might as well use that depth, and force the defense to make quick decisions. Sure seemed to work against us a lot (being forced into crossmatches by the other team running).
"Los Angeles Clippers C Ivica Zubac has agreed on a three-year, $58.6 million contract extension, Mike Lindeman and Jeff Schwartz of @excelbasketball tell ESPN. Zubac gets max available for his three seasons and now is guaranteed four years and $70M."
So… does anyone have a sense of what our likely starting five is? Seems as wide open as it’s ever been, with Steph the only 100% given, along with *probably* JK and Dray? Lots of interesting permutations thereafter, but somehow each of them feels flawed in one way or another (basically, either undersized or lacking in spacing).
DNHQ should start an “what’s the opening night starting 5” betting pool, lol. Nominally I think our five best players are
Steph
Podz
Wiggs
Kuminga
Green
And that’s also a pretty nice looking unit, except (a) very smol, and Kerr tends to like to start big; and (b) who knows what kind of headspace Wiggs will be in, or if he’s even still on the team come opening night.
Part of me also thinks Dray and Podz should be broken up, since they play pretty similar offensive roles; and with Dray turning 35 this season, now might be a good time for him to move into a ~25 mpg late-career Andre bench role, to keep him spry throughout the season and into the playoffs (cue Jim Mora). But I’m not sure TJD is quite ready or quite big enough to be the full-time starting C.
A consolidation trade along the lines of Wiggs and TJD for Jarrett Allen might simplify things, but who knows if Cleveland or anyone else has any interest in Wiggs.
Basically, it feels like we have a lot of balls still in the air, even if there’s a lot of talent on the roster in the aggregate.
Assuming no extension talks are in the works, I imagine the team will be under a ton of pressure to start, and give front line NBA minutes to Kuminga. I expect to see a lot of JK before Christmas time… so I’m penciling him in. But JK has been so iffy on the wing that even pseudo-engaged Wiggins is the better option. But I also don’t see them wanting to start Dray at the 5 out of the gates, so I’d assume one of TJD or Looney(he’s gonna bounce back, you’ll see!) will be tapped to start out games. So that there is a conundrum. Wiggins, Kuminga, Dray… who starts off on the bench?
If they made that trade for Allen, what do you imagine the starting five would be then? Assuming the idea would be to move Draymond into that Andre bench role, Kuminga would be at the 4, and... Moody at the 3?
Steph-Podz-Moody-Kuminga-Allen? It’s small, and light on shooting, but so is pretty much every combination available to this team at the moment.
Yeah, I’d love that lineup. Allen is legitimately big (like +2 inches of height and +4 inches of wingspan on TJD) so I wouldn’t feel like we were *that* undersized.
Yeah, he measured 6-9 in bare feet at the combine in ‘17 (when he had just turned 19), but is currently listed as 6-11 on BB-Ref, so may have grown a bit? TJD measured 6-8.25 at the combine at age 23, an age after which players don’t typically get a bit bigger.
More importantly: Allen’s wingspan measured 7-5.25 to TJD’s 7-1.
I bet they'd want a lot for him, and they wouldn't take back TJD or Loon because if they're trading Allen it's because they feel they have the 5 covered without him.
Did a quick check of Jarrett Allen’s contract situation and realized he signed an extension in early August so is not eligible for a trade till just before the deadline.
I could kinda see it being advantageous for both teams, tho.
Put a different way: i’d be much more concerned about their willingness to take on Wiggs (who fits them really well in basketball terms but is due 3/$85M on a team that is getting extremely expensive) than about their eagerness to take TJD (whom basically every team in the league would love to have on that contract).
Trayce has one of the best contracts in the league: 3 years / $6.5M — total! — for his age 24-26 seasons. I have no idea if the Cavs have any interest in moving Allen (or any interest in Wiggs) but if they did, TJD seems like pretty ideal big man depth next to Mobley, on a team that’s getting extremely expensive (Mitchell, Garland, Mobley set to pull about $125M combined next season) in a league that now punishes you severely for being profligate.
Who else do they have to cover their minutes at the 5?
Wondering if the Timberwolves also were thinking, who might conceivably have any interest in Wiggins and his inflated contract. And yet soon enough he was gone.
Two things about that. One is, KAT wanted to play with his pal D'Angelo Russell, and we had him, so we were the obvious trade partner. And two, it also cost them the #7 pick, which we used for JK, which is how they were able to dump Wiggs' contract. Plus we sent them some low-value filler that they had to dispense with (Evans, Spellman).
TJD is the biggest player we have. He’s the same height as Slo Mo and Looney and he’s heavier (245 lbs) than either, plus he’s more athletic than either. That said, I don’t know how his wingspan compares.
Should be steph at 1, Wiggins at 2, Kuminga at 3, Draymond at 4, Dale Davis’s kid at the 5
BUT that would throw our million guard rotation into chaos so:
Steph at 1, Melton at 2, Wiggins 3, DG 4, TJD at 5
Rotate Podz at to 2 around 6 minute mark, slide to 1 at the start of 2nd and 3rd quarters, bring in JK with a couple of shooters to space lanes and I still haven’t quite figured what to do with Moody.
I'd take your lineup and put Moody in for Melton. I think Melton is very good but his back issue should be managed carefully and I also think they could stop pairing Curry with small guards so much as he is already going to have a massive load offensively and they need to give him more opportunity to coast at his age to avoid that midseason fatigue that keeps kicking in for him.
> bring in JK with a couple of shooters to space lanes
Gonna be tough with an entire roster of non-shooting 4/5s (sure, barring a Post breakout rookie season).
Am I the only one that would be happy if Post turns into a legitimate NBA player at some point in his career with the Warriors hopefully? My expectations for 2nd round picks are just not that high and that's no dig at Post
Before the season starts we are allowed to have irrational good feelings about our lower second-round picks. And hey, we haven't lost a single game in the '24-'25 season!
Thought I saw something a month ago that the coaches said there are 2 starting spots locked down and the rest is wide open. I had assumed they meant Steph and Draymond, not sure if that was spelled out or not.
Besides Curry and Green, the three remaining spots in the Warriors' starting lineup -- as well as the rotation -- will be considered "wide-open" heading into training camp, sources said.
I was saying this a week or so ago. A lot of positions are open for someone to do something.
I think unless Loon is bad during camp he starts, but not even sure of that. If TJD impresses, Kerr could go with him to start. Draymond's minutes at center are going to be very sparingly used this year, I believe (to protect his health, and because TJD gives us another good option).
SG and SF I think are wide open ... it will probably depend on who impresses in camp and lineup fit. I could see Hield starting, if he holds up well enough on D. Something like Steph, Dray, Hield, Wiggs, Loon. Assuming Wiggs and Loon are back to the form we'd like to see from them, that's a really good offensive lineup (probably poor on D, though).
You know Kuminga wants to start, but he's not going to beat out Dray, so unless he can take that 3 spot, I don't see how it happens.
Does JK need to “kill” or just play even with Wiggs? I’d think if he does, they’ll defer to the future. Plus, they really have to see determine whether they want to give him a huge contract after this season.
Not during the regular season, at least not much. Unless they don't mind killing Green, he cannot play the 5 all year. Time for more TJD and Loon (if he's got enough left in the tank). Love to see QP emerge. The Ws need a bunch of things to go right, but it has happened before (cf. 2022).
When I suggested that perhaps Draymond come off the bench a la Iggy, there was scoffing. I still think it makes sense. Iggy was exceptional at watching the first few minutes of a game and coming in with a plan to provide whatever help was needed from him. Who’s a more ideal candidate to do that? Also, considering that Kerr likes to start bigger (as you noted) and how well the team did when TJD started getting big minutes, I think he has an inside track to start. Finally, I think having two “decision makers” (a term I’ve heard Belilaugh use and like more than “playmaker”) on the court at all times.
What I’d like to see them try:
1. Steph, Podz, Wiggins, Kuminga, TJD start (Steph and Podz making decisions)
2. Melton (for Podz) and Draymond (for either JK or TJD, depending on the situation)
are the first subs in (Steph, Melton and Draymond make decisions)
3. Podz could come back in for Steph, joining Draymond and Melton as decision makers. Kerr could also put Hield and/or Moody in for Melton and/or JK for more spacing). SloMo can come in for whoever is still on the floor between JK or TJD, with Looney coming in if more size is needed.
Starters: SC-BP-AW-JK-TJD
Regular reserves: DM-DG-SloMo-Hield-MM
As needed reserves: Looney, GP2, etc.
This isn’t my prediction as I want to see how training camp goes.
Your starting lineup is pretty interesting. But, I think it would only work if BP was shooting well from 3. Otherwise you have 3 guys (maybe 4, with TJD P&R dives) who really need lanes to go to the rim to be effective.
On the plus side, having both Steph and BP on the court to feed TJD at the rim would be very fun to watch.
Of all the question marks around the young players, Podz shooting well from 3 is the thing I’m probably most confident in. I keep saying feeling obligated to defer to the vets and passing up good looks worked against him. (Uncle Alc said essentially the same thing in his newest video.) Other than Steph or Hield, there isn’t anyone I expect to be a better 3P shooter this season.
One of my favorite performances from JK last year. If we get these type of games on a consistent basis this year from him we'll be in pretty good shape IMO.
Yeah… if we’re getting 4 3PM from him on a consistent basis, he’s an MVP candidate, and we’re a prime championship contender… I’ll be ecstatic if we get it, but I’ll be happy with much less…
I am a little surprised that Steph re-signed early. I figured he would do a LeBron and go year by year for the rest of his career to keep leverage. But as the article points out, this is a huge vote of confidence in the current ownership and leadership.
If he ever did, he could just ask for a trade. It's a no-lose scenario for Curry at this point. I don't think many would blame him for wanting to have chance to compete, and he locked in the extra $$$ on the off-chance he gets injured or falls off a cliff in terms of on-court performance.
Oof, that’s a bit of a rough watch. In roughly the first 8 minutes, Moody gets blown by twice, has somebody hit a step back over him, misses a layup and a jumper, turns it over trying to dump it off on a drive to the basket…
On the bright side he made two passes to cutters while bringing the ball up in transition and finally makes a layup around the 8th minute.
Edit: I guess the positive spin is that the clip is mostly going to show the times when the ball goes in, so we’re less likely to see incredible moody defense leading to a missed shot. It does feel notable that I think most of the misses in the clip belong to Moody.
There's definitely more to like after watching the rest of it. 5 more threes (!), a few good defensive possessions, a few times he gets blown by, a solid drive and a missed jumper. It definitely ends on a better note (moody 3!) than it starts (moody getting blown by).
There are some bright spots, but I agree with SD's take. Of course, they don't put out these highlight packages to showcase the play of guys like Moody...
That's true. Also it's summer run, these guys are there to "work on their game", there's not much reason to be focusing on the defense played imo, even if we had the full tape and not just the scoring highlights where everyone is getting cooked. More interested in Moody's crossover tbh.
Yes, but pickup in the summer usually favors offense more at most runs unless guys like Draymond is present. Players usually work on their defense in individual drills or in smaller workouts
Emily Chang asks Steph why he took "Guard for the Warriors" for "Olympic Gold Medalist" out of his Instagram bio - “I was just proud to be an Olympian.” “You're here forever.” “That's the plan. That's the plan. That's hilarious”
Draymond is definitely a HOFer. Nay-sayers can quibble w the per game stats, but his value is one of the simplest things in the world to explain. You know what’s good to have? A solid starting PG who doubles as an elite screener and the best defensive big man of his generation.
Last year however was really disappointing. The Poole punch really was an awful way to start a title defense season and then last year was just an atrocious display of selfish behavior. He’s getting more erratic w age and that’s a worrying trend.
I know people like the 3P %, but it barely matters. He took 2.3/game. The difference between making 30% and 39.5% is one extra make every 5 games. It certainly helps but it’s not unlocking that much for the offense.
I hope there is a solid, low BS season ahead. It’s really not that hard to avoid trying to fight every Euro in the league. They still need him desperately though this year w Anderson and a more veteran roster that need is quite a bit less than in years past.
The Warriors in '23-24 had an average margin of victory of 2.6 points.
Draymond shooting 39.5% on 2.3 attempts, versus 30.5% on 1.8 attempts, is worth about 0.45 points/game. Setting aside any secondary or cascading effects in how he's guarded because of this (for what it's worth, I feel defenses against him mostly didn't change) his 3-point improvement is worth at least 1/6th of the difference between winning and not.
By comparison, Kuminga upped his free throwing from 65% on 2.1 attempts/game the previous season to 74% on 4 attempts/game, which adds up to a whopping 1.6 additional points scored per game. Improvements by a young player are more expected, so it's less remarkable, but still a pretty big deal.
In short: does Draymond's 3-point shooting improvement matter? Yes.
It’s not fractional. You either make or you miss. It’s not an extra 0.45 PPG. It’s that one extra 3 pointer every 5 or 6 games.
Those points matter that game, but it doesn’t do anything for you in 80% of the games. In large part because like you said, teams still didn’t guard him.
Kuminga increased both free throw attempts and percentage which makes it way more valuable.
I think it's good to note that JK's improvement was "worth" ~4x more than Draymond's. If, say JK went from shooting 64% to 85% on the same number of free throws, he'd only be adding an extra point every other game. So you're pointing to a difference in impact that seems to be accounted for in the ppg difference?
I think you're hitting on a good question though re: which skill improvement would be more valuable (once we normalize for the level of improvement). If JK showed the same kind of improvement in his 3p shooting rather than ft shooting, which is more valuable? It feels like that depends on the specific team context and even game situation, but it sounds like you disagree? What do you think?
I LOVE Draymond, I wear his jersey, I certainly think he should/will be in the Hall, AND I am so effing pissed at him for last season. He single-handedly cost the Warriors a trip to the playoffs. Which turned out to to be Klay's last season AND stunted the development of some amazingly talented rookies who could have used that playoff level of play.
I have always defended his passion and his emotion and even his mistakes BUT he is an old-head, gray-beard who should not be making infantile mistakes and doubling down on the "I play the way I play and EFF the league" or the "no regrets" bullshit. I seriously had a fantasy that Draymond could/would be our next Al Attles: fearsome player, extended as a player and PLAYER-COACH, and then coach of the Warriors.
He is talented enough *and smart enough* to do this, but not if he has the impluse control of a middle-schooler. OF COURSE I'm glad that he's here. But man did he fuck it up last year...
> He is talented enough *and smart enough* to do this, but not if he has the impluse control of a middle-schooler.
A fatal flaw in Draymond’s self-assessment (and common among the fanbase) is to place false equivalency between BBIQ and other forms of intelligence (emotional intelligence in particular).
People keep calling Draymond a ‘basketball genius’ (true), and Draymond keeps hearing ‘genius’ (debatable).
Anyone looking forward to the g League invitational? Didn't know this existed but it showed up in my scheduled recordings, and I saw some releases from July saying it is top g League prospects vs Mega from Serbia and will be in Santa Cruz, and apparently JTA is on the roster.
https://santacruz.gleague.nba.com/news/nba-g-league-united-roster-set-for-nba-g-league-fall-invitational-against-bc-mega-mis
Rational Good Feelings
All rookies in NBA history with 800+ minutes of playing time sorted by win shares per minute: https://stathead.com/tiny/b8WDm
All rookies in NBA history with over 500 points scored sorted by true shooting percentage: https://stathead.com/tiny/yzRle
All rookies in NBA history with over 500 points scored sorted by field goal percentage: https://stathead.com/tiny/4haGC
All rookies in NBA since the 1962-63 season with 1100+ minutes of playing time sorted by player efficiency rating: https://stathead.com/tiny/hsS9o
All rookies in NBA since the 1977-78 season with 800+ minutes of playing time sorted by offensive efficiency: https://stathead.com/tiny/y0cRy
All rookies in NBA since the 1973-74 season with 1000+ minutes of playing time sorted by box plus/minus: https://stathead.com/tiny/MwnMu
All players in the NBA (rookies or not) since the 1977-78 season with 1000+ minutes of playing time, a 6%+ block rate, and a 10%+ assists rate: https://stathead.com/tiny/6XGYR
All players in the NBA (rookies or not) since the 1977-78 season with 100+ minutes of playing time, a 6%+ block rate, a 10%+ assists rate, and a turnover rate less than 11.5%: https://stathead.com/tiny/ZnZ3f
The big question to me is whether TJD's ceiling is basically what we saw in his rookie season or whether he can still unlock further upside with expanded range (anywhere and anyway beyond 5 feet), more rebounding effort and awareness, and even better defensive rotations and rim protection. If it is the former, the Warriors still got a second round steal. As shown above, very few players have ever displayed TJD's skill level in passing, shot blocking, and offensive efficieincy in NBA history, much less in their rookie seasons. If it is the latter, both TJD's and Podz's contracts should be among the top ten bargains (and thus among the top 25 most valuable player assets, at least to teams above the cap) over the next three seasons. Two plus rotation players earning less than a combined $6 million next season (less than 4% of the cap) should give the Warriors a significant advantage in roster construction, no matter what direction the team chooses to move in.
The Warriors also hold a team option on Gui Santos for the exact same $2.2 million 2025-26 cap hit as TJD's. And this is one reason I think the Warriors will give Santos every opportunity to earn a rotation spot going into next season. If Santos can somehow also develop into a plus rotation player, this would give the Warriors significant additional flexibility in filling out altering next season's roster via trades or free agency signings. Of course, the Warriors need some of their other player assets (Wiggins, Kuminga, and Moody in particular) to increase their perceived value among other NBA teams to maximize the ability to improve the team with some sort of blockbuster trade.
However, given Dunleavy's 2023 draft history, I would not give up too many future draft assets. Which brings us to Quinten Post ...
I expect Post will leave camp with one of the two-way deals, spend a lot of time in Santa Cruz, and come up to SF periodically to get schooled by the big kids but show the potential to contribute. If his shot is falling, that will work well. More than that would be a delightful bonus.
I expect he will be an all-star. Reasonable people can disagree.
I want to believe!
Yes. but is he Second or First team All NBA?
Not until his 2nd year in the league. But I can wait.
We hardly ever talk about Lindy Waters III. He was born to be a Warrior; it's in his heritage. He can shoot, he's long, he is a good defender, and nobody will see him coming because they're focused on the better-known players. I'm not sure about a Lindy Waters Island, given he comes from land-locked Norman, OK, but if he has a village or town, I might have to invest. Yeah I know he's way down the depth chart but if there is going to be an open competition in camp, maybe he can put some pressure on for minutes.
https://stathead.com/tiny/SYJcJ
>it's in his heritage.
Wow.
Why wow? His ancestors were a powerful warrior people, famed for long-distance raids ranging from the northern plains to Mexico.
Just breaking our current roster into age groups (<25) /(26-30) (>30)
Where do you rank each group against the Leagues comparative age groups eg Top 20, 15, 10, 5 etc
---
Jonathan Kuminga 21
Brandin Podziemski 21
Reece Beekman 22
Moses Moody 22
Gui Santos 22
Trayce Jackson-Davis 24
---
De'Anthony Melton 26
Daeqwon Plowden 26
Jackson Rowe 27
Lindy Waters III 27
Kevon Looney 28
Pat Spencer 28
Andrew Wiggins 29
---
Kyle Anderson 30
Buddy Hield 31
Gary Payton II 31
Draymond Green 34
Stephen Curry 36
I'd rank the young guys probably in the late teens, early twenties. The old guys are top 2-3 conservatively for a cohort for old guys. But the middle prime guys? That's ugly. Maybe bottom 5 in the league.
As long as we keep Pat Spencer in that middle group we should be fine.
Nah, Jackson Rowe is the straw that stirs this whole cohort’s drink.
Loon really ages like molasses uphill.
He’s the Paul Rudd of the NBA.
Lol. That’s the cool thing about entering the league at age 18-19.
When Jon, Moses, and Brandin are 28, we’ll all be in nursing homes, and Chris Duarte will be 63.
At least we could have a good team to watch and discuss here when we're hanging around in the nursing home unable to go anywhere.
We can tell stories about how Steph dunked on Wemby in the Olympics and kids these days just dont know
Yeah kids these days I tell ya. HEY YOU! Get off my lawn! 😄
I think the Dubs should make dunking on Wemby a tradition. TJD did such a nice job of it last season, after all.
Jackson Rowe? Since when is he on the roster? But presumably Post will be.
Calling it now. We're totally going to get a Warriors-Dallas WCF.
I think we'll see them in the playoffs, if we make it, but most likely in the 3/6 1st round matchup
Remember We Believe! The Mavericks cannot stand up to us in the 1st round! We did it to Dirk, we can do it to Luka.
Well we already did it to Luka (Wiggs specifically) during the last title run so…
All NBA players with true shooting percentage over 59.5%, usage over 24%, and more than 800 minutes played sorted by age: https://stathead.com/tiny/g5MBW
Relaxing the usage and true shooting percentage criteria, all NBA players with true shooting percentage over 57.5%, usage over 22%, and more than 800 minutes played sorted by age: https://stathead.com/tiny/VyqG1
All NBA players with under 23 with usage over 24% and more than 1500 minutes played sorted by true shooting percentage: https://stathead.com/tiny/dd5r4
All NBA players with under 23 with usage over 24% and more than 800 minutes played sorted by offensive rating: https://stathead.com/tiny/CL9vo
While Kuminga obviously has significant flaws in his game, especially in terms of rebounding, quick decision making, and fitting in seamlessly to the Warriors' motion offense, statistically he was clearly the second best player on the Warriors' last season roster in terms of offensive productivity and efficiency (with the possible exception of TJD, of course, who was a monster in terms of pure statistical offensive efficiency). While Kuminga's 24.1% usage last season was already quite high (46th in the NBA among players with the same or more minutes, just below Klay's 24.2% usage), I wouldn't mind if this climbed past 27% (only 28 players had usages in 2023-24) this coming season.
Note that Kuminga's offensive rating of 117 and true shooting percentage of 59.8% were much better than Klay's 114 and 57.6% or Wiggins' 112 and 54.4%. More Curry, Kuminga, TJD, and even Moody last season and less Klay and Wiggins would have seemingly gone a long way in improving the Warriors' offensive efficiency. Of course, the Warriors will miss the way that Klay's range stretched defensives, but Klay needed to either play less or be more selective with his shooting last season. And this applied double to Wiggins.
Nice work!
Jordan Poole 😢
I WANT TO BELIEVE
My main concern is JK and staff dealing with the pack-the-paint counters that defenses were using. Need Stotts and Stackhouse to help Kerr mix up some good sets.
Hopefully, they'll give us a good dose of Steph, Buddy, LW3, and... Q-Post. If Wiggs, JK, or Moses can join the Splash party, all the better. Let the other guys pack the paint. I /dare/ them...
I hope they will also work on pace. We were only 12th in the league last year.
Especially if Podz is the second unit PG, Podz/Kuminga fast breaks is something that should work.
Paul was great for us, but he only intermittently would push it up the floor. I think if Kerr tells Podz to push, he's going to do it.
They already addressed the Pace issue by letting Paul walk. As you note, he’s a pace slayer.
He barely beat the 8 second count most of the time, and sometimes did not. Often they started the offense with him with less than 10 on the clock. It’s a remarkable testament to him that he often still found a open shot for someone, but that’s no way to run an offense!
True, but in fairness, Steph does that, too. I'm not even going to hope for Steph to push the pace. He'll do a hit-ahead, but not really run it up the floor.
But there's no reason Podz and Draymond, when he's the ballhander can't push pace.
Podz running the break, Hield running to the three point line, and Kuminga diving to the rim is what I'd like to see us do at any half opening. Substitute Moody, Melton, Hield, TJD, Slomo, GPII in for anyone who needs a blow, and run, run, run.
We have all these more or less equally capable players (any one of which could be the 7th to 12 guys on any given day). Might as well use that depth, and force the defense to make quick decisions. Sure seemed to work against us a lot (being forced into crossmatches by the other team running).
Sooo Rationally Tempered Feelings?
RTF?
"Grizzlies say GG Jackson II sustained a broken right foot while playing basketball outside of Dallas on Aug. 27 and will undergo surgery."
https://x.com/ShamsCharania/status/1829648505276932391
Ugh. Hopefully he recovers soon enough for the season, hate to see injuries hitting right as players achieve some success.
"Los Angeles Clippers C Ivica Zubac has agreed on a three-year, $58.6 million contract extension, Mike Lindeman and Jeff Schwartz of @excelbasketball tell ESPN. Zubac gets max available for his three seasons and now is guaranteed four years and $70M."
https://x.com/wojespn/status/1829657538603991192
That’s a good deal for the Clips. Zubac is a keeper.
So… does anyone have a sense of what our likely starting five is? Seems as wide open as it’s ever been, with Steph the only 100% given, along with *probably* JK and Dray? Lots of interesting permutations thereafter, but somehow each of them feels flawed in one way or another (basically, either undersized or lacking in spacing).
DNHQ should start an “what’s the opening night starting 5” betting pool, lol. Nominally I think our five best players are
Steph
Podz
Wiggs
Kuminga
Green
And that’s also a pretty nice looking unit, except (a) very smol, and Kerr tends to like to start big; and (b) who knows what kind of headspace Wiggs will be in, or if he’s even still on the team come opening night.
Part of me also thinks Dray and Podz should be broken up, since they play pretty similar offensive roles; and with Dray turning 35 this season, now might be a good time for him to move into a ~25 mpg late-career Andre bench role, to keep him spry throughout the season and into the playoffs (cue Jim Mora). But I’m not sure TJD is quite ready or quite big enough to be the full-time starting C.
A consolidation trade along the lines of Wiggs and TJD for Jarrett Allen might simplify things, but who knows if Cleveland or anyone else has any interest in Wiggs.
Basically, it feels like we have a lot of balls still in the air, even if there’s a lot of talent on the roster in the aggregate.
Assuming no extension talks are in the works, I imagine the team will be under a ton of pressure to start, and give front line NBA minutes to Kuminga. I expect to see a lot of JK before Christmas time… so I’m penciling him in. But JK has been so iffy on the wing that even pseudo-engaged Wiggins is the better option. But I also don’t see them wanting to start Dray at the 5 out of the gates, so I’d assume one of TJD or Looney(he’s gonna bounce back, you’ll see!) will be tapped to start out games. So that there is a conundrum. Wiggins, Kuminga, Dray… who starts off on the bench?
I had the impression the Cavs want to keep Allen. But that’s based on media reports.
If they made that trade for Allen, what do you imagine the starting five would be then? Assuming the idea would be to move Draymond into that Andre bench role, Kuminga would be at the 4, and... Moody at the 3?
Steph-Podz-Moody-Kuminga-Allen? It’s small, and light on shooting, but so is pretty much every combination available to this team at the moment.
> Steph-Podz-Moody-Kuminga-Allen?
Yeah, I’d love that lineup. Allen is legitimately big (like +2 inches of height and +4 inches of wingspan on TJD) so I wouldn’t feel like we were *that* undersized.
Allen is only 6’9 (not counting his hair).
Yeah, he measured 6-9 in bare feet at the combine in ‘17 (when he had just turned 19), but is currently listed as 6-11 on BB-Ref, so may have grown a bit? TJD measured 6-8.25 at the combine at age 23, an age after which players don’t typically get a bit bigger.
More importantly: Allen’s wingspan measured 7-5.25 to TJD’s 7-1.
I bet they'd want a lot for him, and they wouldn't take back TJD or Loon because if they're trading Allen it's because they feel they have the 5 covered without him.
…
Did a quick check of Jarrett Allen’s contract situation and realized he signed an extension in early August so is not eligible for a trade till just before the deadline.
I could kinda see it being advantageous for both teams, tho.
…
Put a different way: i’d be much more concerned about their willingness to take on Wiggs (who fits them really well in basketball terms but is due 3/$85M on a team that is getting extremely expensive) than about their eagerness to take TJD (whom basically every team in the league would love to have on that contract).
Trayce has one of the best contracts in the league: 3 years / $6.5M — total! — for his age 24-26 seasons. I have no idea if the Cavs have any interest in moving Allen (or any interest in Wiggs) but if they did, TJD seems like pretty ideal big man depth next to Mobley, on a team that’s getting extremely expensive (Mitchell, Garland, Mobley set to pull about $125M combined next season) in a league that now punishes you severely for being profligate.
Who else do they have to cover their minutes at the 5?
Wondering if the Timberwolves also were thinking, who might conceivably have any interest in Wiggins and his inflated contract. And yet soon enough he was gone.
Two things about that. One is, KAT wanted to play with his pal D'Angelo Russell, and we had him, so we were the obvious trade partner. And two, it also cost them the #7 pick, which we used for JK, which is how they were able to dump Wiggs' contract. Plus we sent them some low-value filler that they had to dispense with (Evans, Spellman).
TJD is the biggest player we have. He’s the same height as Slo Mo and Looney and he’s heavier (245 lbs) than either, plus he’s more athletic than either. That said, I don’t know how his wingspan compares.
Of course Post is a seven-footer but we’re still waiting for him to be signed.
Should be steph at 1, Wiggins at 2, Kuminga at 3, Draymond at 4, Dale Davis’s kid at the 5
BUT that would throw our million guard rotation into chaos so:
Steph at 1, Melton at 2, Wiggins 3, DG 4, TJD at 5
Rotate Podz at to 2 around 6 minute mark, slide to 1 at the start of 2nd and 3rd quarters, bring in JK with a couple of shooters to space lanes and I still haven’t quite figured what to do with Moody.
I'd take your lineup and put Moody in for Melton. I think Melton is very good but his back issue should be managed carefully and I also think they could stop pairing Curry with small guards so much as he is already going to have a massive load offensively and they need to give him more opportunity to coast at his age to avoid that midseason fatigue that keeps kicking in for him.
> bring in JK with a couple of shooters to space lanes
Gonna be tough with an entire roster of non-shooting 4/5s (sure, barring a Post breakout rookie season).
Am I the only one that would be happy if Post turns into a legitimate NBA player at some point in his career with the Warriors hopefully? My expectations for 2nd round picks are just not that high and that's no dig at Post
Nope. I also think the excitement is perhaps a bit overdone.
Of course, I did exactly the same thing for PBJ. The siren song of a stretch 4/5.
Before the season starts we are allowed to have irrational good feelings about our lower second-round picks. And hey, we haven't lost a single game in the '24-'25 season!
Yeah i can live with that
Thought I saw something a month ago that the coaches said there are 2 starting spots locked down and the rest is wide open. I had assumed they meant Steph and Draymond, not sure if that was spelled out or not.
Found it, this was from Kendra:
Besides Curry and Green, the three remaining spots in the Warriors' starting lineup -- as well as the rotation -- will be considered "wide-open" heading into training camp, sources said.
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/40728352/next-golden-state-warriors-offseason-change
I was saying this a week or so ago. A lot of positions are open for someone to do something.
I think unless Loon is bad during camp he starts, but not even sure of that. If TJD impresses, Kerr could go with him to start. Draymond's minutes at center are going to be very sparingly used this year, I believe (to protect his health, and because TJD gives us another good option).
SG and SF I think are wide open ... it will probably depend on who impresses in camp and lineup fit. I could see Hield starting, if he holds up well enough on D. Something like Steph, Dray, Hield, Wiggs, Loon. Assuming Wiggs and Loon are back to the form we'd like to see from them, that's a really good offensive lineup (probably poor on D, though).
You know Kuminga wants to start, but he's not going to beat out Dray, so unless he can take that 3 spot, I don't see how it happens.
Curry
Melton
Wiggs (unless JK kills in training camp)
Draymond
TJD
Curry
Dray
TJD
Wiggs
JK
Attack.
Does JK need to “kill” or just play even with Wiggs? I’d think if he does, they’ll defer to the future. Plus, they really have to see determine whether they want to give him a huge contract after this season.
Wiggs can be part of the future for some time yet if he’s Good Wiggs. He’s only 29 and an excellent athlete.
If he kills and Wigs is playing good you have to slide Draymond to the 5
Not during the regular season, at least not much. Unless they don't mind killing Green, he cannot play the 5 all year. Time for more TJD and Loon (if he's got enough left in the tank). Love to see QP emerge. The Ws need a bunch of things to go right, but it has happened before (cf. 2022).
He needs to kill to get the starting 3 spot. Kerr’s on record saying JK can’t play SF, so he needs to show a lot to convince him otherwise.
>>> And that’s also a pretty nice looking unit
Why, thank you (blushes)
When I suggested that perhaps Draymond come off the bench a la Iggy, there was scoffing. I still think it makes sense. Iggy was exceptional at watching the first few minutes of a game and coming in with a plan to provide whatever help was needed from him. Who’s a more ideal candidate to do that? Also, considering that Kerr likes to start bigger (as you noted) and how well the team did when TJD started getting big minutes, I think he has an inside track to start. Finally, I think having two “decision makers” (a term I’ve heard Belilaugh use and like more than “playmaker”) on the court at all times.
What I’d like to see them try:
1. Steph, Podz, Wiggins, Kuminga, TJD start (Steph and Podz making decisions)
2. Melton (for Podz) and Draymond (for either JK or TJD, depending on the situation)
are the first subs in (Steph, Melton and Draymond make decisions)
3. Podz could come back in for Steph, joining Draymond and Melton as decision makers. Kerr could also put Hield and/or Moody in for Melton and/or JK for more spacing). SloMo can come in for whoever is still on the floor between JK or TJD, with Looney coming in if more size is needed.
Starters: SC-BP-AW-JK-TJD
Regular reserves: DM-DG-SloMo-Hield-MM
As needed reserves: Looney, GP2, etc.
This isn’t my prediction as I want to see how training camp goes.
I see you selectively left out part of the quote "And that’s also a pretty nice looking unit, except (a) very smol"
Oh, I thought he said “swol”
I thank the universe every day that Gradey was not drafted here
One could only hope that Fitz would not yield to temptation.
That and "The Human Helicopter!" is already taken...
Your starting lineup is pretty interesting. But, I think it would only work if BP was shooting well from 3. Otherwise you have 3 guys (maybe 4, with TJD P&R dives) who really need lanes to go to the rim to be effective.
On the plus side, having both Steph and BP on the court to feed TJD at the rim would be very fun to watch.
Of all the question marks around the young players, Podz shooting well from 3 is the thing I’m probably most confident in. I keep saying feeling obligated to defer to the vets and passing up good looks worked against him. (Uncle Alc said essentially the same thing in his newest video.) Other than Steph or Hield, there isn’t anyone I expect to be a better 3P shooter this season.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QEm1qGC4Q1g
One of my favorite performances from JK last year. If we get these type of games on a consistent basis this year from him we'll be in pretty good shape IMO.
Yeah… if we’re getting 4 3PM from him on a consistent basis, he’s an MVP candidate, and we’re a prime championship contender… I’ll be ecstatic if we get it, but I’ll be happy with much less…
Stephen Curry sees a window of opportunity: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5733599/2024/08/30/stephen-curry-warriors-contract-extension
I am a little surprised that Steph re-signed early. I figured he would do a LeBron and go year by year for the rest of his career to keep leverage. But as the article points out, this is a huge vote of confidence in the current ownership and leadership.
It may be a vote of confidence for ownership and the FO, but it's also a statement that Curry prefers to be a one-team guy. Predictably, I like that.
Let us hope he does not come to regret that faith.
If he ever did, he could just ask for a trade. It's a no-lose scenario for Curry at this point. I don't think many would blame him for wanting to have chance to compete, and he locked in the extra $$$ on the off-chance he gets injured or falls off a cliff in terms of on-court performance.
…and a more definitive window
This extension was reportedly being discussed before that. I think the trade rumors were BS and neither the Dubs nor Steph gave them a thought.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B5KN3qR729M
If you are starving for Warrior-related basketball content, here's Moses Moody playing in pick up runs with high level competition.
He looks lean and spry
Edit: If you are starved of watching Moses Moody playing actual basketball content
Oof, that’s a bit of a rough watch. In roughly the first 8 minutes, Moody gets blown by twice, has somebody hit a step back over him, misses a layup and a jumper, turns it over trying to dump it off on a drive to the basket…
On the bright side he made two passes to cutters while bringing the ball up in transition and finally makes a layup around the 8th minute.
Edit: I guess the positive spin is that the clip is mostly going to show the times when the ball goes in, so we’re less likely to see incredible moody defense leading to a missed shot. It does feel notable that I think most of the misses in the clip belong to Moody.
Should watch the entire thing before making an evaluation imo, for instance you wouldn't have seen this in the first 6 minutes
https://youtu.be/B5KN3qR729M?t=885
There's definitely more to like after watching the rest of it. 5 more threes (!), a few good defensive possessions, a few times he gets blown by, a solid drive and a missed jumper. It definitely ends on a better note (moody 3!) than it starts (moody getting blown by).
Also, watching Chet vs KD is just fun.
still seemed a bit rough to me... granted he's out there w/ a bunch of great players (and Oubre), but pretty much only him and Jalen Green looked bad
There are some bright spots, but I agree with SD's take. Of course, they don't put out these highlight packages to showcase the play of guys like Moody...
> Of course, they don't put out these highlight packages to showcase the play of guys like Moody
12 points (counting by 1s and 2s) and 3 assists on camera seems pretty good for a guy they aren't showcasing, no?
Also TBF it's really hard to stay in front of NBA talent especially in pickup since you're usually left on an island
That's true. Also it's summer run, these guys are there to "work on their game", there's not much reason to be focusing on the defense played imo, even if we had the full tape and not just the scoring highlights where everyone is getting cooked. More interested in Moody's crossover tbh.
isn't defense part of the game?
Yes, but pickup in the summer usually favors offense more at most runs unless guys like Draymond is present. Players usually work on their defense in individual drills or in smaller workouts
Half. The other 90% is mental.
Play him or trade him. #FreeMosesMoody
Draymond still produces like a star when he's on the court. Stay on the fucking court, Draymond.
🤣
SC30:
r/warriors
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20 min. ago
NokCha_
emoji:baylogo:
Emily Chang asks Steph why he took "Guard for the Warriors" for "Olympic Gold Medalist" out of his Instagram bio - “I was just proud to be an Olympian.” “You're here forever.” “That's the plan. That's the plan. That's hilarious”
https://www.reddit.com/r/warriors/comments/1f53x2d/emily_chang_asks_steph_why_he_took_guard_for_the/
How this wasn't obvious to fans is beyond me. The story to me is that him removing warriors guard is a story post Olympics.
Warriors got him to sign the extension. They're gonna make him do this 'til he's 90...
Draymond is definitely a HOFer. Nay-sayers can quibble w the per game stats, but his value is one of the simplest things in the world to explain. You know what’s good to have? A solid starting PG who doubles as an elite screener and the best defensive big man of his generation.
Last year however was really disappointing. The Poole punch really was an awful way to start a title defense season and then last year was just an atrocious display of selfish behavior. He’s getting more erratic w age and that’s a worrying trend.
I know people like the 3P %, but it barely matters. He took 2.3/game. The difference between making 30% and 39.5% is one extra make every 5 games. It certainly helps but it’s not unlocking that much for the offense.
I hope there is a solid, low BS season ahead. It’s really not that hard to avoid trying to fight every Euro in the league. They still need him desperately though this year w Anderson and a more veteran roster that need is quite a bit less than in years past.
The Warriors in '23-24 had an average margin of victory of 2.6 points.
Draymond shooting 39.5% on 2.3 attempts, versus 30.5% on 1.8 attempts, is worth about 0.45 points/game. Setting aside any secondary or cascading effects in how he's guarded because of this (for what it's worth, I feel defenses against him mostly didn't change) his 3-point improvement is worth at least 1/6th of the difference between winning and not.
By comparison, Kuminga upped his free throwing from 65% on 2.1 attempts/game the previous season to 74% on 4 attempts/game, which adds up to a whopping 1.6 additional points scored per game. Improvements by a young player are more expected, so it's less remarkable, but still a pretty big deal.
In short: does Draymond's 3-point shooting improvement matter? Yes.
It’s not fractional. You either make or you miss. It’s not an extra 0.45 PPG. It’s that one extra 3 pointer every 5 or 6 games.
Those points matter that game, but it doesn’t do anything for you in 80% of the games. In large part because like you said, teams still didn’t guard him.
Kuminga increased both free throw attempts and percentage which makes it way more valuable.
I think it's good to note that JK's improvement was "worth" ~4x more than Draymond's. If, say JK went from shooting 64% to 85% on the same number of free throws, he'd only be adding an extra point every other game. So you're pointing to a difference in impact that seems to be accounted for in the ppg difference?
I think you're hitting on a good question though re: which skill improvement would be more valuable (once we normalize for the level of improvement). If JK showed the same kind of improvement in his 3p shooting rather than ft shooting, which is more valuable? It feels like that depends on the specific team context and even game situation, but it sounds like you disagree? What do you think?
If JK upped his 3P volume and percentage to the point where he had to be guarded it’d be the most valuable.
It’d likely lead to more free throws as well.